[Risk Warning] The individual stocks mentioned in this report only indicate a certain relevance to related topics and do not constitute individual stock investment advice.
1. This week’s theme thinking: New energy vehicles will usher in a medium-level theme opportunity>
Recently, the theme of new energy vehicles has been catalyzed frequently. From Tesla’s landing and building plants to the acceleration of pure electric vehicles operating in various places, the policy level will cancel the restrictions on foreign ownership of special vehicles and new energy vehicles. ,Ningde Times, the first unicorn on the GEM, will also subscribe. At the industry level, models with a battery life of more than 300 kilometers will begin to increase in volume in the second half of the year. The dual points policy will directly force companies to increase the proportion of new energy vehicles from 2019, and the cruising range, charging problems and other pain points will be gradually solved , Cost reduction is conducive to popularization, and the emergence of new car-making forces to increase market competition is conducive to technological progress. Consumers’ increased demand for intelligent connectivity in automobiles and the purchase of two improved vehicles have pushed up the demand for new energy vehicles (in April, sales of new energy vehicles and passenger vehicles increased by 135.8% year-on-year). In terms of market performance, The charging pile index, the new energy vehicle index, and the lithium battery index are all at a relatively low level since 2016, and the index volatility is declining. With the frequent occurrence of recent catalytic events, With the dazzling performance of Zhongguan production and sales data and the continuous strengthening of industrial technology progress and demand logic, is expected to usher in a medium-level thematic opportunity in the new energy vehicle industry chain.
(1) Driving events: frequent catalysis
In mid-April, according to Musk’s internal mail disclosed by the media, By the end of June, the production capacity of Model 3 will reach 6,000 vehicles per week. Previously, Tesla's production target at the end of June was 5,000 vehicles per week.
On May 10, Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. obtained a business license issued by the Shanghai Pudong New Area Market Supervision Bureau.
On May 22, the governor of Hainan emphasized that Hainan should strive to take the lead in realizing clean energy for automobiles in the whole country and even in the world.
On the same day, a price adjustment document obtained by NetEase Finance from Tesla stores shows that starting from July 1 this year, Tesla’s models sold in China will be reduced in price. The range ranges from 40,000 to 90,000 yuan.
On May 23, the Shenzhen Municipal Transportation Commission stated that by the end of this year, all taxis in Shenzhen will be 100% purely electric, and 18,000 new charging piles will be added. All the added-net car-hailing vehicles are also pure electric vehicles.
On May 25, the "Regulations on Investment Management of the Automobile IndustryThe draft for solicitation of opinions was released, proposing to support state-owned auto companies and private auto companies to carry out mixed ownership reforms and join forces to form a world-class automotive enterprise group.
On May 22, the Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement on reducing import tariffs on automobiles and parts. According to the announcement, since July 1, the tax rates for 135 tax numbers with a 25% car tax rate and 4 tax numbers with a 20% tax rate will be reduced to 15%, and the tax rates for auto parts will be 8%, 10%, and 10%, respectively. The tax rate for 79 tax lines of 15%, 20%, and 25% is reduced to 6%.
In addition, in 2018, my country will abolish the restrictions on foreign shareholding in special vehicles and new energy vehicles.
On May 26, Baidu Robin Li revealed at the 2018 China International Big Data Industry Expo that Baidu's unmanned vehicles will be mass-produced in July.
On May 30th, Ningde Times, the first unicorn on the ChiNext, will subscribe for purchase. According to CATL’s net profit of 4 billion yuan in 2017, combined with an average price-earning ratio of more than 30 times in the power battery industry, CATL’s market value will reach more than 120 billion, which means that it will surpass Wen’s shares to become the company with the largest market capitalization on the ChiNext. Although it has shrunk significantly from the initial fundraising of 13.12 billion yuan, the estimated fundraising scale of more than 5 billion yuan for the CATL is still a new record for the GEM. (Daily Economic News Report)
(2) Policy bottoming: high battery life benefits, double points policy forces companies to increase the proportion of new energy vehicles
On the one hand, from the perspective of changes in the subsidy policy, before the transition period for models with a cruising range of more than 300 kilometers, the subsidy will be implemented at 0.7 times the amount of the subsidy in 2017, but after the transition period (starting on June 12), the subsidy will not decrease but increase, so Models with a battery life of more than 300 kilometers will begin to increase in volume in the second half of the year. After 2019, the continued decline of subsidies will bring about a wave of rush to install and consume.
On the other hand, according to the double points policy, although the policy will be officially implemented on April 1 this year, the new energy vehicle point ratio requirement will be set from 2019, which will directly force enterprises to implement emission management , Increase the proportion of new energy vehicles.
Finally, as the restrictions on traffic in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities and the further expansion of restricted areas and licenses in the future, new energy licenses are more policy-oriented in terms of availability and restrictions. Advantage.
(3) On the supply side: the cruising range, charging problems and other pain points are gradually solved, and the cost reduction is conducive to popularization.
In the past, there were three main types of new energy vehicles. User pain points: short cruising range, high price, and troublesome charging. With the gradual advancement of technology, domestic representative new energy vehicles are at the same level as foreign mainstream brands in terms of cruising range. In terms of price, domestic subsidized ones The price advantage is relatively large, and the problems of short cruising range and high price of new energy vehicles have been gradually solved. In addition, in addition to traditional car manufacturers such as SAIC, Chery, JAC, etc., which continue to increase their new energy vehicles, new car manufacturers that have emerged since 2017, such as Weimar, Weilai, Byton, Xiaopeng, etc., will also gradually increase the number of models. The gradual strengthening of market competition is conducive to technological progress and the reduction of industrial chain costs.
From the perspective of the convenience of charging, as of Q3 2017, the number of charging piles in my country is close to 200,000 , The number of electric vehicles is 1.5 million, and the pile to pile ratio is generally flat at about 8. Compared with the pile to pile ratio of 9.4 and 11.7 in 2014 and 2015, the pile to pile ratio has been greatly improved, and the charging problem of new energy vehicle users is also Solve gradually. On May 21, the State Grid Corporation of China issued the second batch of charging pile bidding this year (the third material bidding for the power supply project in 2018). The total number of charging piles in this bidding is 2015, and the total power is 144,100 kilowatts. It remained flat in 2017, and the construction of charging piles entered a stable period.
(4) Demand side: Consumers have increased their requirements for automotive intelligent networking and two improved car purchases Increase the demand for new energy vehicles
New energy vehicles are mostly the second improvement car in the family. As consumers’ The vast majority of new energy vehicles use intelligent connectivity as a standard configuration, which has also increased consumer demand for car purchases.According to some information, the sales of new energy vehicles and passenger vehicles in April were 72,000 units, an increase of 135.8% year-on-year and an increase of 17.07% month-on-month; sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 10,000 units, with year-on-year growth and a month-on-month growth rate of 158.4, respectively. % And 57.1%, the growth momentum is strong. In April, the sales structure of new energy passenger vehicles changed significantly. The proportion of A00-class vehicles fell from 68% in March to 52%; the proportion of A0-class vehicles exceeded the 10,000 mark for the first time, rising to 19%; A The proportion of class cars has also steadily increased from 12% at the beginning of the year to 28%. China Merchants Automobile believes that with the launch of new A0-class and A-class cars, the impulse market in the second quarter is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the third quarter, and a smooth transition will be achieved throughout the year.
(5) Market performance: Several major indexes related to new energy vehicles are in relative relative terms since 2016. Low, optimistic about medium-level thematic opportunities
In terms of market performance, the charging pile index, new energy vehicle index, and lithium battery index are all at relatively low levels since 2016, and the index volatility With the continuous decline, with the frequent occurrence of recent catalytic events, the brilliant performance of Zhongguan production and sales data, and the continuous strengthening of industrial technology progress and demand logic, it is expected that the new energy vehicle industry chain will usher in medium-level thematic opportunities.
(6) New energy automobile industry chain related stocks
2. This week’s important theme event tracking
(1) Ningde era IPO approved
On May 18, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the IPO approval documents of the two companies, and the total amount of funds raised did not exceed 6 billion yuan. The power battery unicorn Ningde era is listed. The market expects Ningde Times to raise more than 5 billion yuan in this IPO. Based on the company's net profit of 3.972 billion yuan last year, as long as Ningde Times' P/E ratio reaches 32 times, it will surpass Wen's shares and become the No. 1 in the GEM market. (Snowball)
Brief comment: The replacement risk in the foreseeable time is small, and you can pay attention to the upstream listed companies related to lithium and cobalt.
Related topics: Lithium battery.
Related stocks:Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, etc.
(2) The world’s first industry IPv6 root server goes live in Hangzhou
Event: span>The world's first industry IPv6 root server "Radio and TV root + Wasu root" was launched on the 21st at the "2018 Global Next Generation Internet Summit" held in Hangzhou. The IPv6 root server system is oriented to the broadcasting and television network, and is jointly constructed and operated by the National Engineering Center of Next Generation Internet and Wasu Group. It will further promote the development and industrial upgrading of the broadcasting and television industry. (Xinhua News Agency)
Brief comment: my country released the Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Deployment of Internet Protocol Version 6 (IPv6) in 2017 According to the plan, the IPv6 root server system will be vertically developed in energy, finance, logistics and other fields in the next step. With the successive launch of IPv6 root servers, we will focus on listed companies related to software and hardware equipment.
Related stocks:Dongtu Technology, Fiberhome Communications, ZTE, etc.
(3) The first batch of buses is about to open to traffic on the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao BridgeTaxi will operate next month
Event: Recently, the first delivery ceremony of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge shuttle bus took place in Hong Kong Held, the first batch of 25 Scania Higer luxury buses are ready for departure. The buses are tailor-made and specially developed and designed for the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge. Higer Bus became the only domestic bus manufacturer that provides bus connection services for the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge. A total of 120 buses won the bid will be delivered one after another and will be put into operation in mid-to-late June. (Financial sector)
Brief comment: The Bay Area economy has an open economic structure, efficient resource allocation capabilities, powerful agglomeration spillover functions, and development International network of contacts. Hong Kong and Macao play a pivotal role for my country's 21st Century Maritime Silk Road to move towards the world. The continuous promotion of policies will bring investment opportunities for related companies.
Related topics:Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
Related stocks:Zhuhai Port, Shirong Zhaoye, etc.
(4) Pearl River Delta cities will fully launch 5G network large-scale deployment in 2020
Event: Guangdong will focus on promoting the construction of a new generation of information infrastructure in three years. It is required that the Pearl River Delta cities will fully launch 5G by the end of 2020 Large-scale network deployment. The three-year action plan is clear. Guangdong takes the construction of new-generation information infrastructure such as high-speed optical network, 4/5G network, mobile Internet of Things (NB-iot), and Internet Protocol Version 6 (IPv6) as key tasks to promote the construction of a strong network province . (Xinhua News Agency)
Brief comment:5G is still the most determined theme in 2018 or even 2019, and it is currently in the era of the Internet of Everything , The number of connections and data continue to explode, and application scenarios such as VR/AR and driverless driving are constantly enriched. Only 5G technology can support the application scale of the Internet of Things exceeding trillions in terms of reliability, speed and delay requirements. It has driven an industry scale of more than ten trillion yuan. Recently, the application of giants has accelerated, and commercial applications have been approaching.
Related stocks: ZTE Communications, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Zhongtian Technology, etc.
(5) Gene "Magic Scissors" successfully inactivated HIV genes
Event: Kobe University recently announced that a research team led by Associate Professor Masanori Kameoka has developed an effective method using genetic "magic scissors" CRISPR/Cas9 editing technology It can destroy the regulatory genes of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus type 1, HIV-1) and successfully inhibit the proliferation of HIV-1 in infected cells. (Technology Daily)
Brief comment: China has issued very intensive policies in the field of precision medicine in recent years. The National Guidelines for Precision Medicine also put forward key directions such as "queues, big data, biomarkers, precision prevention, and precision treatment". "Magic Scissors" has become an upstart in life medicine, and clinical treatments are expected to achieve significant development; it is recommended to pay attention to listed companies in the "Gene Scissors" precision medicine market.
Related topics:Precision Medicine
Related stocks: Anke Biology, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, BGI, etc.
(6) Baidu launches driverless road test Baidu driverless car will be mass-produced in July
According to information provided by Baidu, starting from May 14th, Baidu has carried out a fully automated unmanned road test in Xiong'an New District. It is reported that three L4-level autonomous vehicles of Baidu's Apollo open platform have launched real road tests day and night in the Xiong'an Citizen Service Center Park. (Tencent.com)
Li Yanhong, Chairman and CEO of Baidu, revealed at the 2018 China International Big Data Industry Expo that Baidu's unmanned vehicles will be mass-produced in July, but he is always worried about whether autonomous driving is enough Safety. He believes that safety is the "first day" for the development of autonomous driving technology, and any accident may cause the autonomous driving technology to stagnate for one to two years. (Sina)
Brief comment:Automotive electrification, intelligence, and connectivity are the core driving forces for future changes in the automotive industry, and at the national level A series of actions by the company have fully confirmed the importance of the construction of intelligent networked vehicles, and the industry is expected to usher in accelerated development in the next few years. Based on the optimistic outlook of the driverless industry, more and more technology giants have increased their deployment in this market and made significant progress, such as Baidu, Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Tencent. With the promotion of policies, funds and technology, the development of the auto-driving industry is accelerating.
Related topics:Unmanned driving, Internet of Vehicles
Related stocks: Joyson Electronics, NavInfo, Qiming Information, SAIC, etc.
(7) China’s first heavy ion cancer treatment system enters clinical trials
Event: It was learned from the Wuwei Heavy Ion Therapy Center in Gansu Province on May 26 that China’s first heavy ion with independent intellectual property rights The cancer treatment system has officially entered the clinical trial stage, which marks a crucial step for China's heavy ion treatment system on the road of registration and industrialization. (Xinhua News Agency)
Brief comment: China has issued very intensive policies in the field of precision medicine in recent years. The National Guidelines for Precision Medicine also put forward key directions such as "queues, big data, biomarkers, precision prevention, and precision treatment". The clinical trials of heavy ion therapy indicate that my country's heavy ion therapy has gradually entered the road of industrialization, breaking foreign monopolies, helping to enhance its international position in the field of radiation therapy oncology, and accelerating the advancement of precision medicine.
Related topics:Precision Medicine
Related stocks: Anke Biology, Hengrui Medicine, BGI, etc.
(8) Successful take-off and landing of the carrier-based aircraft of China’s aircraft carrier at night
Event: On May 24, China Central Television announced in its program that the carrier-based aircraft of China’s aircraft carrier broke through the technology of taking off and landing at night. Aircraft carrier expert Li Jie said that this means that the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning fleet initially has the ability to form all-weather operations, and has taken a crucial step towards the formation of actual combat capabilities. This has also made China one of the few countries in the world that has mastered the night take-off and landing technology of carrier-based aircraft pilots. (Global Times)
Brief comment: Under the country’s strategic goal of building a maritime power, it is expected that the demand for naval equipment will continue to maintain rapid growth. With the gradual development of aircraft carrier battle group construction, it will further open up huge market space.
Related topics:Military industry, aircraft carrier
Related stocks:AVIC Electromechanical, AVIC Optoelectronics, etc.
(9) Two national manufacturing innovation centers for integrated circuits and smart sensors have been demonstrated.
Event:On May 23, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized an expert demonstration meeting for the construction of the National Integrated Circuit and Smart Sensor Innovation Center in Shanghai. Argument. Luo Wen, the vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, requested that the industry-oriented key common technology research and development should be carried out; the construction of industrial innovation alliances should be established to form an "enterprise + alliance" model; (People’s Post and Telegraph)
Brief comment:Currently, the development of China’s integrated circuit industry has reached a new stage. The development of the industry chain is gradually improving, but some links Still weak, and the self-sufficiency rate is still low. With the continuous development of smart devices, artificial intelligence, automotive electronics and other fields, it will continue to promote the development of China's semiconductor industry. The establishment of the second phase of the large fund will help the development of the domestic semiconductor equipment industry .
Related topics: Semiconductors, integrated circuits, sensors
Related stocks: North Huachuang, Changjiang Electronics Technology, etc.
(10) Government procurement force domestic chips, Loongson, Feiteng, Shenwei entered the procurement Directory
Event: On May 17, the Central Government Procurement Network released the "2018-2019 Central State Organs Information Products (Hardware) and Air Conditioning Product Agreement Supply Procurement Project Solicitation Announcement", the server product procurement category announced this year has undergone a major adjustment: on the basis of the original server and other categories, the "domestic chip server" has been added. New categories include Loongson CPU server, Feiteng CPU server and Shenwei CPU server. (Global Times)
Brief comment:Currently, the development of China's integrated circuit industry has reached a new stage. The development of the industry chain is gradually improving, but some links are still Weak and the self-sufficiency rate is still low. With the continuous development of smart devices, artificial intelligence, automotive electronics and other fields, it will continue to promote the development of China's semiconductor industry. The establishment of the second phase of the large fund will help the development of the domestic semiconductor equipment industry.
Related topics:Semiconductors, integrated circuits, sensors
Related stocks: North Huachuang, Changjiang Electronics Technology, etc.
(11) Successful operation test of my country's new maglev train
Event: The operation test of the prototype of a new type of maglev train led by the National University of Defense Technology has been successful, and the speed can reach more than 160 kilometers per hour. Relevant experts pointed out that the success of this operation test is a phased achievement of the national "13th Five-Year Plan" advanced rail transit key special subject. It indicates that my country has mastered the core and key technologies of medium-speed maglev transportation, which is important for promoting the development of my country's maglev transportation technology. Very important meaning. (Liberation Army Daily)
Brief comment: The successful operation test of the new maglev train signifies that I have mastered the key technology of maglev transportation and broke Foreign monopoly and the realization of domestic autonomy are of great significance to the promotion of my country's transportation industry. Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, high-quality development has been repeatedly emphasized. Vigorously cultivate new kinetic energy, strengthen technological innovation, promote the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, and cultivate a group of pioneering enterprises with innovative capabilities. Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has repeatedly emphasized its efforts to increase its support for new technologies, new industries, new business formats, and new models (referred to as the "four new economies"). Related fields are expected to usher in continuous policy packages.
Related topics:Smart manufacturing
Related stocks: CRRC, etc.
(12) China may plan to reduce tariffs on consumer goods, and cross-border e-commerce will welcome benefits again
Event: According to people familiar with the matter, China plans to reduce tariffs on consumer goods, which will be formally implemented on July 1. The industries that will be affected include food, medicine, health care products, and cosmetics. With the reduction of tariffs on some products, it will stimulate consumer demand in second, third, and fourth-tier cities, which in turn will promote the overall development of domestic cross-border e-commerce and warehousing and logistics industries. (Securities Times)
Brief comment: At present, the domestic consumer market for imported goods is mainly concentrated in the first-tier cities, while the two, three, four Tier cities consume imported goods more through cross-border e-commerce. With the reduction of tariffs on some products and consumption upgrades brought about by rising incomes of residents, consumption demand for imported goods will be stimulated. It is recommended to pay attention to cross-border e-commerce and warehousing and logistics related stocks.
Related topics: Cross-border e-commerce
Related stocks ：Cross-Border Link, Oriental Jiasheng, China Central Place Logistics, Changlian Stock, etc.
*Note: The stocks here are not recommended for listing only. For specific stock recommendations, please use Research on various industries for investment promotion shall prevail.
3. Continue to focus on the theme: independent innovation and the main line of data dividends
Maintain annual excess returns on related topics such as independence and data dividends Judging, related topics include integrated circuits, big data, quantum computing/communication, military industry, innovative drugs, precision medicine, OLED, 5G, industrial Internet, and artificial intelligence. The specific logic can be found in the previous report.
4. Investment research: industry theme clusters of heroes
(1) Investment communication: 3GPP meeting established the first version of 5G Standards; China International Big Data Expo Guiyang Guiyang Expo opened, "digital everything, intelligence is merging"
Related topics: big data, 5G
Last week, the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 2.22%, and the communications industry (Shenwan) rose by 0.01%. Among the 28 sub-sectors at the first level of Shenwan, the communications sector ranked sixth in growth this week. Year-to-date, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has fallen by 5.32%, and the communications sector has fallen by 8.46%. According to the latest closing price on May 25, the dynamic PE of the communications sector is 40.87 times. Key recommendations: Aerospace Development, Gosuncn, Tianyuan Dike, Sinnet, Meteno, Dongtu Technology, etc.
1. This week’s core views & recommended targets:
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the latest operating data of the communications industry. The gap in operator volume continued to expand, traffic continued to grow at a high rate, and information infrastructure benefited from it; this week 3GPP held in South Korea to focus on the content of the RAN working group The 5G standard is about to come out, and the commercialization is steadily advancing; in addition, the acquisition of high-quality target Huakun Daowei, the company will expand to the vertical application of machine learning and artificial intelligence in the future, and the scarcity is strong. Key recommendations: [Aerospace Development], [Gosuncn], [Tianyuan Dicco], [Sinonews], [Metaino], [Dongtu Technology]; Suggested attention: [Fiberhome Communications], [Zhongjixu Innovative], [Acceptance Technology], [Hengtong Optoelectronics], [Xingwang Ruijie], [Yalink Networks], [Kingsignuo], [Hager Communications], etc.
2. The first version of the 5G standard is about to come out, and 5G commercialization is approaching.
This week’s 3GPP working conference in South Korea will mainly focus on the content of the RAN working group to determine the final 5G commercial technology. This conference will complete the 5G independent group The determination of network standards. Judging from the past 5G standard formulation process, 5G commercialization is advancing steadily. The non-independent networking standard has been determined last year. It is expected that the 5G independent networking (S) will be completed in June this year.A) The formulation of standards, the formal freezing of standards will be completed in September. After the establishment of the 5G standard this time, equipment vendors will advance the equipment research and development process around the standard, and 5G commercialization is approaching.
3. The 2018 China International Big Data Industry Expo opened in Guiyang, "Digital everything, intelligence is merging".
The China International Big Data Conference was founded in 2016. After three years of development, it has become the most influential big data industry summit in China. With the theme of "Digital Everything, Wisdom Is Converging", the conference will hold the Big Data and Digital Economy Summit, Big Data and Artificial Intelligence Forum, and Big Data and Internet of Things Forum during the conference. As President Xi mentioned in the congratulatory letter of this conference, the current new generation of information technology represented by the Internet, big data, and artificial intelligence is changing with each passing day, bringing major and far-reaching changes to the country’s economic development. Data drives the transformation of traditional industries. It is recommended to focus on [Tianyuan Dike], [Gosuncn], etc.
4. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the latest operating data of the communications industry. The continued rapid growth of traffic has brought demand for information infrastructure.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently announced the operation data of the telecommunications industry. In terms of the use of telecommunications services, the average mobile Internet access traffic per household has continued to increase at a high rate. Since the beginning of this year, the State Council has continued to promote the telecommunications industry to speed up and reduce fees, which has stimulated consumer traffic consumption to a certain extent. In addition, the innovation of Internet content presentation methods represented by short videos has also greatly promoted the growth of traffic. According to Cisco’s latest traffic analysis report, global IP traffic will reach 278,108 PB/month by 2021, nearly three times the amount in 2016. Information infrastructure provides the basis for traffic carrying. The future evolution of network architecture will highlight the status of data centers, and information infrastructure will benefit from it.
Risk warning: Sino-US trade frictions have intensified; traffic growth is not as expected; 5G progress is not as expected.
(2) China Merchants Computer: INTEL First AI Developer Conference held
Related topics: network security, cloud computing
Keywords of this week: Intel's first AI developer conference. On May 23, Intel’s first AI Developer Conference (AIDC 2018) was held at the San Francisco Art Palace. Intel solemnly introduced Intel's new cloud AI chip NNP "SpringCrest" to the attendees, and demonstrated the tools, ecosystems and other systemic platforms it provides for developers.
§ The computer sector index fell 1.03% this week. The current TTM PE of the computer sector is about 51 times, the sector differentiation is becoming more prominent, and a new wave of technology with cloud computing and artificial intelligence as its representative technologies has arrived. Based on past business and technology accumulation, leading companies in various segments of the A-share computer sector are expected to demonstrate growth beyond the industry through the accumulation of past business and technology. We are optimistic about the investment opportunities of leading segmented companies.
§ On May 23, Intel’s first AI Developer Conference (AIDC 2018) was held at the San Francisco Art Palace. At this conference, Naveen Rao, vice president of Intel and head of AI Business Unit (AIPG), introduced Intel’s new cloud AI chip NNP "SpringCrest" to the attendees, and launched three major software at the same time Tools: nGRAPH platform, BigDL big data open source platform, OpenVINO open source software tool. We believe that: Following the Google I/O Developer Conference on May 9th, all the content will be focused on AI. The first AI Developer Conference held by Intel this time also shows that the global technology giants have adopted AI as a company development. Core strategy.
§ SpringCrest benchmarks GOOGLE TPU3. Nervana NNP series chips are Intel’sThe neural network chip developed in the energy field is mainly for deep learning. The application scenario is in a large data center, not a personal computer. In 2017, Intel showed the design architecture of this Nervana deep learning chip NNP, the project code is Lake Crest. The Spring Crest released this time is somewhat similar to the third-generation Google TPU. Spring Crest products have also been tried out by more partners besides Facebook, and will be open to users in the second half of 2019.
§ Artificial intelligence, the strong will always be strong. In November 2017, the Ministry of Science and Technology held the "New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan" and the launch of major technology projects: Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and iFlytek became my country’s four major AI open innovation platforms. Whether from the domestic AI leader BAT+ iFLYTEK, or the overseas AI leader Google, Microsoft, Apple, etc., we have seen the competitive advantages of AI leader companies become more prominent, reflecting stronger growth in the AI wave.
§ "AI + cloud" is coming, the strong one is Hengqiang: a new wave of technology with cloud computing and artificial intelligence as the representative technology has arrived, and the technology leader is expected to rely on business The brought data resources, huge capital accumulation, and the best talent pool have achieved more prominent competitive advantages in the intelligent era with data as the core. We are strongly optimistic that leading companies in each segment of the A-share computer sector can demonstrate their growth beyond the industry through the intelligent upgrade of products and services based on the accumulation of past business and technology.
Risk warning: policy support is lower than expected; the development of core technology has encountered bottlenecks.
(3) China Merchants Computer: Giants compete, marching towards the era of cloud computing dividends-Tencent Cloud price cut comments
Related topics: Cloud computing
Tencent Cloud has drastically cut prices to compete for the cloud computing market, reflecting the huge market capacity, and the price is expected to be further reduced to release resource dividends, and also lay the foundation for the development of SaaS. Cloud computing is the engine of intelligence, accelerating the arrival of the AI era.
1. Event: 2018 Tencent "Cloud + Future" Summit was held in Guangzhou, Tencent Cloud announced a new round of price cuts for core products, including CVM Many products have reduced prices, including AMD standard instances by 30%, GPU models with NVIDIA P40 cards, GN8, reduced prices by 20% in the southwest region, and offline computer models tailored for batch computing by 50%. At the same time, the CDN official website also cut prices across the board, with a maximum reduction of 20%. The price of all database products in the southwest region (Chengdu, Chongqing) was reduced by 30%, and the price of COS storage in the southwest region (Chengdu, Chongqing) was reduced by 24%, which was 33% lower than the industry average price. The lowest price in the world. In addition, Tencent Cloud also announced that dozens of AI application services will be freely accessible.
2. Giants compete to release IaaS dividends and promote the full outbreak of SaaS in the second half.
At a time when many investors were hesitating about Tencent's growth, Tencent Cloud slashed prices and entered the cloud computing infrastructure market. With its strong scale effect, Alibaba Cloud continues to cut prices without blocking triple-digit revenue growth, while losses continue to narrow. In IaaS, a market with deep capital barriers, the competition of giants reflects one aspect of the competition. The huge space capacity of cloud computing and the scale effect still have a lot of room to be released. We expect that the price is expected to be further reduced to release more IaaS dividends; On the other hand, each round of technology cycle is divided into upper In the second half, the IaaS layer fully exploded. After the giants broke the barriers to resource acquisition and lowered the barriers to innovation, the IT expenditures saved by enterprises will enable more investment in innovative software services and applications. The SaaS curtain will open and the market will be several times larger. For IaaS.
3. Cloud computing will be the "heart" of the intelligent age.
Tencent hopes to build on cloudBuild "Internet of People", "Internet of Things" and "Intelligent Internet", break information islands, master lower-level cutting-edge technologies to deepen the connection between the physical world and the digital world, and then work with partners to build an intelligent Internet to help all walks of life and government Build your own super brain. Alibaba Cloud's Yunqi Conference this year also focused on the Internet of Things as an important theme. If AI is compared to the "brain" in the age of intelligence, then cloud computing will be the "heart", big data is the "blood" that runs through the body, and the Internet of Things is the "nervous system" throughout the body ",Cloud computing is an important foundation and engine of intelligence, and the future has come.
4. Investment advice:
The cloud computing IaaS layer has a super scale effect, and the competition of giants releases resource dividends To accelerate the full arrival of the cloud era, infrastructure in the first half will vigorously promote the development of application services in the second half, and SaaS ushered in a golden period of development. We believe that companies with public cloud capabilities have stronger growth capabilities and more long-term sustainability. Key recommendations: UFIDA, Kingdee International (Hong Kong stocks), Glodon, and WeChat.
Risk warning: technology backward risk; cloud computing progress is not up to expectations.
(4) China Merchants Computer: Hang Seng Electronics (600570.SH) looks at Hang Seng’s product innovation with three waves of financial technology
Related topics: Fintech
The smart wave will be the theme of the next phase of financial technology. Looking at the product innovation of Hang Seng from the three waves of financial technology, the company Always at the forefront of the market. Vigorous innovation and high R&D investment are expected to help the company win the next era and become the biggest winner in the third wave. Continue to highly recommend!
1. The three waves of financial technology, the wave of intelligence will be the theme of the next stage:
Since 1990 Since the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, China's financial market has gone through nearly 30 years. The development of financial IT that matches it can be summarized into three stages: digitalization, networking, and intelligence. We are currently experiencing the heyday of the networked wave, and the theme of the next stage will be the "intelligence" wave led by new technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data, and blockchain.
2. Look at the product innovation of Hang Seng from the three waves of financial technology:
Products from Hang Seng in the past 10 years It can be seen from the R&D context that for every wave of financial technology, the company has been at the forefront of the market through a forward-looking layout. From the high-performance trading system and SEE operation and maintenance tools in the first wave of digitization, to the mobile application platform Light in the second wave of networking, to the Hang Seng "Seven Clouds", which represents the future wave of intelligence, and artificial intelligence Platform iBrain, etc. We believe that with the gradual transition of financial technology from the networked wave to the intelligent wave, companies that really dare to invest in innovation and are always at the forefront will become the biggest winners in the third wave, and the company has innovated in artificial intelligence and cloud computing in recent years. The vigorous deployment in the field is the trend of the next wave of financial technology, and the company's early accumulation is expected to gradually usher in gains.
3. Vigorously innovate and high R&D investment to help decisively win the next era:
The company has been in the 2.0 financial cloud business in recent years With vigorous deployment, the revenue of its innovative subsidiaries has grown rapidly; at the same time, the company released 8 artificial intelligence products in 2017, and led the completion of the blockchain-based private equity system prototype verification system and the release of the FTCU Fantai Chain; the company announced in 2018 Open the technology platform to the outside world and build the artificial intelligence platform iBrain. The company's annual R&D expenditures account for almost 40% of its operating income, which is much higher than the industry average. In 2017, R&D investment expenses totaled 1.29 billion yuan, accounting for 48% of operating income, and the company’s R&D expenditures have always been directly included in the current profit and loss without capitalization. Therefore, we believe that the true value of the company has not yet been released, and the R&D investment which is much higher than the industry average will be the company’s third placeBuild a deeper moat in the wave of wave intelligence.
4. Maintain the "strongly recommended-A" rating:
Consider the company’s lead With its industry position and the potential for innovative business, we expect the net profit for 2018-19 to be 540/700 million yuan, and maintain the “strongly recommended-A” investment rating.
Risk warning: 1. Uncertainty brought about by regulatory policies; 2. Market boom continues to be sluggish
(5) Investment promotion computer: Huayu Software (300271.SZ) will add code legal AI
Related topics: AI, big data
Huayu Software released a fixed increase plan. The non-public raised funds will not exceed 1.055 billion, of which 551 million will be used for the construction of the legal AI platform, 316 million will be used to supplement working capital, and 206 million will be used for other projects. Arima's legal inspection AI application has been implemented to enhance the company's profitability. Education, Food and Drug Administration, and safety businesses are in full bloom. Maintain the "strongly recommended-A" rating.
Huayu Software released a non-public offering of funds to raise funds, and the funds raised did not exceed 1.055 billion. Among them, 551 million will be used for the construction of legal AI platform, 316 million will be used to supplement working capital, 156 million will be invested in safe and reliable software adaptation research and development and integration testing center, and 50 million will be invested in smart market supervision platform.
2. Heavy money to increase legal AI:
Huayu's new-generation legal AI platform integrates artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing Such technologies can provide the company with the IT infrastructure environment of the industry's informatization artificial intelligence capability support and proprietary cloud resource pool for the company's intelligent applications at the three levels of the government, the enterprise and the individual. Clients will gradually expand from courts, procuratorates, judicial administration, disciplinary inspection and supervision, political and law commissions and other legal agencies to the level of enterprises and individuals, providing intelligent legal services for law firms and related enterprises, lawyers and other members of the public. We believe that based on the accumulation of technology, talent and data in the legal information industry, Arima Software integrates AI technology into business processes to further enhance product competitiveness and profitability.
3. Consolidate safe and reliable business:
The raised funds of 156 million are invested in R&D and integration of safe and reliable software adaptation test Center. The company will productize the technology and industry experience it has accumulated in the field of party and government office. Based on a safe and reliable software and hardware support platform, through adaptive research and development, the company will form a complete party and government office application software and application support that meet the requirements of safety and reliability. The platform and basic support platform are based on the above products and provide customers with customized software development services based on their actual business needs.
4. Deploy a smart supervision platform:
The new round of organizational The General Administration of Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine and the State Food and Drug Administration merge to form the State Administration for Market Supervision. The company's related products are integrated to provide a smart market supervision platform based on big data and artificial intelligence, and enable it to have a comprehensive intelligent analysis service capability.
5. Maintain the "strongly recommended-A" rating:
This fixed increase will help the company’s business to accelerate its development in an all-round way , We expect the company's net profit in 2018-2020 to be 521 million, 684 million, 888 million, and the company's market value of 13.3 billion, corresponding to 26x, 19x, and 15x, and maintain the "strongly recommended-A" rating.
Risk warning: 1) M&A companies are not up to expectations; 2) The government information industry's prosperity is lower than expected.
(6) China Merchants Electronics: Behind the price increase, analyze the supply and demand structure of the silicon wafer market
related topic:Satellite navigation, intelligent manufacturing
Silicon wafers are the most important upstream raw materials for fabs, and their supply and demand and price trends can fully reflect the prosperity of the semiconductor industry. Entering 2018, the growth rate of the global semiconductor industry has slowed down month-on-month, but the wave of price increases for silicon wafers continues. Whether the downstream demand is fierce or the upstream supply is limited, this issue is worthy of in-depth study. This article refers to the original data provided by SUMCO, TSMC and other companies, and analyzes multiple core issues such as the supply side, demand side and price side of silicon wafers as follows for your reference.
1. Demand side: Predict 12-inch silicon wafer demand through purchasing power parity GDP model:
By going back to history, We found that since 2000, the two major data of 12-inch silicon wafer shipments and the purchasing power parity GDP of the year are highly matched. The coefficient of goodness of fit (R2) is as high as 0.9528. Reflects a strong degree of relevance. Therefore, in the silicon wafer industry, the purchasing power parity GDP model is usually used to judge the market demand for 12-inch silicon wafers. Through the model, we can deduce that from 2017 to 2022, the compound growth rate of demand for 12-inch silicon wafers is 4.3%. Among them, the compound growth rate of 3D NAND demand for silicon wafers is 16.76%, which will become the main driving force for the growth of demand for 12-inch silicon wafers in the next three years.
2. Supply side: After a decade of overcapacity, the 12-inch wafer factory is cautious in expanding production.
Since 2007, global silicon wafer factories have expanded their 12-inch wafer production capacity on a large scale, but the capacity utilization rate has been severely insufficient, which has caused the price of silicon wafers to continue to fall. SUMCO's gross profit fell to -25.5% at one time, and it had to close the factory to lay off employees and survive with a broken arm. In 2016, driven by the explosive demand for memory, the price of silicon wafers began to rise all the way. However, after the past round of the Great Depression, various manufacturers have been more cautious in expanding production. The current compound growth rate (5.7%) of capacity expansion planned by global silicon wafer factories lies between the purchasing power parity GDP model (4.3%) and customer demand guidelines (9.7%). It can be seen that the current silicon wafer factories are relatively conservative, and are more inclined to control capacity expansion, promote price increases, and raise profit levels.
3. Price side: 12-inch silicon wafers continue to increase in price, and related fabs have no price increase plans for the time being:
SUMCO predicts that the price of 12-inch silicon wafers will increase by 20% in 2018. More fabs have already started long-term price negotiation negotiations in 2021. But for 12-inch wafer fabs, its wafer cost is relatively low, and the market for mature processes above 28nm is fiercely competitive. In order to maintain a stable capacity utilization rate, avoid high depreciation affecting gross profit. Major factories have no plans to raise prices downstream. At the same time, in order to better observe the supply and demand structure of 12-inch silicon wafers, we have introduced a fab stock purchase ratio indicator. At present, the average inventory of 12-inch wafer fabs is maintained at about 65% of the current month’s purchases. If there is a significant upward or downward breakthrough, it means a change in the balance of supply and demand.
4. 8-inch supply and demand analysis: automotive electronics dominate the demand for 8-inch silicon wafers, and fabs transfer cost pressure through price increases:
Since 2016, the driving force of the 8-inch cable has mainly been fingerprint recognition. In 2018, with the rise of applications such as automotive electronics IOT, the supply and demand relationship of the 8-inch cable is still tight. However, we will continue to observe the impact of the decline in fingerprint recognition applications in the future. The current price of 8-inch silicon wafers has reached US$40, an increase of 19.7% compared to the beginning of 2016. For wafer fabs, since most 8-inch fabs have been depreciated, the cost of wafer is relatively high, generally between 10-15%. The increase in the price of silicon wafers has a significant impact on the cost. Taking Hua Hong as the main example, the price increase of silicon wafers has a significant impact on costs. Taking Hua Hong as the main example, the price increase of silicon wafers has a significant impact on costs. Some of the fabs represented by Hua Hong have shifted cost pressure downward through price increases, and gross profit is currently relatively stable.
5. Sorting out domestic industry chain targets:
Silicon wafer manufacturer: Shanghai Xinsheng ( Shanghai Xinyang (300236.SZ) has a 24.36% stake in the large silicon wafer project has realized the mass supply of the baffle, and the positive film has also been sold in small batches.The former production capacity is 4-5 million pieces/month, and the production capacity is expected to reach 100,000 pieces/month in 2018; Zhonghuan (002129.SZ) on October 13, 2017 Signed the "Strategic Cooperation Agreement" with Wuxi City to jointly build a large silicon wafer production and manufacturing project for integrated circuits in Yixing City. The total investment of the project is about 3 billion US dollars, and the first phase investment is about 1.5 billion US dollars; the development of the 12-inch silicon wafer of Chongqing Super Silicon is also progressing smoothly. At the same time, the SOI production line of Shanghai Xinao under the Silicon Industry Group is a highlight of China’s silicon wafer industry; other manufacturers, If you have researched semiconductors , Ningxia Yinhe, Jin Ruihong, Hejing Zhengzhou, Yisweixi’an, Jiangsu GCL, etc. are also recommended to pay attention.
Equipment manufacturer: Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316.SZ) Signed the Strategic Cooperation Agreement with Zhonghuan and Wuxi on October 13, 2017 ". At present, Jingsheng Electromechanical can provide downstream customers with a complete set of solutions for silicon wafer production such as crystal growth, barrel grinding, cutting, and polishing. The company's main customers in the field of semiconductor wafers include companies such as Agri Semiconductor, Taiwan Hejing, Zhonghuan, and Jin Ruihong.
In terms of fabs and IDM: Since 12-inch fabs face fierce price competition and there is no incentive to increase prices, we recommend paying more attention 8-inch wafer fab Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK), the company adjusted prices for some customers in the second half of 2017, benefiting from this, the company’s Q3 2017 gross profit increased To a historical high of 35.24%, but since there has been no recent price increase and the price of silicon chips has continued to rise, the gross profit margin has fallen back to 31.9%. It is expected that the company will have some price adjustments at the end of Q2. In addition, in the domestic IDM factory, Silan Micro (600460.SH)’s 8-inch line also benefited The demand for power semiconductors and the price transmission of upstream silicon wafers. Among non-listed fabs, it is recommended to pay attention to China Resources Shanghai.
Risk warning: The continuous shortage of silicon wafers affects the capacity utilization rate of fabs, and the progress of imported substitution of domestic silicon wafers is not as expected.
(7) Merchants and military industry: The combat capability of the Liaoning ship system has been initially formed, and my country’s high-end DSP development has achieved another breakthrough
Related topics: aircraft carriers, localization of chips
The CITIC National Defense Industry Index fell 1.16% this week. The report reviewed industry information and key announcements this week, and maintained its investment rating on the industry. recommend". It is recommended to pay attention to the target AVIC Electromechanical, AVIC Shenfei, AVIC Science and Industry, Zhongzhi Co., Ltd., AVIC Aircraft, China Dynamics, Aerospace Power, Aerospace Electronics and Highlander.
1. Since the beginning of 2018, the National Defense Industry (CITIC) Index has fallen cumulatively 6.08%, underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 0.76 percentage points. Since the Spring Festival, the attention of the military industry sector has increased significantly. The overall sector has accumulated a certain increase from the bottom, and there has been a certain callback recently. From a long-term perspective, due to the serious oversold in the previous period, the valuations of some targets are still low. We believe that from the perspective of the military industry’s quarterly report, the performance of the aviation sub-sector has improved the most, and it is still the direction of higher growth. It is expected that with the "13th Five-Year Plan" three years later, new aviation equipment will enter the batch production stage, and OEMs and midstream and downstream suppliers will enter a golden period of simultaneous increase in revenue and profitability. We are firmly optimistic about the 18-year excess return of the military industry. Investment direction: 1. In the long run, it will benefit leading companies in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain; 2. Optimistic about individual stocks with high-tech barriers and strong military and civilian versatility; 3. Optimistic about companies that actively promote reforms; Highly recommend AVICScience and Engineering, AVIC Electromechanical, AVIC Shenfei, Zhongzhi Co., Ltd., AVIC Aircraft, China Dynamics, Aerospace Power, Aerospace Electronics, and Highlander.
2. The combat capability of the aircraft carrier formation system of the Liaoning ship has initially formed. According to CCTV’s “Military Report” on May 24, the Liaoning ship has broken through the night take-off and landing technology of carrier-based aircraft, and the J-15 fighter jets successfully carried out a skid-leap take-off and blocked the ship at night. It is reported that the Liaoning ship has now completed all the subjects of the aircraft carrier formation training program, realized the in-depth integration of various elements in the formation, and the combat capability of the formation system has initially formed. We expect that in the context of the continuous advancement of my country's maritime power strategy, it is expected that with the development of aircraft carrier battle group construction, aircraft carrier-based aircraft and other aviation equipment and aircraft carrier-related industries have a bright future, a broad market space, and the industry is expected to maintain rapid growth.
3. my country's high-end DSP development has made another major breakthrough. According to the "China Electronics Technology" WeChat public account on the 22nd, the 14 fully self-designed Huarui No. 2 DSP chips have recently passed the official acceptance of the "Nuclear High Base" project of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The major national "nuclear high base" project is one of the 16 major scientific and technological projects in the "Outline of the National Medium and Long-term Science and Technology Development Plan" issued by the State Council in 2006, alongside manned spaceflight and lunar exploration projects. Huarui No. 2 DSP can be widely used in civilian fields such as security monitoring, security computers, and military fields such as radar, communications, and electronic countermeasures. Semiconductor integrated circuits are very important to electronic communications. We believe that the breakthrough of domestic high-end DSP chips is of great significance. On the one hand, mastering the core technology of military chips is a necessary measure for information construction. On the other hand, civilian DSP chips are almost monopolized by foreign manufacturers, and there is ample room for import substitution. Under the background of the country's active promotion of military-civilian integration, we are optimistic about the industry performance growth brought about by related technologies to the civilian market, as well as the possibility of related asset securitization.
Risk warning: There are fluctuations in the delivery of defense equipment orders, and the market has adjusted significantly.
Theme market performance review
1. An analysis of recent theme rotations
Recently, the theme market rotation has accelerated significantly. Some themes with a relatively high decline in the previous period have been in the top weekly and monthly growth rates, such as some consumer themes such as new Retail, pharmaceutical e-commerce, cross-border e-commerce, online travel, and other weekly gains are among the top. In terms of monthly gains, in addition to some consumer themes, some regional themes have also increased significantly, which confirms that we are optimistic about the short-term According to the judgment of "consumer theme rotation opportunities", in terms of quarterly growth, core technology themes with high previous growth rates are no longer unique, and some pharmaceutical themes have also ranked first. From the perspective of rotation, the current has entered the strong theme of the previous period. Consolidation, early weak themes (such as regional, consumer) rebound stage, the whole year is still optimistic about the core technology (5G, cloud computing, big data, integrated circuit, big data, etc.) themes of the year's excess returns, continue to be optimistic about the medium term For the rotation opportunities of mass consumer themes, new energy vehicle themes will be added in the medium term.
2. Theme market performance review
Theme events in the next month
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