Trading and life are interlinked, and doing a stock is like being a human being. Many times forgetting is more important than learning, and good reporters must be good at forgetting. Trading is different from other industries. Even if you have determination, it may be futile. Most people can't escape the fate of giving up in despair, because human greed and fear are the root of most people's heart to give up. It is not a matter of time to understand. If you do not change the wrong character, it will be difficult to change the outcome of failure. The price of success is high, that is, the total denial of your own humanity, the repositioning of yourself, and the transformation of yourself.
The following ten key points should be paid attention to when trading stocks:
1) Thinking of investing as a hobby, but expecting to make money from amateur skills
I would like to ask you a few questions, "Have you ever sang in a karaoke hall? song?"
"Are you envious of Faye Wong just sing a song? With millions of income, why does she make money from singing, but you have to pay for singing?"
"Because the other party is a professional singer, I am just a hobby."
Have you ever played badminton or swimming in the gym?
Why does Lin Dan get paid to play badminton, but you have to pay to play badminton instead?
Because the opponent is a professional player, I am just a hobby.
Do you feel so happy? Is it reasonable?
Very happy and reasonable.
Well, my last question is: Since you consider stock investing as a hobby, why do you expect to make money from the stock market instead of spending money in the stock market?
2) People shop around to buy a toilet paper, but it only takes 3 minutes to review a stock.
I know an aunt who told me that in order to help her son buy a house, she ran all over the new real estate in Guangzhou, I ran out of 3 pairs of shoes. I was deeply impressed by her amazing perseverance. But she never did research when buying stocks. She just bought a ticket from a variety of miscellaneous channels after hearing someone recommend a certain ticket to her. As for why you should buy it, I don't know. I don't know what this company does. What the products produced by this company are used for, and who its downstream are, I don't know.
I believe that 70% of market investors are like this auntie. They usually have to shop around to buy a roll of toilet paper. For a coupon worth 30 yuan, you can Queued for 2 hours. But when making stock decisions, he didn't want to delay a minute, and he resolutely threw tens of thousands of yuan into a stock in less than three minutes. I call this behavior schizophrenia.
This kind of behavior is not only committed by amateur investors, but also committed by professional investors. Many people will make excuses, such as I don't have so much data to analyze. I don't know how to analyze. But what I want to say is: when you lose money, you say "I haven't researched it thoroughly, can I start over again", and you will see if the exchange will refund you the money.
3) I have the ambition to earn 1 billion, but I don't have the patience to persist for 3 months
Want to win Losing is the mindset of most people. After years of observation, ordinary shareholders can only endure 3 consecutive losses, 3 months of continuous quilt, and a 30% loss of individual stocks; I call this phenomenon the 333 law.
For example, I have a short-term trading system, the historical test success rate is 70%, and the annualized rate of return exceeds 100%. Many people are very excited when they hear it, and feel that it is 70%. The win rates are strong, try it out, because they are attracted by the super high yield. I repeatedly told the other party to be mentally prepared to lose 3-5 times in a row. In order to be able to use it immediately, of course, the other party nodded in agreement without hesitation. However, when he did lose three times in a row, he immediately became naive and became hesitant. I know what he was thinking. He wondered if the 70% win rate was a lie, and why did he try it for a few times? Didn't make a lot of money every time, didn't it say that it doubled in a year? Why did I try several times and still didn't catch a daily limit?
For a trading system with a winning rate of 70%, it is normal to have 3 losses in a row. Those who think it is abnormal are those who have not learned probability statistics. It is very common to vote with your feet after losing 3 times in a row. For example, the other party asks you to recommend a stock. If you recommend the wrong stock 3 times in a row, then there will be no fourth time. If the other party is an ordinary shareholder, I can understand it, but in fact, the other party is a fund manager who also makes this mistake. The researcher under him recommends a single stock incorrectly 3 times, then basically your opinion will not be adopted. This is one of the reasons why it is difficult for ordinary people to make money in stocks, because they only use each trading method 10 times and give up, even if the first 5 times are profitable, as long as there are 3 consecutive losses in the following, they will also Doubts about the effectiveness of the system will eventually lead to abandonment and the search for "more accurate" transactions. The result is a lifelong search for "a more accurate trading system".
The quilt is unbearable for 3 months and often appears to long-term traders. Once the quilt is covered for 3 months, they have a strong desire to cut their meat and exchange stocks. The essence is that they have been tortured by a stock for 3 months, and have reached the limit of their psychological endurance, so even if he knows that this is the end, he will cut the meat out of the game, why? Because he only wants to get rid of his psychological pain now, making money is no longer his investment goal. His goal now is to release pressure and make himself feel better. In such a situation, I don't know how to persuade the other party. It's like a person who is tortured by a disease to the point of death. I beg you to give him euthanasia. Are you going to give it or not?
Floating losses of 30% are unbearable and often appear on band operators and long-term operators. This mistake is not only made by ordinary investors, but also by the best professional investors. Because there are good reasons and evidence to show that you should not let your funds withdraw by 30%. However, a 30% retracement of funds and a 30% retracement of a stock price are two different things. For example, if you can only buy a 30% position, then the individual stock will retrace 30%, and the capital will only retrace 9%. I will not discuss how to manage funds and risk control here, it is too long to say. What I want to stress is that any stock, entering at any position, has the possibility of a 30% retracement. When you enter the market, you should be mentally prepared to bear a 30%-50% decline, but many people are not prepared for this kind of psychological preparation. As soon as they come up, they will be all in, and then encounter a 10% correction in the broader market. Individual stocks all pulled back 30%, and they couldn't bear it immediately, and they cut positions at the bottom.
4) Most people just pretend to be hardworking and pretend to think
About 50% of the investors usually read "Secrets of the Stock Market" on the Internet, and go to various forums and WeChat public accounts to collect stock speculation knowledge. They seem to be diligent and eager to learn, but in fact, they just collect dry goods with one click, and never really absorb and digest the content. Collected things are often seen only once, and then shelved. They just seek psychological comfort, so that their hearts do not condemn their laziness.
I can guarantee that after reading this article, most people will click on the collection, and they all agree with what the article says. But then what? And then no more. 90% of people will not read this article again. 99% of people will completely agree with the point of view of this article, but if you really take action to change yourself, 50% will be left in the next day, only 10% will be left after a week, and 99% of people will forget the content of the article after a month. , let alone change anything.
Lu Xun, because of the inferiority of the people, abandoned medicine and pursued literature, and planned to use words to awaken people's conscience. But did he do it? What has he changed? Nothing has changed. After reading my article, can you be reborn and change from a loss to a profit? 99% of people will still stay the same. I slapped myself three times, admitted that I had failed in the past, and I was sorely relieved that I decided to change myself from this moment. Then I lay in bed and fell asleep. I woke up the next day and felt much better, no longer blamed myself, and went to work happily. went. This is what ordinary people call an effort to "change themselves."
5) Only buy raw, not cooked
In "Swordsman", Linghu Chong's little junior sister would rather marry a man who has known each other for less than a few months, rather than marry Linghu Chong who has been with him for more than ten years. Why, because she was so familiar with Linghu Chong that she was so familiar that there was nothing new. But it's a very ridiculous choice, one is 100% understood and the other is 50% understood. From an investment perspective, you should choose something that is 100% sure, which means the risk is manageable. If it is said that this is the characteristic of the human emotional world, feelings cannot be forced, and I can still agree. But this phenomenon not only exists in marital relationships, but also in the investment world.
I can say that 70% of people would not buy stocks in their industry. For example, those who are engaged in environmental protection never buy environmental protection stocks, but they will buy computer stocks. Those who are engaged in computers never buy computer stocks, but they will buy environmental protection stocks.
Why does this strange phenomenon occur? The answer is "hazy beauty". Why don't people in the environmental protection industry buy environmental protection, because he knows a lot of "shady" and "unspoken rules" in environmental protection. Because he understands, he hates it and thinks that many companies in it are garbage. Why would he buy computer stocks, because he thinks the computer industry looks good, sounds good, at least it should be better than environmental protection. So why do people in the computer industry not buy computer stocks, because he knows a lot of "shady" and "unspoken rules" in the computer industry, and because he understands, he hates them, and feels that many companies in it are garbage. Why would he buy environmental protection stocks, because he thinks the environmental protection industry looks good, sounds good, at least it should be better than computers.
I don’t buy it because I understand it; I buy it because I don’t understand it. Is there a more comical investment behavior than this?
In addition to this, there is another similar behavior. That is, the votes in the self-selected stocks are never bought, but new votes that are discovered on the fly. I researched the ticket for a day and never bought it. Instead, I bought the inexplicable ticket that he recommended after listening to others for 5 minutes. Therefore, you will find that ordinary shareholders will accumulate more and more stocks in their self-selected stocks, and their daily task is to continuously add stocks to their self-selected stocks. At the same time, he will complain to you that there are no stocks to buy, and ask you for stocks. I'm just wondering, your stock pool already has 100 stocks, which are comparable to the CSI 300 Index, and you still say that there are no stocks to buy, so what are your self-selected stocks for? Is it for decoration?
6) Overconfidence when buying and panic after buying< p data-pid="Z3X8mENe">For example, a friend of mine asked me for stocks, so I recommended pork to him and explained the logic to him in detail. He is also very diligent, studying the pig cycle, pork price, number of slaughter and other data. But when he started to buy, he started making consecutive mistakes. I told him not to buy it all at once, but to be mentally prepared for the price of pigs to continue to pull back, but he bought 80% of the position at one time. After I bought it, the stock price continued to fall, and I was trapped, and I started to panic, so I went to Snowball every day to see other people's opinions on pork, and found that everyone was not optimistic about pork.My mind is even more nervous. Every day, he forwards various negative opinions to me and asks me what I think. His subconscious hope is that I will refute other people's opinions and prove that others are wrong and I am right, so that he can hold shares with peace of mind. I can only reply silently: "I didn't come to this market to argue with others, I came to make money. I want to focus on the core factors and ignore other factors."
His first mistake was to be overconfident in his own judgment in the first place. He thought that he had the ability to predict the price fluctuations of pigs (or that I had the ability to predict the fluctuations of pig prices), so he underestimated the risks when he came up, and he was all in. This phenomenon is very common in the futures market, especially for veterans in the industry, because they are very sensitive to the cyclical fluctuations of commodities in the industry, so they can often find that the industry turning point is approaching half a year ahead of the market. But this kind of overconfidence often kills them. In the futures market, if they enter the market half a year in advance, they will be liquidated.
The second mistake he made was when he realized that he was unable to predict the price of pigs, he began to pin his hopes on other investors in the market. Start looking for various "big Vs", "great gods" and "stock gods", look at their opinions, and hope to find life-saving straws from them. The reaction of the investors was no different from his. He lost money in his own stocks and began to lose confidence. He hurriedly went online to find a big v for diagnosis, and pinned his hopes of making money on the big v.
The third mistake he made was when he found that others had different views than him, he began to deny himself and planned to cut himself out. This is a human instinct, if people all over the world say that the sun rises from the west, only you insist that the sun rises from the east because your eyes tell it to be true. At this point, you will also change your mind and begin to wonder if there is something wrong with your eyes or if you have a mental illness. In the end, you will choose to compromise, and if you don't compromise, you will be regarded as an outlier, and the end will be worse.
Before you buy, you are full of confidence. After you buy it, you start to doubt your own judgment and start consulting with experts. If you find that the experts do not agree with your point of view, you will completely deny your previous judgment. , Cut the meat into shares. From conviction to doubt to denial, this is the meat-cutting trilogy. Exist in 90% of shareholders.
These phenomena are not only committed by ordinary shareholders, but also by fund managers. The difference is that fund managers will seek help from brokerage researchers instead of folk gods. But usually the result of the consultation is that the researcher of the securities company is not optimistic. Why? The current stock price has already reflected the market's mainstream views. If the market's mainstream views are very optimistic, will the stock price continue to fall? The views of securities brokerage researchers are the most mainstream views in this market.
7) Technical stop loss
Technical stop loss refers to the A stop loss, such as a breakout, is a 10% retracement from the high. Those who use technical stops are usually those who watch stocks every day, including half-baked and professional investors. Aunt rarely uses technical stop loss, because Aunt does not look at the market after being deeply trapped. In the end, you will find that the return rate of those half-baked and professional investors is not as good as that of the aunt.
This is perhaps the most controversial. Because all foreign technical textbooks have to say: Resolutely stop loss! I don't want to argue here, I just state my reasons, whether to believe in the textbook or in me, the reader decides for himself.
I never execute technical stops, I only use logical stops. If I sell a ticket, it must be because I find that my logic is wrong. If I think my logic is correct, then even if the stock falls by 50%, I will not sell it. Not only will I not sell, I will Instead, they will buy more and more. But once I find that my logical judgment is wrong, then I will cut it without hesitation. I will not care about the current stock price, and I will insist on selling even if it is profitable. In short, I trade stocks based on logic, not technical analysis.
The use of technical stop loss has a fatal disadvantage: stop loss in disguise encourages you to keep changing stocks, which is contrary to "specification" and is the road to failure for investors. If you don't care about your frequent stop loss, or even take pride in it, it means that your operating habits have been learned badly. People who often stop loss will treat the stock as a prostitute and enter the marketI didn't think about it at all before, thinking that "it's not right, I'll cut it", and regarded the business as a one-night stand. But stocks must be treated like choosing a wife. Once a wife is selected, she cannot change it. Once changed, the loss will be heavy. Therefore, you will be cautious before buying, consider all kinds of situations, and shop around before you buy. The key is that no one is perfect, and no stock is perfect. If you can't stand it and stop at every turn, you'll find that no matter what you buy, you end up with a stop-loss, because there are no perfect stocks in the market. Therefore , the original sin of technical stop loss is that it will make you cynical and impetuous. Only when you are forbidden to easily stop losses will you really use your brain to review stocks instead of your lower body.
8) Pursue certainty and buy point accuracy
This is an advanced Mistakes usually happen to experts.
What is the pursuit of certainty? That is, before buying a stock, all factors are considered, and eventually some factors are found to be nothing but certain. For example, when studying the pig cycle, the stock data of pigs is nothing but certainty. Since some factors are nothing but certainty, there will be hesitation in the shot, both ends of the first mouse. This kind of person can't really be a great person. Why, because he lacks the kind of decisiveness and imminence that a leader should have. If everything is waiting for you to figure it out, the daylily is cold. If all the factors are very clear, will the market still give you a chance to buy? That's not a day-to-day script. For example, when a new stock is listed for the first time, it is 100% sure that you will not lose money if you buy it, so it is impossible to give you the opportunity to buy it every day.
What is buy point accuracy? That is, if you want to buy it, it will rise, and as soon as you buy it, you will buy it at the lowest point of the market. This is a smart act. For example, I myself make this mistake occasionally. It was 2013, and the Shanghai Composite Index had broken down to 2,000 points. When I chatted with my brother-in-law, I mentioned the stock market. I told him that the index had fallen below 2,000 points. Don't be fooled, buy it and put it in those few years, it must be stronger than the bank interest. My brother-in-law agreed with me, so he bought it. But what about myself? I didn't buy it myself, why? Because I feel more professional, I have the ability to predict the precise point in time when the nadir will occur. As a result, the market started half a year earlier than I predicted. When I reacted, the index had reached 3000.
Fund managers are especially prone to this mistake. Because of performance pressure, fund managers can't bear to wait for 3 months - half a year to buy a ticket, so they always try to wait until the last minute to sell. For example, you tell him: the price of pork has already broken down the cost of farming. From a long-term perspective, the price of pork cannot always be maintained at the current price, and will definitely rise. The other party will say: Yes, I agree with you, but when will the price reverse? Maybe 3 months, or even half a year. Is it too early to get in?
I can't refute this point of view, because what he said is the truth, I am not God, how do I know that the price will reverse one day, I only know that this is history Near the outsole, the so-called “nearby” means that you can trade sideways at this position for another year and a half. After you buy it, you may have no profit for a year and a half, which is unacceptable to fund managers. But my experience tells me that not being smart is the smartest, and it's easier to make money by being vaguely right than by being precise.
9) Knowledge fragmentation
30% of investors in the market are actually more diligent and studious, and they are indeed constantly seeking to improve, reading the review diaries written by various Internet giants. But in the end, all of them will fail. The more you look, the higher the probability of failure. Isn't this a little ironic? The more you study hard, the easier it is to fail?
Why does this happen. Because everything on the Internet is fragmented, there is no complete system framework. It's like you learn a little Shaolin boxing, practice a little Wudang Qigong, and stealthily learn a little Emei swordsmanship, and finally make yourself nondescript and go crazy.
And many so-called big Vs on the Internet are actually half-baked. They have been investing in stocks for less than 5 years. After reading a few books on technical analysis, they came out and pretended to be crazy.ghost. What they write is like the flower boxing and embroidered legs of street performers, which is excellent for viewing, but zero for actual combat. If you read this kind of article all day, you will only be able to train yourself to be flamboyant, and the key is to feel good about yourself, thinking that if you use your gong, the other party will be shocked by you, the meridians will be cut off, and the seven orifices will bleed to death. As a result, as soon as he came on stage, he was punched KO, and he made an excuse when he lost: I didn't have enough breakfast today.
My suggestion is that if you want to learn, you should find a reliable person, learn a whole set of things from him, and absorb all his things. So much better than just wandering around all day. If you really can't find it, you can even read Buffett's Letter to Shareholders carefully a few times, and you can learn a lot.
10) Investing in stocks by thinking
Many investors buy and sell stocks without establishing It is based on fact, but on speculation. That is, it is not clear what is fact, what is reasoning, and what is obscenity. Always take lust as a basis for buying and selling. For example, "I think the broader market is about to pull back", "I think individual stocks have fallen in place, and here is the bottom." But you ask him to tell the basis, he can't tell, it's just an intuition.
Or far-fetched, for example, if the United States hits Syria, military stocks will rise. I don't see why the military stocks must rise, and it's not to fight China.
Or what the main force is. For example, this main force is deeply quilted, and the main force will inevitably lift up and liberate himself. Or the main force has been laid out and will be pulled up at any time. Brother, you can actually see through things that even the big data system of the exchange can't monitor. You are so talented, it's a waste of talents not to be the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
Many times, you will find that most investors are very similar to the three aunts and six women in the countryside. In the countryside, there are various local methods to treat cancer that lack factual basis, such as eating Guanyin soil and worshiping little ghosts. Investors have also invented all kinds of bizarre and imaginary methods of predicting stock price trends.
Question 1: After a sharply lower opening of 250 points, is it a step down? Don't guess the ups and downs in extreme market conditions, you just need to know that this kind of sharply lower opening Next, the gods are also set in it.
Question 2: Is there any sign of the rebound? At this moment, two rats are fighting each other The brave wins, and the fall may not necessarily be due to shorting power. Sometimes, short-covering will dominate the transaction behind the sharp drop, which means that the trading force has changed greatly after the drop, and the opportunity for a big counterattack lies in it.
Question 3: How strong will the rebound be once it starts to rebound. Each stock is different and needs to be treated differently. The strength of the rebound depends on the attitude of institutional funds, and their attitude can be clearly seen from the changes in institutional inventory. There are more and more orange institutional inventories in the fall, which means that the institutional behavior behind the decline is more and more active, and it will naturally rebound later, and the strength will be stronger.
Is financial speculation simple or complex?
Some traders say that he is complicated and can put out a lot of investment models with mathematical operations, so complicated that most people don't know what to do, some Traders say that he is simple, especially many trading masters, when they want to reveal their unique trading skills, they are always very modest and say that the market is very simple, and the trading techniques they use are only candlestick charts. Plus an average.
In fact, whether it is simple or complicated, financial speculation is ultimately a question of how to achieve stable growth of the capital yield curve. Growth is not the focus, stability is the key. Yes, so whether it is a black cat or a white cat, it is a good cat that can catch mice.
The stable growth of funds has an inescapable frame of time, because profits are accumulated from small losses and big wins, and it is impossible for any trader to do it right every time. Since there are right and wrong in a trade, the question that needs to be clarified is how long the trader can stably realize the total profit of the number of profits in a period of time that is greater than the total profit of the number of losses.
Explanation of the four laws of ambush daily limit:
The first rule: artificial daily limit
Why do you say this? Everyone must understand that any daily limit is of course man-made, because at this time it is estimated that a premise of the daily limit, let's look at the graph below.
In the above picture, if G point intervenes in this stock the next day, it can successfully ambush the three daily limit plates, so why can it be chasing up? Here we will talk about the following Second Law.
Second law: man-made, there must be traces
This law can be said to be the core of the chase , as long as it is man-made, it will inevitably leave traces of people, so investors can speculate on his methods and means based on the traces left, just like the police catching thieves. Next, let's look at the chart below.
Third Law: Where there are traces, there must be rules
There are very Good introduction, in fact, we all understand that behind every daily limit, there are actually main forces or bookmakers. Of course, there are various methods for them to pull the daily limit, which requires investors to be good at observation and research. You can find the methods used by the main dealers, and naturally you can find their daily limit rules. Once you find abnormal behavior, you can ambush the daily limit in the first time.
Fourth Law: If there is a rule, it must be replicated
There are often such investors in the stock market, The pre-market forecast is very accurate, but under the shadow of specific trading points and other factors, it may not necessarily be able to enter, so having a forecast does not mean entering, and knowing does not mean doing it. If you want to successfully replicate the daily limit of ambush, you need to do: follow the rules and practice the masters; follow the strong and diligently make the masters; follow the former and summarize the masters.