If you want to select the strongest take-off in the capital market this year, then there must be no less new energy vehicles. In the middle of this year, Tesla pulled Toyota to the top of the global car market value list . In less than half a year, China's new car-making forces have also hit new highs in stock prices. Among them, NIO, whose stock price has soared more than 20 times in only eight months, has surpassed all the way. BMW, GM, Ford, and Mercedes-Benz have the fourth largest market value of global car companies and the largest market value of Chinese car companies.
New Energy's stock price soars
NIOspan>The market value ranks first among Chinese auto companies
In recent days, new energy vehicles can be described as the most dazzling force in the capital market.
On November 26, on the Forbes real-time rich list, Musk surpassed Bill Gates to become the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $129.8 billion. As the founder of Tesla, Musk's fortune climbed in line with the Company's share price is closely related.
The valuation of Guoxin Energy auto companies has also soared. According to Wind data, this Tuesday, two Chinese companies ranked among the world's top five in the global automakers' market value ranking. Among them, NIO ranked fourth in the world with US$74.7 billion, BYD ranked fifth with $74.3 billion, surpassing both Daimler-Benz. It is worth mentioning that the 5 most "valuable" cars in the world are now Manufacturers, including Tesla with the highest market value, new energy vehicle companies have occupied 3 seats, only Two and three belong to Toyota and Volkswagen, respectively.
If BYD started out in the manufacture of gasoline vehicles and electronic parts, and based on years of chargingWith the precipitation of battery technology, and then becoming a new energy vehicle giant, what is the magic power of Weilai, the domestic car company with the highest market value?
In March this year, NIO’s stock price fell below $3 due to financial difficulties. However, after several months of adjustment, as of the close on November 25, Weilai’s share price has reached $53.7, which is 21.66 times higher than the $2.37 on March 23.
This is of course supported by the industry's recovery. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in October 2020, all Guoxin Energy sold 160,000 vehicles, YoY up 113%. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales were 870,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and the decline narrowed.
Huatai Securities said that this is mainly due to the launch of Shanghai, Beijing and other regions. Policies to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles.
The positive expectation is an important reason to promote the new energy stock price. At the end of April this year, NIO signed an agreement with Hefei State-owned Assets. According to the agreement, strategic investors will invest 7 billion yuan in NIO.
In addition, the recently issued "New Energy Vehicles Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", it is proposed that by 2025, the sales volume of new cars in China Guoxin Energy will reach 20% of the total sales volume of new cars. %about.
Encountered shorting by Citron
The other party said that Weilai is only half of what it is now
Only use In eight months, Weilai's stock price has reversed dramatically. In this case, on November 14, Citron, a well-known international short-selling agency, issued a report saying that Weilai's stock price has fallen out of a reasonable range, the stock price should be "halved", and the target price should be US$25. Considering that NIO’s share price has exceeded $50, according to Citron, NIO’s value is only half of what it is now.
It is intriguing that two years ago, when Citron suggested buying NIO stock, its stock price was at $7, and now it has soared to $50, but Citron is going short. what is the reason?
According to the Citron report, there are three main reasons: First, the aggressiveness of the Tesla Model Y electric car Pricing, and may change the Chinese-made Model Y from 488,000 yuanRMB dropped to RMB 374,000-388,000, which will adversely affect orders for NIO EC6 and ES6 models.
Second, the current valuation of NIO is 17-18 times of sales in the next 12 months, while Tesla is 9 times. The valuation gap between the two parties has reached a record high. China's sales are more than twice that of Weilai, and its market share in the United States is close to 50%.
The third is that NIO stock is full of speculators, "People who buy NIO stock now are not betting on the company itself or its potential, but jumping around on the buying screen.code only".
Wanlian Securities Xi'an Sales Department Investment Consultant Qu Fang believes that Weilai's advantage lies in the huge automobile consumer market in China, but judging from the latest financial report, Xpeng Motors's revenue in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 342.5% year-on-year. This growth rate has put a lot of pressure on NIO and Ideal. And in sales scale and technology applicationOn the other hand, the gap between Weilai and the head company Tesla also needs to be faced. Therefore, in the medium and long term, Weilai's valuation performance will be related to its market share.
losses of nearly 300 in the past four years 100 million
just realized the gross interest rate turned positive
on the Chinese car Weilai, the first company in terms of market value, has only been established for 6 years. In just six years, this enterprise has experienced Conformitystars to hold the moon, to have no money to burn, and then to the ups and downs of ups and downs with a market value of 70 billion US dollars .
As early as the beginning of its establishment in 2014, Weilai received Ma Huateng, Lei Jun, Liu Qiangdong and many othersInternet tycoons invest, and then continue to receive financing. On September 12, 2018, Weilai was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in the United States, raising about US$1 billion, becoming the first stock listed by a new Chinese automaker.
However, since 2019, Weilai has suffered continuous layoffs, resignations of executives, spontaneous combustion incidents, the company's stock price has plummeted, founder Li Bin It was also rated as the worst person in the car circle of the year. After turning over this year, some people ridiculed that Li Bin changed from the worst in 2019 to the most beautiful person in 2020.
As far as NIO is concerned, the soaring stock price is in line with investors' recognition of growth, but the performance barrier in the face of reality still needs to be overcome. In May of this year, NIO mentioned in its annual report to the US SEC that it has not been profitable since its establishment, and has only recently begun to generate revenue. From 2016 to 2019, NIO's cumulative net loss28.5 billion yuan, with negative cash flow from operating activities during the same period.
Because of continuous losses, as soon as the financial report comes out almost every year, some good people calculate how much money Weilai will lose by selling a car.
The good news is that in this year's three quarterly reports, NIO's gross sales interest rate turned positive for the first time, and its cash reserves exceeded 20 billion yuan. In the third-quarter earnings conference call, Li Bin expressed confidence in achieving positive cash flow from operating activities throughout the year in 2020.
For car companies, sales are the impact profit direct power. Guosen SecuritiesResearch Report believes that NIO In order to achieve profitability, the sales volume needs to reach 180,000 vehicles - NIO delivered 20,565 vehicles in 2019 and 12,206 vehicles in the first three quarters of 2020. Although it is claimed to further increase production capacity, the boost to NIO's car sales is obviously not slack. .
Buy new energy vehicles or buy their stocks?
Time is the best test of the market. Although new energy is playing an increasingly important role in the auto market, their stock prices have soared more than many expected this year. As early as June this year, Tesla's market value surpassed that of Toyota and became the world's largest market valuecar company. Since November, the market value of NIO has continuously surpassed well-known traditional car companies such as BMW, GM, Ford, and Mercedes-Benz.
However, since the day it was born, there have been constant voices of doubt about new energy vehicles, and even Tesla has not been spared. Recently, Toyota Motor President Toyota Chapter Male sparked heated discussions for his rare "bombing" of Tesla at the earnings conference. He bluntly said that although Tesla's market value is indeed very high, "it has not made real things" - this In fact, it reflects the attitude of traditional car companies.
An investment banker believes that in the context of electrification, the status and valuation of traditional auto giants are feeling great challenges from new forces, but at the same time, the annual sales of many new energy vehicle companies have Not as many sales as a model owned by an established car company. Since it is impossible for auto consumers to continue to grow explosively, the re-segmentation of the market cake is bound to involve fierce competition. Whether new energy vehicle companies can continue to be optimistic in the future will depend on environmental protection policies, consumer travel and vehicle purchase choices.
At least at this stage, the big wave set off by the new car-making forces is in the capital market. There was such a topic on Zhihu recently, "If you buy 100,000 NIO stocks now, how likely are you to be financially free in ten years?" The respondents, whether they agree or disagree, are basically concerned about the stock itself, but they don't know. How many of them are new energy vehicle owners.
(article source: China Economic Net)