Affected by the epidemic in 2021, the world auto market will continue to be in a persistent downturn, but sales in China have rebounded strongly. Since the second half of 2020, China's auto market has gradually emerged from the impact of the epidemic. China has shown a reversal trend. The auto market affected by the epidemic in Europe and the United States is sluggish, forming a complex situation in the world corporate market in 2021.
As a highly monopolistic industry such as automotive chips, the supply side should be responsible for protecting supply security. This supply-side accident will bring a major opportunity for the rise of China's supply chain.
From a global perspective, Asian groups represented by Toyota (TM.US) and Hyundai-Kia have relatively strong performance, and Chinese car companies have the most prominent rebound effect. From January to April, the world share of Chinese cars was 32%. This is also China's strong response to the world's new crown epidemic, rapid economic and social recovery, and showing the characteristics of good development.
1. World car sales over the years
The car sales of the world’s major countries from January to April 28.25 million Taiwan, an increase of 33% year-on-year, has recovered superb performance after the epidemic. However, the sales volume in January-April 2021 is still lower than that in 2019, and there is a large gap between the high level in recent years.
The trend of January-April this year is still lower than the previous year's sales level, only better than the level of 2020, so it is still in the recovery period.
World car sales over the years
The world car sales in the above table are mainly sales in 70 countries , These 70 core countries have about 90 million units in 2019, which is basically able to track monthly sales.
There are 100 other countries that can only track annual sales, a total of about 3 million units in 2019. Relative to the core countries with 90 million units, the total amount of these smaller countries is about 3%, which has little effect.
From the perspective of world sales represented by major countries, world car sales in 2018 fell by 1%. For the first time since 2010, it has fallen into annual negative growth. Vehicle sales in 2019 were 89.81 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Slightly worse than the decline in 2008. From January to December 2020, sales fell by 13%.
.From January to April 2021, it will rebound by 33% year-on-year, of which China will rebound by 52%, and the rest of the world will rebound by 26%.
2. China's sales volume from January to April resumes its leading position
China’s auto market has a positive impact on the world’s auto market The influence is extremely huge. In 2018, Chinese automobiles accounted for 30% of the world, and in 2019 it dropped to 29%, but it still has an absolute advantage. However, in 2020, it will rebound to 32%. In the first quarter, China's share was surpassed by Europe. In January 2021, China's share rebounded sharply and reached a new high.
In 2018, China’s domestic automobile sales were 28 million units, a 3% year-on-year decrease, and the sales volume fell by 880,000 units, which was a decrease of 760,000 units relative to the global sales volume. China’s sales volume fell more than the global total.
In 2019, China’s auto sales were 25.75 million units, a decrease of 2.06 million units, compared with the global sales drop of 2.75 million units, and the contribution of China’s sales decline was 75%.,
China’s autos in 2020 The sales volume was 25.27 million units, a decrease of 480,000 units. Compared with the global sales volume of 11.8 million units, the sales volume in China decreased by 4%.
From January to April 2021, the world car sales volume was 27.5 million units, of which China Automobile sales amounted to 8.74 million units, an increase of 52%, the North American market increased by 27%, the European market increased by 25%, the Asian country market increased by 26%, and the southern hemisphere market increased by 20%. The Chinese auto market is also a pure contribution.
3. World auto sales trends
The world’s growth rate of 33% from January to April 2021 , Of which China grew by 52%, while other majorThe market is overall slower than China's growth rate. Therefore, the recovery rate of the world auto market is still relatively good in China.
However, the sales volume in China from January to April is still lower than the historical high level.
4. Regional differentiation of the new crown epidemic
The number of confirmed cases of the new crown epidemic in the world from December 2020 After peaking at a daily average of 650,000, it gradually dropped to an average of 390,000 in February, and then continued to rise to 750,000 in April. At the beginning of May, it remained close to a peak of 600,000 per day. Among them, the epidemic situation in North America continued to improve, the epidemic situation in some countries in Europe and Asia remained high, and the epidemic risk in South America continued to rise.
The control of the US epidemic has been greatly improved since Trump stepped down, so the US auto market has continued to pick up. The US auto market from January to April was significantly stronger than the European auto market.
4. Markets in developing countries are generally not strong
From the perspective of sales in various countries around the world, the current performance Relatively good is the market in developed countries, Japan, Germany, the US market and the French market have overall strong performance, the market in developing countries is generally poor, and the Chinese market has a relatively strong performance.
5. China’s world market share trend
The main market decline in January 2021 It is the United States, and China's share is at a high level. From January to April in 2021, the Chinese New Year factors have led to a low world share, but China still reached 30% of the world share in April. This year, under the epidemic, the Chinese auto market is generally strong among the weak in the world.
6. The characteristics of monthly car sales in various countries
From the monthly sales growth trend of various countries in the world It can be seen that the monthly trend is basically in a balanced state, but due to the influence of seasonal factors, annual factors and many other factors, there is still a big contrast in the trend of various countries.
As China's auto market is still popular, it is relatively strong at the beginning of the year and the end of the year, and the trend in summer is relatively soft. The U.S. auto market is relatively weak at the beginning of the year and relatively stable in the middle of the year.
The Japanese corporate market shows relatively strong trends in April and June 2020, and the Japanese auto market in October-December has a relatively strong trend. Stronger.
In 2020, after a sharp decline in the Chinese auto market in April, there will be a rapid reversal in April 2020, which will continue to be strong from April to December.
The US, Japan, South Korea, Germany and other auto markets are all facing aggravation of the epidemic. After the auto market has experienced a sharp decline, the auto market downturn has gradually improved. However, in 2021, other auto markets in the world will be affected by the European epidemic and will be down.
7. The world share performance of international groups
The local area is the trend of world sales share. Judging from the current overall performance of the group, the Asian sector generally performed well. As the Asian sector paid more attention to the epidemic, the losses suffered were relatively small and the market performance was relatively strong.
The Toyota Group’s performance is relatively strong, and its share in the world in 2021 has reached a level of about 12.5%. However, Volkswagen’s performance is relatively sluggish and the European epidemic has a greater impact.
The Honda Group also reached a slightly lower share of 5.4% this year, but it still surpassed Ford. Germany's Mercedes-Benz and BMW Group performed very well. Hyundai Kia has continued to be strong in the past two years.
8. The performance of international groups in the proportion of each country
The layout is differentiated. The Volkswagen Group has relatively strong performance in China and Europe, while its performance in North America and the Southern Hemisphere and other Asian countries is relatively weak.
Companies such as Toyota perform well in China, but are weaker than other countries. which performed. Hyundai Kia has the smallest decline, but China's performance is weak.
This article is selected from "Cui Dongshu", author: Cui Dongshu; editor: Xu Wenqiang.