A black swan event is a very unpredictable and unusual event that usually causes a negative chain reaction or even subversion in the market. Before the discovery of black swans in Australia, Europeans before the 17th century believed that swans were all white. But with the emergence of the first black swan, this belief completely collapsed.
Obviously, the "black swan" is unpredictable, whether it is the expectations of the stock market, the government's decision-making, or simple daily choices. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the earthquake in Japan were all like this. So,
What about those heavyweight black swan events around the world in 2016?
1. Trump was elected president of the United States
The biggest black swan event that flew out in 2016 was not Brexit in June, but the Republican presidential candidate of the United States. Trump won the 2016 election, taking the U.S. presidency crown. The global market was not fully prepared for this, and the risk aversion caused by the Trump presidency and the uncertainty of his policies spread rapidly in the global market.
Impact Index: ★★★★★
Expert Comments: “Donald Trump from Republican presidential candidate From the beginning of the campaign, to winning the White House presidency, and even to this day, there has never been a sincere respect for the constitutional democracy of the United States, nor the traditional mainstream values of contemporary America, which are characterized by a considerable degree of social orientation, diversity and tolerance. He has made a sincere response, and has never expressed sincere praise for the relatively open and free world economic and trade system or even broader global international and transnational cooperation. Not only that, but strictly speaking, it is precisely because of this He won the presidency mainly by pandering to, inciting and agglomerating the American 'white grass roots' with the indulgence, intolerance and xenophobia contrary to all this. His election augurs badly for the world."
——Shi Yinhong, a famous American scholar
2. Britain leaves Europe
Four hundred years ago, the British Shakespeare asked a question: "Tobeor not tobe?" Four hundred years later, all British people in June 2016 On the 24th, a referendum was used to understand the love-hate relationship with the European Union and declared "independence". This heavy black swan event caused a sharp increase in risk aversion in global financial markets.
Expert Comments: "Why should the UK leave the EU? The immediate benefit is the UK Can no longer pay its financial quota to the EU treasury, which is as high as 8 billion pounds. Secondly, leaving the EU also means that it can not be bound by the EU constitution, which may bring more employment opportunities to the UK. Finally, the EU managed The bureaucracy and the wave of immigration in Europe have also made the UK somewhat dissatisfied, looking forward to seeking more economic and political autonomy. This is a visible benefit, so what is the invisible disadvantage? Obviously, the integration of the UK and the EU economy will It has been significantly impacted.”
——Xu Jin, editor-in-chief and chief financial commentator of FT Chinese.com’s financial section
3. The Italian referendum failed
On December 5, local time, the results of the Italian constitutional amendment referendum showed that there were more negative votes than yes votes to amend the constitution. It was rejected, and Italian Prime Minister Renzi announced his resignation. Since Italy is currently the third largest economy among EU member states, if Italy 'Brexit', it will greatly affect the confidence of the entire EU. The euro fell 1.4 percent on the news, to its lowest level since March 2015. On top of that, Italian 10-year bond yields climbed above 2% for the first time.
Impact Index: ★★★★☆
Expert Comments: "Italy held a referendum on constitutional reform on December 4. After the referendum failed to pass constitutional reform, this is another case of anti-globalization and populism. Constitutional reform Its goal is to weaken the power of the Senate and indirectly enhance the decision-making power of the government. Because the constitutional reform has not been passed, Renzi will resign as Italian Prime Minister, and the populist party "Five Star Movement" that supports Brexit may take office. The risk of Italy's exit from the European Union increases The euro area is facing the threat of disintegration, and the market uncertainty worries have weakened the euro against the dollar. The proportion of Italian government bonds to GDP has exceeded 130%, the economy holding Italian bonds has been hit, and the European Union such as France, which is about to hold a general election, has been hit. The country has a negative impact.”
——Ren Zeping, Chief Economist of Founder Securities
4. A-share circuit breaker farce
During the stock market crash last year, the China Securities Regulatory Commission blindly learned from the United States and introduced an index circuit breaker mechanism. Unfortunately, the market voted with its feet, and the circuit breaker 4 times within four days. Second, the market value of 6 trillion was evaporated, and the per capita loss of shareholders was 160,000. The circuit breaker mechanism, which was originally a lesson learned from the stock market crash, failed to save investors from panic, but instead created greater panic and greater plunge. In the first week of 2016, A shares plunged 11.96%, creating the worst start in history.
Impact Index: ★★★★☆
Expert Comments: "The circuit breaker mechanism mainly blocks program transactions. If Once you have programmed the program, stock A will fall and stock B will also be sold. At this time, there must be a circuit breaker mechanism. Once it falls by a point, human intervention will cause the circuit breaker. This is right. This is the "Black Monday" in the United States. After the incident, the proposed circuit breaker mechanism is designed to calm everyone down.”
——Li Daokui, Director of the Center for China and World Economy Research, Tsinghua University
“The circuit breaker mechanism was originally A measure to deal with and alleviate the irrationality of the stock market has now become a driver that freezes liquidity and accelerates the irrational decline of the stock market. Obviously, the regulators and exchanges are not well prepared for the circuit breaker system, and inaction after the first circuit breaker aggravates the market The original intention of launching the fuse mechanism is good, hoping to use the fuse mechanism to stabilize investor sentiment and buffer the violent fluctuations in the market. However, the premise for this mechanism to work is that during the 15 minutes of the first fuse, the regulatory authorities And the exchange should find out the reason for the slump and give the market an explanation. Only in this way can the irrational emotions of investors be eased. Perhaps it is the first time that the circuit breaker mechanism is officially triggered. The regulators and exchanges are inexperienced, and after the circuit breaker, there is nothing as usual As a result, the short-term freezing of liquidity will only aggravate the market’s fear, make the accumulation of selling pressure, delay the panic, and further aggravate the market’s volatility.”
——News Editor-in-Chief of CCTV Securities Channel; University of International Business and Economics Su Peike, Principal Investigator, Institute for Public Policy
5. Sterling Flash Crash
At 7:00 am Beijing time on October 7, the pound fell as much as 6.1% in early Asian trading, setting the largest intraday drop since the Brexit referendum within 2 minutes. Sterling touched as low as 1.1841 against the dollar, its lowest level since March 26, 1985, according to Bloomberg data. Although the pound rebounded on the day, it was still down 1.5% from the previous day.
Impact Index: ★★★★
Expert Comments: "Since modern finance is so dependent on speed, algorithmic trading is also A strategy that has become indispensable to the market. Algorithmic Trading refers to designing a trading strategy in advance and then compiling it into a computer program. The algorithm of the computer program is used to determine the timing, price and quantity of trading orders, etc. The advantage of programmatic order placement is that it can avoid the interference caused by human irrational factors, and can place orders more accurately. And can manage a large number of operations at the same time, thereby reducing costs. The general algorithmic trading will be based on trend momentum (Trends and Momentum ), pair trading and arbitrage to formulate programs, but in recent years, financial markets have increasingly relied on automatic trading. Once the program fails, it may lead to major ups and downs in the financial market, which may be the main reason for the flash crash of the pound. There are precedents for flash crash-like events, such as the 600-point plunge in U.S. stocks in less than 10 minutes in 2010 and the sudden rise in U.S. Treasury bond prices in 2014.”
——Ye Guanhong, Senior Trading Director of Tianyuan Financial
6. RMB falls below multiple thresholds
Since the beginning of this year, the RMB has been turbulent, and the exchange rate against the US dollar has fallen below 6.7, 6.8 and other important nodes from around 6.50 at the beginning of the year, and once fell to the 6.90 mark, depreciating The rate is nearly 6%. In dollar terms, each of us is experiencing shrinking assets. At the same time, the enthusiasm of ordinary people for foreign exchange purchases and overseas investment has also increased, and many of them are irrational investments with a high risk index.
Impact Index: ★★★★
Expert Comments: “The recent change in the exchange rate between RMB and USD is not actually RMB Devaluation, but the appreciation of the dollar. But the characteristic of the exchange rate that is easy to confuse is that it is the relationship between two currencies, and the two sides of the equation are the quantities of the two currencies, and an appreciation is directly expressed as Another depreciation, just look at one side, it is easy to lose sight of the real reason for the change.”
——Fan Gang, member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China
7. For the first time in history, treasury bond futures fell to the limit
It was only 15 minutes after the opening on December 15. In time, the six contracts of treasury bond futures dropped by the limit one after another (the tenth bond fell by 2%, and the fifth bond fell by 1.2%), which became the first limit down in the three years since the treasury bond futures were listed. Previously, treasury bond futures had fallen sharply for five consecutive trading days, and the worst was the two newly listed contracts of Ten Bonds 1709 and Five Bonds 1709. The K-line after the listing transaction on December 9 has never been It has been popular, and the cumulative decline in the four days has reached 3.89% and 2.22%.
Impact Index: ★★★★
Expert Comments:The interweaving of internal and external factors has led to an increase in short-term panic in the bond market, but financial de-leveraging is the main reason for this round of bond market decline. "Since the regulator proposed financial de-leveraging, in addition to the introduction of policies for the bond market and wealth management, a very important change has been to continuously increase the cost of open market placement, that is, by restarting reverse repurchase with a longer term of more than 14 days, and by extending The means of 'locking the short and releasing the long', such as the MLF launch period, have actually increased the weighted interest rate of the open market launch, resulting in unsustainable maturity mismatches, and began to be forced to reduce leverage."
——China Merchants Bank Asset Management Department Senior Analyst Liu Dongliang
8. OPEC reaches agreement to cut production
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has finally reached its first production cut agreement in 8 years, with an output reduction of nearly 1.2 million barrels per day. The 6-month production reduction agreement will be implemented in January 2017, and the bulls are greatly encouraged to trigger oil price violence. Pulled up, during the US session on 11.30, US oil had increased by nearly 10% in intraday trading!! OPEC members agreed to reduce oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day, and the new daily output target was 32.5 million barrels; non-OPEC countries agreed to reduce daily production by 600,000 barrels , Russia, which has cut production for the first time in 15 years, accounts for half; OPEC will establish a special committee to monitor production cuts; temporarily suspend Indonesia's OPEC membership.
Impact Index: ★★★★
Expert Comments: "Actually, everyone had expected the OPEC to reach an agreement this time. It is basically unlikely, but unexpectedly, an agreement on production freeze and production reduction has indeed been reached this time. Although its specific details have not yet been fully announced, it has been reflected from the current overall oil price performance. Recently, these two The price of natural oil is basically rising. Looking forward, we have to think about two factors that affect the price of oil, one is demand and the other is supply.”
—— Guojin Securities Wealth Management Center Analyst Huang Cendong
9. Park Geun-hye Impeached
On the afternoon of December 9, the South Korean National Assembly held a vote on the impeachment motion of President Park Geun-hye. The final result was 234 votes in favor, 56 votes against, 2 abstentions, and 7 invalid votes, and the impeachment was passed. Park Geun-hye became the second president in South Korea's history to be impeached by Congress. She has been suspended pending a final ruling on the impeachment case by the Constitutional Court.
Influence Index: ★★★★
Expert Comments: "Before the vote, the three parties in opposition will speak out, if If impeachment is vetoed, all 172 members of the three parties will resign, and Congress will face dissolution. This means, I joked, that Korean politics has hit the restart button, and Korean politics will fall into very big chaos. In the eyes of these people, if In the case of 2.3 million people taking to the streets to demonstrate, the impeachment motion failed to pass, which shows that there is a problem with the representative democracy in South Korea, and members of Congress cannot represent the public opinion, which has a great deterrent effect on the members. If these people still want to represent in the future This issue must be taken into account when public opinion is to run for election. Therefore, the opposition party's "fight against the water" approach also played a decisive role."
——Zheng Jiyong, director of the Center for Korean Studies at Fudan University
10. Obama visits Cuba
USA President Obama arrived in Havana, the capital of Cuba, on March 20, and started a two-day state visit to Cuba on March 21 and March 22. Obama became the first sitting U.S. president to visit the country in 88 years. Obama's visit to Cuba, the relaxation of relations between the United States and Cuba, has become a major news hotspot in the international political circles.
Impact Index: ★★★
Expert Comments: “Across the two countries Many challenges in the relationship are still clearly visible, such as the United States' concerns about human rights and democratic reform in Cuba, and Cuba attaches great importance to the comprehensive lifting of the embargo against Cuba by the United States and the return of the Guantanamo base. Cuban leader Castro even said that , if the above two concerns are not resolved, the US-Cuba relations will not be able to achieve full normalization. In addition, the US' special immigration policy towards Cuba, such as the "dry feet/wet feet" policy, is also an important factor that triggers disputes between the two countries. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez criticized the U.S. regulations as “selective, politically motivated, and encourage illegal, dangerous and chaotic immigration.” Obviously, these differences or difficulties do not It will not be completely resolved in the short term. The continued advancement of U.S.-Cuba relations requires more patience and wisdom.”
——Chen Jimin, associate researcher at the Institute of International Strategy of the Central Party School
Label group:[black swan event]