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Use the elasticity theory in the knowledge of microeconomics to predict the future trend of pork prices. Thank you guys?

Release Time:2022-04-14 Topic:The future trend of China's market Reading:31 Navigation:Stock Liao information > educate > Use the elasticity theory in the knowledge of microeconomics to predict the future trend of pork prices. Thank you guys? phone-reading

Analysis of price elasticity of demand

Analysis of price elasticity of supply

The following is a comprehensive analysis, the original answer has been modified, the price elasticity of demand for pork fluctuates It is relatively large, and it feels unreasonable to simply say that it is inelastic or elastic.

Comprehensive analysis from short-term and long-term perspectives

This is some supplement to the price elasticity of demand, as well as the price elasticity of demand and pricing strategy: (You can also add this to the analysis if you think you need it)

The data found below from the paper and related websites :

Self-price elasticity of demand calculated by different methods

Data from the paper:

[1] Liu Hua, Zhong Funing. Food Consumption and Demand Elasticity: An Empirical Study Based on Micro-Data of Urban Residents [ J ]. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University (Social Science Edition), 2009,9(03):36- 43.

The price elasticity of supply of live pigs in different regions

Data from the paper:

[ 2 ]Wang Wenjuan, Pan Huanxue. Sensitivity analysis of live pig supply to price in different regions of China: An empirical study based on Ner love model [J]. Price Theory and Practice, 2014(11):67-69.

2004-2009 price elasticity data of pork supply

Data from the paper:

[3] Wu Xu. Economic reasons for the cyclical fluctuation of pork prices in China from 2004 to 2009: Based on the analysis of the elasticity of supply and demand for live pigs [J]. China Price, 2011(11):30-34.

The following is the data of pork stock and slaughter in recent years, as well as the recent changes in pork prices: (The data are all from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs)

Meat Statistics of pig stock and slaughterPork price change (market price) 201804-202004Pork price (wholesale price) 202003-202006

Reliable forecast from China Swine:

Source:

[ 4 ] Zhang Haifeng. Main characteristics of the pig market in 2019 and trends in 2020 [ J ]. China Pig Industry, 2020, 15(02): 13-19+25.

In addition, there is a statistic of the proportion of meat consumption:

From the homework of CPI analysis in our course, the food category in CPI 34%, and pork accounts for about 60% of meat consumption.

I think the analysis of pork price changes mainly comes from the relationship between supply and demand (especially supply and demand).To the end, changes in live pigs and imports), in addition to macro-control policies (such as subsidies, frozen meat reserves), vaccine development, artificial meat... From the perspective of elasticity (it feels like an exercise problem) ) Some elastic data is less certain.

In terms of price forecasting, I saw that some papers mostly use the method of econometrics for regression analysis; Inventory changes predict hog supply after 10 months; there are other methods of price forecasting. Or for the practical problem that the production cycle is long, the demand is determined by the current price, and the supply is determined by the previous price, the cobweb model can also explain the mechanism of pork price fluctuations.

If you know more about it, you can read more related papers~

After reading the latest pig price data, update it:

(Data from "China Pig Network")

Live Pig Price

The wholesale price of pork

May be due to the current increase in supply, the price of live pigs has dropped significantly.

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Label group:[pig] [Microeconomics] [elasticity theory

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