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Comments on the 2021 annual report and the 2022 first quarter report: the steady style continues, and the leader is stable and far-reaching

Release Time:2022-04-30 Topic:CITIC Securities Annual Report Reading:21 Navigation:Stock Liao information > Technology > Marketing > Comments on the 2021 annual report and the 2022 first quarter report: the steady style continues, and the leader is stable and far-reaching phone-reading

Featured Abstracts: (yoy-1.1/+0.02pct); 2022Q1 gross profit margin/net profit margin 49.8/29.4% (yoy-1.3/+2.1pct), outperforming comparable manufacturers , mainly due to the optimization of product structure, timely replenishment of raw material prices at a low price, and internal efficiency improvement and cost reduction. >

1. The company's 2021 revenue/return to parent profit is 2.16/370 million yuan (yoy+22.2/ 22.3%), of which 2021Q4 revenue/return to parent profit 6.3/210 million yuan (yoy+6.0/2.6%), the annual growth is relatively stable, the decline in 2021Q4 is due to the inter-period impact of raw materials and e-commerce revenue; 2022Q1 revenue/return to parent Profit was 410/120 million yuan, an increase of 12.2/20.9% year-on-year, and the performance slightly exceeded expectations.

2. As the penetration rate of integrated stoves continued to rise, the company, as an industry leader, Enjoy the track dividends, and the certainty of performance growth is high.

3. The company will be given 15 times PE in 2022, corresponding to a target price of 18 yuan, and maintain a “buy” rating.

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4. ▍The steady style continued, and the 2022Q1 results slightly exceeded expectations.

5. The company's revenue/profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is 2.16/370 million yuan (yoy+22.2/22.3%), of which 2021Q4 revenue/profit attributable to the parent is 6.3/210 million yuan (yoy+6.0/ 2.6%), the annual growth is relatively stable, the decline in 2021Q4 is due to the inter-period impact of raw materials and e-commerce revenue; 2022Q1 revenue / profit attributable to the parent is 4.1/120 million yuan, an increase of 12.2/20.9% year-on-year, and the revenue growth rate remains stable, The growth rate of performance is slightly higher than that of revenue, mainly due to the increase in other income such as software tax rebates.

6. ▍The industry has a broad space, and the leader enjoys preferential dividends.

7. According to Aowei data, the penetration rate of integrated stoves will increase from 2.1% in 2015 to 12.4% in 2021. The industry is growing rapidly but is still in the import stage, and the steady-state penetration rate may increase to 30%. %-40%, the steady state space is considerable.

8. The company is the founder of the integrated stove , with in-depth brand awareness and deep channel heritage, the sales volume will rank first in the industry in 2021.

9. As a leader, the company is expected to fully enjoy the industry dividend in the future, with a contract liability of 1.3 in 2022Q1 100 million yuan (yoy+54%), The enthusiasm for delivery of goods downstream is relatively high, which has laid a good start for the whole year.

10. ▍The pressure of raw materials is effectively hedged, and the profit level is relatively stable.

11. 2021, the company’s gross/net profit margin is 51.7/30.7% (yoy-1.1 /+0.02pct); 2022Q1 gross profit margin/net profit margin was 49.8/29.4% (yoy-1.3/+2.1pct), outperforming comparable manufacturers, mainly due to product structure optimization, low raw material prices and timely replenishment of inventory, and internal efficiency improvement and cost reduction , in 2022Q1, the company's sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratio is 11.1/4.7/3.3/-1.2% (yoy-1.3/0.3/-0.3/-0.3pct), with effective cost control and improved net profit margin. Profitability levels may remain stable.

12. ▍The brand empowers the terminal, and the omni-channel penetration is accelerated.

13. MarketingEnd: In order to better grasp the window period of brand building, the company may effectively increase the investment in marketing in 2022, and enable in-depth distribution of the end.

14. Channel side: the company establishes and improves the "online + monopoly + emerging" trinity Channel system, 1) The online team has nearly 100 people, effectively covering major platforms such as Tmall, JD.com, Suning and Douyin; 2) The exclusive dealers continue to grow, and the number of first-level dealers will reach more than 1,900 by the end of 2021; 3) The emerging channels are fast Develop, and establish cooperative relations with well-known building materials (Macalline, Juran), KA (Suning, Gome), home improvement (Yezhifeng, Xingyi, Dianshi) and real estate companies (New Hope, China Construction First Bureau), future orders Is expected to increase volume.

15. ▍Risk ​​factors: local epidemics repeatedly exceeded expectations; raw material price hikes exceeded expectations; real estate industry downturn exceeded expectations; integrated stove industry competition exceeded expectations; less than expected.

16. ▍Investment advice: As the penetration rate of integrated stoves continues to rise, the company, as an industry leader, is expected to enjoy preferential track dividends by relying on brand empowerment and deep penetration through omni-channels , the certainty of performance growth is high.

17. Considering that the company strengthens marketing and actively responds to market competition, the company's 2022/23/24 EPS forecast is adjusted to 1.20/1.38/1.58 yuan (the original forecast was 1.18 yuan) /1.33 yuan, the new EPS forecast for 2024 is 1.58 yuan), and the current price corresponds to PE11/10/9 times.

18. Considering that the company's performance in the next three years is expected to reach a CAGR of 15%, the company will be given 15 times PE in 2022, corresponding to a target price of 18 yuan, and maintain a "buy" rating .

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