June 10th, Tesla (TSLA .US) The intraday stock price exceeded $1,000, and the market value soared to $190.1 billion. This market value exceeds the global auto market value champion Toyota Motor (TM.US), becoming the world’s highest market value Business.
Recall the timeline of Tesla’s hurricane: In April 2017, Tesla’s market value surpassed Ford (F.US), becoming the second most valuable car company in the United States ; In August of the same year, Tesla’s market value was GM.US, becoming the highest market value car company in the United States; in February 2020, Tesla’s market value surpassed BMW and Volkswagen combined, becoming the world’s second car company by market value; 2020 In June 2006, it surpassed Toyota to become the world's most valuable car company.
Although the outside world has expectations of Tesla’s rush to the peak, for many people, this happened too quickly.
A year ago, this company was also questioned about demand issues, and was shorted by many institutions. The stock price fell from more than US$300 to US$176 a year; After today, Tesla's stock price rushed to a high of $1,000, surpassing Toyota to become the world's most valuable auto company. Behind the brilliance is the reality that Tesla has only been established for 17 years, has an annual output of less than 500,000 vehicles, and has not achieved a profitable fiscal cycle.
When Tesla reached the top, some people cheered and thought it was a landmark event in the age of electric cars; some people furiously thought it was the sorrow of the world’s auto industry. Is Tesla on the top of the pyramid a "pig on the tuyere" or "the beginning of the end of the fuel age"? How should we objectively evaluate the thousand-yuan share price mark that Tesla has passed this time? We tried to sort out the data and objectively analyze the deep-level logic behind Tesla's summit.
Trump releases water to "water" Tesla
This time Tesla The reason for the stock surge is largely due to the mass production of Semi commercial trucks.
In an internal email disclosed by the media, Tesla CEO Musk said that after a short production suspension caused by a health incident, Tesla is increasing car production , Especially the production of Semi electric trucks. After that, Musk sent a message via Twitter to confirm the authenticity and accuracy of this email.
Relevant information shows that in November 2017, Tesla officially released Tesla Semi in the United States, which is the semi-trailer electric truck plan. According to previous plans, "Semi" was initially planned for mass production in 2019, but was later postponed to "realize small batch production at the end of 2020." In the financial report for the first quarter of 2020, Tesla also stated that the production and delivery of "Semi" will be postponed to 2021.
In addition to the above-mentioned data that has made the market more exciting, Tesla has been in crisis recently.
In March 2020, following China’s It broke out. On March 23, 2020, Tesla's Fremont factory officially shut down. This is one of Tesla's largest factories in the world. Previously, its normal production capacity was 32,050 vehicles per month and approximately 1,045 vehicles per day. After the resumption of production on May 9th, it has not yet returned to the daily level of 1,000 vehicles due to various factors. What is more worrying is that after the short-term resumption of production, 4 Model S/X production lines The staff tested positive (diagnosed).
For Tesla, which has an inventory cycle of only 11 days, production stoppages and less capacity mean sales stoppages . In April 2020, under the impact of health incidents, Tesla’s global sales of 14,793 vehicles dropped by more than 75% month-on-month. It was down 28.9% year-on-year.
At the first-quarter telephone earnings conference held at the end of April, Musk said to the outside world: "Even if the factory resumes work, the factory will currently face capacity constraints caused by the untimely supply chain. "Obviously, Musk has made sufficient expectations for Tesla's sales decline due to limited production capacity in the future.
Obviously, from From the actual situation of Tesla, this round of stock price rise does not match its current operating conditions. Even Musk has previously stated that “Tesla stock price is too high” (in my opinion, Tesla’s stock price is too high). Too high).
In the eyes of many analysts, in fact, Tesla’s summit is inseparable from the recent trend of US stocks. Breakthrough from Tesla At the same time as the US$1,000 mark, the Nasdaq index also broke through 10,000 points. The highest position in history since the health incident. In a sense, Tesla’s stock price can rise to the highest position thanks to the US government’s economic stimulus policy since the health incident broke out.
In the context of the entire economic crisis, the Federal Reserve introduced economic rescue measures very early and began to “release water” frantically. As a large reservoir of the United States, U.S. stocks quickly became a place for capital to flow into. After the U.S. health incidents began to level off in April, the Nasdaq Index rebounded from the lowest end is an obvious sign.
Some analysts said, For US stock investors, if they do not follow Tesla, then the yield will be quickly pulled down by the market (zero interest rates, unlimited easing, and the bubble will be quickly blown up). If you don’t get on the ship, it will mean huge losses. ; If you follow the Tesla bubble, then when the bubble burst will be a problem. It is possible that the loss of enjoying the bubble will be far greater than the loss of bubble breakage.
"Obviously, investors' pursuit of Tesla will continue! "Some industry experts believe that after all, the U.S. stock market with no daily limit is a big casino. In the face of the madly growing Tesla, no one will resist missing such an opportunity. The game of drumming and spreading flowers will continue, and Tesla will not even be ruled out. The stock price has not reached its peak.
Tesla’s market value = the outside world’s expectations of Tesla
Although it is mentioned above that under Tesla’s current revenue situation, Tesla does not match the current market high of 180 billion in market value, but this does not mean that Tesla’s bubble is inflated. In some respects, certain characteristics of Tesla are worthy of investment by investors, at least an ideal target full of value.
"In the long run, Sla must have this value, but not now. "A number of industry observers told car predictors that the current performance of Tesla's market value actually reflects the outside world's expectations for Tesla.At its root, it is no longer possible to look at Tesla and Toyota too purely in terms of sales. Because from the root cause, the two car companies have done different things.
In the US stock market, investors have a completely different understanding of whether Tesla is a technology company or an automobile company. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas had Said: "We believe that now (its opponents) are not Toyota or General Motors, but those worth trillions US dollar large technology companies.” Jonas added that these large technology companies have the ability to attract talent and capital, and if necessary, they will lose money against companies like Tesla.
A seemingly clear conclusion is: Tesla’s value may not really be in car manufacturing, at least the current annual sales of 500,000 cannot support Tesla Currently the world's largest market value. For the outside world, observing Tesla is not just from Tesla itself.
Some analysts bluntly said that if you really want to know whether Tesla’s cars should be bought and stocks should be bought, you should not stare at Tesla. , But to see Musk’s other two companies, SpaceX for commercial space and SolarCity for solar energy. "These two companies have determined the height of Tesla."
SpaceX is a space commercial company under the name of Musk. Not long ago, SpaceX completed a manned launch for the first time, becoming the world's first private company to provide this service.
Martian immigration and space travel are certainly the series of goals that SpaceX pursues. But in its technology tree, it is also constantly lighting up skills for Tesla. There is no other car company that can send satellites and computers to space except Tesla.
Solar energy is a very controversial business. In the eyes of outsiders, pure electric cars are not related to household solar energy. Earlier, Musk had expressed his expectations for SolarCity's solar business: if electric vehicles are to be popular, then charging piles will have to be scattered around the world like petrol trucks. However, unlike oil transportation, how to connect so many cables on the vast ground to ensure that the charging pile has electricity?
Musk’s idea is that if you don’t need cables, no electrical facilities, and no power supply, you can directly use solar energy to store electricity on the charging pile, and then Use charging piles to charge electric vehicles. Clean enough, environmentally friendly, and most importantly, the cost is low enough. And SolarCity is an important middle link of this vision.
"Tesla, a technology company like Tesla, brings a sense of freshness to the outside world that traditional auto companies cannot provide." Well-known economic commentator and editor-in-chief of China Times, Shuipi Once told the car predictor that the size of the imagination is an important factor affecting the valuation of the capital market. The reason why the valuation of companies such as Tesla continues to rise is actually that the capital market has more room for future imagination of this type of company.
There is no doubt that Tesla has given the outside world enough room for imagination, and it has also made Tesla the world’s largest market value today.
the beginning of a new era
Whether you recognize Tesla or not, from When Tesla surpassed Toyota to become the world's most valuable auto company, it marked that a global auto industry constructed from traditional fuel vehicles was being torn apart. This event has a strong symbolic significance. Although there are many opportunities and coincidences behind this.
In the past ten years or so, everyone in the automotive industry has been calling for electricAutomobiles disrupt the world, but there has never been a traditional car company that has actually stud electrified. The analogy of the analyst’s image:
"Tesla and traditional car companies are facing electrification at the same time. It is like building a 100-story building. The 80th floor began to be covered, and Tesla started to build the walls from the foundation. Now the result is that in less than 5 years, the traditional car company has covered the 95th floor and found that Tesla is also on the 95th floor when I look up, and Tes The speed of building a house is faster than that of traditional car companies, the structure of the building is updated, and the concept seems to be more advanced."
As in Nokia When people in the era saw the first iPhone, they thought it was not a great phone, it had one that looked cool Function, but may only occupy a small part of the market share. They will shrug their shoulders and say: "It doesn't support 3G, it just has a powerful camera."
Like the above example, I became a traditional car company 5 years ago. When people saw Tesla for the first time, they also thought it was not a good car. It has some good features, but it will not occupy the mainstream of the market. They will say: "Look at this car, its assembly is too rough, the doors are not installed well, and sometimes water leaks."
It turns out that Nokia (NOK .US) The user’s judgment was ridiculously wrong at the time, and they paid the price; are the people at the traditional car company wrong? When Tesla aspired to global autos with a market value of 180 billion, traditional autos had to re-examine this company, at least in their eyes.
Tesla is an interesting case study of "software swallowing the world" and "what happens when disruptive technologies enter emerging industries". Generally speaking, the fascinating thing about Tesla is that it has been evolving and has been doing many different types of innovations. For new car factories and traditional car factories, it is often the case that people who understand software do not know enough about cars, and people who know cars do not know much about software. Tesla combines two advantages.
Throughout the history of human high-tech industry, it is full of exploratory companies, some companies have excellent products, and some companies’ products are forward-looking. Some companies can disrupt the industry. The same is true in the automotive industry. The great innovative car company and the great car company are sometimes not the same. But there are not too many who can combine the two, and those who combine together have become great companies.Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
Editor in charge: Meng Ran