1. Overview of the A-share “Eat and Drink” theme sector market overview
Today (2.25) the “Eat and Drink” theme sector rebounded, reflecting the overall market situation of “Eat and Drink”— — The CSI Food Segment Index closed up 1.22%.
In terms of sub-sectors of the index, mass consumer goods led the gains. Fuling mustard, which announced its annual results after the market yesterday (2.24), closed up 9.98%, and its total operating income in 2021 was year-on-year. In 2020, it will increase by 10.82%, the net profit will decrease by 4.53% year-on-year, the basic EPS will be 0.87 yuan, and the weighted average ROE will be 12.52%.
Most liquor stocks were in the red, condiments and food stocks rose, and some dairy and soft drink leaders fell.
Specifically, today's "Eat and Drink" themed sector leading stocks include: "Condiment Leader"Zhongju Gao Xin rose 4.97%, > "Essence, Cocktail Faucet" Bairun shares rose 4.40%, " Monosodium glutamate, bio-fermentation leader" Meihua Bio rose 4.37%, "Fan leader"Shuangta Foods rose 3.93%, and “Natural Beverage Faucet”/Chengde Lulu, which produces “Lulu” brand almond dew, rose 3.89%.
【Food ETF ( 515710 ) constituents 2.25 Leading the way]
Food ETF (515710) In terms of weighted sectors:
Liquor: Kweichow Moutai rose 1.98%, Bing approached the 1800 yuan mark, Wuliangye rose 0.95%, Luzhou Laojiao rose 1.68%
Dairy & Seasoning: Yili shares edged down 0.02%, Haitian Flavor up 1.97%
Beer: Qingdao Beer rose 0.42%, Chongqing Beer rose 1.16%
【Food ETF ( 515710 ) Top 10 heavyweight stocks up and down 2.25 ]
The time has been extended. In the 17 years since the base date of the Food ETF (515710) (China Securities Subdivision Food and Beverage Index) in 2005, there have been 12 annual rises, although 2021 closed down, In 17 years, the index still increased by 32.24 times! (As of 2021.12.31)
2. Trading of Food ETF (515710) p>
The Food ETF (515710), which focuses on the theme of "eating and drinking", closed up 0.99%, with the full-day turnover shrinking to 16.19 million yuan compared with the previous trading day.
According to public data, there are 50 constituent stocks of Food ETF (515710), and about 60% of the positions are in liquor. Popular products accounted for 40%. Comparison of the 50 constituent stocks Balanced and pure focusing on the leading stocks in several major consumer segments such as liquor, dairy, seasoning, beer, and food integration, with a relatively distinctive strong> National Food and Drink Rigid Need Concept Investment Logic, Tool Properties and Long-term Growth Characteristics.
III. Analysis of Fuling mustard's performance in 2021: revenue accelerated month-on-month and profit margin improved significantly
Fuling mustard achieves revenue of 2.519 billion yuan in 2021 , an increase of 10.82% year-on-year; achieved a net profit of 742 million yuan attributable to the parent, a year-on-year increase of -4.53%; a net profit of 694 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of -8.50%.
Why the year-on-year profit has a negative year-on-year growth, but the stock price has risen sharply today?
In fact, the company achieved revenue of 563 million yuan in 2021Q4, a year-on-year increase of 18.74%; a net profit attributable to the parent of 238 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.74%; The net profit returned to the parent company was 209 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.39%.
Fan Jinsong of Zhongtai Securities believes that the revenue growth of Fuling mustard accelerated month-on-month, and the effect of price increase was obvious. The company's revenue in Q4 increased by 18.74% year-on-year, which was a significant acceleration from the 8.73% in the first three quarters, which is rare given the high base in 2020Q4.
Mainly: (1) According to the announcement, the company adjusted the ex-factory prices of some products on November 12, and the increase range for each category ranged from 3% to 19%, which is expected to drive the average price in Q4 significantly. (2) The effect of the company's aerial advertising in the first three quarters gradually appeared, driving sales growth; (3) The company's low-salt new products were launched, which also contributed to part of the sales growth. Looking ahead to 2022, price increases will continue to drive the company's top line.
Fourth, the latest investment strategy on the theme of "Eat and Drink" by authoritative institutions
New Fortune Food and Beverage Industry Fifth First Dong Guangyang spoke on February 23, thinking that The performance of liquor is determined, and food is strategically placed at the bottom. After the valuation fell, it was time for the allocation. Baijiu started Q4 with momentum, and the performance drive was still determined. The food sector consolidated its bottom in the fourth quarter. Although it is hard to say that it has improved in the short term, it will gradually recover from lows and highs around 2022.
5. Kweichow Moutai returns to the top spot in publicly offered funds
According to China Securities Investment's 2021 fourth quarter active equity fund (common stock) According to the analysis data, the allocation ratio of the food and beverage industry in the active equity fund is still as high as 13.9%, a month-on-month change of 0.1pct, and the over-allocation ratio is 4.9%.
The total market value of Kweichow Moutai's shareholding surpassed that of CATL, ranking first again.
6. "New Fortune 5 Consecutive Champions" Dong Guangyang: The valuation of liquor has fallen, and the sector has By the time of the layout
The valuation of the "food and drink theme" sector has dropped recently, and many institutions are once again optimistic about the cost-effectiveness of the layout.
"New Fortune 5 consecutive championships", Dong Guangyang of Huachuang Securities believes that the valuation of the liquor sector has fallen, supported by a strong start, and the sector is at the time of layout. In the short term, although the epidemic situation is repeated, the impact tends to be passivated. There is still a high degree of certainty that wine companies will start well, and their performance will still be supported. The recent decline in the valuation of the sector has brought a good opportunity for layout.
Shenwan HongyuanFood and Beverage Chief Lv Chang believes that from the perspective of the whole year, the current valuation of top liquor companies is already cost-effective, and it is recommended to gradually increase the allocation.
Recent Institutional Views at a Glance
1 , Zhang Xia, Chief Strategy Officer of China Merchants Securities: Mao Index will be internally differentiated in 2022, but the overall performance will be better than 2021 In the Forecast, it is believed that in 2021, the leading indicators of consumption, medicine and other Mao indexes will perform poorly, and "new energy Mao" will perform better.
2 , Guosen Securities "Food and Beverage Industry Investment Strategy in 2022"
The boom cycle of liquor continues, and food is dark Past: Food & Beverage will drop by 1.64% in 2021, ranking low in performance, with a significant correction in valuation. Looking forward to 2022, it is expected that several influencing factors will weaken marginally, and demand recovery may become the main theme.
3 , Zhongtai Securities Fan Jinsong
With the normalization of the epidemic, the marginal impact of the epidemic on the production and sales of food and beverages will become smaller and smaller. Since the third quarter of 2021, food and beverage prices have ushered in a wave of price increases. In 2022, food and beverage prices and inventories are expected to enter a double upward cycle, and actively pay attention to profit release!
4 , Chen Xianshun, Chief Strategy Officer of Guotai Junan See Yueming - 2021 A-Share Market Summary"
In the future industry allocation, the main line of "volume shrinkage" turns to "price recovery", low valuation + profit reversal logic The strongest is mass consumer goods, which is the main line of core configuration, with both high win rates and high odds, and the competition pattern of liquor/dairy products/condiments is improving.
New Wealth Strategy Analyst, Tianfeng Securities Liu Chenming also believes that one of the future allocation ideas is to reverse the direction of the dilemma that does not depend on policies, such as the reversal of the cost dilemma. Required food (PPI-CPI inflection point).
Important news on rebalancing! The semi-annual rebalancing of the underlying index (China Securities Subdivision Food Index) of Food ETF (515710) focusing on the theme of "eating and drinking" has taken effect on December 13, 2021, with 4 in 4 out of constituent stocks , the total number of 50 constituent stocks remains unchanged. Xinna "Beverage Mao" Dongpeng Beverage, "Baking Mao" Ligao Foods, "Natural Cream Seasoning Faucet" Jiahe Foods, As well as Nanqiao Foods, the average market value of the newly included 4 constituent stocks is 30.1 billion yuan, and the total weight is estimated to reach 3%.
Food ETF (515710) shows strong resilience in late 2021 rally.
Since the low point in September 2021, as of December 10, 2021, the food ETF (515710) has ushered in a rebound, with a cumulative increase of up to 23%.
Since September 2021, the food faucet price increase wave has hit, and the prices of "Seasoning Mao" Haitian Flavor, "Zhu Mao" Fuling Mustard, etc. have increased. Mainstream ETFs focusing on eating and drinking - Food ETF (515710) ushered in the first wave of rebound, with an increase of 16.20% in 13 trading days (2021.9.16-2021.10.13);
Then liquor stocks continued to increase in price, the ex-factory price of the eighth generation Wuliangye increased by nearly 9%, and Luzhou Laojiao, Shede and others raised prices one after another, Food ETF (515710) The second wave of rebound market broke out. In the rebound market from September to the end of 2021, Food ETF (515710) The cumulative increase was as high as 23% (2021.9.16-2021.12 .10)!
【How to control food and drink Investment opportunities in various segments of the sector? ]
Hu Jie, general manager of Hwabao Fund Index R&D and Investment Department, believes that: the recent equity market has changed rapidly, and timing is relatively difficult. However, the food and drink sector is a sector with "long slopes and thick snow", which has performed well for a long time and has significant configuration value.
Through fixed investment to reduce costs, buy in batches, and accumulate chips, as long as the index rises for a long time, there is a high probability that you can achieve your target income.
According to public data, 40% of the food ETF (515710) positions are placed in food leaders, and about 60% of the positions are placed in liquor, and the 50 constituent stocks are relatively balanced and pureFocusing on leading stocks in several major consumer segments such as liquor, dairy, seasoning, beer, and food integration, with a relatively distinct investment logic for the concept of the concept of national food and drink just need , Tool Properties, and Long-Term Growth Traits.
Investors who are accustomed to over-the-counter redemption can also sell on mainstream platforms such as Tiantian Fund, Alipay, Tencent Wealth Management, etc. The OTC "twin brother" of subscribing and investing in food ETFs -- Hwabao CSI subdivision food ETF joint fund, Class A share code 012548, Class C share code 012549. Fried C", you can buy it at a minimum of 10 yuan, which is convenient and efficient.
From the perspective of investment thresholds, the leading stocks in the "food and drink sector" (especially liquor stocks) are generally more expensive, and the first-hand "True Mao" Kweichow Moutai exceeds 200,000 yuan. Food ETF (515710) is only 92 yuan per lot (calculated at the closing price of 12.17), and there is no stamp duty for ETF sales (1‰ for stocks) .
[Food ETF (515710) List of Top 10 Heavy Holding Stocks of the Underlying Index (China Securities Subdivision Food Index) ] p>
Risk Warning: Food ETFs track and replicate the CSI subdivided food and beverage industry thematic index, the index base date is 2004.12.31, released The date is 2012.4.11. The composition of the index constituents is adjusted in time according to the index compilation rules, and the historical performance of the back-test does not indicate the future performance of the index. The Fund is issued and managed by Huabao Fund, and the agency does not assume the responsibility for product investment, redemption and risk management. Investors should carefully read the Fund Contract, Prospectus, Summary of Fund Product Information and other fund legal documents, understand the risk and return characteristics of the fund, and choose products that are compatible with their own risk tolerance. The past performance of the fund does not indicate its future performance, and the fund investment needs to be cautious! The sales agencies (including the direct sales agencies of the fund manager and other sales agencies) conduct risk assessments of the Fund in accordance with relevant laws and regulations. Investors should pay attention to the suitability opinions issued by the fund managers in a timely manner. And the fund product risk level evaluation result issued by the fund sales agency shall not be lower than the risk level evaluation result made by the fund manager. There are differences in the characteristics of the risk and return of the fund and the risk level of the fund in the fund contract due to different considerations. Investors should understand the risk and return of the fund, choose fund products carefully and take risks by themselves in light of their own investment objectives, duration, investment experience and risk tolerance. The registration of the Fund by the China Securities Regulatory Commission does not indicate that it has made substantive judgments or guarantees on the investment value, market prospects and returns of the Fund.. Fund investment needs to be cautious.