On the tenth anniversary of its listing, Tesla's stock price hit a new all-time high.
On the evening of June 30, Tesla's U.S. stock market closed at $1,079.81, up 6.98% on the day, and its market value exceeded $200 billion for the first time. As of the close of U.S. stocks that day, Tesla’s market value was equivalent to 1.1 Toyota, 5.5 GM, 7 BYD, 8 Ford or 22 Weilai.
Source: Tiger Securities
10 years ago in Na At the beginning of the Starq IPO, Tesla’s offering price was only $17, and the closing price on the day of the listing was $23.89. This means that Tesla shares have risen 44 times compared to the closing price on the first day of listing. If someone were lucky enough to buy Tesla shares at the issue price 10 years ago, they would have 62.5 times earnings today.
According to CNBC's calculations, Tesla's stock price has risen more than Netflix, Amazon, and Apple in the past 10 years.
The surge in stock prices has also boosted the personal wealth of Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk. According to the Forbes real-time rich list, Musk's net worth has reached 44.6 billion US dollars, surpassing Ma Yun and ranking 22nd. Chinese friends who have "close kinship" with Tesla also benefited one after another. On July 1, many suppliers such as INVT, Aoteca, and Molding Technology "happily mentioned" the daily limit.
"The history of Apple's development is repeating itself with Tesla." An analysis of Essence Securities said. Ron Baron, founder of Barron's Capital, believes that "Tesla's stock price may reach $3,000 in 5 years" and is expected to become a trillion-dollar company within 10 years.
Tesla, which has left many century-old brands and strong rivals behind, will successfully replicate the Apple myth in the future?
Who is igniting Tesla's share price?
Tesla will announce the delivery data for the second quarter this week, and the positive market expectation is undoubtedly the most direct factor for the stock price to climb.
Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy predicted in a report that Tesla's June sales were very strong, and second-quarter deliveries could fall Between 90,000 and 100,000 vehicles, about 31,000 of them are from the Chinese market. Electrek also reported that Tesla had delivered more than 50,000 vehicles in North America in June, with nearly 10,000 still in transit. In Asia and Europe, Tesla deliveries could also beat expectations.
Tesla's deliveries were indeed picking up by the end of the second quarter of this year. Musk is also confident in Tesla's earnings performance, writing in a recent email "until the last few days": "Breaking even looks very urgent. Every car you deliver or build All cars will make a difference, please go all out to ensure victory!"
Therefore, Guosen Securities believes that there are two factors driving Tesla's stock price changes: First, Model 3. Sales growth rate and the delivery speed of Model Y overseas and domestically. The second is the progress of new orders from domestic component suppliers and Tesla.
Tesla's stock price has continued to rise since the beginning of 2020, mainly due to the opening of Tesla's factory in Shanghai and the start of production at the former US car plant in Fremont, California Model Y. Recently, the highly anticipated Tesla Semi truck prototype rarely hit the road, responsible for the shipment of Tesla vehicles to be delivered, which also injected a "stimulant" into Tesla's stock price.
Tesla Semi prototype truck source: Electrek
While the Semi The truck has not yet been mass-produced, but the industry is very optimistic about its market demand. According to Electrek, 80% of cargo in the United States is transported by the heaviest Class 8 trucks, which sell more than 250,000 vehicles a year and have a market size of more than $30 billion.
Tesla hasn't posted a full-year profit since its first quarterly profit in 2013. But in the last three quarters, Tesla has been profitable. Musk made a rhetoric not long ago, "I believe that Tesla can break even every quarter in the event of any major economic downturn." CNBC believes that if losses are avoided in the second quarter, Tesla will be included in the standard. S&P 500 or just around the corner.
A veritable wealth-making machine
Tesla, whose stock price has soared 62 times in 10 years, has become a veritable wealth-making machine, and the company that has benefited the most from it It's Musk, whose net worth has risen.
According to the statistics of Forbes real-time rich list, as of 5:00 pm EST on June 29, Musk’s net worth reached 44.6 billion US dollars, surpassing the previous one with an advantage of 1.4 billion US dollars Jack Ma, who has always been ahead of him, has become the 22nd richest person in the world.
In addition, Bloomberg data shows that Tesla's Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) fund has recorded capital inflows for the 17th consecutive week, and hit a record of more than 40% this year. Income, earn a lot of money.
Tesla concept stocks also ushered in a capital feast. On July 1, Tesla suppliers such as INVT, Aoteca, and Molding Technology collectively increased their daily limit, and Kelai Machinery, Changlu, Dangsheng Technology, and Yinlun shares rose by more than 6%. The share price of Xusheng, which supplies Tesla's North American and Shanghai factories, rose 58.3% in one year, while the share price of Tesla's chassis supplier, Topology Group, rose nearly 80% in one year.
The source of the collective rise of Tesla concept stocks: Flush
Except Excellent performance in the secondary market, "Pang on" Tesla itself is a good way to get rich.
In October 2013, Xusheng passed the Tesla certification, becoming one of the earliest companies to enter the Tesla supply chain in China. The financial report shows that Xusheng’s external sales revenue rose from 218 million yuan in 2015 to 837 million yuan in 2019. Among them, Xusheng achieved sales revenue of 589 million yuan to Tesla in 2019, accounting for 53.69% of operating revenue.
Sanhua Zhikong, a refrigeration and air-conditioning control components and parts supplier located in Xinchang County, Zhejiang Province, has experienced a similar story of getting rich. In 2018, Tesla brought revenue of 50 million yuan to Sanhua Zhikong. Dongxing Securities estimates that with the expansion of the production scale of Tesla's Shanghai factory, it is expected that this figure will become 100 million-150 million yuan in 2019-2020.
In order to reduce costs, the localization of Tesla's supply chain continues, which means that more and more Chinese companies will join Tesla's circle of friends. According to the schedule planned by Tesla for the domestic version of Model 3, in January this year, the localization rate of parts and components in Tesla's Shanghai plant will be 30%, and will increase to 70%-80% by July this year, and will be realized by the end of the year. Localization of all parts.
"Tesla is expected to reproduce Apple's development in the past 10 years and drive the prosperity of the entire industry chain." Dongxing Securities judged in the research report.
Dongxing Securities said that Tesla products are at the 2C end like Apple, and are prone to explosive growth. At the same time, both automobiles and smartphones have a long industrial chain, and terminal products have an obvious role in pulling the industrial chain. In addition, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts that the new energy vehicle industry will grow to a market size of 10 trillion yuan, and its potential will exceed that of the smartphone industry.
Traditional car companies?
On June 10th, Tesla surpassed Toyota with a market value of US$183.7 billion and became the world's largest car company by market value. A new high, once again throwing away traditional car companies.
This seems to confirm the sentiments of Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess at an internal meeting: " The era of belonging to traditional automakers is over. "And just seven years ago, the "century-old store" Volkswagen scoffed at Tesla, claiming that Volkswagen "will become the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer in 2018."
Compared with traditional auto giants like Toyota and Volkswagen that sell tens of millions of vehicles a year, Tesla’s current annual sales are less than 500,000 vehicles. The reason why it has become the world’s most valuable car company is its potential profitability And the strong software R&D capability is the cornerstone of its profitability.
Diess believes that the automobile will become the most important mobile intelligent terminal. At this point, we will also understand why Tesla is so valuable from an analyst's point of view." He admits that "integrating powerful software into a new model of Volkswagen is much more difficult than electrifying the car", while special Every two weeks, Sila updates the vehicle system by collecting data to continuously bring a new driving experience to consumers.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun judges, " Tesla is 6 years ahead of Toyota and Volkswagen in the electronics industry", Tesla's competitors won't make chips of the same level until 2025.
In addition to software research and development capabilities, Tesla is also one step ahead in battery technology. In recent years, Tesla has been taking steps to build its own battery empire. University battery researchers have reached an exclusive battery cooperation agreement to build a battery production line at the Fremont, Calif., factory. Musk announced on the first-quarter 2020 earnings call that the upcoming "Battery Day" will be the "most exciting" in Tesla's history. An exciting day."
Gene Munster, managing partner of Loup Ventures, believes that Tesla's business miracle stems from the company Operating for several years with virtually no competition, with a nearly 10-year lead that will continue for a long time to come. If the automotive world can produce the next Apple, Tesla would be the best "man" ".
Faced with Tesla's offensive, traditional car companies are not without advantages. They have strong financial strength and strong technical accumulation in hardware. , while Tesla has been repeatedly complained about rough workmanship and lax quality control. Under the wave of electrification and intelligence, Tesla needs to continue to practice its basic skills before it is expected to replicate the myth of Apple's trillion-dollar market value.
Author | Xiaoyu Wu
Editor | Yan Wu
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