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Defensive investment value is outstanding Analysis of investment in food and beverage industry

Release Time:2022-06-15 Topic:Leading stocks in the food and beverage industry Reading:91 Navigation:Stock Liao information > Food > Defensive investment value is outstanding Analysis of investment in food and beverage industry phone-reading

Zhang Dongyun, Tianyi Securities Research Institute

While the broader market re-adjusted sharply on Wednesday and many individual stocks fell sharply during the session, some food and beverage stocks were exceptionally resilient, becoming a bright spot in the weak market. For example, Changyu (Information Market Forum) A, which just announced its first-quarter quarterly results this year, bucked the trend and rose sharply on Wednesday, closing at the daily limit. Tong Wine (Information Market Forum) also had a good performance in intraday trading on Wednesday, especially in the last 10 trading days, the highest intraday gain of the stock was as high as 40%, especially

It has attracted market attention; since the beginning of February this year, Xintian International (Information Market Forum), its stock price trend has been successfully brewing an upward channel, and the highest cumulative stock price increase during this period has exceeded 50%. In addition, the short-term trend of food and beverage stocks such as Shanxi Fenjiu (information market forum) and Wuliangye (information market forum) is also significantly stronger than the broader market. The author believes that the reason why some individual stocks in the food and beverage sector can emerge in the recent weak market is not unrelated to the current relatively good business status of the domestic food and beverage industry and the good development prospects in the future.

Wine: Rapid Development

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, my country's wine production in 2003 and 2004 was 343,000 tons and 393,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.5% and 14.6% respectively, the fastest growth rate in the beverage and wine industry during the same period. Wine species. Despite this, the future development potential of the domestic wine industry is still huge. It is understood that the current annual per capita wine consumption in China is only 0.3 liters, while that of Americans is 12 liters and that of French people is as high as 59 liters. Therefore, from the perspective of per capita wine consumption , the domestic market still has great potential to be tapped. According to the forecast of China Wine Industry Association: by 2010, China's wine production will reach about 800,000 tons, maintaining an average annual growth rate of about 15%. Statistics show that in the past two years, domestic wine production and industry gross profit margins have shown a trend of rapid and synchronous growth, indicating that after nearly 10 years of market cultivation, the industry has entered a stage of rapid development.

From the perspective of the industry development pattern, unlike other food and beverage industries, domestic wine production and sales are relatively concentrated. Among them, Dynasty Wine Group, China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Import and Export Corporation and Yantai Changyu Grape Wine Co., Ltd. are the three major manufacturers of wine in China. The market share of 85%, showing a typical "three-legged" pattern, therefore, this is very conducive to the industry's orderly competition and industry profit concentration. In addition, in recent years, the Chinese government has encouraged consumers to reduce the consumption of liquor from a health perspective and replace it with wine. Therefore, from a policy perspective, the domestic wine industry is more likely to obtain government support, and related enterprises will also benefit from it. .

Liquor: industry tax burden is expected to be reduced

Although from the perspective of market capacity, due to the fact that drinking too much liquor is not good for health, the growth space of domestic liquor production and sales is very limited in the future. , the industry profits have been concentrated to a few large enterprises in the industry, especially since the domestic liquor industry is expected to implement the tax reduction policy, so this will provide potential opportunities for the improvement of the profits of enterprises in the industry. It is reported that the tax policy of the liquor industry will likely be adjusted from the current “combination of ad valorem and specific quantity” to “ad valorem taxation”, that is, it is expected to “cancel specific consumption tax”, thereby reducing the current relative overdose of the domestic liquor industry. heavy tax burden. It can be estimated that if the specific consumption tax of 1 yuan per kilogram of liquor products is cancelled, according to the annual output of liquor of large-scale enterprises in the country in the past two years is about 3.5 million tons, the profit of the whole industry will increase by nearly 3.5 billion yuan, which will have a favorable impact on the liquor industry. will be very significant.

Yellow rice wine: great market potential

Statistics show that in 2004, the sales volume of rice wine in China was about 1.8 million tons, accounting for about 5% of all alcohol consumption.%, but the vast majority of these rice wine sales are mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu, while the sales of rice wine in other provinces and cities across the country are almost blank. Therefore, this indicates that the domestic rice wine market has great potential. In addition, at this stage, the domestic rice wine industry has a relatively high profit margin, and the large-scale production enterprises in the industry have the advantage of good and stable performance growth.

Follow sub-industry leading companies

The author believes that in terms of industry investment strategy, it is recommended to adopt a phased focus strategy on the corresponding individual stocks of leading companies in the wine industry, liquor industry, and rice wine industry in the food and beverage industry. hold. On the one hand, it can be seen from the above that the good fundamentals of the food and beverage sub-sectors such as the wine industry, the liquor industry and the rice wine industry and the promising future development prospects will lay a solid fundamental foundation for the strength of the relevant stocks; As a typical defensive investment variety, under the circumstance that domestic macro-control will likely continue, the relative investment value of food and beverage stocks will be more prominent, which is conducive to the attention of safe-haven funds. Specifically, Tong Wine (600365), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Guyue Longshan (Information Market Forum) (600059) and Wuliangye (000858) are 4 stocks worthy of attention.

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