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Huaxi Securities: Maintain Geely Auto's Buy rating, the new product cycle will increase in volume, price and profit

Release Time:2022-06-16 Topic:Geely Auto Stock Market Reading:96 Navigation:Stock Liao information > Car > Domestic cars > Huaxi Securities: Maintain Geely Auto's Buy rating, the new product cycle will increase in volume, price and profit phone-reading
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Huaxi Securities released a research report saying that it will maintain Geely Auto (00175) has a "buy" rating, and the estimated revenue in 2021-23 is 1100.9/1628.4/197.63 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent It is 8.12/13.42/18.15 billion yuan, and the EPS is 0.83/1.37/1.85 yuan, which is converted according to the exchange rate of RMB and Hong Kong dollars of 1:0.83, which corresponds to the closing price of HK$27.95 on September 6, 2021. PE28/17/13 times.

Event:The company released the August 2021 sales announcement: the total sales volume of automobile wholesales (including Lynk & Co) in a single month was 88,000; the cumulative sales from January to August was 818,000, Completed 53.5% of the annual target of 1.53 million vehicles. Among them: 8,201 new energy vehicles were sold, accounting for 9.3% of the total sales, with a cumulative sales volume of 46,000 vehicles from January to August; export sales of 6,255 vehicles, a cumulative sales volume of 66,000 vehicles from January to August; sales in the Chinese market of 82,000 vehicles, from January to August The cumulative monthly sales volume was 752,000 units.

The main points of Huaxi Securities are as follows:

The Lynk & Co brand lacks cores and disrupts the "Asian plan"

1) The high-end brand Lynk & Co has been disturbed by the lack of cores, and the Asian plan has begun to be implemented. The Lynk & Co brand sold 6,000 units in August, and the cumulative sales from January to August was 132,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.75%. The "European Plan" has been steadily advanced. At present, many batches of new 01PHEVs have been exported to Europe. The shipment volume in August reached 900 vehicles, and the first export shipment to the Asia-Pacific region was achieved. The cumulative shipment volume from January to August reached 5,948 vehicles. Car deliveries to customers in the European market began in June with an innovative subscription model, and 495 have been delivered so far. Continue to explore the international market and attack the "global new high-end brand".

2) Lynk & Co's product pedigree has been continuously improved and contributed incrementally. The all-new seven-seat SUV (Lynk & Co 09) based on the SPA platform is expected to be launched in the fourth quarter, benchmarking the Volvo XC90, Toyota Highlander, Ford Edge, etc. Lynk & Co 02Hatchback, Lynk & Co 05PHEVHalo, Lynk & Co 03+Cyan Custom Edition, Lynk & Co 05+, Lynk & Co 06Shero Powder have been launched one after another, perfecting the product matrix to meet the needs of different users.

Geely brand rebounded month-on-month, orders for Xingyue L exceeded 45,000

1) Geely brand rebounded month-on-month, and orders for the new Emgrand exceeded 10,000. In August, the Geely brand sold 82,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of +1.6%, which was still affected by the lack of cores; the cumulative sales volume from January to August was 686,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. The fourth-generation Emgrand based on the BMA platform has been officially launched. The pre-sale price of the 1.5L-CVT premium model and the 1.5L-CVT flagship model is 87,000 yuan and 92,000 yuan respectively, and the accumulated orders for less than 1 month have exceeded 15,000. The improvement of product competitiveness will drive sales to a higher level.

2) Xingrui's steady-state monthly sales exceeded 10,000, and Xingyue L's orders exceeded 45,000. Xingrui (113,700-152,700 yuan) has a steady monthly sales of over 10,000 units, and its cumulative sales in October exceeded 100,000 units. The Xingyue L was officially launched at the end of July, with a price range of 137,200-185,200 yuan. The whole series is 2.0T+ with luxurious interiors and has a very cost-effective advantage. In August, the sales volume reached 10,000 units, and the cumulative order was 45,000+ units. It has become a popular model. .

Into the era of technology 4.0, the electric intelligent powers the brand to go up

The company acquired Volvo in 2010 andThe successful integration, with the help of Volvo to complete the global R&D and supply supporting system construction, can achieve a steady increase in market share under the industry trend of accelerating the impact of independent brands on joint venture barriers. In the face of the century-old changes in the automotive industry, the company has actively responded. In 2020, the company announced that it will enter the era of technology 4.0. It will start a full-scale construction of vehicles, increase the layout of electric intelligence, and release the user brand "this line". It is expected to use electric intelligence to achieve corner overtaking. , leading the brand to go up again. At the same time, it has deepened cooperation with Volvo Cars, merged the powertrain to form a new company, jointly developed electric intelligent technology, and shared overseas channels to accelerate Lynk & Co.

The new product cycle has increased in both volume, price and profit

The company is ushering in a new round of product cycle. From 2021, the company will accelerate the development of new energy fields. The pace of product development, the first model of SEA's vast architecture, the Krypton 001, is about to be mass-produced, and many models are under development at the same time, and will be launched on the market one after another. Other blockbuster new cars include: Xingyue L (CMA), Lynk & Co 09 (SPA), new Boyue (CMA), and new Emgrand (BMA). The new product cycle and brand are on the rise, and globalization is accelerating at the same time. Under the background of the optimization and concentration of the industry's competitive landscape driven by the electric intelligent revolution, the company is expected to achieve both volume and price increases, and the market share will continue to increase.

Investment suggestion:

In the short term, new models of architecture platforms such as CMA and SEA are expected to start a new round of product cycle, with both volume and price rising and performance repairing High flexibility; in the medium and long term, the electric intelligent revolution will give the company new development opportunities. On the one hand, it can give full play to the advantages of technical hard core. Accelerating the improvement, the sword refers to the international first-tier car companies. In order to better reflect the market value of the company, the segment valuation method is used:

1) Extreme Krypton: It is not yet profitable, and the P/S valuation method is used. It is estimated that the revenue in 2021-23 will be 32/27.5/53.5 billion yuan. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, 8 times the PS in 2022 will be given. The target market value is 220 billion yuan, and the company's shareholding ratio is 48%. The corresponding market value is 105.6 billion yuan;

2) Original business: Using the P/E valuation method, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021-23 will be 83.5/14.92/18.51 billion yuan, giving 20 times the PE in 2022, and the target market value is 298.4 billion yuan Yuan. In summary, the total target market value is 404 billion yuan.

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Responsible editor: Li Shuangshuang

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