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In the next five years, China's property market and stock market will plummet? China will not go back to Japan's old path

Release Time:2022-04-14 Topic:Stock market trends in the next five years Reading:147 Navigation:Stock Liao information > internationality > In the next five years, China's property market and stock market will plummet? China will not go back to Japan's old path phone-reading

​​ One

Selling Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and buying the entire United States, will China’s housing prices really never fall?

Will our house prices repeat the mistakes of Japan 30 years ago and collapse completely overnight?

Let's see it through today.

A few days ago, Russian athletes who participated in the Tokyo Olympics complained that there was no refrigerator or TV in their room, and the toilet could not be used normally. It felt like living in medieval Japan. Japanese netizens said: I am extremely ashamed of this.

I once promised to buy the whole of Japan in the United States, why is it so stingy? Forgive them, they haven't seen any growth in 25 years.

I think it will be a great warning and enlightenment for us Chinese to review the history of Japan's rise and decline. In 1952, Japan's GDP was 17.2 billion US dollars. By 1989, its GDP had reached 3,487.7 billion US dollars, an increase of nearly 200 times in 40 years.

This year, how powerful is Japan? The sum of the housing prices in Tokyo, Japan, claims to be able to directly buy the entire United States. At that time, some Japanese elites even shouted that they would buy the entire United States and make the United States become a Japan's "forty-first prefecture".

The Japanese capital giants are sweeping the world, and they are trembling when they hit American companies. Among the 20 companies with the largest market capitalization in the world, the Japanese side has exclusively 14 and completely crushed his American big brother. In June 1989, Sony successfully purchased the American entertainment giant and one of the symbols of American culture - Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion.

In the same year, Rockefeller Center, a national symbol of the United States, was purchased by Japan's Mitsubishi Group. American public opinion exclaimed that this was the second time Japan invaded the United States, the last time it was at Pearl Harbor. Americans even laughed at themselves: maybe there will be news at some time that the Japanese bought the Statue of Liberty.

This makes the Japanese who have been holding back for many years finally a little proud. Sony founder Akio Morita wrote a book called "Japan Can Say No", which is very popular in Japan. Because this advocates that Japan should be free from American dependence and control. When Shiina Etsu Saburo was foreign minister, he even publicly mocked the United States in Congress as Japan's dog. He is really a Zhongshan wolf, and he is arrogant when he is in power.

Many people are curious, why did Japan, which was defeated in war, rise so fast? All this is inseparable from the support of his beautiful father all the way. Only when we examine Japan's development in a larger historical context can we see the truth. After World War II, the biggest political and economic pattern was the US-Soviet hegemony. Lao Jiang lost the mainland, and the US needed to find new strategic support points in Asia. Japan has filled this role.

At that time, Japan was defeated and the supplies were extremely scarce. The United States can be said to have given very great support. From 1945 to 1950, two-thirds of Japan's total imports came from the United States. One-third of the food the Japanese eat comes from aid from the United States.

And what really made Japan earn its first pot of gold was the Korean War. The Korean War made Japan a production base and supply base for U.S. military materials. In order to meet the needs of the war, the United States paid for a large amount of materials and labor services directly from Japan. According to statistics, from 1950 to the end of the war in 1953, the United States' special orders for Japan totaled 2.39 billion US dollars. It accounted for 50.6% of Japan's total exports.

In 1961, Japan's GDP surpassed China's for the first time. In 1968, Japan's GDP surpassed that of West Germany. And the Vietnam War has plunged the United States into a quagmire, and it is no exaggeration to say that he made the United States poor. But also conquered Japan.

While Japan is on the rise, his big brother, the United States, is in deep troublequagmire. Not to mention the 20-year Vietnam War, and now Japanese companies have seized American business in large numbers, which has brought the American economy to the brink of collapse.

In 1985, U.S. inflation reached its highest level of 19.5%, and the Fed lowered inflation by raising interest rates At the same time, the rapid appreciation of the dollar has led to a contraction in U.S. exports and a surge in imports. The trade deficit will intensify, and the persistent trade deficit will lead to the collapse of the US economy and the tearing of social contradictions.

The trade deficit with Japan, at its peak, accounted for more than 80% of the entire US trade deficit, which greatly stimulated the Americans. Unemployed Americans rushed to the streets and held large-scale "anti-Japanese demonstrations". The most shocking thing is that a Chinese named Chen Guoren was mistaken for Japanese by two unemployed American workers and beaten to death. The American people turned their anger on the Japanese, Japanese cars, and Japanese-related products.

And the American elite hit Japan with the idea of ​​getting out of trouble.

Two

After 1989, the Japanese stock market and property market collapsed by 60%, and the economy almost is zero growth. The tragedy is comparable to the Great Crash of 1929. Is all this behind the manipulation of the United States, or is it Japan's own fault? Will China's housing prices repeat the mistakes of Japan?

1985, a very pivotal year. The situation facing Japan is very similar to that of China today.

The per capita GDP is just over 10,000 US dollars. It has also experienced 40 years of rapid growth and has become the second largest economic power. It is also the largest country with the largest trade deficit in the United States. It is also beginning to consider financial liberalization after being strongly suppressed by the United States. The United States is also facing a similar situation, that is, it is stuck in an economic quagmire and wants to save itself by attacking other countries.

Let's review together, this most magnificent economic war in human history. In 1985, the U.S. economy was mired in a quagmire, with inflation reaching the highest level of 19.5%, and the persistent trade deficit brought the U.S. economy to the brink of collapse. They put the idea of ​​solving the dilemma on the Japanese.

At that time, after more than 30 years of rapid growth, Japan's economy was global and unrivaled. But there is a deep pain point in the hearts of all Japanese people: they are economic giants and political dwarfs. As early as the early 1980s, the Japanese government proposed that Japan should transform from an "economic power" to a "political power".

They also knew that the relationship between Japan and the United States was the cornerstone of its becoming a "political power".

Americans know this all too well. Do what it likes, and provide Japan with a plan to become a political power. Financial liberalization. Financial freedom is not like a political power. Improve the trade surplus to improve Japan's relations with world powers and win the respect of the world.

Let's see what the Japanese government did? In 1985, the Japanese government issued the "Status and Prospects of Financial Liberalization and Yen Internationalization", which opened the prelude to the comprehensive liberalization of Japan's finance. In 1985, Japan's "Economic White Paper" pointed out that the export-oriented economic growth model is no longer sustainable, and Japan must expand domestic demand to ease relations with the international community. It can be said that Japan has accepted almost all the proposals of the United States.

Japan's demand is the way out of the U.S. economy. In the United States' trade deficit, Japan accounted for 40%, and the highest was more than 80%. The best way to eliminate the deficit is of course to improve the competitiveness of your products. But Americans want to cut corners and devalue the dollar. You may be asking, Americans have taken the wrong medicine, their brains are pumping, and their banknotes have become worthless for no reason.

In fact, the reason is very simple. After the dollar depreciates, the yen will be worth more. The Japanese used to be able to buy a pound of American beef for 3,000 yen. Now that the yen is valuable, I only need 2,000 yen to buy a pound. American beef is about the same price as native beef. Are there more people buying American beef? U.S. beef has become more competitive. By the same token, this has also led to an increase in the global competitiveness of American goods.

This trick is the same as the old and the US's appreciation of the RMB in the past few years. Is it such a simple trick that the Japanese cannot understand? of course not. The Japanese thought at that time that Lao Tzu was number one in the world and wanted to harvest the beautiful dream of the United States.

They conspired to take advantage of the devaluation of the dollar and stab the American Big Brother in the back to avenge the enslavement of the United States after World War II. Why do they say that?

The Japanese believe that a weaker dollar is good for their country. A large number of Japanese super-enterprises are madly entering the world. The devaluation of the dollar just allows them to annex and acquire the best companies in the United States at an extremely low cost. We know that Japan's oil resources are very scarce. During World War II, it was not because oil was destroyed Americans stuck their necks, leading Japan to take the risk of attacking Pearl Harbor.

Now that the U.S. dollar is depreciating, oil must be settled in U.S. dollars, which in disguise makes oil cheaper because of the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Japan can just take the opportunity to buy a large amount of cheap oil to support Japan's industrial upgrading and completely overtake and defeat your American industry. Japan does not take advantage of this cheap.

In this way, under the misconceptions of several big countries, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany began to take the lead, selling a large number of US dollars to the market. With more US dollars in the market, money naturally Not worth the money. The dollar began to depreciate. This is the very famous "Plaza Accord" in history. You may ask, it is wrong to say so, since the depreciation of the US dollar is so beneficial to the Japanese economy, why did the Japanese economy collapse later?

Many people think that the Plaza Accord caused Japan's collapse, which is actually an exaggeration. What really caused Japan's economic collapse was a fatal decision-making error induced by the United States. When Japan experienced a brief economic recession in 1986, the Japanese government adopted the wrong policy out of fear of the appreciation of the yen: From January 1986 to February 1987, the Bank of Japan cut interest rates five times in a row, with low interest rates To 2.5%, not only the lowest in Japan's history, but also the lowest among major countries in the world at that time. You must know that the highest interest rate in the United States at the time reached 9%.

Well, everyone is reluctant to deposit in the bank, which has resulted in a large amount of excess funds. Where do these funds go? The common people are smart people, the yen appreciates, business is not good, everyone is going to speculate in stocks and real estate. This was the first fire of the Japanese economic bubble and the first mistake of the Japanese government before it collapsed. But the Japanese government still has the opportunity to correct its mistakes, but this opportunity was interrupted by the Americans.

In the autumn of 1987, the world economy experienced rapid growth. In order to deal with possible inflation, the United States and West Germany have successively raised interest rates. The Bank of Japan is also poised to raise interest rates, which is a good time for them to correct previous misguided policies. But unfortunately, on October 19, a stock market crash broke out in the US stock market. It is critical to note this advice. Because at that time the United States was worried that if the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, funds could not be returned to the US market in time, which might cause market turmoil again.

You may be wondering, why does Japan raise interest rates so that money can't flow back to the US market immediately? Capital is profit-seeking. To make a simple analogy, you compare the United States and Japan to two banks. If the interest rate of these two banks is 3%, now the American bank will allow more funds to be deposited in their bank in the future, so the interest rate will be increased. Is it a good method, but the Japanese bank has also increased the interest rate, so this method is not easy to use.

Although the Japanese government is not very independent, it is not a fool. Why do they just do what America says? Because the Japanese government is also worried that raising interest rates may allow more international capital to flow into Japan, promote the appreciation of the yen, and cause an economic recession. Because the previous appreciation of the yen has completely exceeded the expectations of the Japanese government, it has been in a state of runaway.

In addition, at that time, Japan was implementing a strategy of expanding domestic demand. It needed to increase domestic investment at a lower interest rate. It did not want ordinary people to save money and let them use it for consumption. Therefore, the only opportunity for error correction was missed. Japan's ultra-low interest rate policy has been in place for 27 months.

This is the second mistake of Japan's monetary policy, and it is also a "fatal mistake". After misleading Japan to maintain a low interest rate policy, the U.S. trade deficit has not been well resolved, and the U.S. economy at that time was really unstoppable. But don't forget, American GIs still live on the Japanese island.

The United States forced Japan to sign the U.S.-Japan Structural Trade Barrier Agreement. Among them, the United States alone requires Japan to formulate a public utility investment plan, which stipulates that it must invest more than 430 trillion yen in the United States within 10 years. This was the second American occupation of Japan. This is not economic warfare, this is naked plunder. The purpose of the United States has been achieved, and all this should be closed!

Under the continuous appreciation and loose monetary policy, Japan has directly spawned a huge economic bubble unique in human history. Japanese stock marketIn those few years, it went from 13,000 to 39,000. The total value of the Japanese stock market accounted for 45% of the world's total at that time. The Japanese housing market was even more crazy. If you sell Tokyo, you can buy the entire United States.

A well-known story is that in Tokyo, there was a school janitor who worked in the reception room for more than 40 years for a meager salary. After retirement, he plans to return to the countryside to spend his old age in peace. So the trustee sold his small house in Tokyo, which was unexpectedly sold for $8 million. The janitor instantly became a multi-millionaire and returned home.

Under such circumstances, how can the Japanese people have the heart to work, only houses and stocks are in their minds. Their craziest belief is that Japanese houses will never fall, and the Japanese stock market is the sun that never sets. The whole country fell into a speculative frenzy. Working for a lifetime is not as good as earning more than half a year of real estate speculation.

But a few Japanese elites are beginning to realize the many crises in this peaceful and prosperous world. The entire Japanese economy is sitting on a giant dynamite barrel. Just one spark can kill everyone's bones. . How to get through this great catastrophe of the century? The entire Japanese elite has chosen a radical and tragic way: suicide self-help.

They chose to take the initiative to burst the bubble, raising interest rates five times in a row within a year. Then stop all mortgages. This Bushido-spirited move by Japan turned its own country into a hell on earth.

Three

The summaries you've seen so far about Japan's collapse are all wrong.

Japan's economy has been waiting for the world for 25 years, why is it only China that catches up and crushes it? Will China repeat the mistakes of Japan?

In the face of the huge bubble in the property market and stock market, Japan took out the spirit of Bushido and raised interest rates by suicide. Five interest rate hikes within a year led to the sudden depletion of liquidity in the Japanese market. The stock market rebounded slightly and then fell off a cliff at a faster rate. The stock market fell from nearly 40,000 points in 1989 to more than 14,000 points in August 1992. down more than 60%.

During this period of time, the stock market evaporated 300 trillion yen, and darkness completely enveloped the Japanese financial market. Many people who borrowed money to invest in stocks went from multimillionaires overnight to multimillionaires. Overwhelmed, countless people chose to run away and commit suicide.

In such an environment, every Japanese has no choice but to sell. International capitals from all walks of life fled Japan frantically regardless of the cost. The Japanese capital market has been completely reduced to a meat grinder, with corpses everywhere. The property market is even more exaggerated. In the years after the collapse in 1991, it first fell off a cliff and then continued to fall. The Tokyo area commercial land price index plummeted by 70% from 1991 to 1999.

If Before 1989, you bought a house for 10 million, borrowed 7 million from the bank, and made a down payment of 3 million. But then the house plummeted and it was only worth 3 million, and because of the economic crisis, you were unemployed and unable to continue to repay the loan. The bank took back the house, but this house can only be used for 3 million of the 7 million you owe to the bank, and the remaining 4 million is owed You still have to continue to work for the rest of your life. That is, your down payment of 3 million is gone, the house is gone, and you are left with a debt of 4 million.

You have to work part-time for the rest of your life to pay off your debts to the bank. Back to slavery overnight. I am lucky if I can find a job as a slave, but if I am unlucky, I can only wander on the streets. All yen assets are collapsing, companies are closing down every day, a large number of people are unemployed every day, people are sent to mental hospitals every day, and people commit suicide every day, the whole of Japan is like hell on earth. This is the picture of Japan's collapse in the eyes of many media.

In the more than 30 years since the crash, Japan's growth has all but stopped. The whole world is laughing at Japan's lost 30 years. What made Japan lose these 30 years, is it just because of a crash. of course not. The mainstream view in the West is that Japan's long-term low interest rate policy has caused Japan to lose the past 30 years. But this is still a collectively blinded view.

Although we said above, Japan did make fatal mistakes under the misdirection of the United States before the collapse. But there is nothing big wrong in what you do after the crash. Remember, this judgment is very critical and important.

Let's make a comparison: Japan's crash was comparable to the 1929 crash in the United States, but Japan's per capita GDP increased by 30% in the four years following the crash, peaking in 1995. The Great Crash of 1929In the years that followed, the economy shrank by nearly 46 percent.

Then you must ask, what happened to Japan after 25 years without growth? In fact, the assumption of this question is that the world must grow. We might as well change our thinking: Japan has been waiting for the world for 25 years, but only our powerful China has surpassed Japan's economy. Germany, South Korea, Britain, France, Canada, why did you go to these countries, people have been waiting for you for 25 years. You just climb and catch up.

There is only one answer, these countries are also experiencing slow growth like Japan. That is, slow growth or even zero growth is not unique to Japan. It is a common situation in western developed countries except the United States.

If you think of Japan as a bull stock, in the first 45 years, it has doubled 328 times, and now it has traded sideways for 20 years at the highest point. My compatriots who have traded in stocks, you tell me that this is Strong or weak?

Sometimes, we see others as weak, just because China's growth in the past 30 years is too strong. So powerful that the world starts to despise second and third. The real powerhouse dares to sing the glory of today and face his bleak past. You must know that in 1952, our GDP was 1.7 times that of Japan, and by 1990, Japan was more than 8 times ours. Now we are three times as big as others.

A correct view of the 30 years lost by Japan is of extraordinary value to China today. After Japan's collapse, macro policy did not make a big mistake, and it could even be said that they made the only right choice.

Why? Japan's foreign trade has not played much role in GDP growth before the collapse, just like our foreign trade contribution to GDP growth is close to 0 today. Japan's urbanization rate has reached 90%. That is, it is even more difficult for investment to drive GDP growth. The troika driving economic growth depends only on domestic demand. This is also Japan's national policy established in 1985.

This is very similar to the current situation in China. However, Japanese companies and residents went bankrupt due to the Great Crash and ran out of money. As a result of the crash, Japanese corporate and household balance sheets went from swell to sharp decline, leaving them in a state of technical bankruptcy. As a result, no matter how much money is issued, the first thing they do after they get the money is to save and pay off debts. At this time, there is not much money to spend.

That's why rich Japan is so stingy. That's why Japan's long-term growth has been weak.

If Japan didn't implement a policy of zero interest rates for a long time, the situation would be much worse than it is now. To sum up here, Japan has not grown for 25 years. The fundamental reason is that the Japanese economy has peaked at that time, and the only hope for economic growth is that domestic demand cannot be boosted due to the technical bankruptcy of residents.

Will China repeat the mistakes of Japan? Many of the situations we face today are very similar to those of Japan back then.

For example, it is also the country with the largest trade deficit in the United States, also has little contribution to GDP growth from foreign trade, and is also kidnapped by high housing prices. It is to face the trend of population aging, and also to face the pressure of financial liberalization.

But most importantly, our domestic demand still has huge potential. And Japan was exhausted by then. Our per capita GDP was just over 10,000 US dollars, while Japan was as high as 40,000 US dollars at that time, and our urbanization rate was 60%. Japan was already as high as 90%. Compared with Japan at that time, we still have huge room for growth.

Our inner loop has much better conditions than Japan. China has a large population base, and regional economic development varies greatly. The per capita GDP of the southeastern coastal cities exceeds 20,000. As long as the living standards and methods of the coastal cities spread to the inland, this is also a huge driving force for consumption growth.

The contribution of current consumption to GDP growth has reached 70%-80%. In the future, China's growth hope is mainly in consumption, which is also the meaning of internal circulation. Letting every Chinese have more money to spend must be the most important issue in China at the moment. Because it's about China's future. Our economy will remain strong as long as ordinary people have more money to spend and consume the products of our own businesses.

Therefore, we see that the rise of domestic products has been unstoppable. The Hongxing Erke incident was popular all over the Internet, but looking back a few years later, it may just be a small wave under the general trend of the rise of domestic products. Enthusiasm for the consumption of domestic products is an inevitable requirement of internal circulation, and it is also a powerful guarantee for the success of internal circulation.

Japan's biggest failure is the failure of the internal circulation. China will definitely not repeat the mistakes of Japan, That's because compared to Japan, we China is a truly independent big country, a strong country, and we have the ability to defy any Western influence.

June 28 layout with everyone in June 21 Yuanxing Energy (000683), eat meat 185%! Haida Shares (300320), which was arranged by you in July, has 67% meat, and Taihua Xincai (603005), which was arranged by you on August 6, has reached 102% so far. In December, Zhengtong Electronics (002197), which led you to the layout, has increased by 74% so far. These are real market reviews. Only those who pay attention know my strength!

So where is the opportunity in 22 years? You can start from 3 directions:

1. The industry, which belongs to the high-quality field, is currently in the stage of high growth;

2. The company is a high-quality leading company with high certainty of performance growth and no negative pressure;

3. Technically, the recent trend is stronger than the market, and the temporary pullback has not broken the trend.

Based on the above conditions, screen to 1 a.m. to select a stock with signs of doubling! After half a year of sideways trading, the position building at the bottom of history has been completed, large funds have entered the market, and the bottom has been accumulated. For the next opportunity, patiently wait for the signal of large funds to pull up the action, and the main rally will start in the short term! It is expected to increase by 153%! Keep up with the pace early, eat big meat early! In order not to disrupt the rhythm of the main set, it cannot be published directly. Friends who need it will pay attention:

Official account: Sima Fu, just reply to the layout

Stock trading requires a normal mind, a clear mind like a mirror, and an understanding of the stock market. If you are too obsessed, you will become a slave to the stock market game.

Stock trading relies on three-point technique and seven-point mentality​​​​

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