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Alibaba Group will invest 100 billion yuan to help common prosperity. What information should we pay attention to?

Release Time:2022-04-25 Topic:Buy 100,000 Alibaba shares in 2014 Reading:118 Navigation:Stock Liao information > internationality > Alibaba Group will invest 100 billion yuan to help common prosperity. What information should we pay attention to? phone-reading

understand why Germany was not killed by the Plaza Accord, and then understand why my country wants to pursue common prosperity

We all know that after the Plaza Accord, Japan's economy went awry soon after, and then languished for many years.

But there is a problem here. Like Japan, Germany and Japan were both pressed by the United States to sign the Plaza Accord, and their economies were hit hard. Why does Germany seem to have Slow down, but Japan's influence is so great, where is the problem?

When I was reading the economic history of Germany in the past two days, I suddenly figured out this issue, and when I understood it, everyone understood why our country So persistent in pursuing common prosperity.

But before this topic starts, in order to prevent everyone from not understanding, I still want to explain a little bit about what the "Plaza Agreement" is.

1. Plaza Accord

This is mainly related to the rapid catch-up of the Japanese economy Everyone knows that Japan's post-war economic development was very fast. On the one hand, the American big brother opened up the Western market to them, that is, the things produced in Japan can be sold to the West, which solved the demand-side problem; on the other hand, the West also transferred He gave Japan some funds and technology, and asked him to hurry up and contain the Soviet Union and China, which solved Japan's supply-side problem. The time and place are right and the people are all gathered together.

Therefore, Japan achieved an annual growth rate of more than 8% from the "World War II" to 1973. After a year of slowdown in 1974, there was a second round of growth. continued until around 1990. At the same time, the situation in Germany and Japan was similar, and it was also developing rapidly. The United States was going to repair them, but as the Iron Curtain of the Cold War fell, it happened to land on their doorstep, so the United States had to help them get up and work in the Soviet Union.

But under the shadow of growth, Japan is facing the same problem as my country is now: in foreign trade, Japan has taken advantage of the Americans and has always had trade Surplus, can this American endure? The same is true in Germany. The things produced in Germany are much better than those in the United States. Americans also think that Germany has taken advantage of them, and even once they were not allowed to sell cars in the United States.

Slowly, the United States became more and more irritable, and conflicts between the United States, Japan, and the United States continued. For more than 30 years, the "textile war" and the "steel trade war" continued to break out. ", "color TV friction", "automobile trade friction", we can also see from this process that the economies of Japan and Germany are continuing to upgrade.

Trade frictions are frictions, and you are the ones who rub against you. Japan is getting more and more powerful during the tossing process of the United States. In the 1980s, Japan became the second largest economy in the world. In fact, many Japanese companies have achieved the world's first.

Japan holds a lot of money from trade in its hands. It is very cool to buy land and assets all over the world, and the per capita income of Japan is 145% of that of the United States. GDP accounts for 15% of the world, more than the sum of Germany and France. It can be said that it is a real power in every angle. At the same time, Germany became the leader in Europe. At that time, France also achieved a bunch of important technological breakthroughs through the power of the whole country. They began to threaten the influence of the United States in Europe.

in thisIn the background, the Americans couldn't bear it anymore and were ready to clean up Germany and Japan, and there was a post-Plaza Accord. However, it is not that the "Plaza Agreement" that everyone said in the past directly fell to Japan. This is too simplistic.

At that time, the United States accused Japan of manipulating the exchange rate every day. Interestingly, the United States is now also accusing China of manipulating the exchange rate, saying that Japan deliberately lowered its own exchange rate. However, this matter did not wrong Japan, the Japanese government did keep the exchange rate very low at that time. Ordinary Japanese people buy American things at a huge price, but they basically don't buy American things. Americans buy Japanese things at a huge price, and they consume Japanese products like crazy. How can they not have a trade surplus?

So the United States asked Japan and Germany to sharply increase the exchange rate, so that Japanese and German products will be very expensive when sold internationally, and American products will not be so completely uncompetitive. .

In the past, we said that Japan was forced to raise the exchange rate in the "Plaza Accord". In fact, this is definitely not true, because the United States has a long-term relationship with Japan, and the "Plaza Accord" is only a part of it. The real situation is that the United States has been engaging with Japan since 1971 and has been engaging in it until 1987.

First, in 1971, the finance ministers of ten western countries worked together to create a "Smith Agreement" to demand the appreciation of the yen. Then continue to put pressure on, and keep making small fights.

In 1985, the five finance ministers from the United States, Britain, Germany, France and Japan signed the Plaza Accord at the Plaza Hotel in New York, USA.

The Plaza Accord was followed by the Louvre Accord in 1987, the core of which was the appreciation of the yen and the German mark, and the products of Japan and Germany after the appreciation. It is not so competitive internationally. Well, now the United States is also doing this to our country.

Under pressure, and the Japanese government really wanted the yen to be internationalized at that time, the yen appreciated significantly. However, the appreciation of the yen means that the automobiles and color TVs produced in Japan become more expensive, and their competitiveness in the world is not so strong. Therefore, in 1986, the growth rate of Japanese exports plummeted from the previous 3.9% to -16.8%. Things that were sold overseas can't be sold now. Germany is similar. After the agreement was signed, exports plummeted, and GDP growth in the following years was also cut in half.

The problem is that Germany and Japan are both industrial countries and also producing countries. The products produced cannot be sold and accumulated in the warehouse. The loan interest alone can make a large Some companies have closed down, what should I do? Can't rot in a pot, can it? Germany and Japan are panicking about this.

2. Japan's countermeasures

Japan's solution to this matter is to prepare The common people consume excess production capacity.

But the Japanese people only have so much money, and now they have to spend more to consume excess production capacity, but how can they be made to spend more? The Japanese government thought about it, and finally came up with an idea to cut interest rates and lower reserve requirements and the central bank to release water.

The interest rate cut is easy to understand and easy to understand. It is complicated and complicated. The intuitive feeling is that you pay less interest on the bank loan, and you can borrow more money. Spend more money. And the interest affects the investment target. For example, if you originally wanted to invest millions to open a restaurant, the rate of return is only 4%. If the interest is 5%, you may put the money in the bank. After all, lying down is better than investing. You make money, so what are you investing in? If the interest rate is cut to 1% now, it will not be worth saving money. It is better to invest it, jobs will be created, and the common people will increase their wages.

So after the Japanese government cut interest rates, the market is indeed full of hot money, not only Japanese money, but also a lot of hot money from the United States poured into Japan to invest.

How about the effect?

Very bad.

As we all know, the bank is the most dislike of the poor and loves the rich. It lends money to you, and it all needs to be mortgaged. You have tens of millions of houses, and it lends freely. give you millions. If you have no money and want to borrow some, the bank will kick you out with a few words, and you have no mortgage to talk about wool.

This is equivalent to a lot of money in the hands of the rich. Will they buy TVs, refrigerators and washing machines? Who would spend millions on these things?

Everyone should know a common sense, the way of spending "big money" and "small money" is not the same thing. Go to improve your life, eat something good, buy an electrical appliance or something, mainly for consumption. But if you have more than tens of millions of bank loans on your account, you can't spend food and drink, you can only invest, if you invest in building a factory, it's fine, but Japan was overcapacity at that time, and there were too many factories, so basically Invested in real estate and the stock market.

We all know what happened next. The rich in Japan went crazy to buy assets such as houses and stocks, and then the prices of these assets began to rise. When the middle class saw that the housing price and the stock market were rising, they quickly mortgaged the house and bought it. They borrowed more money from the bank, and the housing price and stock price were further pushed up. In this way, the Japanese flew up when they stepped on the right foot. The country is booming. Does this scene look familiar?

But the Japanese government panicked to death, because they knew that the purpose of cutting interest rates was not to boost housing prices, but to digest excess capacity for companies, which are not digested now. , companies have gone to take out loans to speculate in stocks and real estate, what should we do these days?

The Bank of Japan then modestly raised interest rates starting in 1989 and lowered the money supply. By the end of 1989, Mie Noyasu, the famous "crazy primitive man" in Japanese history, became the governor of the Bank of Japan. Why is he called "the primitive man"? Because this Japanese economic wizard who grew up in Northeast China hated speculation very much. At that time, mainstream Japanese economists thought that speculation was market behavior and that the market could not be wrong. Therefore, they regarded Mie No Yasushi, who hated speculation, as a primitive man and regarded him as a Chinese The poison of the planned economy. Why do you say he is crazy? Because his style is extremely resolute and even a little reckless.

After he came to power, Japan raised the interest rate five times. Finally, in August 1990, Japan's interest rate increased from an ultra-low 2.5% It has soared to 6%, and the banks have stopped releasing water. This is going to cause trouble. The stock market and the housing market have been cut off from the money supply.

The stock market crash followed, with the Japanese stock market more than halved in the three years from 1990 to 1992.

The stock market was so miserable, and the property market did not escape. Only half a year after the stock market plummeted, the property market also began to falter, and then fell sharply. In the three years from 1990 to 1992, it also It fell by 46%, and the assets of trillions of yen were wiped out.

I recently read a material that said that before Yasushi Mie, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve was called Volcker. He was also a strong man. After three years of depression, Volcker is generally considered to be the greatest Fed chairman in American history, with the determination of a strong man to break his wrist. Mie Nokang is obviously going to be the next Volcker.

Of course, this is not the end. Since 1992, housing prices in Japan have been falling, and the cumulative drop has dropped by 50%. I checked it just now, and it is still falling. However, the reason for the continued decline is generally believed to be due to the aging problem in Japan. Every year, people who die vacate more houses than newlyweds who buy houses and get married. It is a ghost that houses can be sold for high prices.

3. German countermeasures

After reading Japan's, let's look at Germany's, in fact Germany had nothing to do. At that time, the two of them were engaged by the United States together, and their exports plummeted, and they were both thinking about solutions.

However, the Germans have a painful experience of inflation, and are more sensitive to sharply cutting interest rates and printing money, so they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates.

But luckily for Germany, the two Germanys were unified.

Let me talk a little about the reunification of the two Germanys. After World War II, Germany was divided into two parts, East Germany and West Germany, half of which belonged to the West, also called the Federal Republic of Germany ; half to the Soviet Union, also called the GDR. But by 1990,The Soviet Union saw that the situation was over, and the people of the two Germanys had a high voice for reunification, so the matter of the reunification of the two Germanys began to be discussed.

But don't make a mistake about the reunification of Germany. All Western countries, such as Britain, France and the United States, do not want Germany to be unified, because if it is truly unified, After a few years of development, it will become a pole of Europe, and the United States can no longer control it, and Britain and France have to look at him.

But at that time, Western Europe was all allies. They were too embarrassed to intervene directly. Everyone expected the Soviet Union to repair Germany, but the Soviet Union said nothing and watched Germany unify. On the contrary, the West almost died of anger. At that time, the French president couldn't hold back and said on the spot, "How many marks did the leaders of the Soviet Union accept? Why didn't they send troops to prevent the reunification of Germany?"

Why did the Soviet Union not care? Because the Soviet Union is an alliance of a bunch of allied countries, the national anthem is called "Unbreakable Alliance". The largest member of the alliance is Russia. Russia has always felt that it is at a disadvantage in the alliance. By 1990, Russia wanted to run away. Moreover, the "runaways" are already full of the top leaders of the CPSU. They can't wait to see all their allies run away, so that Russia will get away smoothly, so of course they will not care about the reunification of the two Germanys.

Furthermore, what the French say is quite right, the Russians have indeed received countless money from West Germany, and the Germans have money, and feel that if the problem can be solved with money, it is not a problem, They are willing to pay sky-high prices for the reunification of the two Germanys. In addition, the West Germans also offered lucrative offers to the Russians, such as announcing the permanent abandonment of Kaliningrad.

Kaliningrad used to be called Königsberg, once the capital of East Prussia and the hometown of Kant, probably equivalent to Shaanxi Or Shandong's position in China was taken away by the Soviet Union after the "World War II", and it is still in Russia, not connected to Russian territory. Before the reunification of the two Germanys, the Germans said they didn't want that territory. They only wanted East Germany, and Russia didn't want to stay in East Germany. They collected money and kept Kaliningrad forever.

Then Germany was unified. After the reunification, a huge market and human resource pool suddenly appeared in Germany. A large number of cheap and highly educated workers joined the German market. As a result, the wages of German workers fell sharply, and the cost of manufacturing also fell.

Not only that, the economic gap between East Germany and West Germany is huge. In order to relieve East Germany, the new German government passed a tax increase agreement, levying taxes on the rich and rich states. Taxes to subsidize the original East German regions. After the income of the East Germans increased, they had to buy cars and TVs. In this way, the Germans themselves increased a large amount of domestic demand and supplemented a part of their consumption power. The part of the production capacity that could not be sold was digested by East Germany.

Speaking of this, there may be some friends who don’t quite understand. Why can the redistribution of wealth within a country promote consumption?

It's not complicated. For example, China has this problem now. The very rich people almost don't consume Chinese industrial products. They mainly buy all kinds of high-end gadgets. Most of the income is spent on assets, and only a few dollars are spent on consumption. If part of their wealth transfer payments go to the poor (of course, it must be clearly transferred in the form of legal taxation, otherwise it is easy to cause problems), the poor's life will improve, and the poor can't pay more than 2,000 yuan per month. Buying luxury goods mainly consumes my country's production capacity, and can also restrain asset prices from rising.

This logic was later called "Balance Strategy", rather than simply operating like Japan.

However, Japan has no tricks. Japan does not have such a large amount of foreign resources, so naturally it cannot operate like Germany.

Looking further down this logic, everyone will understand why Germany has been accepting Muslim refugees all these years. Although the German people are reluctant, Germany is a capital In a socialist country, national policies must take into account the ideas of big capitalists, so the introduction of Muslims is not Merkel's idea alone, but their national strategy.

They are constantly bringing in educated Muslims, then throughSubsidized and re-educated to allow them to become German workers, which can both supplement cheap labor and provide domestic demand.

But the Plaza Protocol has a side effect.

At that time, both Germany and Japan had to work hard to reduce manufacturing costs. Germany's solution was to move part of the manufacturing industry to East Germany and other Eastern European countries, where people had low wages and low costs.

The same is true for Japan. In order to enhance the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and reduce costs, Japan urgently needed to move its factories to low-cost places, and many factories were moved to the coast of China. At that time, China was in urgent need of foreign exchange, and this part of the industrial transfer also helped a lot. You may not believe it. Before that, China exchanged foreign currency mainly by selling oil and coal to Japan. At that time, China was a "resource country", and then it upgraded to low-end manufacturing. In recent years, it has developed to high-end manufacturing. .

However, most of Japan went to Southeast Asia, which is the Four Little Tigers of Asia. However, after the financial crisis in 1998, the Four Little Tigers were slaughtered by European and American capital. The capitalists found that the governments of Southeast Asian countries were too weak. The capitalists saw that these countries could not provide a stable environment. China just joined the WTO, and low-end production capacity came to China. .

Some people say, will Southeast Asia absorb China's manufacturing industry? This question is asked the other way round. In fact, China has sucked up manufacturing in Southeast Asia in history, and now China is also shifting out less profitable production capacity.

4, Compare my country

Compare the above logics with my country, you can It is found that my country is also facing the problems of Japan and Germany.

We have always said that my country's economy depends on the troika, export, investment, and domestic demand. Not much to say about exports, it will be a long-term weakening process in the future.

Not only that, if you usually pay attention to the stock market, you will know that the price of raw materials is soaring now, and the raw materials are mainly in the hands of Australia. Behind those resource companies in Australia are the United States and the United States. The Japanese capital holds the capital, and the price of resources rises. Looking at my country's export development, it is very good, but most of it is made by raw materials, which means that the money is made by Europe and the United States. The profits of our manufacturing industry are now very, very thin.

And the return on investment faces a problem of "diminishing marginal returns", which is easy to understand, early investment in infrastructure or something It is the icing on the cake now. For example, in the early years, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway was invested. This railway line has large traffic and high income, but now the main road has almost been repaired. Big investment, very low ROI.

Going around, there is only one way to expand domestic demand, and there are two ways to expand domestic demand. One is to expand through monetary policy and put a lot of money in the market. The water that everyone borrowed for consumption, that is, the route of Japan, the result was that the asset bubble was too large, and in the end, everyone could not borrow money and the whole collapsed.

In fact, the essence of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 was that the government encouraged the poor people to take out loans, which later caused a systemic crisis.

my country has been determined to deleverage in the past two years, especially this year, if you deal with banks, you can feel that credit control is very strict. The goal of the approach is the same, and they all hope to reduce debt, speculation and bubbles, but that person is called an economic wizard, but he does things to the extreme.

Another method is the German method. The country takes the initiative to transfer, reduce the gap between the rich and the poor, allow the grassroots people to have money to consume, stimulate domestic demand, and continue to produce only with consumption. This logic listens to It sounds strange, but the market economy is just like that, with consumption first and production last. This is why our country used to need Americans to buy our things before we could produce.

The income level of my country's first-tier cities is close to that of developed countries, but there are still many places that are still underdeveloped areas, like the relationship between West Germany and East Germany?

In addition, Germany has always focused on Europe and Eastern Europe, and its dependence on the United States is not as great as that of Japan. How similar is development to trade in Southeast Asia.

And the German logic also has the advantage of avoiding the skyrocketing house prices and stock prices. When such things skyrocket, everyone will borrow money to hype them, and they should be spending in the end. All the money is spent on such assets, and it is very easy to get into trouble. However, in recent years, the aging of Eastern Europe has been very serious, and Germany’s investment rate of return in Eastern Europe has not increased. It has begun to speculate on its own real estate, superimposed on the release of US dollars, and German housing prices have been rising.

I understand this, and then look at my country's continuous policy this year to suppress housing prices, promote common prosperity, and improve the fiscal and taxation system. Obviously, it is following the German route and avoiding Japan. The pit, and compared with Germany, our biggest advantage is that the depth is much larger than theirs, and the space is much larger, which should be used especially.

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