(Original title: Northbound funds continue to sweep food and beverages and will “slow cattle stocks” come out?)
Every reporter Zhu Wanping
Reply Looking at the A-share market in 2019, the food and beverage sector is undoubtedly one of the "brightest stars".
"The market value of the food and beverage sector has increased significantly in 2019, from 2.3 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year to more than 3.92 trillion yuan at present." An industry analyst revealed to the "Daily Economic News" reporter, However, the overall differentiation of the industry is also serious. Among them, the overall market value of the liquor sector alone exceeds 2.5 trillion yuan. However, investment opportunities such as dairy, condiment, and beer sectors are also worthy of attention.
"People take food as their heaven", the food and beverage industry is one of the most common but also an industry that invests in Changchun. Food and beverage research does not require a professional background such as medicine or chemical industry, but it can contain huge value investment opportunities.
"Where did the incremental capital of A-shares come from in the past two years? Foreign capital is a major source. Foreign capital loves "core assets", and many of the core assets are consumer stocks." A number of institutional sources said . So, how will the food and beverage sector market in 2020 be interpreted? Who will be the next consumer stocks to explode?
▲The growth rate of net profit of major companies in the food and beverage sector in the first three quarters of 2019 (unit: %)
According to wind statistics, in the first three quarters of 2019, among the net profit growth rates of major companies in the A-share food and beverage sector, liquor stocks performed well. Zou Li Charting
The food and beverage sector has risen by more than 70%
In the past two years, the food and beverage industry has been in the A-share market. As of December 26, 2019, the food and beverage index led the industry with an increase of more than 70%. In the past three years, the food and beverage index has increased by more than 100%, the increase is far ahead, and the excess returns are significant.
“In the past two years, the food and beverage industry has performed brilliantly, mainly benefiting from the double-click of Davis: one factor is driven by better performance, represented by the liquor industry; the other factor is driven by the improvement of valuation , with the condiment industry as a typical representative." said an industry analyst.
Wind statistics show that as of December 26, 2019, the market value of the food and beverage sector exceeded 3.92 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 1.6 trillion yuan from 2.3 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year, an increase of more than 70%. Among the 106 stocks in the sector, 85 stocks rose, accounting for about 80%.
However, we must also see the differentiated side of the food and beverage industry. The market value of Kweichow Moutai alone exceeds 1.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 37% of the total market value of the entire sector. In 2019, the market value of Moutai in Kweichow increased by about 700 billion yuan, making a significant contribution. The collective rise of liquor stocks has led to the fact that among the top 10 stocks in the food and beverage industry by market value, liquor has occupied 5 seats. Among them, the first two are the "double heroes of liquor" - Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, followed by Yanghe Co., Ltd., Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which all entered the top ten.
Haitian Flavor has carried the "flag" of the condiment industry with a market value of more than 280 billion yuan, while Yili, Shuanghui Development and Tsingtao Brewery are representatives of the dairy products, meat products and beer industries respectively , successfully ranked among the top ten market capitalization in the food and beverage industry.
While the market value is rising, corporate performance is also improving rapidly. Among the top ten market capitalization companies in the food and beverage industry, there are 8 companies with net profit growth rates above double digits in the first three quarters of 2019. Among them, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu all had a net profit growth rate of more than 30% from January to September 2019. Only Yanghe and Shuanghui Development had a single-digit growth rate of net profit in the same period, 1.6% respectively. and 9.61%.
But this does notIt is not difficult to understand that the A-share ecology has changed a lot. "Now is the era of preference for leading white horse stocks, and this good trend will continue." Some institutional investors told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the increase in A shares mainly comes from foreign capital, and foreign capital prefers white horse stocks. The food and beverage industry is the concentration of white horse stocks, so the phenomenon of the concentration of bull stocks is obvious.
According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, since 2019, northbound funds have been continuously increasing their positions. As of December 25, 2019, the cumulative net purchases exceeded 340 billion yuan, of which the net purchases of Shenzhen Stock Connect exceeded 190 billion yuan. yuan, and the net purchases of Shanghai Stock Connect exceeded 150 billion yuan. In terms of stock market value, Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye and other food and beverage stocks have been "buried" by northbound funds, with a stock market value of over 10 billion yuan.
Analysts say liquor valuations will move up
8 of the 20 best-performing stocks in the food and beverage sector in 2019 They are all liquor stocks, as well as two liquor stocks, Chongqing Beer and Bairun.
Taking a closer look at the liquor sector, the share prices of the two leading players, Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, both performed well, with one nearly doubling and the other up 150%. The excellent performance of the liquor sector is naturally inseparable from the good performance of the liquor sector. "In the first three quarters of 2019, the liquor segment achieved revenue of 183.440 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.34%; net profit attributable to the parent was 63.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.84%, and the segment performance maintained steady growth." Huachuang Securities mentioned in a research report. arrive.
Not long ago, Moutai Group and Wuliangye Group both announced that their sales revenue in 2019 will cross the 100 billion mark, showing outstanding performance. According to the growth target disclosed at the beginning of 2019, Kweichow Moutai is expected to achieve a revenue target of 85 billion yuan, and Wuliangye is also expected to complete the 50 billion yuan revenue plan for alcohol at the beginning of the year.
In addition to the "Baijiu Shuangxiong", Yanghe Co., Ltd., and Luzhou Laojiao, the "Ten Billion Club" of liquor will also add new troops in 2019. "Last year, the revenue of Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing tribute wine did not exceed 10 billion yuan. In 2019, the revenue of these two companies exceeded 10 billion yuan, and there is not much suspense." An industry insider told reporters. In the first three quarters of 2019, the revenue of Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing tribute wine was 9.1 billion yuan and 8.2 billion yuan respectively, one step away from 10 billion yuan.
"In the second half of 2018, after a short period of adjustment in the liquor sector, the performance expectations for 2019 steadily improved and the valuation continued to recover." Fang Zhen, a senior analyst in the food and beverage industry of Huachuang Securities, said that in 2019, Since the third quarter, the sales of the liquor sector have been good, and foreign investment has continued to be allocated. The valuation center of the liquor sector has moved up as a whole, and the overall valuation has stabilized at around 30 times.
By the end of the year, it is basically a foregone conclusion that both the revenue and profit of the liquor industry will increase in 2019. From January to September 2019, the operating income of liquor enterprises above designated size reached 412.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%; the total profit reached 104 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%.
"Today, consumers pay more attention to health than ever before, and drinking good wine has become an irreversible mainstream trend in the future liquor market." Zheng Tianming, co-founder of Gu Xiaojiu, told " A reporter from the Daily Economic News said that the liquor industry is expected to maintain a long economic cycle in the future.
In Fang Zhen's view, "the average growth rate of the industry will slow down in 2020, and it is expected that the valuation level of liquor will drop under normal circumstances. The stronger the brand power, the higher the foreign attention is. The higher the valuation stability. In terms of global benchmarking, the leading trend of foreign investment in long-term allocation will not change, and China's brand equity value advantage is still outstanding."
The excess return of the condiment industry is obvious
"Except for the liquor sector, which has attracted the most attention, the performance of the condiment industry can be said to be as good as that of the liquor industry." An industry analyst told reporters that Haitian Flavor has risen by 50% since 2019, and its market value has risen by 50%. It has increased by about 100 billion yuan. Although it cannot be compared with Kweichow Moutai, the market value of Haitian Flavor has exceeded 280 billion yuan.
"The excess returns of liquor and condiments are the most obvious, with the sub-industry indices increasing by 197% and 120% respectively since 2017." In early December 2019, Everbright Securities stated in a research report, Since 2017, a total of 15 stocks have achieved excess returns compared to the Food and Beverage Index. The top three gainers are Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu and Haitian Flavor, with cumulative gains of 296%, 293% and 292% respectively.
Condiments are a must-have consumer segment. In the current economic environment, the condiment sector has outstanding defensiveness and certainty of growth, and is enjoying the resulting valuation premium. "Since 2014, the average growth rate of the overall revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of condiment listed companies has been 12% and 26%, which is far better than the performance of meat products, dairy products and beer in the same period." According to industry insiders, the increase in the valuation of the condiment sector is mainly due to its stable and sustainable growth capability.
"Benefiting from the rapid growth of the catering and takeaway industry, the diversification of categories and the increase in penetration rate, and the rise in volume and price brought about by the upgrade of product structure, the scale of my country's condiment industry is expected to reach 539.2 billion yuan in 2022. In the future 5 In 2018, the compound growth rate of the seasoning industry's revenue is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 10%." Fang Zhen analyzed.
In the field of seasonings, more subdivided compound seasonings seem to be more optimistic. "In 2018, the market size of compound seasonings was 109.1 billion yuan, and the industry scale will reach 148.8 billion yuan in 2020; and hot pot condiments are one of the fastest-growing segments." Southwest Securities said in a research report.
"From 2010 to 2015, the market size of my country's hot pot base material increased from 5.9 billion yuan to 12.5 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.2%." The annual compound annual growth rate of the hot pot base material industry will still reach 15.3%. By 2020, the market size of my country's hot pot base material will reach 25.5 billion yuan.
In the capital market, Tianwei Foods, known as the "first stock of hot pot ingredients" in A-shares, has seen its share price rise by more than 120% since 2019. The stock price of Yihai International, a hot pot base manufacturer backed by Haidilao, rose more than 130%. Zhang Yong, the founder of Haidilao, once became the richest man in Singapore by virtue of the sharp rise in the share price of Haidilao.
The industry leader has significant allocation value
At present, the dairy industry has entered a "duopoly" competition pattern. Yili and Mengniu's two "twin stars" combined market The share is about 60%. In particular, Yili, the industry's "boss", ranks among the top in the Asian dairy industry in terms of revenue, net profit, comprehensive market share, and consumer penetration.
"Although the dairy industry has entered a mature stage, we believe that room temperature milk can still maintain growth in the next 2 to 3 years." An industry insider believes that on the one hand, the per capita consumption of milk drinks still has a considerable increase space, especially the increase in per capita consumption in the low-tier market and the development of sub-categories; on the other hand, the leading enterprises are strong and strong, and their share is constantly increasing.
"At present, my country's dairy industry still has great potential. From the perspective of per capita consumption, there are obvious opportunities for improvement in liquid milk, yogurt, plant-based milk drinks, ice cream and cheese." Industrial Securities believes that , Benchmarking countries such as Japan, combined with product structure upgrade opportunities, the above categories all have more than 2 times the growth space, and lower-tier cities contribute better growth rate.
Currently, the dairy industry is "big fish eats small fish". Taking the two leading players as an example, in the first three quarters of 2019, Yili’s room temperature milk market share was 38%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year, while the growth rate of Mengniu’s major single products in the third quarter also accelerated compared to the first half of the year. .
"The leader in the dairy industry has significant allocation value." According to industry analysts, as of December 26, 2019, among the 11 A-share listed dairy companies, Yili and Bright Dairy were respectively It rose by more than 30% and 40%, ranking the forefront of the industry's share price gains. In the first three quarters of 2019, the net profit growth rate of the two leading companies was also double-digit.
In the opinion of analysts, in addition to the dairy product leaders, other sub-industry leaders also have certain configuration value.