How important is mentality to stock trading?
A good or bad attitude is the cornerstone of business success. It is also an early stage of successful stock trading. This precedes technology. Every stock speculator has a good psychological quality, because the superb technology is the result of constant careful observation and scientific summary. It requires people to be careful, patient, persistent, and to constantly face setbacks and failures. Without a good psychological quality, you can't learn superb technology at all. Has anyone seen a person with poor quality but superb skills and long-term success. One or two lucky successes will only hasten the total failure of a low-quality person.
The quality of technology is how much correct objective knowledge you know, and the quality of mentality is how much knowledge can be brought into play when applied. The learning of technology requires good psychological quality, and the development of technology also requires good psychological quality.
"If the stockholders' friends go up as soon as they buy, the stock holdings are always more than enough, and there is a choice between selling or not selling, who can be in a bad mood." This is called a good mood, and some People, when they happen to do a good job in a stock, become complacent, arrogant and blindly optimistic, which is a poor psychological quality.
The same quilt covers 10% of the people who have different mental qualities. The difference is very big, some are calm, some are in a mess, and they can't think and judge normally.
So speculating in stocks is speculating on hearts. No matter how skilled a person is, no matter how lucky a person is in the stock market, mistakes in judgment and setbacks are common occurrences. The stock market is always a new challenge for everyone. The stock market needs both intelligence and emotional intelligence.
There are three major components of stock trading: stock technology (including technical analysis and fundamental analysis), money management, mind control and discipline.
Mindset is a bottleneck that can limit the effectiveness of your stock technique and money management. To give a simple example: walking on a 30-centimeter plank, 10 meters is a skill that everyone has. When the plank is 20 meters away from the ground, everyone can easily walk over it, but if the plank is 30 meters away from the ground, I am afraid Few people can walk past, this is the relationship between technology and mentality. In addition, the pressure of doing other jobs is often motivated, but the pressure of doing stocks is often counterproductive. Also, except for a few people who are born with stronger psychological qualities, most people have developed their skills, mentality, and discipline. Hone the word is very vivid. In the transaction and analysis, I constantly debate, compete, conflict, persuade, restrain myself, and gradually strengthen the self-control ability, but there are also a few people who collapse. It may take 100 times to practice technique, and 500 times to practice mentality and discipline. It may take 4 years to practice techniques, and 10 years to practice mentality and discipline.
Respect the market, position yourself, control risks, and follow the trend. Easier said than done.
If the level is really not good, you can't understand it, don't do it, don't force yourself, we are humans, not gods!
A master trader must have two abilities at the same time:
One is good at grasping the opportunity and aiming at the target
The other is strong and good self-discipline.
The importance of timing is that it determines whether you can make money in the market! But unfortunately, you can't get it right every time. Sometimes you trade at the wrong price, sometimes the market changes suddenly more than you can imagine, and sometimes you just make a suicide charge after covering your head. At this time, only Self-discipline can get you out of dangerous places.
I remember a master trader said:
Poor losers, first of all, they got caught in troublesome trades because of the wrong timing, and then they fell into trouble because of lack of self-discipline. To the abyss of doom!
It's not terrible to be wrong, it's the lack of moderation and self-deception that is terrible. To make a transaction, you must have the ability to do it again, including capital, confidence and opportunity. All this is very simple, but you need to make her your habit. Respect the cityfield, follow the rules without it! That's all! ! !
Time-sharing chart analysis of stock starting point
For stocks with relatively sufficient main force to open positions, when the main force pulls up the start-up stock price, there will always be some traces of one kind or another on the time-sharing trend chart. Small and medium investors only need to find the main force in the intraday. The anchors follow up decisively, and they will be able to obtain their own profits. There are often the following five types of anchor points in the time-sharing trend chart to seize the main starting point:
1. Double Dragons Fly Together
This is the basis for selecting strong stocks in the time-sharing chart Factors are also one of the main characteristics of daily limit stocks, and they are the secrets that must be mastered in disk language. "Double dragons flying together" means that the white time-sharing line and the yellow average price line in the time-sharing chart rise in the same direction at the same time, and the time-sharing line does not easily cross the average price line during the callback process, which is basically a very strong one. Stocks, then basically the price limit will rise immediately after 2 callbacks. The graph of "Double Dragons Flying Together" is very useful in actual combat. Whether a stock can become a strong stock, the daily limit stocks must basically have the characteristics of "Double Dragons Flying Together". Performance.
Second, the peak of the sky:
"The peak of the sky" is a It is a very typical rising characteristic of strong stocks, it is a clear signal of the main force pulling up, and it is a signal light for the stock price to take off. Investors who often look at the market will definitely have this understanding. Those stocks with daily limit or rapid rise in the short term will have abnormal trading volume at the moment when they launch the general attack. Usually, the trading volume is only a few dozen lots. Once the stock began to rise rapidly, the trading volume immediately increased several times or even dozens of times, and the sudden large transaction made us all realize that the main force began to lift, leaving a root in the time-sharing chart. The volume line, we call it "top-day volume peak", is a sign that the stock price is about to rise rapidly, and it is a signal. Usually, the larger the volume peak, the greater the strength and possibility of the stock price rising.
"Peak of the sky" is a way for us to judge whether a stock is strong and whether it can become a dark horse in the short term The key factor, because in the case of the market is extremely sluggish and the market environment is bad, the graphics may not be so perfect, but the main force can make a "top volume peak" at any time and in any situation. It can be said that volume is the root of price. , Without the change of volume, the price is difficult to be controlled.
"Crossover" is the signal that the stock price breaks through and is the key factor for the formation of the first rising point. In the graphics, it is common to see a time-sharing line crossed by a cross line. The upper and lower lines of the cross line and the bottom peak of the sky coincide. In fact, this point is the position where the stock price breaks through a new high. In the market analysis, this kind of price breakthrough The point must be heavy. The main force is to use the breakthrough of this technical form to make a strong upward attack to attract more followers. This may be a point that is particularly emphasized in many technical analysis. The main force is not random. Yes, the rules that everyone abides by is the best tool for the main force to achieve its purpose.
4. Post-measurement and pre-measurement
“Post-measurement pre-measurement” is The strength of the main force is the driving force for the stock price to rise. The analysis method of trading volume changes can not only be used on daily charts, but also on weekly and time-sharing charts. The bottom seen above is often the mid-term bottom, and the subsequent upward trend may last for a month or a few months, while the bottom on the time-sharing chart can only be supported for more than ten hours. To continuously hit new highs, in order to attract more followers, he must make the stock price rise perfectly, so the basic volume and price coordination must be satisfied. For example, the volume of the new high must be greater than the volume of the previous high. Seeing the price after the volume shows that the stock price will continue to rise. Based on this, the main force is in the market. When the stock price breaks through the previous high point, a large order will be placed to make the trading volume larger than the previous high point trading volume. This is a good cooperation between volume and price. Only in this way will more people be attracted to come in. In the strong tactics, time-sharing chart stock selection pays special attention to the changes in trading volume. The most classic method of volume analysis is “the latter volume over the former volume”.
5. Black Hole of Retail Investors:
"Black Hole of retail investors" Game is a breakthrough to see the essence of the main force. At the beginning of the main force pulling the stock, no one knows that the main force is going to pull up, although many handicap experts may be particularly sensitive, butWhen the stock price and trading volume do not show obvious performance, not many people will follow the trend. When the main force completes the first upside, it is only a very common small upside. At this time, the fundamental purpose is to It is exposed in the market and attracts more people's attention. If you do not rest and continue to attack at this time, many people will be discouraged, then the main force must stop here. Because the increase in trading volume is the main force, once the main force stops, The trading volume level of the market will immediately drop and return to the retail level, and the price will also be adjusted due to the absence of the main buy order. At this time, a concave part appears in the trading volume in the time-sharing chart, and the main force uses One's own chips dived sharply, sold and bought, to test the amount of floating chips in the market and whether they were washed or not. This is the "black hole of retail investors". One of the elements of a point.
In short, investors take full advantage of their small amount of capital, flexible intraday operations, and quick position opening , In response to the ins and outs of the main force, it is also very comfortable to be bold and careful when the main force pulls up the stock price and let the main force lift a sedan chair. Pay attention to the backhand shorting of the main force in the later period.
A very effective MACD formula - if you will not die, you will inevitably rise; if you will not be gold, you will definitely liquidate your position
Look at the MACD chart, when the stock price is getting more and more When the price is higher, the pile of red columns is getting smaller and smaller, which proves that there is a top deviation phenomenon, and it should be sold in time; when the stock price is getting lower and lower, the pile of green columns is getting smaller and smaller, which proves that there is a bottom. Divergence, should buy. The buying point is in the green heap hour, and one is shorter than the other, that is to say, it is bought when the foot shrinks. When the red pile is small and one red column is shorter than the other, it is called shrinking and selling.
There are mainly two situations:
1. The column line draws the foot
The MACD column line is below the 0 axis. During the stock price decline, the column line It tends to diverge downwards. When the green column of falling kinetic energy reaches the maximum, and the column on the second day is shorter than the previous day, it is the phenomenon of "pulling feet", indicating that the downward momentum of the market has weakened. As shown in the figure below:
The foot pumping operation is generally divided into two situations, one is the stock price in the bull market Foot pumping, one is a bear market. Due to its strong certainty, the bull market is more worthy of attention, and the success rate is also higher, as shown in the figure above. Taking a foot in a bull market can be used as a buying point or as an opportunity to cover a short position. It is a buying opportunity with low risk and high reward! In the bear market, a kick can only indicate a stop. Everyone knows that stop and rise are completely two concepts. If the volume can not be well matched, the demand for a second drop cannot be ruled out.
Second, the column line shrinks
The MACD column line is above the 0 axis, In the upward trend, the red column will continue to diverge and upward above the 0-axis. When the red column reaches the longest, the subsequent columns will shorten in turn, so that the "shrinking head" of the red column occurs, indicating that the short-term upward momentum of the market has weakened. Is a short-term band to lighten up the signal.
There are also two situations when the red column shrinks as the buying and selling point:
First, in the bull market, if the bull market shrinks in the process of increasing the volume, the market will If there is no obvious sign of downward adjustment, you must hold shares. If the market breaks down, you should consider reducing your positions. If it occurs in the process of shrinking and rising, you should pay attention to reducing your positions and controlling risks.
It should also be noted that: when the market changes from red column to green column divergence, pay attention to clearing positions and wait and see.
Volume-price relationship stock selection
1. Volume Increase price level
Volume increase price level mainly refers to a phenomenon of volume-price coordination in which the stock price of an individual stock (or the broader market) fluctuates almost at a certain price level when the trading volume increases. This phenomenon can occur in both uptrends and downtrends.
When the stock price is in the high price range after a long period of rise, the trading volume gradually increases, but the stock price does not rise accordingly. This trend indicates that there may be a main force selling quietly at a high level. When the volume increases and the price level is a trend reversal signal. Investors should be alert to the risk of falling from high levels and need to operate cautiously.
When the stock price is in the low price range after a long period of decline, the trading volume gradually increases, but the stock price does not rise synchronously. This trend indicates that there may be new funds secretly in the process of suppression. Jiancang. Once the trading volume gradually increases, the stock price is relatively stableThe steady phenomenon indicates that the stock price has accumulated upward momentum at the bottom. It is a relatively obvious signal of turning positive, and it is also an excellent buy signal for the combination of volume and price.
Dip-hunting skills diagram:
1. "Spring cold pours back". This K-line pattern means that the stock price continues to fall, and a positive line appears after receiving four or five medium and large Yin lines at a low level, but it is immediately engulfed by a medium and large Yin line the next day, but the deviation rate on the 5th deviates from the trend. This trend suggests that the stock price has reached the bottom, and if it opens higher and moves higher on the second day, it will be a good opportunity to buy low.
2. "Gu Ying Chu Lian". The stock price accelerated downwards, pulling the middle and long Yinxian at the low level. The outflow of panic plate led to the final gap and pulled out the medium and large Yinxian. However, the general trend turned sharply higher the next day, and jumped directly to the opening price of the previous day. On the opening day, although it is possible to find a low level in the intraday, the closing price is still above the opening price of the previous day, leaving a large Yin line with no K line before and after. If it is confirmed before the closing, it is a better low. Suction point, the market outlook will rise rapidly.
3. "Pig cage into water". The pig cage entering the water refers to the violent pull-up of individual stocks after the collection at a low level. After forming a spire at a high level, the unilateral downward movement does not do the confirmation action of the head. When it is close to the 60-day or 150-day moving average, it goes down with a medium Yin line. Breakthrough, the trend is scary, but there is a clear deviation in the deviation rate on the 5th, which is the best buying point for the end of the shrinking volume wash. What follows will be an upward attack on the previous high.
The tips for bottom-hunting are as follows
1. Short-term bottom Tips: After three days of sharp decline, there will be a rebound;
2. The key to the bottom of the mid-line: the amount of land and the price of land can be rebounded; at the very bottom.
Five points for bargain hunting
1. Don't use up all the funds in your hand at one time, and buy in batches.
2. Don't buy a lot of stocks, at most three feet, and concentrate on ammunition for strong stocks.
3. The stocks you buy must have a front bottom, but now there are no stocks that follow the broader market to new lows, so you can't simply buy them as they fall.
4. Small and medium-cap stocks are the first choice. If the semi-annual report performance is expected to increase and the big non-commitment will be locked for two years, various themed stocks can be focused on.
5. When the uptrend of the broader market has not yet formed, the purchased stocks should do as much as possible t+0 or sell high and sell low to reduce the cost of holding positions.
How to choose a stock with heavy volume at the bottom:
1. In the initial stage of the stock price, the daily trading volume is greater than the moving average trading volume of the stock in the first five days 2.5 times, which is 3 times larger than the moving average trading volume of the previous 10 days.
2. In the initial stage of the stock price, the intraday volume ratio should be at least 10 or more, and the closing volume ratio should be at least 2.5 or more.
3. In the initial stage of the stock price, the trading volume maintained a moderately enlarged state, and the volume-energy deviation rate indicator VBIAS could maintain a rapid and continuous rise for 3 to 5 days. Cross the 0 axis multiple times.
4. The moving average volume VOSC indicator is greater than the 0 axis, and gradually moves up slowly. Even if there is an occasional adjustment, the time when the VOSC indicator is positive is much more than the time when it is negative.
5. When the standard deviation index VSTD of trading volume rises rapidly to a very high position rarely seen in the history of the stock, it means that the trading volume of the stock is excessively enlarged.
Practical bargain hunting skills.
The first: after a rapid decline
The second: After a big Yang line, there are more than three small Yang lines or Doji.
When a stock has experienced a long-term downward adjustment, a large Yang line appears after the rebound, and then three continuous upward small Yang lines appear in a row. Or a doji, which indicates that the upside is likely to be large and can be bought immediately.
The third type: daily limit for heavy volume at the bottom
If there is a daily limit at the bottom position for heavy volume , whether it is a short-term or a band, it will be a better buying position, so you can follow up after the daily limit appears.
The fourth type: the moving average upward golden fork,buy.
After a sharp downward adjustment, the individual stocks rebounded and rose, and then there was a shrinking and stepping back. At this time, if the 5-day moving average, the 10-day moving average and the 40-day moving average appeared three-line convergence, forming a golden cross, there would be another upside. signs, then it's time to buy boldly.
So, how can retail investors accurately buy the bottom?
(1) The 30-day line must be in a rising state when the band is accurately bottom-hunting.
(2) The precise bottom-hunting method is very reliable in the early and mid-term of the stock price operation. The reliability of the stock price decreases in the middle and late stage
(3) If the 5-day line is flat, away from the 30-day line and close to the 10-day or 20-day line for accurate bottom-hunting conditions, the upside potential of the market will be relatively reduced
(4) When this method is applied to rebound and bottom-hunting, it is necessary to make corresponding changes to Point 1.
(5) When this method is used, non-standard trends may occur, but as long as the above three The main point, the principle of bargain-hunting is still the same
The practice of bargain-hunting skills
The most important thing for bargain-hunting is to master the skills of bargain-hunting, but how is it better to copy, and what methods are there? Next, we will introduce three practical techniques to you.
1: The bottom-up limit method
When the stock price rebounds, the ability to go up and down in one go is the manifestation of the main strength and the main force's desire to do more. Therefore, the stock price is expected to rise sharply again in the short term. When the bottom is the first daily limit, dare to follow up, and ultra-short-term investors can retreat when the next day opens higher and moves higher. If you want to maximize profits, you can also wait until the stock price rises weakly and get out of the game when there is a pullback.
Case Explanation: Star Network Ruijie
Net Ruijie has a heavy daily limit after the bottom has gradually stabilized. Due to the large decline in the early stage, it is likely that the bottom formed in the early stage is a stage bottom. At this point, you can follow up boldly, and usually the market will have a certain continuation. Of course, for short-term investors, as long as they reach their target price, they can be decisively out.
2: High turnover tactics
When the stock price is at the daily limit, the turnover rate on the day should be large, at least 5% or more. In this way, even if the main force wants to ship, it has to maintain a volatile market for several days to induce a long market, which also brings profit space for short-term buyers. The Shenyang Machine Tool as shown in the figure below, after a long-term narrow-range accumulation above the 60-day line, finally broke through the heavy volume on a certain day, and reached the daily limit on the day, with a turnover rate of 6.74%. For such stocks, investors should actively follow In the short term, there will be some room for profit.
3: KDJ indicator tactics
KDJ indicator is a short-term indicator. In terms of K-line, its rapid changes often affect the correct judgment of investors. But for the weekly K-line, the KDJ indicator is quite useful. When the weekly KDJ indicator is below the 20 area, when the J line begins to turn its head upward and cross the KD line to form a golden cross, it indicates that the opportunity is coming.
Case Explanation: Jilin Chemical Fiber
The above picture is the weekly candlestick chart of Jilin Chemical Fiber . It can be seen from its weekly KDJ indicator that below 20, when the J line crosses the KD line upwards, it is precisely the opportunity for a short-term market.
The turnover rate of different main traders:
1. The turnover rate of hot money speculation stocks
Once the stock price starts, it is more inseparable from the support of the turnover rate. The more active and thorough the turnover, the more brisk the stock price rises. Because profit-making stocks are constantly being cleaned in the process of changing hands, the average cost continues to increase, and the selling pressure on the upside is also greatly reduced.
The picture below is the K-line chart of Tianci Materials. The stock has benefited from the substantial increase in the prosperity of the lithium battery industry and is sought after by all kinds of funds, because the stock did not have the main funds to build positions in the early stage, and it does not belong to the medium and long term. Funding operation, the daily turnover of the stock is around 20%, and the highest one-day turnover rate is over 40%, indicating that it is completely a fancy speculation by hot money drumming, and it is a stock with a very high degree of hot money participation. 's continuity. Any stocks hyped by hot money must maintain a consistently high turnover rate, otherwise the stock price will not continue to rise.
2. The main operation in the medium and long termThe turnover rate of individual stocks
When considering the activity of individual stocks, it is necessary to use the turnover rate to judge. The turnover rate of some individual stocks is very low, but the stock price will always rise. Such disk characteristics indicate that there are medium and long-term main operations, and such stocks have very strong continuity and very little risk.
The picture below is the K-line chart of Wanliyang. The stock actually has 627 million shares in circulation, but the maximum daily turnover is only 3.39%, and the lowest single-day turnover rate is only 0.46%. Maintaining the upward slope, it is certain that the stock has no hot money participation, and is entirely the main capital operation in the medium and long term. For such stocks, we can boldly participate.
3. Predictive analysis of stock price from high-level and low-level changes
There are many ways to determine whether a stock is in the bottom zone, one of the easiest is to look at the turnover rate. If a stock is running in a descending channel, the turnover rate is extremely high. Low, in other words, this stock has no one to buy or sell, especially the stock that has been the main position in the previous period. After washing, once this happens, it needs to be closely watched, which means that the stock price is already in the bottom area.
The picture below is the K-line chart of Jinke Entertainment. When the stock price pulls back near the 60-day moving average, along with the extreme shrinking of the trading volume, the turnover rate is also very low, indicating that the stock is extremely difficult to trade in this area. Active, low turnover in low positions indicates that the chips for shorting down are basically exhausted. Then you'll ask, "But there are very few up chips." That's true. But why is it said that this place is a stop signal? Because this is the shrinking volume and low turnover on the way down, which has changed the established downward trend, and the long and short positions have achieved a balance here. If the price changes, the stock price will definitely rise.
So can we generally say that the higher the turnover rate, the higher the stock price will rise? the answer is negative. This is true when the stock price has not risen very high and is still in the pull-up stage. But when the stock price has risen quite high and is far from the cost line of the bookmaker's position, it is not right to say this. Not only is it wrong, but on the contrary: the high turnover rate becomes the signal of the shipment, and we often say "the sky is the price". , referring to exactly this situation. When the stock price must maintain a consistently high turnover rate on the way up, once the turnover rate decreases, it means that there are fewer funds for the high-altitude relay, and the upward momentum of the stock price will weaken.
Two-line hedging method in the downtrend
The market fell from 2240 points to the position in the picture. At that time, many retail investors lost quite a lot, and the losses were almost halfway half. Since the "6.24" market, the market has dropped from 1700 points to 1400 points in the picture, and the last trading day in the picture fell by 23 points, which is really a downward trend. Is there any way that retail investors can learn to avoid downside risks? Today we will introduce the [Downtrend Two-Line Hedging Method]. This method is too simple. It cannot be simpler. However, it is also too effective. It should not be stuck until it is effective.
See (Figure 1).
Let’s talk about it, it is: 5th and 10th average The price line is a death cross, once the death cross is determined not to operate until the golden cross. If we operate in this way, from the 1741 points in the picture to the 1400 points below, we do not operate at least most of the time, avoiding the decline of the a-b range, the c-d range, and the f range, because the 5 and 10-day moving averages are both It is a death cross, and this is the [two-line hedging method].
So is there any way for b-c and d-f to filter out risks? If these two risks are filtered out, then all the downside risks since the "6.24" market can be filtered out. Let's just see that the MACD crosses the zero axis and turns green. Don't operate it. It has not been possible to operate since the beginning of August. In this way, all the risks since the "6.24" market have been filtered out. [MACD falls into the green ocean] cannot be operated, and the two-line risk area of the dead cross on the 5th and 10th cannot be operated.
When will it work? Quite simply, if the index turns better, it must cross the 10-day moving average on the 5-day moving average, and the DIF must go up to the zero line and turn red (circled in the picture). When this day comes, we will resolutely go long, and now we can only continue to be bearish in accordance with the [two-line hedging method for decline].
Figure 4 5
【Two-line hedging method for the downtrend】is a simple, easy-to-implement and effective hedging tool. Wrong, in our guangtong pursuit of 2+3 and MACD zero red, most of the uptrend of bull stocks is completed in it, while most of the downtrend of bear stocks is in [MACD under the green ocean] ], [5, 10 days Sicha downward ventilation] completed within the interval.
Coping skills for retail investors
1. Experienced short-term masters can sell high and buy low in the box to earn the difference.
2. General retail investors can intervene after the stock price breaks out of the box.
Five key points to pay attention to when buying the bottom:
1. Don't use all the funds in your hand at one time, and buy in batches.
2. Don't buy a lot of stocks, at most three are enough, and concentrate your ammunition to make strong stocks.
3. The stocks you buy must have a front bottom, but now they have not followed the broader market to new lows, so you can't simply buy more as they fall.
4. Small and medium-cap stocks are the first choice. If the semi-annual report performance is expected to increase and the big non-commitment will be locked for two years, various themed stocks can be focused on.
5. When the uptrend of the broader market has not yet formed, the purchased stocks should do as much as possible t+0 or sell high and buy low to reduce the cost of holding positions.
Precautions for bottom-hunting
1. The popular stocks before adjustment are suitable for short-term trade, and go away when they make a profit
Some sectors In the process of the continuous decline of the stock index, the decline was small, mainly because of the concentration of funds involved in the sector before that, and the main force was difficult to get out in the case of a sudden market change. Therefore, these individual stocks will be strong after the market stabilizes. Opportunities, the more fully changed stocks, the stronger the rebound;
2. Focus on the stocks that are resistant to decline and have enlarged trading volume during the adjustment
For the main force, in the market When the face and the news face are not coordinated, it is more necessary to make a choice of which is more important, so as to determine the direction of the stock in hand. There are obviously factors that support the market in individual stocks that do not fall against the trend. At present, the stock price has become a key position for the main force, so we have to spare no effort to support the market, in order to keep the shape intact, which is conducive to future growth;
3. It is risky for stocks to rise against the trend. Don’t be greedy.
“Everything is green and a little red” will often leave a deep impression on investors, and these stocks are bucking the trend. One kind of information: There are strong bookmakers in the stock, and they have reached the level of controlling the disk freely. However, many of these stocks often become weak stocks in the rebound, and investors who step in in a hurry are not only not getting the expected returns but are trapped.
Operator: Lin Qinyuan (nnd256)