Quoting from industry sources, the financial data for March was "all-round good"-the total amount is good, and the structure is good; the table is good , Off-balance sheet, good business, good residents, medium to long-term good, short-term good, short-term residents also set a record... The market and the industry paid unprecedented attention to the financial data in March.
The effect of the lenient credit policy continues to show. In March, key data such as new credit, broad money (M2) growth rate, and increase in social financing exceeded expectations, and financial “blood transfusion” to entities was further strengthened.
On April 12, the central bank released financial credit data for March. The increase in social financing in March was 2.860 billion yuan, which is expected to be 1.850 billion yuan, and the previous value was 703 billion yuan. In March, RMB loans increased by 1.69 trillion yuan, which is expected to be 1.25 trillion yuan, and the previous value was 885.8 billion yuan.
At the end of March, the balance of broad money (M2) was 188.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, and the growth rate was 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month and the same period of the previous year; the balance of narrow money (M1) 54.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year, the growth rate was 2.6 percentage points higher than the end of last month, and 2.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 7.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year.
A number of securities firm research institutions and macro strategy teams released relevant interpretations.
CICC's fixed income Chen Jianheng:
Early lending and early return drive loans to exceed expectations. Be wary of high and low and structural differentiation p>
1) Over-expected loans still show signs of redemption, not real financing demand has improved substantially
The loans in March were much higher than expected, 570 billion higher than the same period last year. However, the significant year-on-year increase was mainly reflected in the on-balance sheet bills, short-term residential loans and short-term corporate loans, which were 100 billion, 230 billion and 230 billion more than the same period last year.
Among the loans in the first quarter of this year, the significant year-on-year increase in bills and short-term corporate loans was the main contribution to the overall loan growth. Bills are mainly driven by arbitrage, and short-term corporate loans are driven by the increase in bank liquidity loans to offset the scale. Medium and long-term loans to enterprises and residents did not increase significantly. Residents experienced a significant contraction in February in the short term, and there was a quicker recovery in March, but the overall first quarter was basically the same as the same period last year.
During our roadshow in the middle and late quarters of the first quarter, communication with the bank showed that the overall loan demand was relatively weak, and the higher-than-expected loan may be due to the bank’s acceleration of loan placement in the last ten days. In particular, the loan placement of policy banks may be the main part that exceeded expectations, while the loans of state-owned banks and joint-stock banks may not significantly exceed expectations.
On the whole, although loans in March and the first quarter were higher than expected, they still reflected the traces of early lending, early returns and artificial offsetting of loans, and did not reflect the obvious recovery of financing demand. In fact, this year's financing demand has been weak, and the relaxation of financial supervision has promoted the restoration of loans and non-standard supply, which has improved general liquidity, and broad-spectrum interest rates such as loans and non-standard have begun to fall from high levels, depressing risk premiums.
2) Inter-provincial and regional differentiation of loans has intensified, liquidity is more concentrated in economically developed areas, and liquidity risks in economically underdeveloped areas have increased.
From the data on loans and social financing in different provinces It can be seen that since last year, there has been a sharp divergence in liquidity at the inter-provincial level, and the divergence has become more pronounced since the beginning of the year. Both corporate loans and residential loans are now accelerating to flow to the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing and eastern coastal provinces and cities. In contrast, economically underdeveloped areas and third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities have noWhether it is at the level of loans, social financing or land sales, liquidity has deteriorated significantly.
Therefore, since the beginning of the year, the inter-provincial divergence of economic data and the divergence of real estate recovery in first- and second-tier cities but accelerating decline in the third, fourth and fifth tiers have also been observed. For economically developed regions and first- and second-tier cities, economic conditions have improved, driven by ample liquidity, but economically underdeveloped regions and third-, fourth-, and fifth-tier cities may further decline, leading to increased risks in economically underdeveloped areas. The better is better, and the worse is worse. This is the current economic structure, but this means that the risk appetite of financial institutions has declined.
3) M2's rebound is due to the increase in loans. In addition, fiscal investment and rapid growth of securities margin are also the main driving forces.
In the case of a significant increase in loans year-on-year, M2 also So it picked up. But deposits only increased by 210 billion year-on-year, which was not as obvious as the increase in loans. From the perspective of the composition of M2, we believe that the main reason is that the size of securities margin increased sharply year-on-year to promote the rise of M2. 90% of the securities margin is counted in M2. Due to the hot stock market in March, the number of stock accounts opened sharply. From a year-on-year perspective, the securities margin will form a more obvious year-on-year pull.
From the perspective of deposits itself, in addition to the deposits derived from the increase in loans, the acceleration of fiscal expenditures has led to a decline in fiscal deposits of nearly 700 billion, which is significantly higher than the 480 billion in the same period last year. It is also the recovery of corporate deposits. major factor. Last year, there was greater pressure on corporate liquidity. This year, companies reduced the payment of wages and bonuses to residents through layoffs and salary cuts, which slowed down the growth of residents’ deposits, while corporate deposits improved, coupled with the acceleration of loan placement and the start of the April reduction of value-added tax. The liquidity of enterprises will improve to a certain extent, which is also reflected in the improvement of M1 growth rate.
We believe that the improvement of M1 growth rate is more stable than the improvement of M2 and social finance, which stems from the reverse change in the liquidity of enterprises and residents.
4) Social finance increased significantly due to improvements in loans and non-standards and the pre-issuance of local bonds . Improvements and surpassing expectations came from four aspects: (1) the loan scale increased year-on-year; (2) the scale of on-balance-sheet and off-balance sheet bills rose again; (3) non-standard increments improved year-on-year; (4) pre-issuance of local government bonds.
Loans are currently artificially offsetting the traces of loans. The earlier release means that the follow-up may slow down, and the year-on-year increase in on-balance-sheet and off-balance sheet bills is the main factor for the year-on-year rise in loans and social financing in the first quarter. The follow-up depends on supervision and Arbitrage space is expected to gradually decline overall. Non-standard supervision has been relaxed this year, but under the condition that other financing channels are unblocked, non-standard financing needs are diverted by loans and bond issuance. Bank asset management reflects that non-standard growth this year is weak. It is difficult for non-standard to turn positive throughout the year, but the degree of shrinkage will Lower than 2018. The pre-issuance of local government bonds will indeed support social financing and fiscal expenditures in the first half of the year. However, in the second half of the year, local government bond issuances have begun to decrease, and they have started to decrease significantly year-on-year, which will again drag down the growth of social financing.
Huang Wentao of CITIC Construction Investment Macro:
The credit cycle has stabilized marginally, and the second half of the second quarter will look at stocks and debts.
1) Resident sector The better performance of loans that month may be related to the short-term rebound in real estate sales. Auto retail sales grew negative year-on-year in March, but real estate sales in 30 large and medium-sized cities rebounded, which is expected to drive the cumulative growth rate of national real estate sales to rebound by 1.2% in March. It is speculated that the rebound in new residential loans may be related to the short-term improvement in real estate sales.
2) Short-term corporate loans and bill financing are still the main growth points, and the marginal restoration of new medium and long-term loans. From a quarterly perspective, new corporate loans in the first quarter increased by 1.390 billion year-on-year, but medium- and long-term loans increased by only 1,200 year-on-year. Short-term corporate loans and bill financing were still the main growth points.
3) The growth rate of social finance has rebounded, helping the economy to stabilize in the short term. The scale of social financing in March was 2,860 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1,275.2 billion. The growth rate of social financing under the new caliber was 10.7%, up 0.6% from the previous month. Under the combined effect of changes in residential, corporate, and non-bank loans, social financing caliber loans were 195.9 billion yuan, an increase of 816.6 billion year-on-year, which was the main driver that caused social financing to be higher than expected that month.
4) The rebound in currency growth may be related to financing expansion. In March, financial institutions added 1.720 billion yuan in RMB deposits, an increase of 210 billion yuan year-on-year. The main reason for the faster-than-expected rebound of M2 growth may be on the financing side.
5) In general, the credit cycle has stabilized marginally, and the future direction remains to be seen. The rebound in social financial growth is expected to lead to a temporary stabilization of real GDP growth in the second quarter by stimulating demand from the real economy. However, from the perspective of a longer time dimension, an increase in the base number may not be conducive to the sales of real estate in the 30 large and medium-sized cities across the country.The continued stimulus of automobile retail sales, and the negative growth of auto retail shows that the growth of household consumption expenditure is still relatively weak. The absolute reduction in the scale of shed reform has slowed down the growth of real estate investment and sales, and investment in the manufacturing industry is still subject to PPI deflation, decline in capacity utilization, and industry differentiation. Therefore, there are still many uncertainties whether the future economy and credit will continue to be better than expected, and the direction of the cycle remains to be further observed.
6) In the second quarter, continue to be optimistic about the stock market, convertible bonds and payable bonds. The short-term adjustment pressure of the bond market has further increased, but adjustment is an opportunity for allocation. In the second half and mid-term, the bond market will be long and slow.
The structure affects the pace
1) The pace of credit supply in the first quarter is still fast. In March, 1.69 trillion yuan of new renminbi credit was added, far exceeding expectations. In terms of credit structure, the corporate sector is still the main force, and the residential sector rebounded from February, showing obvious short-term trends. In terms of trends, the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans by enterprises and residents has stabilized moderately, while bills and short-term loans have grown rapidly, which may indicate that banks are still cautious about entities despite credit impulse. Non-standard social financing stopped falling and rebounded, special bonds accelerated, and net corporate debt financing was improving (city investment is the main force). In March, the new social financing stock rebounded to 10.7% year-on-year.
2) Monetary policy is hard to say, but the pace of monetary easing and credit supply may change in the future. Since April, the central bank has suspended open market operations, large MLF will expire, and the tax payment will be over a long month, and market liquidity will face certain pressure. Financial data exceeds expectations or reduces the need for a RRR cut in April, and it is more likely to be changed to a slightly higher cost and shorter period of operation. Given that the sharp rebound in credit is mainly due to the significant growth of bills and short-term loans, it is not ruled out that relevant measures may be marginally tightened and the pace of credit distribution may be adjusted.
CITIC Securities macro:
The overall improvement of financial data will help the economy "low in the front and high in the back"
1) Credit The total amount and structure are better than expected, and the capital observation angle predicts that the economy will be "low before and then high" throughout the year. With the relative relaxation of housing market policies in large and medium-sized cities and the continued boom in stock market trading volume, the short-term growth of residential loans is expected to continue. At the corporate sector level, the quarter-on-quarter improvement of PMI will continue. With the double increase in capital supply and the demand for SMEs, corporate sector loans will continue to maintain a good year-on-year growth, and the real economy will continue to be as we expected. ".
2) The stabilization of social financing continues to be confirmed, and non-standard improvements and loan proportions are structural highlights. The low point of social financial growth has passed, and subsequent benefits from the continuous issuance of local special bonds, the gradual recovery of non-standard financing, and the steady growth of RMB loans under structural improvements, are expected to stabilize at 10.5. % Above the level.
3) Both M1 and M2 rebounded significantly, and the scissors gap continued to narrow. With the restoration of corporate liquidity and the improvement of corporate expectations, it is expected that the scissors gap between M1 and M2 will be further reduced, and there is still room for further upward growth in the growth rate of M1 in the second quarter.
4) The inter-bank liquidity is loose, and the fund interest rate is inverted in the short-term. As the central bank recently reduced the amount of net currency injection, the long-term inversion will be unsustainable. On the whole, the relatively loose money market funds will continue to help the credit restoration of the real economy.
5) Monetary policy is expected to remain reasonably stable in the short term. There will still be a liquidity gap in the second quarter, which may be filled by RRR cut or MLF/TMLF replacement. On the whole, the MLF expiration in June will be under greater pressure, and we still reserve the possibility of judging the RRR cut in June. However, under a reasonable and stable tone, the central bank will not rule out the use of MLF or TMLF and other tools to supplement liquidity. The continuous improvement of the financing structure will be the main theme throughout this year, and with the improvement of the structure, the channels of credit will continue to be restored, helping the real economy to stabilize and rebound.
The Monarch Macro Flower Changchun Team:
The heart is moving, the amount is flying, and there is no need to cut interest rates
Under the catalysis of the previous policy , People’s inner world has changed, expectations are improved, and the behaviors of enterprises and individuals are further guided. In the end, social financing creates a huge amount and optimizes the structure.
1) Credit data in March and the first quarter surpassed expectations, driving the total amount of social financing to exceed market expectations, and the growth rate has jumped, pointing to not weak financing demand, and the effect of wide credit is faster than expected.
2) Not only has the total amount of credit improved, but the structure has also been optimized. In terms of maturity, the year-on-year growth of medium- and long-term loans and short-term loans reached new highs, and the year-on-year growth of residential and corporate loans reached new highs in terms of sectors. This indicates that the expectations of residents and enterprises have changed, and long-term investment willingness has increased.
3) The improvement of credit is consistent with the relevant survey data. The central bank survey data shows that the loan demand index jumped in the first quarter, The BCI index shows that the corporate financing environment has improved rapidly, supporting the improvement in the willingness of enterprises and residents to invest.
4) In terms of trade, the jump in export growth is due to the low base caused by the dislocation of the Spring Festival in 18-19. What is more noteworthy is the decline in import growth.
5) There are two reasons for the decline in import growth: First, it is related to the implementation of some tariffs between China and the United States. Since the end of 2018, whether it is exports to the United States or imports from the United States has been related to the overall trade characteristics. Deviation, there has been a more significant decline. Second, it is related to the price fluctuations of imported goods. In terms of trade types, in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter of 2018, the growth rate of bulk commodity imports declined more significantly, which was the main drag on the decline in import growth. In terms of volume and price, the slowdown in price growth (crude oil) was the dominant one. factor.
Generally speaking, with the economy stabilizing and the effect of credit easing faster than expected, we believe that the central bank will not need to cut interest rates in 2019. The judgment on RRR cuts will be lowered from 3-4 times to 1-2 times. We are optimistic about risk assets such as equity, real estate, and bulk.
Team of Ren Zeping of Evergrande Research Institute:
Not flooding, but lenient credit policy is effective
1) March Economic and financial data such as PMI, finance, CPI, PPI, import and export has rebounded in an all-round way, verifying our basic judgment in the 2019 macro outlook that "the bottom of the economic year will be the bottom of the economy, and whether the market will be very late." It is expected that the short-term economy will continue to improve.
2) The social financial and credit data in March exceeded market expectations and caused great controversy in the market. Some people think it is flooded. We think it is the result of the lenient credit policy. Since March, the central bank The overall monetary policy is tightly balanced. Since January’s RRR cut, the central bank’s monetary policy easing has slowed down. In February and March, under the background of no RRR cut, the total amount of funds recovered from open market operations was 681.5 billion yuan. In February, the year-on-year growth rate of base currency supply dropped to 5 in 2016 Month since the historical low -4.62%. In addition, the central bank denied the news of the "April RRR cut", indicating that the central bank's monetary policy has stabilized.
3) From the perspective of economic growth, active destocking is gradually coming to an end, and the cycle of passive destocking is in the early stage of recovery, and the economy has gone from a downturn to bottoming out. In 2019, real estate replenishment inventory, a new cycle of manufacturing capacity, infrastructure policies, and short-term fixed asset investment are strong. The room for further relaxation of monetary policy is constrained.
4) From the perspective of inflation, the pig cycle superimposed on the African plague has promoted the recovery of CPI and the rise of oil prices. Although monetary policy will not be tightened due to structural price fluctuations, continued high prices will affect the margin of monetary policy. Easing constitutes a restriction.
5) The focus of future monetary policy is from wide currency to wide credit to serve the real economy. The macro policy should not only prevent the hedging from being delayed and inadequate, but also prevent over-strength and re-emerging the old path. The future RRR cut is more to replace MLF, stabilize bank liabilities and reduce costs. More use of reform and opening up methods to restore market confidence.
6) At the end of 2018, at the most pessimistic moment in the market, we issued a firm and optimistic voice about the prospects of China's economic reform and transformation in the medium and long term: The best investment opportunity lies in China. Bottom line, many A shares are now cheap.