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[Stock Classroom]: "Four Misunderstandings" About Stock Formula Indicators _ Meng Lining _ Sina Blog

Release Time:2022-04-13 Topic:stock formula Reading:26 Navigation:Stock Liao information > Emotion > [Stock Classroom]: "Four Misunderstandings" About Stock Formula Indicators _ Meng Lining _ Sina Blog phone-reading

30 days ago, just after New Year's Day, I mentioned in a blog post that the Internet Many stock trading indicator formulas searched on the Internet are useless. If they are slightly better, they can adjust the parameters of traditional KDJ and MACD or make a new face (for example, Yang Wanyi can actually compile several million series indicators). It's the garbage that smashes the rivers and lakes, and those source codes are basically appalling. In fact, during the New Year's Day, I also found a blog post about the trap behind the high success rate formula. The excerpt is as follows and slightly embellished. The opinions of this blog are also included. At the same time, I spontaneously recommend a series of indicators compiled by this blog, please refer to the blog post: ( to be continued).

How to judge the quality of the formula? The first subjective feeling of many people is to see how high the success rate of the formula is. It seems that the higher the success rate, the better the performance of the formula. Some people take advantage of this one-sided view of investors and rack their brains to create a bunch of formulas that are not useful to deceive investors. They often use the following deception techniques:

Deception 1: To improve The success rate is the ultimate goal, resulting in a massive reduction in signal or over-concentration of signal, with signs of catering to a historical special situation. It is characterized by a large number of attacks at the bottom of the history, and few or even losses in the rest of the time period. Due to the great weight of the number of attacks at the bottom of the history, even if the remaining stages are failure records, the overall success rate can still be maintained. This loses the statistical significance of the test results and has no practical value!

Identification method: see the hit distribution map.

Friendly reminder: When you buy the stock selection formula again, be sure to ask the other party for the strike distribution map. If the other party is unwilling to provide it, be careful. Many websites only provide test charts of the success rate, but dare not post the attack distribution chart. 99% of such websites are deceptive websites, please stay away. Some websites even offer password-verified downloads every day (delete them if they are wrong, or claim that the original is damaged and require re-downloading, etc.), but they dare not publish any evaluation pictures. You must think twice before purchasing. Of course, improving the success rate is the goal of all technical analysis indicators, as long as the starting point is to have a broad theoretical basis or experience and practice, rather than deliberately sculpting for the one-sided pursuit of the success rate.

Trick 2: Use the formula for attacking the daily limit. This kind of formula often has a very high short-term success rate, and the attack distribution is also very good, which is very confusing. Many websites sell such formulas. Not tired of it, some well-known websites have also joined the ranks, with prices of thousands or even tens of thousands of yuan. This type of formula is mainly based on chasing the daily limit of stocks, and a buy signal is issued when the stock reaches the limit. Once a buy signal is issued, it is often impossible to buy. Even if you queue up to buy, but once the daily limit is opened, the buy signal Then it disappears. At this time, investors can only admit that they are unlucky. It is not a good thing to set the daily limit.

Identification method: see the attack case, whether the attacked stock has a daily limit! For example, the formula to attack the daily limit can be:

x:=close/ref(close,1)>1.099 andclose=high;

y:=vol

x and y;

Deception 3: The formula of using future data, the so-called future data is to rely on the later data to have an impact on the results earlier in time, that is to say, once the selected stock falls, the buy signal issued before will automatically disappear, Therefore, regardless of the success rate, attack distribution, or examples, such formulas are impeccably perfect. For those who make such formulas for sale, they can only be described as wicked.

Identification method: see if the website is guaranteed to have no future data (of course, some websites will say no in order to achieve their goals), secondly, look at the reputation of the website and the length of its establishment. The website that is designed to deceive people has a very poor reputation. , often firing a shot and changing places every few months. The page is easy to make, no phone calls, no forums, etc.

Deceit 4: Use the method of stealing the beam and changing the column to change the MACD indicator, Williams indicator, Bollinger Bands, KDJ and other commonly used indicators.Packing it with various gorgeous appearances and wasting system resources is simply useless. The use of indicators is not the pursuit of its gorgeous appearance, but practical functions.

The above are just some common deceptions, of course, there are many more that will not be pointed out one by one. I just hope that the majority of netizens will learn more about the analysts before purchasing the formula. Common sense, how long a mind can make a liar have no room to specialize in.

For those who are interested in formulating their own formula indicators, I hope the following can be of some help to you. In order to free themselves from the tedious work of picking stocks, many formula writers will make up some good formulas of their own secrets. But the actual combat effect is still not good. This may be that they have fallen into a misunderstanding, but it is not far from success. Unfortunately, the vast majority of people are engulfed in misconceptions and become formula futilists. Here I just want to talk about a few misunderstandings I have gone through and remind my friends to be careful.

Misunderstanding 1: Excessive pursuit of success rate or other test statistics

Whether a formula is good or bad, the success rate is of course a very important measure, but it is not the only one. Too high a success rate often causes the signal volume to be reduced to a very low level and the signal to be too concentrated, which loses the statistical significance of the test results and shows signs of catering to a special historical situation. In fact, a good practical formula does not necessarily require a high historical test success rate, more than 70% is not bad.

Misunderstanding 2: Over-adjusting or over-elaborating the parameters in the formula

Generally, some parameters need to be adjusted and optimized in the process of formula preparation. But any parameter in the formula generally has its actual meaning and suitable adjustment range. If the parameters are adjusted too much, the formula will be distorted and the original meaning of the formula will be lost. In addition, even adjustments within a reasonable range should not be overly fine-tuned. In many cases, parameter adjustment can adjust a certain indicator (such as the success rate) to a maximum value, but it tends to be a historical special case and has no practical significance. Many analysis software provide so-called parameter optimization platforms, which should be used with care.

Myth 3: Formulas are composed of too many sub-formulas

Formulas are often composed of several sub-formulas (or sub-conditions) combined with conditional "and" or conditional "or" made. Each addition of a sub-condition increases the degree of freedom of the formula, and the larger the degree of freedom, the easier it tends to be a historical special case, and the arbitrariness of the formula decreases rapidly. The sub-conditions of the general formula should be controlled within five.

Myth 4: Insufficient understanding of the algorithm of analysis software, misled by it its impact. For example, "Analyst" version 3.16 calculates the buying and selling price according to the average price, and the default setting of the average price is "close+high+low/3". This looks plausible and actually references future data. Because the commonly used values ​​in the formula, such as closing price, trading volume, etc., are only known at the close, and the buying signal suggested by it is used to guide intraday buying (the buying price is set at "close+high+low/3" ) is actually inoperable, which is to refer to future data. The high test success rate of the "low open big Yang Xian" formula is the result of this misleading.

The above errors can be seen in many formulas, which can be summed up as: lack of consideration of the feasibility of the formula. Feasibility here refers to the ability of a formula to maintain its good properties in future use. This should be the focus of the practical formula!

Although formula indicators are not everything! But in the case of a relatively general technical level, it is absolutely impossible to have no formula indicators. When you reach the super-class level, you can say that the formula indicators are useless, but before you reach this goal, the formula indicators are still useful! This is like a person who learns martial arts. Before reaching the highest realm, the one-shot and one-style martial arts is still useful, and it is the formal entry way for you to learn martial arts, and it is also the only way for you to become a martial arts master! When you reach the ranks of the martial arts masters one day, you can proudly say: there are no tricks to win! Only then can we say: indicators and formulas are useless!

Also, you must use extreme formulas in extreme market conditions. Don't always use the formula of a big bull market in a big bear market, you will die miserably! Bull markets have bull market thinking, bear markets have bear market thinking, different market practices are different.

Finally, next week, a blog post will launch a series of indicators compiled by this blog in several months of spare time. It is based on years of experience in stock trading and understanding of analytical formulas. From technology, capital, intelligence From various aspects, without using daily limit formulas or future functions, historical tests have achieved some trading and stock selection indicators with a high success rate. I personally think theseThe indicators are still relatively easy to use. Although they are not perfect, they are still working hard to improve them, and they will also research and develop more intelligent technologies. At present, the results of this stage are launched first, and we look forward to and thank you for your support to support the further technical efforts of this blog.

   

   






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【stock class】:Thematic index(special1)——Investment Philosophy and Values






 

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