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Fundamental stock analysis

Release Time:2022-06-12 Topic:Fundamental analysis of individual stocks Reading:92 Navigation:Stock Liao information > Comprehensive > Fundamental stock analysis phone-reading

Introduction

In the stock market, fundamental strategies are often The most effective, because the stock market can be divided into bull markets and bear markets according to the length of time. In a bull market, the fundamentals are often ignored, because it is a general rise in individual stocks, and the market is full of hot spots. You can almost choose one. Stocks will see big gains. Then in the Chinese stock market, the bulls are short and the bears are long. When the bear market is really reached, the stocks with good fundamentals and quality will highlight their value! You can look at the trend of Maotai in recent years. Can you see the impact of the bull market and bear market on it? Therefore, picking stocks based on fundamentals often stands the test of the market!

Chapter 1 Fundamental Value and Price Logic

The price of a stock often fluctuates around its value. The quality of a stock often depends on its own price attributes and value attributes. The so-called price attribute refers to the price of the stock in the price range in the recent period. Contrast, the so-called value attribute refers to the comparative impact brought by the report of the stock's operating performance; I will cite two cases to illustrate:

1. Stocks whose prices fluctuate around value

Xishan Coal and Electricity, the market price on January 5 was 10.4 yuan, an increase of more than 20% year-on-year. This is the price attribute, so what about the value? Last year's annual performance was 0.13 yuan per share. This year, due to the recovery of the coal power industry's prosperity and market expectations, it is expected to reach 0.5-0.6 yuan, an increase of nearly 200% compared with last year. Naturally, the increase in value will promote the price. Up; this type of stock is a positive growth in its own price and value attributes;

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2. Stocks whose prices deviate from value

IFLYTEK, the closing price on January 5, 2017 was 61.95 yuan. It has increased by more than 100% year-on-year, but what about the operating performance? In 2016, it was 0.37 yuan, and the price-earnings ratio at that time was 80 times; but this year, the expected performance is about 0.4 yuan, and there is no growth. However, with the skyrocketing price, the price-earnings ratio has reached 160 times! Prices have strayed significantly from value attributes.

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If Xishan Coal and Electric Power Co., Ltd. is affected by the recovery of industry prosperity and the improvement of the concept of cyclicality, the value attribute is prominent, and the price also increases with the value In addition to normal value fluctuations, the rise in the value of long-term funds is also an aspect.

IFLYTEK belongs to another level, and the attributes of concept stocks are expected to be strong. Simply put, it belongs to the leader of artificial intelligence, and the country has a strong understanding of the sector and concept of artificial intelligence. Policies have given greater support, so the industry has a hot expectation of future expansion, which has led to a tendency for the industry's stocks to rise sharply! This has a lot to do with industry attributes.

Chapter 2 How to Capture Fundamental Price and Value Properties of Stocks

Basic The volatility of the price and value of the surface can generate many opportunities and investment value. Whether it is a performance growth stock that meets the value fluctuations or a concept stock with overdraft performance for value speculation, there will be strong investment opportunities. So, how to capture investment opportunities in such stocks? Analysis from the following aspects:

1. For fundamental growth stocks, its value attribute is relatively strong, so pay attention to the information that occurs at any time or The strength of the industry will become the key. Of course, the performance report can also be concerned, but due to the strong lag, the reference value is not large.

For example, the current cyclical industry inflection point stocks we are talking about, the cement sector, its price basically fluctuates around value, so the first thing to start is industry information For example, the recent cement inventory is relatively low, and the industry has a better ability to digest inventory, especially in East China, the sales volume is the best, and the price is also rising very quickly. Therefore, the target of stock selection is selected in this region, and the stock in this region will eventually Three categories were screened out: Conch Cement – ​​the largest in production, mainly sold in Anhui and Shanghai. Evergreen - the main sales in Jiangxi area, Huaxin Cement - the main sales in Wuhan and other East China.

Of course, many investors do not know how to collect these industry information, so you can pay more attention to the current industry research reports , as well as a series of neutral evaluation articles for industry research, which are sent from time to time on different platforms.

Second, relative to growth stocks, concept stocks are more speculative, which determines that to capture it, it is necessary to quickly understand the explosive information of this industry , Sometimes hot spots are fleeting, so it is often necessary to quickly understand the influence factors of news to obtain investment returns.

For example, why is the chip concept so popular in the second half of 2017? It is mainly due to the rapid growth in the demand for the semiconductor industry that can only be developed by artificial intelligence and national smart cities. In July 2017, the State Council officially released the "New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan", and artificial intelligence will reach 10,000 in the future. billion scale. But this report mentioned more about artificial intelligence, and the chip concept was not taken seriously by any news at the time.

At that time, the stock prices of many chip concept stocks were not discovered, especially at that time, the chip leader Ziguang Guoxin was even at the limit of compensating for the decline.

After October, The importance of the news has begun to show, and many media have taken advantage of the development of domestic chips and even combined with AMD's mergers and acquisitions, and even said that they will be able to replace foreign chip monopoly in the future. However, when the news came out, the stock prices of many stocks have already risen Silan Micro has even doubled the hype!

This fully illustrates a Question, sometimes news guidance is very important, artificial intelligence involves many aspects, and sometimes the hot spots will start with the biggest. Followed by the hype.

How do we capture it at this time? In August, there were still risks, because after all, no attention was paid to this concept section in any aspect, until October when various media began to advocate, in factThe market has been hyped for a while. At this time, what we actually need is to look for the undervalued stocks that make up for the increase. If Ziguang Guoxin and Silan Micro have been hyped, we need to look for undervalued stocks, such as Taiji Industry. , Although a stock like Tongfu Microelectronics is not as profitable as the leader, after all, the leader has already set sail. We can only follow the trend and eat meat, but the income is also a lot, at least 20% or more.

Third Chapter How to Grasp the Trading Points of Hot Stocks

If you capture stocks that are in line with trends or hotspots, you need to pay attention to their trading points. There is a saying that Good: "Apprentices who can buy, and masters who can sell." To grasp the trading point, you need to grasp several major factors according to the market trends

1. The leader should not care about the size of the space, it depends on the idea of ​​your operation It’s still short-term. For example, Maotai, the leader in the liquor industry, if you buy a share for about 200 yuan, and you want to hold it for a year, then you can buy it at about 205-210 yuan, because it is the leader as long as the industry continues to be in the market. Prosperity, then its rise will not be low. Of course, if you are short-term, then it is best not to touch the price above 200 yuan. After all, short-term needs a combination of space and time. Once stuck, short-term is likely to become long-term. After all, there is room for leading stocks to rise, and there is still room to fall.

Second, The selling point should consider the long-term trend and pay attention to the cycle node

So the buying point has been found, and the selling point? This is also related to the long and short lines. If you think you are short-term, then you should consider how long the trend will rise. When the heavy volume closes out of the negative line, it is not too late to consider leaving the market, but don’t think about it. At the technical level, once a leader is formed, the trend is king, and if the trend changes, no amount of technical levels will make sense.

For example, Bayi Iron and Steel, if the cost of 6-7 yuan at the beginning of the year is involved, the fundamental inventory of the steel industry is still improving, and the market is better at digesting the supply, it can continue to Hold, do not consider selling, because the fundamentals have not changed, the price will continue to rise with the trend of the fundamentals, because this is the first point I mentioned before, the price will go around the value, even if there is a range adjustment, do not Afraid, of course, there are still rebar futures, which can also be used as a reference for the industry prospects.

If this trending stock has a profit of more than 50%, it is established to cash out, because the first consideration of value investment is the time cost, and there is a doubled income unless you seize the leader, Because it is very difficult for many value stocks with room for growth to have a 50% increase. This is like doing a business. 100% profit can take a lot of risk, not to mention 50%? Because industry attributes are also likely to change, once you retreat, your profits will shrink significantly. In fact, the trend chart of Bayi Iron and Steel has already told you very clearly that it has doubled and cannot move up.

Three , Concept stocks should not be long-term, and resolutely withdraw in case of risks

The attributes of concept stocks have no fundamental support, and many stocks are basically overdrafted future performance expectations. For speculation, therefore, the trading point of concept stocks should be more strictly grasped. Whether you are using the board or looking for a trading point to invest in profit spreads, as long as the profit is realized, you must leave the market.

For example, at the end of the year, the leading big data concept stocks have massive data. Unless you make arrangements at a low level in advance, you will not be able to grasp the market after December 8th. In order to support the development of learning informatization, it is enough to prove the degree of attention, but many concept stocks have not gone out of a decent trend, and there is little room for growth after the daily limit is opened after the massive data on December 8.. It can be seen from the trend that if the short-term high point is not withdrawn in time, the possibility of the quilt behind is also quite high. Many big data stocks such as Dimensity Technology and Tuowei Information are basically the end of a day trip.

Concepts like this The sex is not bad, and there are also the kind of one-day tours that are dead, especially the high-speed transfer in the past two years is this routine, and Jiaxun Feihong with the previous high-speed rail concept has just stepped out of a wave of trends, and the major shareholder is one. The announcement of the reduction of holdings will bring the stock price back to its original state. Therefore, if the concept stock is not sustainable, it must be evacuated when it encounters a high level. After all, it is meat in the mouth, and money in the pocket.

Chapter 4 How to find and hide the leader

Look for the leader, don't chase the price , because the space for chasing up is not only difficult to control, but the long-term industry is also easy to say, at most it encounters adjustments, and then there is a chance to rebound as the industry improves. Once the concept stocks are finished, the possibility of getting stuck is very high, and There is a possibility of a deep set.

For the leader, first of all, it depends on the prosperity of the industry. For example, in the cement building materials sector, Conch Cement has the best performance, but it is not necessarily the leader. The industry leader is in the industry. Leading, it can be used as a stable investment variety, but the most trending trend in the market must be the leader, and that is none other than Evergreen. In fact, in the market, after the rising trend, Evergreen often encounters the opportunity to adjust. As long as the industry outlook does not change, adjustment is actually an opportunity to intervene. Since October 2017, the cement industry has continued to pick up. Ah, and it is often one stage of growth, one stage of adjustment, and one stage of growth.

Of course the callback It is an opportunity, and it must conform to the logic of the fundamentals. For example, the first stage of Evergreen's growth rate is less than 20%, and a callback is an opportunity. It cannot be said that it has risen to the sky, and then it will be pulled back and then intervened. Once the increase is too large, you must pay attention to the risks. This is the key factor.

So, how to grasp the leader of concept stocks? Because concept stocks are relatively volatile, if you want to chase the rise, you must look at the strength of the callback, which cannot exceed 20% of the highest point. For example, the chip concept stock Silanwei, from September 18th to September 22nd, rose by 30% %, the correction rate was only 4%, while from September 18 to October 9, the increase was 45%, and the correction rate stabilized at only 20%. So there is the back of the market.

Like the earliest Tianqi The lithium industry has been frantically hyping lithium carbonate for a period of time, and the high and low levels have never retraced more than 20%, and the subsequent waves of rises have continued to lead the market to new highs!

The above is a reference for fundamental stock selection. Of course, these stock selection ideas are inseparable from changes in the market. Once the market is unstable, or the industry as a whole is affected by the market. In addition, the idea of ​​stock selection should not be too absolute. Sometimes there will always be some extreme situations, and the market will sometimes make major corrections to these rising and falling parameters! Therefore, in terms of stock selection and operation strategies, we must also change. Under the trend that the general direction remains unchanged, small ideas must also be updated and straightened. In short, it takes a long time to seize a good stock. Research and analysis!

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