Securities Times reporter Wan Peng
In October 2007, after the Shanghai Stock Exchange hit a record high of 6124 points, the bear market in the A-share market has continued 7 Years. Since April 2011, the A-share market has also experienced a downturn for three and a half years. In the past three and a half years, the A-share investor structure has shown obvious institutional characteristics, which is concentrated in the continuous decrease in the number of retail accounts and the continuous increase in the number of large institutional accounts.
For the first time, hundreds of millions of accounts have tens of thousands of dollars
Since January 2011, Zhongdeng has begun to announce the distribution of the stock market value of A-share accounts at the end of the month on a monthly basis . In the same month, the number of accounts in the A-share market with a circulating market value of less than 10,000 yuan was 17.6683 million, accounting for 31.90% of the total number of A-share accounts; 28,214,400 had a stock market value of between 10,000 and 100,000, accounting for The ratio is 50.95%; and the number of accounts with a stock market value of more than 100 million yuan is only 5,653, accounting for only 0.1%.
Since then, the number of accounts with 100 million yuan has remained at around 6,000 until December 2012. It began to rise steadily: in November 2013, it crossed the 8,000 mark; in July this year, it exceeded 9,000; in September this year It is the first time to exceed 10,000 households. Judging from the trend in recent months, the trend of accelerating growth is very obvious. Moreover, in recent months, the number of accounts with a stock market value of between 10 million and 100 million yuan has also increased significantly: in April this year, there were only 29,836 accounts, the number increased to 34,828 at the end of July, and it exceeded 40,000 at the end of September, reaching 40,204. Households, an increase of 34.75% in 5 months.
In addition, the number of accounts with a stock market value of 100,000 to 500,000 yuan, 500,000 to 1 million yuan, 1 million to 5 million yuan, and 5 million to 10 million yuan has also been in the last 5 months Significant increase. The increase rate at the end of September compared with the end of April was as high as 18.02%, 30.57%, 35.04% and 37.58%. The higher the stock market value, the greater the increase.
The number of retail investors did not increase but declined
In stark contrast to the substantial growth of large institutional investors, the number of retail holding accounts did not increase but declined.
According to data from Zhongdeng, the number of accounts with a stock market value of less than 10,000 yuan at the end of September was 17.2604 million, a record low since May 2011. At the end of April this year, the number of accounts holding a stock market value of less than 10,000 yuan was as high as 20,219,100. In five months, the A-share market rebounded significantly, but the number of accounts less than 10,000 yuan fell by 2,867,700, a drop of 14.25%.
It is worth noting that accounts with a stock market value of less than 10,000 yuan are the bottom layer in the A-share investor structure, and the trend of changes in the number of accounts has always been negatively correlated with market trends. This situation is mainly because: if the market is good and the market value of some investors increases significantly, they will be among the ranks of 10,000 to 100,000; while the market declines, investors with a market value of 10,000 to 100,000 It is possible to fall back to the bottom. Therefore, the change in the number of accounts in the range of 10,000 to 100,000 yuan is of greater reference.
In May 2011, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index began to break down. In April of that year, the number of accounts with 10,000 to 100,000 yuan was 28,824,600, the highest value since 2011. Since then, regardless of whether the A shares have continued to fall or rebounded sharply, the number of accounts with 10,000 to 100,000 has shown a declining trend. The latest number at the end of September this year was 24,777,800, and the higher point dropped by 4,047.8 million. 14.04%.
Over the past three and a half years, accounts with 10,000 to 100,000 yuan have continued to decline, while the number of accounts below 10,000 yuan has also continued to decline.The decline indicates that the decrease in the number of retail investors is not just a reflection of the fluctuation of stock prices, but a trend change.
The number of shareholding accounts continues to decline
The distribution of the stock market value of A-share accounts announced by Zhongdeng Company reflects the A share held by investors The value of the stock market in circulation does not include restricted shares. At the end of April 2011, the tradable market value of A shares in the two cities was RMB 20.54 trillion, corresponding to 56.021 million tradable shares holding accounts, and the average holding market value of each account was 366,600 yuan. At the end of September this year, the tradable market value of A-shares in the two cities increased to 24.18 trillion yuan, and the tradable market value increased by 17.72%, but the number of corresponding tradable shares holding accounts dropped to 51,806,700. The average account holdings value calculated from this 466.9 million yuan.
Although the listing of new stocks and the lifting of restricted stocks have brought huge wealth effects, the average market value of each account of A shares should increase. However, the conversion of restricted shares to tradable shares will increase the market value of tradable shares while also increasing the number of A-share tradable shares holding accounts. In the past three and a half years, the continuous decline in the number of holding accounts of A-share tradable shares can only be explained by the continuous departure of retail investors.
Judging from the trend of the A-share market since 2011, the stock market continues to be in a downturn and the lack of systematic opportunities in the market should be an important reason for the continued exit of retail investors.
Who is the new dominant force
The withdrawal of retail investors corresponds to the increase of large institutional investors. Then, which institutions are the dominant force in the current market What?
In the last bull market, public funds are undoubtedly the main force. In 2007, the stock market value of public funds was as high as 2.43 trillion yuan, accounting for 27.21 of the A-share market value (8.93 trillion yuan) at that time. %. Since then, the value of the stock market held by public funds has never exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the A-share circulation index has continued to expand. The latest data shows that the total net asset value of common stock funds and partial-equity hybrid funds is only 1.04 trillion yuan, and the market value of A-shares as of the end of September is as high as 24.18 trillion yuan, and public funds account for only 4.3%. . In addition to the market downturn and poor performance, the diversion of capital by "capital-guaranteed" products such as wealth management products is also a major reason for the shrinking share of public funds.
In terms of other mainstream institutions, although the investment amount of insurance capital stock funds has increased in recent years, its proportion of the market value of A-shares has not increased significantly, and currently only accounts for about 3%. Although private equity funds and brokerage asset management have also made considerable progress and have attracted some social funds to join, neither their share of the A-share market nor their influence on the market have reached a sufficient level.
In contrast, with the lifting of the ban on restricted shares, the shareholding ratio of "insiders" such as major shareholders, executives, and strategic investors has shown a rising trend. Statistics show that only the proportion of all A-share executives in the market capitalization of the market capitalization has risen from 1.5% in 2009 to 5.7% in 2013. According to Essence Securities' calculation of the investor structure of A-share tradable shares at the end of 2013, the shareholding ratio of general legal persons (controlling shareholders and other corporate legal persons) has reached 64.80%. This is undoubtedly the biggest dominant force in the current A-share market.
Essence Securities also believes that the changes in the structure of A-share investors will affect the market mainly in two aspects. The first is that company insiders such as major shareholders, executives, and "Xiao Fei" pay special attention to the positive feedback from the capital market on corporate behavior. In the short term, this is mainly due to the lifting of the ban on restricted stocks, but the "wealth management platform" effect of listed companies may make this phenomenon still exist in the medium and long term. The second is the change in market style, that is, stocks with small market capitalization are sought after, and the phenomenon of market theming is obvious.
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