There is a famous saying in the field of value investment: High-quality industry, stable enterprise, underestimated buy, overestimated sell. In fact, this sentence basically expresses the investment thinking of prudent companies. For example, banking, insurance, consumer and other industries conform to this law. Buy when it is undervalued and sell when it is overvalued. Simply put, it means buying in a bear market and selling in a bull market. If ordinary investors can resolutely implement this strategy, it will be easy for the stock price to double in five years. But why the vast majority of people can’t do it, I have summarized four answers: I can’t bear losses, I can’t see gains, I can’t wait to break out, and I can’t help but temptation.
First of all, I can't bear to lose money. I said that I should underestimate the purchase, but no one knows how much it is, and no one can predict the time of the bottom of the bear market. I admire Li Daxiao, but I think his biggest failure is in trying to accurately predict the bottom of the stock market, what is the bottom of the baby, and so on. No one can predict the exact number of points. It is already a god who can predict the quasi-trend, but once it is cast, it will have a very big market effect. Maybe he cares about this. After all, the market's memory of stock gods and the ability to forget about mistakes should not be underestimated. of.
Since we can’t accurately predict the lower limit of the underestimation, we can only choose the opportunity to buy when the underestimation is relatively low and lose money It's inevitable. 20% or even 50% is possible. At this time, we can continuously reduce the cost of buying as long as we control the buying position.
Value investing starts with a loss. The lower the valuation, the greater the value and the better the opportunity.
Secondly, don’t see the increase. Steady companies with high-quality tracks, especially leading companies, generally have large market capitalizations and rarely have funds for short-term speculation, and leading companies in traditional industries rarely have explosive news, such as China Merchants Bank, Ping An, Vanke, etc., so this type of enterprises rarely has a daily limit, let alone a continuous daily limit. Most of the time, the stock price is fluctuating sideways or slightly rising. There are data showing that only 10% of the time, the stock price will rise sharply, and this increase is only in the range of about 20-50%. This is for investors who want to double several times a year or catch a continuous daily limit. The income is simply insignificant.
Third, can’t wait for an outbreak. As I said above, due to the large market value, lack of hype and hot money, the stock price of stable leading companies has been in a state of fine-tuning for a long time. Investing in such companies must be patient and insist on their own choices. Many investors give up before the big rally, chase in during the big rally, and get caught in the high position.
Fourth, I can’t help but temptation. A common problem that most investors have is eating what is in the bowl and looking at what is in the pot. For example, when you hold stocks such as China Ping An, you will find that there are a large number of stocks on the market that have risen more than it every day. This kind of money-making effect will stimulate you from time to time and make you unconsciously start paying attention and research. Browse related articles and start to reflect on how much money you can make if you also buy in while envious of the benefits of others. Looking at the stocks in my hands again, I stood still, and even continued to fall. I couldn't help but complain, and began to curse the stocks I held for trash or something. Over time, I would sell the stocks I held for a long time and instead chase short-term high-yield ones. Variety, wasted the opportunity cost of holding value stocks, and increased the speculative cost of high-value transactions. This is almost a common problem for most investors, and it is also the main reason for the failure of most investors.
The person who can withstand the temptation is not a god, or a person who has gone through the pain and stood up again. The true god is actually People who have succeeded after countless failures are the elites in real life, they are the minority, and they are scarce in the capital market. So from this perspective, the capital marketIt is impossible for all shareholders to make money at all, because there are always people who think that they are smart and that they will become the biggest winner in the capital market, but such people can hardly survive in the capital market.
The passion to see others' high-yield is short-lived, while capital markets rely on investment for profit is long-term. This short and long contradiction deeply tests the personality, patience, wisdom, knowledge, etc. of investors. I have passed this level, and you will also have to pass it.
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