Smart Things (Public Number: zhidxcom)
Editor | Fourteen
In the past two years, the enclosure in the field of smart cars The war is fierce, with both Google's self-driving prototype and Tesla's self-driving assistance system, and Apple also squeezed into the blue ocean with its in-vehicle system Carplay. Compared with the giant's games, parts manufacturing, and economic models, what deserves more attention may be the domestic auto industry chain.
According to China's smart car development goals proposed by the State Council, in 2030, smart cars, including advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and fully autonomous driving markets, will reach a market penetration rate of 75%, while the global Market penetration is expected to be 65%.
For the smart internal reference in this issue, we recommend the survey report on China's smart car industry from JPMorgan Chase
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The following are the dry goods presented by intelligent internal reference:
| Four stages of intelligent car development
2015 The "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" released in November 2009 put forward the requirements of "implementing the new energy vehicle promotion plan and improving the level of electric vehicle industrialization". In this regard, J.P Morgen pointed out at the Paris Climate Conference that, driven by the policy, the average annual compound growth rate of China's electric vehicle market in the next ten years can reach 30%.
Similar to new energy vehicles, policies will also be the main driving force for the promotion of smart vehicles. According to the definition of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the development of smart cars can be divided into 4 major stages:
1. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS): These types of cars can enhance the safety of driving , the main functions include front collision warning system, automatic emergency braking, blind spot detection, night vision and so on.
2. Autonomous driving in specific environments: This type of smart car can achieve autonomous driving in high-speed or traffic jam environments. The realization of this stage requires the integration of various functions of ADAS, including automatic braking, automatic accelerator, and automatic steering.
3. Autonomous driving in various environments: At this stage, the automatic driving function adapts to almost all road conditions. The main problem at this stage is that in the face of individual unsuitable environments, the car must use Appropriate and timely handover of driving rights to the driver.
4. Real autonomous driving: At this stage, the car develops into a true autonomous driving. As long as the end-to-end is determined, the car can complete the entire trip autonomously even without a driver.
Based on government support, smart cars The development of commercialization, the improvement of public trust in the safety of smart cars, and the introduction of autonomous driving to promote the experience of car sharing services (such as Uber), JPMorgan Chase predicted the development of the smart car market size. In 2015, the market share of smart cars was 11%; it is estimated that in 2030, smart cars of the 1-4 level will account for about 65% of the car consumption market, or nearly 77 million units.
| China's auto manufacturing ambitions
Internationally, policies will drive market penetration of smart cars. Starting in May 2018, cars sold across the U.S. will be equipped with rear-view cameras. In the European Union, car manufacturers (OEMs) will have to improve their safety factors, including emergency braking, adaptive cruise control, etc., in order to receive five stars in the European New Car Assessment Test (NCAP) crash test. Japan is expected to allow self-driving cars to be tested on the road in 2017, and South Korea will open up test areas first, and then allow the real rollout of self-driving cars.
China's policy planning has also become JPMorgan Chase's main basis for forecasting its smart car development. In May 2015, China's State Council released the "Made in China 2025" plan, targeting ten strategic industries, including new energy vehicles and autonomous vehicles, with clear goals:
1. In 2020, the market share of smart cars in the first and second stages will reach 30%, and Chinese auto parts suppliers will account for about 50% of this field.
2. In 2025, the market share of smart cars in the third stage will reach 10%-20%, and Chinese auto parts suppliers will account for about 10%-20% of this field.
3. In 2030, the market share of smart cars in the fourth stage will reach 10%, and Chinese auto parts suppliers will account for about 10% of this field.
In other words, the most important problem that China's smart car market may face is the rapid expansion of the ADAS (first and second stage) and semi/automatic (third and fourth stages) markets. The compound annual growth rate of the previous year was about 120%, and the compound annual growth rate between 2016 and 2030 was 36%. In 2025, the market size may reach 10 billion US dollars, while this year's data is only 85 million US dollars. That is to say, 67% of the market penetration can be achieved in 2030, and a more optimistic estimate, China can even achieve the target of 75% of the penetration rate of smart cars.
JPMorgan believes that , In the next decade, the main revenue of China's auto market (monthly 60%-70%) will come from hardware, that is, sensors, brakes, etc.; the rest will be software, including maps, positioning and other services. It is worth noting that the growth rate of software development will exceed that of hardware, with a compound annual growth rate of 80% by 2025 and a compound annual growth rate of about 55% in 2030.
The current development situation in China is that, taking Geely as an example, all smart cars released in 2016 are in the first stage ADAS models, including GC9, Boyue, GS, and GL, all have emergency braking and adaptive cruise functions.
| Smart Vehicle Industry The 23 major domestic players of the chain
The main components of ADAS-type smart cars include sensors (radar, cameras, etc.), power control units, brakes, etc. Higher-end self-driving cars require more sensors.
In this regard, JP Morgan has compiled a map of China's smart car industry chain, including auto parts, central control systems, etc. And took stock of 23 major players:
1. Minth Group: Acquisition of Camera Module Company
This is a foreign-funded auto parts manufacturer established in Ningbo in 2001. It is a core player in domestic auto exterior decoration accessories. Cooperative auto manufacturers include GM, Ford, Honda, Toyota, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, etc., with a current market value of 3,962 million US dollars. . Minth Group recently acquired Taiwan-based camera module supplier SP Tek and plans to expand its business into smart car ADAS system modules.
2. Nexteer: independent research and development of intelligent control
Nexteer was once a wholly-owned subsidiary of General Motors. Has three wholly-owned and joint venture factories, the main business includes electric power steering, hydraulic power steering, steering column and transmission shaft products, cooperative car manufacturers include GM, Ford, Chrysler, Volkswagen, PeugeotCitroen, Fiat, BMW, etc., currently have a market value of $3,399 million. At present, Nexteer's main research and development direction is the integration of ADAS software and steering and braking systems.
3. Sunny Optical: Mobileye's main supplier
This is a manufacturer of optical components and optoelectronic products, accounting for 30% of the market share of automotive lenses, and its main partners include intelligent Car warning system Mobileye, along with a few others and suppliers, is currently valued at $5,423 million.
4. Shenzhen Oufeiguang: Investing in an autonomous driving company
This is an idea component manufacturer established in 2001, whose main business includes touch technology, imaging technology and biometric technology Wait, the current market cap is $5,803 million. At present, OFILM’s layout in the smart car business includes sensors (cameras, radars), controllers (HD panoramic surround view system, ADAS), central control infotainment systems, etc., and has invested in the autonomous driving startup iCruise Automation.
5. SMIC: Acquisition of an automotive electronics foundry
This is a foreign-owned integrated circuit manufacturer established in 2000, with a current market value of US$5,178 million, which was acquired in June this year Acquired a 70% stake in LFoundry, an Italian integrated circuit foundry, and officially entered the automotive electronics industry.
6. Joyson Electronics: Acquisition to improve its intelligent central control layout
This is a Ningbo auto parts supplier established in 2004, focusing on automobile central control system, cooperation Businesses include BMW, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, etc., with a current market value of $3,518 million. In February this year, the company acquired KSS in the United States and TechniSat in Germany to further improve the layout of its active safety, vehicle information system and new HMI (central control system) for smart cars.
7. Qiming Information: Inheriting the Historical Advantages of Automobile Management Software
This is a supplier of automobile management software and electronic products established in Changchun in 2000. Its main layout in the field of smart cars Including Lane Departure Warning (LDW) and software solutions, it currently has a market value of $822 million.
8. Zhejiang Wanan: Inheriting the historical advantages of the braking system business
This is an automobile braking system supplier established in Zhejiang, with a current market value of 1.783 billion US dollars. The system can also be used for ADAS.
9. Asia-Pacific Electromechanical: Inheriting the historical advantages of braking system business
This is a private auto parts enterprise established in Zhejiang in 1976. Its main business includes automobile braking system, automobile Hydraulic ABS, etc., the main users are FAW, Chery, Dongfeng, Shanghai GM, etc., the current market value is 1.841 billion US dollars. The main layout of its smart car includes adaptive cruise system (ACC), automatic emergency braking system (AEB), lane departure system (LDWS), forward collision avoidance warning system (FCWS) and so on.
10. Beidouxingtong: Inheriting the historical advantages of navigation and positioning
This is a Beijing company established in 2000, focusing on satellite navigation and positioning business. Its main layout in the field of smart cars includes vehicles Operation monitoring management system, GPS track test system, vehicle transportation monitoring system scheme, etc., the current market value is 2.373 billion US dollars.
11. DEREN Electronics: Cooperating with Mobileye on Image Processing
This is a Shenzhen electronic connector manufacturer established in 1992. In May this year, it cooperated with Mobileye to develop camera image processing technology.
12. NavInfo: Inheriting the Historical Advantages of Digital Maps
This is a state-owned geographic information provider established in Beijing in 2002. Its business content includes digital map content, Internet of Vehicles and Dynamic traffic information services, location-related business intelligence solutions, etc. The current market cap is $3,577 million.
13. Hikvision: Inheriting the advantages of visual & inertial dual navigation technology
This is a Hangzhou-based monitoring product supplier, focusing on video processing technology and video analysis technology, and its current market value $22.83 million. In June this year, the subsidiary Hikvision Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. was established to focus on ADAS, and it launched an intelligent parking robot system at this year's Internet Conference, which can dispatch 500 cars at the same time.
14. Neusoft Group: Inheriting the Historical Advantages of Visual Technology
This is a Shenyang IT solution and service provider established in 1991, with a market value of 3,269 million US dollars, currently in ADAS ofThe main layout focuses on target detection and recognition algorithms to help deal with complex road conditions.
15. AutoNavi Infrared: Infrared technology assists driving with night vision function
This is a Wuhan infrared thermal imaging system manufacturer established in 1999, the main products are infrared thermal imaging At present, the market value is 2.464 billion US dollars, and its main layout in ADAS is night vision driving assistance system.
16. Dali Technology: Infrared technology assists driving with night vision function
This is an infrared technology company established in Zhejiang, with a current market value of 818 million US dollars, providing night vision driving auxiliary system.
17. Superstar Technology: A Smart Company Started From Hardware
This is a Hangzhou-based hardware product company that established a robotics subsidiary in 2014, with a current market value of US$2,892 million. Hangzhou Juxing acquired Huada Laser in 2015, which specializes in precision laser control and 3D laser scanning technology.
18. Datang Telecom: Inheriting the historical advantages of electronic control
This is a Beijing telecommunications technology company established in 1998, its main business includes integrated circuit design, software and applications, terminals Design and mobile Internet, etc., provide automotive electronic control units for ADAS, with a current market value of 2,512 million US dollars.
19. Top Group: Electric vacuum pump assists intelligent brakes
This is a private auto parts manufacturer established in Ningbo in 1983. Its main business includes shock absorption, interior trim, suspension Frame, etc., with a market value of $2,798 million, its electric vacuum pump has been adopted by automakers into the automatic emergency braking system, and it is expected to launch intelligent auxiliary braking in 2018.
20. iFLYTEK: Inheriting the advantages of voice control technology
iFLYTEK focuses on intelligent voice and language technology research, software and chip product development, voice information services and e-government system integration, With a current market value of $5.64 billion, it is working with Changan Automobile, Huawei, and AutoNavi to develop prototypes of autonomous vehicles.
21. Zhejiang Dahua: Provide Human-Machine Interface Solutions
This is a Zhejiang-based security technology company that provides human-machine interface solutions for smart cars, with a current market value of US$6,743 million .
22. LeTV: Super Cars under Crisis
Jia Yueting announced the car-building plan in 2014, and held a press conference at Beijing Wukesong Stadium on October 27 this year. Launched the prototype car LeSEE.
23. Tongzhi Electronics: Taiwanese electronic component supplier
This is a Taiwanese automotive electronic component supplier, the main products include cameras, radar, ADAS solutions, etc., the current market value is 118800 Ten thousand U.S. dollars.
Smart Things believes that the domestic smart car industry is still in its infancy, mainly concentrated in Beijing, Shenzhen, Zhejiang and other places. It can be seen that the current popular way of playing is that traditional auto parts manufacturers with strong financial resources and non-technical research and development types expand their business coverage and obtain the technical means required for smart cars by acquiring and investing in foreign companies. The current layout is also Mainly focus on ADAS; traditional automotive electronic products, software management, brake system R&D, and manufacturing companies continue their own R&D advantages and shift their business focus to smart cars.
Attachment: Global Intelligent Driving Players and Industry Chain
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