The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the 2009 "Social Blue Book" on the 15th, and held a report meeting on China's social situation. Li Peilin, editor-in-chief of "Social Blue Book" and chief report of "Social Blue Book" in 2009, introduced that the Beijing Olympics did not have as much impact on China's economy as other countries, but he did not expect the subsequent international financial crisis to have such a profound impact on China. .
According to Li Peilin, this year is the 17th time that an analysis report on the social situation has been continuously released. In this year's situation, the first is that economic development is the foundation of social development and social stability, so the analysis of the social situation should be closely linked with the economic analysis. In 2008, from the current point of view, it is expected that GDP growth will probably reach about 9.5%. This year's impact on the economy has several special factors, one is the snow disaster, the second is the impact after the Olympic Games, and the third is the impact of the international financial crisis and domestic cycles.
Until the first half of the year, we believed that the first two factors were the main influences. We did not expect that the latter factors would have such a significant impact in the near future, which was unexpected. Looking at it now, due to the massive earthquake in Wenchuan, Sichuan, and the impact of ice and snow disasters, disaster relief, and storms encountered across the country at the beginning of the year, the losses caused by disaster relief, snow disasters, and ice disasters across the country this year have reached 1 trillion yuan. Our initial estimate of the Wenchuan disaster in Sichuan was only 400 billion, but the final estimate doubled to more than 800 billion. But such losses are mainly the loss of stock wealth, of course, due to the earthquake disaster also caused some enterprises to stop production. But in general, since the proportion of Sichuan's total economic output in the country is not high, and it is mainly due to the loss of stock, the impact on economic growth is not fundamental.
Li Peilin said that the so-called post-Olympic influence, in the 1964 Tokyo Olympics, Japan's GDP increased by 11.2% that year, but fell to 5.7% in four years. In the 1988 Seoul Olympics, South Korea's GDP growth rate reached 10.5% that year, but fell to 6.1% the following year. So this is called by many scholars as the "post-Olympic benefit". Of course, these two Olympic Games have also become landmark events for these countries to modernize.
China holds the Olympic Games, and everyone has great expectations, thinking that this is a landmark event in China's modernization. But there are also concerns about the post-Olympics. For example, in the 2004 Athens Olympic Games, 16 days later, the entire Greece was in debt for 10 years. There have also been a series of riots in Greece recently, and these events have something to do with fiscal debt.
However, the Olympic Games in Beijing are quite different. From 2002 to 2007, Beijing's annual investment in the Olympic Games was less than 1% of the national investment in fixed assets, and the completed area of the Beijing Olympic Games was 71% More than 10,000 square meters, only equivalent to 0.01% of the national average housing area in 2007. Since China is a huge economy, and the economic aggregates of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei only account for 11% and 10% of China's GDP and industrial output, respectively, the impact of the Olympic Games on China is not as big as other countries. For example, when the Olympic Games were held in Seoul that year, Seoul's GDP accounted for more than 50% of the country's GDP.
Li Peilin said, but we did not expect that the subsequent international financial crisis had such a profound impact on China, especially since October, the impact has been deepening day by day. He said that in the past 30 years of reform and opening up, GDP growth has generally experienced three peak growth cycles, one in 1983, 1984, and 1985, and the second in 1992, 1993, and 1994. Big up. Since 2003, the GDP growth has again reached over 10%, and from 2003 to 2007, the growth rate of over 10% has been running at a high speed for five consecutive years. This is a five-year high-speed growth cycle that has not occurred since the reform and opening up.
So in early 2007, some scholars were optimistic, that the new growth cycle may last ten to twenty years. But 2007 showed the profound impact of globalization on China, and the growth of GDP is now fluctuating. At the end of 2007, it was felt that although the growth rate had declined, it could only drop to 10.5 at most. But looking at it now, it will probably drop to 9.5%. That is to say, in one year, the growth rate of GDP dropped by more than 2 percentage points, which has not happened in the past ten years.
In addition to the impact of the financial crisis, there are also cyclical impacts of the Chinese economy. That is to say, if there was no financial crisis, GDP growth in 2008 would have also declined slightly due to the cyclical effect, which started in May and was already shown in the middle of the year. For example, from January to May, the locomotives of economic growth, that is, the regions where the engine is located, including Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, and Tianjin, had their GDP growth rates dropped to the bottom 10 of 31 provinces and municipalities across the country. Although there are also some provinces, such as Inner Mongolia, whose GDP grew by as much as 28% in the first five months, these regions partly act as an engine because their economy does not account for such a large proportion of the country's total. Especially Shanghai, when Shanghai fell below the national average GDP growth rate, which has not happened in 16 years. Therefore, these factors have determined that China's economic growth this year is a relatively volatile year.
At the same time, another factor is price. At the beginning of the year, I did not worry about the price factor. At that time, it was proposed to prevent the economy from overheating and to prevent price inflation. In the middle of the year, it is proposed to maintain growth, but at the same time to control the growth of prices. But recently, prices have fallen very fast. For example, CPI, which means that the consumer price index has only increased by 2.4% in November, so next year is probably not a question of preventing inflation, but whether it is necessary to prevent deflation.
Therefore, the changes in many factors this year are all ups and downs, which are very unpredictable. Including oil prices, which hit as high as $147 a barrel in July, have now fallen below $40. These factors have determined that this year is a very extraordinary year. Therefore, with regard to prices, a large-scale sample survey was conducted across the country from May to July, and it showed that residents believed that the most serious problem this year was the price problem, but a very big change has taken place since then.
The second aspect is that the bumper harvest of food has stabilized the society. This year, the international grain price once soared, so the turmoil in the international grain market has also had a great impact on China. But this year, the weather conditions are relatively good, mainly because the central government has increased its investment in rural areas, especially the direct subsidies for grain and seeds, which have promoted grain production. Therefore, this year's grain has achieved five consecutive years of growth. Especially in 2008, the national grain output is expected to reach 515 million tons, which may exceed the highest level in history reached in 1998 and 2007. Food security and the country's steady and rapid economic development have created basic conditions. Of course, the state now pays great attention to ensuring the increase of farmers' production and income, and to prevent the occurrence of no increase in production and income.
In the third aspect, residents' income and consumption continued to grow. This year, it is estimated that the per capita disposable income of urban residents will increase by about 7%, and the per capita net income of farmers will also increase by about 7%. But income growth in towns and cities has halved from last year's growth rate. There is also a situation this year, that is, it may be the first time in more than 20 years that the growth rate of farmers' income is similar to that of urban areas, both around 7%. Because in the past, urban income growth was 4 or 5 percentage points faster than rural income growth.
The only data that does not show a significant decline is the total retail sales of consumer goods. Looking at it now, the total retail sales of social consumer goods for the whole year can increase by about 20%. As you will see, other curves have fluctuated greatly this year, but the total amount of social consumer goods still increased by 20.8% year-on-year until November. This also shows that, including before the financial crisis, the central government has adopted policies to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand, and these policies have initially shown results.
The fourth aspect is that social security coverage continues to expand. As we all know, the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to establish a social security system covering both urban and rural areas. It should be said that this is another major step in rural policy after the abolition of the agricultural tax. In the past two years, we have accelerated in this regard. One is the subsistence allowance. This year, the national minimum living guarantee covers 23 million people in cities and towns. This figure has not changed much in the past five years. The average standard is about 200 yuan per person per month.. But the bigger one is the rural subsistence allowance. The number of people covered has increased rapidly in recent years. This year, it is expected to increase to 40 million people throughout the year. The guarantee standard is about 80 yuan per capita per month.
This year, the new rural cooperative medical care system was implemented, which has covered 98% of the counties and cities in the country, and more than 800 million farmers have been protected. There are also 229 new cities in the pilot program of basic medical insurance for urban residents this year, covering more than 70 million people. By next year, this policy will cover more than 600 cities across the country. The basic coverage of medical insurance for urban workers is also expanding, with nearly 200 million people insured.
The fifth aspect, the rural pension system is being actively explored. More than 300 counties in 25 provinces and municipalities including Beijing, Jiangsu and Shanxi are now conducting pilot projects of new rural endowment insurance, and 7.6 million farmers have already participated in the insurance. 2008 is the fourth consecutive year that the basic pension of enterprise retirees has been adjusted, that is to say, the central plan is to raise the wage standard of enterprise retirees for six consecutive years. This includes the first three years and the new three years, and this year is the first year of the new three-year adjustment. More than 42 million corporate retirees across the country will benefit from this adjustment.
In addition, the education cause pays more attention to social justice. We know that following the exemption of tuition and miscellaneous fees for compulsory education in rural areas, in the fall of 2008, tuition and miscellaneous fees for urban compulsory education students began to be exempted nationwide. There are already more than 28 million primary and secondary school students in the country, who can be exempted from paying 190 to 350 yuan per year. Fees ranging from dollars. In addition, this year's education for the children of migrant workers has also stipulated that public schools can undertake their educational obligations in the reserved land. Third, in order to guarantee the new mechanism of rural compulsory education funding, the central government has allocated special funds to ensure the long-term continuity of the mechanism for exempting rural compulsory education from increasing costs. In addition, from 2007 to 2008, we have piloted student loans in 5 provinces and cities, and now more than 110,000 students have received loan assistance.
The sixth aspect, the more obvious new phenomenon this year is the rapid development of civil society and the markedly enhanced civic awareness. First, by the first three quarters of 2008, there were 382,000 NGOs registered nationwide, and the concepts of NGOs and social organizations were basically integrated. Among the 382,000 non-governmental organizations, there are more than 200,000 social organizations, 170,000 private non-enterprise units, and more than 1,300 foundations, an increase of about 6% over last year.
In addition, trade unions were released quickly. The total number of trade union members nationwide has reached nearly 200 million, a net increase of more than 16 million for four consecutive years. The national union membership rate has reached 71.4%, and more than 60 million migrant workers have joined the union. 73.6% and 69.1% of the labor unions of foreign-funded enterprises and domestic private enterprises are formed respectively.
In addition, in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, more than 10 million volunteers participated in various earthquake relief efforts nationwide. During the Beijing Olympic Games, a total of 70,000 volunteers directly provided services for the Olympic Games, 400,000 urban volunteers provided urban volunteer services in the city and around the venues, and more than 1 million social volunteers provided volunteer services in communities throughout Beijing. These services have enabled China's civil society to gradually grow.
The seventh aspect is the possible consequences and impacts of this international crisis and economic situation on society. Now more obvious, one is the impact on fiscal revenue. As we all know, in recent years, after a wave of rapid growth, the fiscal year has been increasing by 20% and 30% every year. However, since this year, especially since October, the downward trend has become more obvious. Now there has been a nationwide negative growth in fiscal revenue, and some cities, such as Shanghai, have relatively large negative growth. Because China's fiscal structure is relatively complex, this also refers to the fiscal position within the budget. In addition, there were extra-budgetary fiscal revenue in the disposable funds of local governments, and in some cities at that time, the land transfer fee had not been included in the finance. Therefore, the decline in the government's disposable financial resources will have an impact, because we need to expand domestic demand now, and financial resources are needed in all aspects, so this will create financial constraints in expanding domestic demand.
2009-04-18 | Add comment | Reward
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