Shenwan Hongyuan2moon12Kangmei Research Report issued by Sun
2moon12dayKangmei Pharmaceutical’s high volume daily limit, with an all-day turnover of 3.233 billion, is extremely strong. Many investors have inquired. Kangmei can be ignored by the market in stages, but it cannot be forgotten by the market forever. 2015 will be a big year for Kangmei’s stock price performance. .
Kangmei's heavy volume daily limit yesterday,The direct catalyst is the company's spot trading platform for bulk medicinal materials(EMedicine Valley)since1moon初成交额突然巨幅放量,The daily turnover has exceeded20100 million,In the detailed analysis of KangmeiEmedicineBefore starting the valley business, it is necessary to analyze Kangmei's huge investment and strategic layout in the Chinese herbal medicine industry chain in recent years.
中medicine材流通行业传统模式:中medicine材有非常明显of道地属性,medicine农将中medicine材销售给小medicine贩子,小medicine贩子再销售给medicine材经销商,临近中medicine材产业因为历史原因Naturally, seventeen national medicinal material trading markets with their own characteristics and a large number of seasonal medicinal materials trading markets have been formed in the country. With the characteristics of "national sales" and "one-season production, year-round sales", there are a large number of physical trading links in the circulation of traditional Chinese medicinal materials.
Kangmei在medicine材产地战略性布局medicine材种植:Acquired Jilin Xinkaihe successively(Jilin)medicine业和集安大地参业,Jilin新开河是国内红参第一品牌,Brands with scarcityIn terms of attributes, Kangmei has acquired 6 million top-quality wild ginseng plants with more than 15 years of age, and controls the resources; Ji'an Dadi Ginseng Industry has the best technology for planting ginseng on the ground, and the current ginseng planting area has exceeded 10,000 mu. Due to the constraints of natural resources, ginseng resources will be scarce in the future. Similar to the ginseng model, Kangmei has successively carried out industrial planting of more than ten medicinal materials such as Panax notoginseng, chrysanthemum, honeysuckle, and Huai yam. The planting of medicinal materials takes a long time, and capital precipitation and investment are required in the early stage.
Kangmei在中medicine城交易市场of战略布局:传统of中medicine材交易市场具备medicine材交易集散地of功能,Kangmei successively acquired Bozhou、Puning、Yulin、Yushu、青海等多个中medicine材交易市场, Reached a strategic acquisition agreement with Anguo Market. The Chinese herbal medicine trading market project is the investment project with the most capital cost and the most controversial market. At present, only the first phase of Bozhou has been delivered for use, and the second phase of Bozhou and most shops in Puning have completed pre-sale. In 2015, the construction of Yulin, Xining and other projects will be focused. The Yulin project is expected to recover funds from the middle of 2016 and the end of 2015. It is more than enough to invest in the rolling development of new markets in the future, and it is expected to generate positive cash flow in the second half of 2016.
中medicine材交易市场of真正价值是管理权:中medicine材交易市场项目本身作为商业地产看待无可厚非,但真正价值最大of是取得中medicine材交易市场of管理权。 With the management right of the market, through a certain period of hard work, it is expected to achieve "unified warehousing, unified logistics, and unified quality inspection" in the future, and a new profit model of Chinese herbal medicines will be derived in the future. In order to achieve "unified warehousing and unified logistics" and meet the circulation characteristics of Chinese medicinal materials, it is essential to build a large-scale primary processing and storage base of medicinal materials adjacent to the industry in the Chinese medicinal materials trading market project.
中medicine材资源、中medicine材交易市场、中medicine材仓储与物流为中medicine材电子化交易(EMedicine Valley)foreshadowing:We believe,Kangmei在中medicine材资源、中medicine材交易市场、中medicine材The layout of the core circulation links such as warehousing and logistics has finally been improved in the electronic trading of Chinese medicinal materials, and the circulation industry model of Chinese medicinal materials has been innovated: medicinal farmers-preliminary processing base of medicinal materials in origin-medicinal material storage base-traditional market of traditional Chinese medicinal materials-E medicine valley.
The prototype of Kangmei's strategic layout in the supply chain of Chinese medicinal materials has been completed. In the next few years, each core industry link will be refined, deeply and thoroughly. With the construction of the city project and cash collection, Kangmei's most expensive projects in the upstream industry chain of Chinese medicinal materials will be able to realize the rolling use of funds, and the demand for incremental cash will drop significantly.
EMedicine Valleyof“Shanghai Steel Union”Business Model and Mid- and Long-Term Prospects:EMedicine Valley是Kangmei12year12moon推出of全国唯一of大宗medicine材现货交易平台,Currently available for listing(offlineElectronic spot transaction, third-party supervision of payment), bidding and auction (medicine material transaction enters the bidding mechanism, price transparency), spot transaction (electronic transaction of standardized contract, two-way transaction, T+0) and warehouse receipt pledge financing, etc. There are four transaction methods, and the core profit model in the future is mainly: transaction fee (related to transaction volume, one-thousandth of the fee), settlement service fee (three-thousandth of the fee), margin deposit (20% margin, two-way Collection), quality inspection, warehousing services, etc. The circulation scale of Chinese medicinal materials exceeds 200 billion, and the transaction frequency will be further enlarged after the electronic transaction and financial attributes are enhanced. If the annual transaction amount reaches one trillion, the profit of the bulk spot trading platform itself will exceed ten billion.
EMedicine Valley当前最核心of是培育用户,Enhance platform traffic:EMedicine Valley全职推广人员有30multiple,Mainly through three modes of promotion:1、在全国各主要medicine材交易市场打广告2. Promote through Kangmei Chinese Medicine Network and other websites; 3. Chairman Ma and Xu personally lead the team to promote E Medicine Valley in large and medium-sized Chinese medicine enterprises across the country. Branded pharmaceutical companies such as Pharma and Bailing have already traded in E Medicine Valley. The cultivation of medicinal material procurement customers is more critical than the cultivation of upstream suppliers, and upstream suppliers need to cultivate a trusting electronic transaction model.
Kangmei更大of增长前景在于品牌中medicine饮片及衍生产品of终端消费:Kangmei着力打造of中medicine材上游供应链也保障了Kangmei终端业务of中medicine材需求,Kangmei对中medicine饮片、health products, Food (there will be unilateral and compound traditional Chinese medicine granules in the future) have been extensively developed, and the construction of sales channels that are equally important for terminal business and products. Kangmei has carried out a large number of strategic layouts in hospital terminals, pharmacy terminals, e-commerce, and direct sales. We will analyze Kangmei's strategic layout in downstream consumption channels in detail in future reports.
The real value will only be ignored in stages,will not be forgotten forever。 Kangmei's strategic prototype in the whole industry chain of Chinese medicinal materials has been completed, and the market still has many different understandings of Kangmei's business. We judge that in the next two to three years, Kangmei will gain more understanding and recognition: 1. Upstream asset-heavy projects have gradually entered the cash recovery period, and the core industrial links of Chinese herbal medicine circulation have been continuously deepened; 2. As the most important node in the supply chain of Chinese herbal medicines, the supply and demand of Chinese herbal medicines have become more sticky to the platform, and listed varieties 3. After the upstream resource layout is gradually formed, Kangmei's strategic focus will gradually shift to the expansion of terminal business: the development of traditional Chinese medicine pieces, health care products and food, the construction of terminal sales channels and 4. From the construction and opening of terminal sales channels, we believe that Kangmei has many possibilities for powerful alliances and resource integration. Regardless of the sale of shops, we maintain the main business EPS of 1.10 yuan, 1.38 yuan, and 1.68 yuan in 2014-2016, the main business increased by 30%, 25%, and 22% year-on-year, and the forecasted price-earnings ratio was 17 times, 13 times, and 11 times. There are significant Undervalued, reiterate "Buy" rating.
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It is reported that，《互联网食品medicine品交易管理办法》Officially finalized，expected to be announced soon。 The official draft has not changed much compared to the draft for comments released last year. In May 2014, the "Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Internet Food and Drug Operations (Draft for Comment)" formulated by the State Food and Drug Administration began to solicit public opinions, and it has been more than 9 months. The article clearly mentioned that Internet drug operators should sell prescription drugs with prescriptions in accordance with the requirements of drug classification management regulations, and directly convey to the industry the signal that e-commerce platforms can sell prescription drugs.
Kangmeimedicine业:investment in construction jadeLin Chinese medicine decoction pieces project, consolidate the foundation of the industrial chain
Category: Company Research Institute: Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Zhang Qili, Deng Zhouyu Date: 2015-02-16
Matters: Kangmei Pharmaceutical announced that it plans to invest 1 billion yuan in construction China-ASEAN Kangmei Yulin Traditional Chinese Medicine Industrial Park project, invested 88 million to acquire Shanghai Jinteng Communication Equipment Company. Guoxin's point of view: According to our previous field research, in our in-depth report on the company "Major changes in profit structure bring about upward reconstruction of valuation", it has been pointed out that the business of traditional Chinese medicine pieces belongs to: 1. Supplying hospitals and retail terminals, the consumption attribute is very strong 2. The terminal price of Chinese herbal medicine pieces is rigid, and the drop in the price of Chinese herbal medicines directly increases the profit margin of Chinese herbal medicine pieces, which naturally forms a hedging mechanism with the trade business; 3. Construction of pieces of Chinese herbal medicine factories in economically developed areas The payback period is very fast, and the investment can be recovered in about 2-3 years, and the cash flow situation is very good. According to our research on the company's Beijing Decoction Piece Factory, we can see that the total production capacity of the Beijing Decoction Piece Factory after the expansion has reached 8,000 tons (6,000 tons of new production capacity), of which only Guang'anmen Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital's demand for the company's decoction pieces in 2014 is estimated to reach 2,000 tons, The company's capacity utilization rate reached 80% in the first year of operation, and the demand is very strong. We have estimated that the second year after the Beijing Decoction Piece Factory was put into operation, the new income of decoction pieces was about 600 million, the net profit contributed about 120 million, and the project investment scale was about 300 million. , Therefore, the Beijing Decoction Piece Factory can recover the investment cost in less than 3 years, and the return on investment is very high. We judge that this Yulin Traditional Chinese Medicine Decoction Piece Project is expected to replicate the successful experience of the Beijing Decoction Piece Project. In addition, the company invested 88 million to acquire Shanghai Jinteng Communication Equipment Co., Ltd., which was mainly used to acquire 33,000 square meters of land and two factories owned by it. The cost of acquiring the land was about 2,667 yuan/square meter. The plant is used for the office of the Shanghai branch and the warehousing and logistics center (including consumer goods, western medicine, etc.) to meet the needs of the rapidly growing Shanghai market (consumer goods, western medicine, etc.).
According to the calculation by business, we expect EPS of 1.09 yuan/1.36 yuan/1.80 yuan in 2014-2016, +27.2%/25%/32.2% year-on-year. The reasonable market value of the company is estimated at 41 billion/51.2 billion/71.4 billion, corresponding to a stock price of 18.40 yuan/22.97 yuan/32.03 yuan. The current stock price is 17.03 yuan, PE16/13/10, 1-year stock price space is 35%, 2-year stock price space is 88%, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
Company Announcement Overview: Background of the Yulin Traditional Chinese Medicine Industrial Park project.
The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is a free trade area established by China and ten ASEAN countries. It has now become a huge economy covering 11 countries, a population of 1.9 billion and a GDP of 6 trillion US dollars. It is currently the most populous in the world. It is also the largest free trade area among developing countries, and the trade between ASEAN and China accounts for 13% of world trade. Guangxi is a province with large resources of traditional Chinese medicines. Currently, there are 4,064 species of Chinese medicinal materials, ranking second in the country, accounting for about 1/3 of the national medicinal plant resources (11,146 species). Provides abundant germplasm resources.
For a long time, my country's traditional Chinese medicine industry has been in a small and scattered market competition. According to statistics, as of the end of October 2014, there were about 877 TCM decoction pieces processing enterprises in my country, with an industrial scale of more than 100 billion yuan, but most of the industries in the industry were small and medium-sized enterprises with an output value of only 1 million or 10 million, and only a handful of them reached a scale of 100 million yuan. number. In the early stage, due to the lack of processing specifications and product quality standards, the production and circulation of TCM decoction pieces was relatively chaotic. According to the characteristics of this industry, the State Food and Drug Administration and other departments have gradually improved the industry management specifications. The State Food and Drug Administration stipulates that after July 1, 2004, the packaging of Chinese herbal decoction pieces must meet the requirements, and from January 1, 2008, all Chinese herbal decoction pieces production plants must pass GMP certification; the State Food and Drug Administration issued a regulation in 2012 to require all Chinese medicine decoction pieces enterprises in 2015. Re-complete the GMP certification work before December 31, 2018. With the establishment and improvement of the above-mentioned legal system, the market of Chinese herbal medicines will be gradually regulated, and the production and circulation situation that used to be small and scattered in the past will gradually improve, and companies that follow the quality and good reputation brand enterprises will have a good opportunity for development. According to statistics, from 2010 to 2013, the national market capacity of TCM decoction pieces was 70.2 billion yuan, 85.4 billion yuan, 90.9 billion yuan and 125.9 billion yuan.
Based on the above background, the company plans to build a traditional Chinese medicine health industrial park in Yulin, Guangxi. The total planned land area of the project is about 500 mu (specifically, the final measurement result of the land department shall prevail), and it plans to build a standard traditional Chinese medicine decoction piece production base and traditional Chinese medicinal materials processing. And purification base, modern warehousing logistics and supporting facilities. The total planned investment of this project is 1 billion yuan (excluding land costs andIt is expected that the project will be able to process and produce more than 300,000 tons of Chinese medicinal materials annually after the project is fully completed. The initial construction period is planned to be 4 years, and the first phase of the project is expected to be about 24 months.
The Chinese herbal decoction pieces project is a project with high turnover rate and high return rate, refer to the Beijing Chinese herbal medicine decoction pieces project.
According to our previous field research, we have pointed out in our in-depth report on the company "Upward Reconstruction of Valuation Due to Significant Changes in Profit Structure" that the business of Chinese herbal medicines belongs to: 1. Supplying hospitals and retail terminals, the consumption attribute is very strong 2. The terminal price of Chinese herbal medicine pieces is rigid, and the drop in the price of Chinese herbal medicines directly increases the profit margin of Chinese herbal medicine pieces, which naturally forms a hedging mechanism with the trade business; 3. Construction of pieces of Chinese herbal medicine factories in economically developed areas The payback period is very fast, and the investment can be recovered in about 2-3 years, and the cash flow situation is very good. According to our research on the company's Beijing Decoction Piece Factory, we can see that the total production capacity of the Beijing Decoction Piece Factory has reached 8,000 tons (6,000 tons of new production capacity), of which only Guang'anmen Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine estimated the company's decoction pieces to be 2,000 tons in 2014. In the first year of operation, the capacity utilization rate reached 80%, and the demand was very strong. We estimated that the second year after the Beijing Decoction Piece Factory was put into operation, the new income of decoction pieces was about 600 million, and the net profit contributed about 120 million. The project investment scale is about 300 million. Therefore, the Beijing Decoction Piece Factory can recover the investment cost in less than 3 years, and the return on investment is very high. We judge that the Yulin Chinese Herbal Pieces Project is expected to replicate the successful experience of the Beijing Pieces Project.
Acquired Shanghai Jinteng to obtain 33,000 square meters of land and workshops for the logistics and storage center of the Shanghai branch to adapt to the rapidly growing Shanghai market.
The company invested 88 million to acquire Shanghai Jinteng Communication Equipment Co., Ltd., mainly for the acquisition of 33,000 square meters of land and two factories. And the plant is used for the office of the Shanghai branch as well as the warehousing and logistics center (including consumer goods and western medicine) to meet the needs of the rapidly growing Shanghai market (consumer goods, western medicine).
Viewpoint review: The proportion of trading business is gradually declining, and the market has given a very low valuation to the trading business, so the driving force to drag down the stock price is extremely limited.
The business prosperity of Chinese herbal medicines is down, but there are still structural bullish varieties. In this context, the company took the initiative to shrink its trade business and gradually transformed into supply chain cooperation with downstream pharmaceutical companies. At the same time, the company selects trade varieties, such as forest ginseng project to help the company lock in profits of about 2 billion, which will become the stabilizer of the trade business in the next few years. In terms of valuation: the current market valuation of the company's trading business is 8-10 times. We believe that even under pessimistic expectations, there is a significant decline in the trading business, and the drag on the stock price is very limited.
Viewpoint review: The company should be regarded as a platform-type enterprise dedicated to providing high-quality decoction pieces and consumer products.
Based on the control of high-quality raw materials, the company builds the "Kangmei" brand as a carrier (with great ductility), and expands all-round three-dimensional channels as a guarantee, and is committed to becoming a supplier of high-quality decoction pieces and traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods. The company controls the terminal through multi-level and three-dimensional channels (hospitals, pharmacy hosting, retail, direct sales, e-commerce), laying a solid foundation for building a platform-based company.
Significant changes in earnings structure will lead to valuation restructuring of the stock.
We estimate that the net profit of the company's trading business in 2014-2016 will be 1.530 billion/1.410 billion/1.414 billion, the net profit of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces + consumer goods will be 746 million/1.044 billion/1.573 billion, and the net profit of western medicine business will be 161 million/289 million/ 503 million.
The trading business is valued at 10 times/10 times/10 times, with a reasonable valuation of 15.3 billion/14.1 billion/14.1 billion. The net profit of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces + consumer goods is given a valuation of 30 times/30 times/30 times, and the reasonable valuation is 22.4 billion/31.3 billion/47.2 billion. The western medicine business is given 20 times/20 times/20 times according to the industrial and commercial integrated enterprise valuation, and the reasonable valuation is 3.3 billion/5.8 billion/10.1 billion.
According to the above segment estimates, 2014-2016 EPS was 1.09 yuan/1.36 yuan/1.80 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +27.2%/25%/32.2%. The company's reasonable market value valuation is 41 billion/51.2 billion/71.4 billion, corresponding to a stock price of 18.40 yuan/22.97 yuan//32.03 yuan. The current stock price is 17.03 yuan, the 1-year stock price space is 35%, and the 2-year stock price space is 88%, maintaining a "buy" rating.
[21 First Second News] #Event Driven# Kangmei Pharmaceutical (600518): 1) The valuation is low, and the PE in 2015 is only 13 2) Yesterday, stimulated by the catalyst of Internet e-commerce, the stock price rose by the limit and released a historical record, and the medium-term trend may start; 3) The company's non-trade business has grown rapidly (the institution expects that the compound growth rate of decoction pieces is expected to be 40% in the next three years, and the next three 60% in 2018, and 40% in the next three years for western medicine business), which will promote the upward reconstruction of the stock valuation system; 4) The layout of e-commerce business is accelerated, and the transaction volume of e-Pharmaceutical Valley in January exceeds 10 billion (of which physical delivery accounts for 20%) , the future will create a version of Chinese herbal medicine "Shanghai Ganglian". During the Spring Festival, it will also jointly launch a "promotional red envelope" with WeChat. According to previous media reports, the two parties will carry out specific cooperation in pharmaceutical e-commerce, online hospitals, and smart medical care. （2015year2moon12day14Time52Minute）（for reference only）【21Century Business Herald】
Kangmeimedicine业［６００５１８］There are threeWebsite: Kangmei Mall, Kangmei
Medicine Valley, Kangmei Love.
Medicine ValleyIt is the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Hong Kong Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange for Chinese herbal medicine transactions. . . . . . There are currently 26 trading varieties. When the transaction volume is large, the one-day handling fee [
, two-way charging.Trading customers provide２０％of
，Kangmei有利息收入；Kangmei还可为客户提供融资服务， Collecting financing fees] The income is equivalent to the annual income of those B2B e-commerce companies. The gross profit margin of Kangmei Health Mall’s products sold by its own company is about 25%. Soon, the profit of one day’s online sales will be equivalent to B2B e-commerce. annual revenue of the company. Kangmei
A few days ago
Most of them are unknown, and the annual turnover is only
100 million, this year
broke out suddenly, and the transaction volume reached
The above markets account for
sales of precious Chinese herbal medicines, and China has
large Kangmei accounts for
of Chinese herbal medicine wholesale markets in China. The world's largest Chinese herbal medicine wholesale market is Kangmei's, located in Bozhou, Anhui.Kangmeiof主要产业链如下：
、公司力争控制整个中medicine产业chain. This industry chain includes: planting bases
Value-added services such as warehousing and logistics testing
Chinese Herbal Pieces
Hospitals, chain pharmacies Wait for the terminal.
、公司of生产基地和交易中心，Has been deployed in Guangdong（ South China)
(East China and Central China)
Hebei, Beijing (North China)
Gansu (Northwest) span>
Chinese Herbal Pieces; Luxury
Ginseng; Health Products and Drinks
Juhuang tea, California baby; food
Shanghai Meifeng, golden statue.
Puning Kangmei Hospital; Bozhou Hospital, etc.
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最近这段Time间互联网金融of生意宝, Great Wisdom, Flush, Oriental Fortune; Jingtianli and Focus Technology of Internet Insurance; Shenzhen Huaqiang and Mianshi Shares of the concept of online loan; Internet medical care, online education, online home improvement, 020, etc. are all based on the in-depth development of the Internet Derivative concept
Based on the understanding of this concept, I have selected a number of stocks with similar conditions and potential as research objects in the stock pool of candidates (excluding those with excessively high gains such as Toocle):
Sheng Sheng Tun Mining (investing in metal industry chain financial services integration information platform, expanding non-ferrous metal factoring financial services) Glodon (transformation of home building materials B2B e-commerce platform supply chain finance model) Guangzhou Langqi (China's largest chemical spot electronic trading platform) —Qihua.com) Haining Picheng (cross-border e-commerce + Internet finance) Kangmei Pharmaceutical (the largest bulk platform for Chinese herbal medicines) Oupu Steel Network (steel and other diversified e-commerce + online loan + supply chain finance + electronic payment) China Textile City ( Annual transaction volume of textile bulk platform1 20 billion) Jiaxin Silk (the largest silk trading platform) Bonded Technology (Jiangsu chemical products trading platform has a scale of over 100 billion) Seagull Sanitary Ware (Qi e-commerce building materials platform) Smart Energy (special cable trading platform) Yihua Wood (Aifu) Home Furnishing Industry & Ali) Bauing Co., Ltd. (Hongyang E-commerce Building Materials Platform) BaosteelShares (electronic steel trading platform) Shenzhen SEG Shenzhen Huaqiang Small Commodity City LONGi Co., Ltd. Suning Yunshang Hejia Co., Ltd. (5 billion introduced into the e-commerce supply chain platform built by Jiutian Industry and Trade) Ruimaotong (1.5 billion coal industry supply chain platform built ) Focus Technology Jiuzhoutong New Hope No. 100 Holdings Yuyin Co., Ltd. Haixin Foods.