A good master should be able to obtain a stable compound interest return for many years, make money over the years instead of getting rich in one go, and make frequent instead of big profits. The high profit of investing in the capital market should come from the result of long-term accumulation of sustained profit under low risk. Professional masters only pursue the most reliable, and only amateur low-level players only focus on maximizing profits and being content with short-term glory. This is also the fundamental reason why most people are easy to achieve short-term success, but difficult to achieve long-term success.
Heavy positions and frequent trading lead to huge fluctuations in performance, which are the performance of amateur low-handers, and the two interact and cause and effect each other. Perseverance, patience, confidence and tenacity to accumulate success is the professional trading attitude.
Whether you can clearly, quantitatively and systematically limit your single and total operational risk from the plan, system and discipline is the dividing point to distinguish winners and losers, followed by talent, diligence, Luck to get as big a score as possible. And how the results are, which depends to a large extent on the market, that is, "it will happen in the sky". As for the losers, no matter how brilliant they are, they are just shocks, and ultimately they cannot escape the fate of losing. The qualitative change from subjective emotional traders to objective systematic traders is the result of long-term accumulation, precipitation and sublimation: unconscious → aware → doing → doing well → persisting → habit → mastering → forgetting → complete.
Making small money depends on technology (smart), and making big money depends on will (wisdom). Long-term (wisdom) to determine the direction, short-term (smart) to find opportunities. Wisdom becomes a great cause, and wisdom is only enough. If you are too smart, you will lose your wisdom (to make yourself smart), so I want to be smarter than others and give up small smarts (to be wise but stupid). The will here should be understood as sticking to one's correct ideas and effective methods without wavering.
1. What is volume?
Trading volume is a manifestation of supply and demand, which refers to the number of transactions for a certain transaction in a unit of time. When the supply is in short supply, the crowd is surging, and they all want to buy, and the transaction volume will naturally increase; on the contrary, if the supply exceeds the demand, the market is deserted, and the buying interest is scarce, and the transaction volume is bound to shrink. And digitizing the crowd is the transaction volume. The trading volume in a broad sense includes the number of shares traded, the trading value, and the turnover rate; in a narrow sense and the most commonly used one, it only refers to the number of traded shares.
Trading volume refers to the total number of shares traded on that day (1 lot = 100 shares). VOL shows that 1M is generally accepted internationally as 1K=1000, 1M=1 million, 1B=1 billion. 10^3, 10^6, 10^9
It should be noted that the large-scale trading volume usually refers to the trading amount. Indicate the activity of the market and the scale of funds. Transaction volume and transaction value are expressed by the following formula: Transaction volume (transaction volume) * average transaction price = transaction amount (transaction value)
Transaction volume refers to the specific number of transactions in a certain period of time. It can be drawn in time-sharing charts, including daily, weekly, monthly, and even 5-minute, 30-minute, and 60-minute charts. Changes in market trading volume reflect the flow of funds in and out of the market. Trading volume is an important indicator for judging market trends. However, in mature foreign markets, trading volume is mainly used to confirm market trends. In general, stocks with high volume and rising prices tend to trend well. When the trading volume continues to be sluggish, it generally occurs in the bear market or the stock consolidation stage, and the market trading is not active. Trading volume is an important basis for judging the trend of stocks and provides an important basis for analyzing the main behavior. Investors should pay close attention to stocks with unusually volatile trading volumes.
Second, the basic meaning of trading volume
1. Trading volume represents the degree of disagreement between the views of the long and short sides, and the shrinking volume indicates the current long and short position Views tend to be the same, and heavy volume shows that the two sides have relatively large differences in views.
2. Trading volume, which indicates the willingness of funds to participate, and the depth of participation, which indicates the activity of individual stocks or the broader market, and measures the level of trading volume horizontally.The indicator is the turnover rate.
3. Volume and price have two relationships of divergence and synchronization. Heavy volume occurs at the inflection point of the trend turning point, and shrinkage occurs in an obvious upward or downward trend.
3. Principles for the application of trading volume
1. Any entry or exit should take the broader market as the observation point. Confused by bucking the trend and rising stocks.
2. In most cases, the price will not fall after the equivalent volume shrinks. Once the volume gradually expands, it is a good thing.
3. In the process of falling, if the trading volume keeps shrinking, the volume shrinks to an "unbelievable" level on a certain day, and the stock price decline slows down, it is the time to buy.
4. After the trading volume shrinks, when the new bottom point does not appear for 2 consecutive days, the bottoming of the volume has been confirmed, and intervention can be considered.
5. After the trading volume shrinks, the longer the time of "price stability and volume shrinkage" is, the stronger the rise will be in the future, and the greater the rebound will be.
6. After the volume bottoms out, if there is a huge surge, you should be very careful about the market price of the day. Under normal circumstances, the surge in volume is not a good thing, unless the volume decreases and the price increases the next day, otherwise It's just a rebound.
Eight volume patterns
a. The first four basic volume-price coordination patterns are the basis. When the stock price and the trading volume form a special combination pattern in some special positions, some clear bullish or bearish signals will also be formed. This kind of pattern also needs to be paid attention to when looking at the market.
b. As shown in the figure:
c. Specific analysis:
1. High volume in the bottom area
At the bottom after the stock price has fallen for a period of time, if the stock price forms an upward trend and the trading volume increases simultaneously, it means that as the stock price rises, more and more Investors start to be optimistic and then buy stocks, and they buy and push the stock price to continue to rise. The stock has entered a virtuous upward cycle and has the potential to continue rising from the bottom range. A breakout of heavy volume at the bottom is a more important signal for technical buying and can be bought at the starting point.
2. Shrinking and callback in the middle of the rise
After the stock price rises for a period of time, it may encounter resistance and callback. If the trading volume continues to shrink during the stock price correction, it means that investors who sell stocks during the correction are getting smaller and smaller, and the resistance to the stock price falling is weak. After a brief correction in the future, the stock price will continue to rise.
At the end of the callback market, if the trading volume increases again and the stock price also shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding, it means that the callback market is over and the stock price continues to rise. At this time, you can choose to intervene.
3. The heavy volume breaks through the resistance level
When the stock price breaks through the resistance level, if the trading volume increases significantly, it means that the stock has broken through the resistance level. The force is very strong and will form an effective breakthrough. The resistance level that the stock price breaks through in heavy volume may be the previous high point, or it may be an important moving average, trend line or golden section line.
Once the resistance level is broken, the stock price will rise on continued buying. Therefore, when the stock price has just formed a breakout, investors can choose to step in.
4. Rising Shrinking volume when decelerating
When the stock price continues to rise for a period of time, if the stock price rises slowly and the trading volume continues to decrease, it means that as the stock price rises, it is an investment that is chasing high and buying There are fewer and fewer people, and the stock price has insufficient momentum to continue to rise as in the previous period. This is a signal that the stock price will peak and fall in the future.
Because the stock has not started to fall at this time, when seeing such a signal, if investors do not have stocks in their hands, they should not continue to chase high and buy. If you already hold stocks in your hands, you should pay more attention to the risk of the stock price peaking and falling, and be ready to sell at any time.
5. High volume stagflation in the top area
When the stock price rises to the top After the area, if the trading volume continues to increase, but the stock price cannot continue to rise like the previous period of heavy volume growth, it means that the stock price rise has encountered huge resistance. The power is also strong, and buyers and sellers change hands in a large number of high-priced areas, resulting in a substantial increase in trading volume.
Because of the stagnant stock price, investors who were originally optimistic about the market outlook, will gradually change their minds and stop chasing the high stock price, the upward momentum of the stock price will be weakened, and the stock price will lose the chase Buying support will continue to fall in the future. Therefore, such a pattern is a signal that the stock price is about to peak and fall. After seeing such a signal, investors should sell their stocks as soon as possible to avoid risks.
6. High volume sells at the top
When the stock price reaches the top or after a period of consolidation at the top, if the stock price suddenly drops sharply and the trading volume increases significantly, it means that There was a large amount of selling in the market and began to focus on short selling. Such a pattern may be caused by a sudden bad situation, or it may be that the main capital is withdrawing from the stock in large quantities.
Whatever the reason, such a pattern can cause panic in the market, causing more investors to sell the stock, which in turn causes the stock price to continue falling. Therefore, once this pattern appears, the stock price will enter a vicious downward cycle and will continue to fall in the short term. Seeing such a pattern, investors should sell their stocks as soon as possible. Even if selling at this time will result in losses, they must stop losses decisively.
7. Shrinking volume and rebounding in the middle of the decline
In the continuous falling market, if the stock price bottoms out and the trading volume continues to shrink, This shows that the rebound trend is weak. This rebound has not been generally recognized by many forces. There are very few investors who chase after the rebound to buy stocks. At this time, most investors in the market are still bearish on the market outlook, even if the stock price rises, There aren't too many investors willing to buy long.
It is difficult for such a rising market to last for too long. As the stock price rises, the multi-party power of the stock price becomes weaker and weaker. There is a risk that the stock price will peak and fall, and when such a pattern is seen, investors should sell the stock as soon as possible.
8. Downward boundless shortfall
When the stock price continues to fall, if the trading volume is always at a very low level, there is no obvious heavy volume , without continuing to shrink, it formed an infinitely empty form. Such a pattern shows that as the stock price falls, the trading in the market becomes more and more deserted, and although there are few investors who sell the stock, there are also no investors who buy the stock.
Once entering this boundless market, it is difficult for the stock price to gain the attention of investors again in the short term, and this downward trend will continue in the future. Therefore, when seeing such a pattern, investors should sell the stock as soon as possible.
Volume pre-judgment main entry and exit technology
1. There is a saying in the stock market that "the rebound is not the bottom, and the bottom does not rebound", and everyone must agree. I also have a sentence: "The volume is not the bottom, the bottom is not the volume", the real bottom is the shrinking volume. The picture is the K-line chart of Hongyang Energy. The stock price has continuously shrunk after a round of decline. From the comparison of the previous trading volume, it is a very small amount, indicating that there are few sell-offs and the bottom of the prediction is established.
There is a situation that needs special explanation: sometimes there are two consecutive shrinkages, that is, the second bottom, called double bottom. Its basic characteristics are shrinkage, which belongs to a low-risk area and can be bought twice.
2. Top volume disk password
A crucial analysis indicator for top analysis is volume, which can truly tell us the password contained in the disk, regardless of whether the mainWhat kind of temptation is used, the amount of energy at the top cannot be disguised, it is all real money. When the main force is shipping, it is impossible to buy it with a large amount of money, and it becomes a waste of money, and the loss outweighs the gain. Therefore, once the stock price stagnates and shrinks at a high level, there is no need to imagine that the stock price will continue to rise. Operational selling is the primary task.
The picture is the K-line chart of Tianci Materials. It can be clearly seen from the disk that the stock price has experienced a very obvious high-level contraction for two consecutive days after the continuous increase in volume. Once the head is established, if you still feel that you need to observe and confirm, then look at the next head. At this time, it is very clear. Keep shrinking, and the head is established.
3. The disk password of the fake volume decline
Sometimes the trading volume is true and false, which is very confusing. Even so, it is possible to find clues from the characteristics of the main operation of the disk. So how to find the clues of true and false volume from the disk?
The picture is the K-line chart of Tonghua Golden Horse. The disk shows that the stock price has been running in an orderly manner along the 5-day moving average. What does this mean? This shows that there is a main operation. Suddenly two daily limits followed by three consecutive daily limit drops. Who can do it? It is impossible for retail investors, the only thing that can be explained is the main behavior.
Has there been any major bad news for the company? If the answer is no, is it necessary for the main force to ship at a continuous limit? The stock price had a very small increase in the early stage. At this time, the main force failed to make money. There is only one final conclusion: the heavy volume Yinxian is the main force's violent wash. In this case, the negative lines of heavy volume are all false, and we must be ready to buy. The more violent the main force is, the more violent the uptrend will be in the later period, and we just need to wait for the time to shrink.
What is healthy energy? The picture is the K-line chart of Haihong Holdings. The columns I marked with heavy volume correspond to the prices above. What can be found? Has the volume increased? Therefore, the rise must be a healthy amount of energy. The rise of the stock price must be driven by capital. As long as the volume rises on the disk, it means that the market will continue to rise.
5. The disk password of the real heavy volume decline
The rise requires a lot of funds to drive, and if it is a decline and heavy volume, it means that the main funds are sold in large quantities, and retail investors will not form a unified selling behavior, and also That is to say, the increase in volume during the decline is the result of the main force selling. When the main force is sold out, the next decline is the behavior of retail investors. Because there is no participation of the main capital, the volume can shrink, and then the subsequent shrinking and falling will be formed. .
The picture is the K-line chart of Tonghua Golden Horse. After the stock price rose sharply in the early stage, the main force fell at a high level and the main force shipped. Once the main force shipped, the head has been formed.
6. The disk password for the volume of strategic funds to open positions
There is a very mysterious disk trend. The picture is the K-line chart of CITIC Securities in November 2013. It's quite powerful, but it has been falling since then, falling below the price when the heavy volume rose. How would you analyze it? What will be the result? The main force pulls up the shipment, and then suddenly the heavy volume rises. This is the main force opening a position, and this main force is an extraordinary main force, and it is the most direct manifestation of the strategic opening of a super institution, because it has a large amount of capital, and it only needs a small amount of capital to make the disk turbulent. Since it is a strategic capital behavior, then this stock must have a great increase in the future, and the main position has just begun.
So what can the strategic position building of institutional funds give me? Strategic funds have very strong predictability, and their large-scale buying means an inevitable trend of in-depth development of the future market. Such a situation will only appear in the historical outsole stage.
The relationship between volume and pricePower trader intentions
The first move: generally bearish when prices rise and volume shrinks, but beware of scams. Generally speaking, price rises and volume contractions indicate that although funds are still flowing in, the inflows are decreasing and should be bearish.
However, for the Changzhuang stocks controlled by the banker, the banker holds most of the chips and is full of confidence in the fundamentals of the stock and the market outlook. The banker will lock most of the chips and use a small amount The capital pair has been pulled up, and there are signs of price increase and volume contraction. Once such a situation occurs, small and medium-sized retail investors should hold on to the stock and pay close attention to the changes in the disk. Small and medium-sized retail investors should not let go if there is no obvious shipping behavior by the dealer.
The second trick: The increase in price and volume means that the speed of capital outflow is accelerating. Of course, you should be bearish, but you should pay attention to two points:
1 , Pay attention to the extent to which the amount can be increased. How big is the increase in transaction volume? Generally, the daily turnover rate is used as the judgment standard. Sometimes, in order to shake out the profit margins, the dealers deliberately increase the volume and drop the market to create a scam, but when the volume can be enlarged, the daily turnover rate is generally below 5%.
2. Pay attention to the position of the stock price. At the bottom, the stock price of the increase in volume fell slightly. Instead, it was the dealer who suppressed the buying behavior. Instead of being short, it was long.
The third trick: Although the price falls and the volume shrinks, it should be long, but it depends on the specific situation of the volume shrinkage.
The fall of stock price is like the fall of a heavy object, and it does not need the enlargement and cooperation of trading volume. Each decline in the broader market and individual stocks has been accompanied by a more or less shrinking volume. Therefore, as long as the price decline shrinks to a certain limit, it can be long. A common situation in which the price falls and the volume shrinks is on the eve of the bookmaker's completion of absorbing the goods and pulling up. In order to shake out the profit margins and reduce the difficulty of pulling up, the dealers usually drop the market with a large negative line shrinking. The short-term decline at this time is a scam. Not only can it not be shipped at this time, but it is a good opportunity to intervene on dips.
The fourth move, the increase in price and volume is generally bullish, but when the volume is enlarged to a limit and cannot continue to be enlarged, one must be vigilant. This shows that the incremental funds have all entered the market, the process of capital inflow is basically over, and the process of falling is just around the corner, that is, the so-called sky-high volume versus sky-high price.