According to the International Business Daily, "Biden’s banner was slightly larger than Trump before May, but after June, Trump’s banner and propaganda hat began to increase, and the number of orders was Since 2000. For us, the loss in the first half of the year was not small. If we had work, we had to continue and make up for the loss." Mr. Lu is the person in charge of Zhejiang Wufu Banner Factory, and he received the same There are not a few manufacturers ordering.
However, according to columnist Lian Qingchuan, Yiwu’s shipment volume is A circumstantial evidence is meaningful, but from the perspective of big data, too much calculation is required: for example, what proportion of the support products produced in Yiwu account for all the support products, the purchase ratio of both parties' purchasers, and the actual utilization rate Wait.
Therefore, using Yiwu products to make predictions has too much error to be used for actual research. It looks good as a general election lace.
How good is the "Yiwu Index"?
Yiwu Market is the world's largest small commodity wholesale market. 260 billion small commodities are sold to the world every year. The so-called "Yiwu Index" is a statistical analysis of various data of the entire industry.
The official website of Yiwu introduces itself as a weather vane of small commodity prices and a barometer of market conditions.
Yiwu has become a window into the world. If you can understand this data, you can almost become a "half expert" in the international market and international relations.
About whether Trump can be elected , Yiwu people have a great say. Most of these support items in the United States are purchased from Yiwu. In the Internet age, big data will not lie.
A Japanese TV station came to Yiwu, China, to interview township and village enterprises that were used as campaign materials. Source: British newspaper sister.
There are many cases of "Yiwu Index" unknown to the prophet in the world, and it is precisely because the flow of product data will not deceive people.
A rubber craft factory in Zhejiang received an order from the other side of the ocean for a 500,000 Trump cheering mask.
In the 2016 general election, because the number of orders for Trump's support items far exceeded Hillary's, Yiwu bosses directly ignored Hillary's huge advantage in the 72% poll support rate and predicted Trump's rise.
Trump defeated Hillary Clinton at the last minute and made Yiwu Index become famous.
A banner factory owner said that he knew Trump would be elected for a long time.
Because before the election, there were customer feedback that Hillary’s support flag was not easy to sell, and Trump’s support flag market He dared to take it without a big deposit. In the town, his family made 200,000 noodles from start to finish.
Yiwu's export order volume has since been regarded as an important reference for Moody's, RAND Corporation, Brookings Institution, etc. by the major market.
Not exactly a paragraph
"Yiwu boss predicts the US election" is actually not entirely a joke. It is true that there is a self-consistent logic in the small commodity export trade.
The President of the United States and money are inseparable. U.S. elections need to burn money everywhere, including campaign offices, advertising announcements, staff salaries, and speaking tours.
Buyers such as support props are basically large foreign traders and wholesalers. Most of the procurement needs of these wholesalers directly come from local governments, parties and consortia, as well as some non-governmental support organizations.
So to a certain extent, the number of orders can indeed reflect the Americans’ support for different candidates to a certain extent.
The relationship between Yiwu's small commodity orders and the results of the U.S. election is fundamentally caused by the U.S. election system. Presidential candidates need money for both "top search" and "removal search".
Although the U.S. system has been improving in this regard, in terms of results, it seems that it has only changed from receiving "hard money" to receiving "soft money."
The page on Trump's official website asking you to donate money.
At present, U.S. law imposes a series of restrictions on campaign candidates’ fundraising, but "investors" can still help candidates "top search", "withdraw hot search", etc. by funding the candidate's economic team. To achieve the purpose of support, such as combating opponents.
There is an organization related to the general election in the United States called "Super PACs". The purpose of this organization is to avoid restrictions on candidates' campaign expenses.
In the 2012 U.S. election, the organization burned out for advertising. $350 million. More than half of the funds came from less than 100 people. And the number of campaign support groups similar to Super PACs is unknown in the United States.
Statistics show that in recent general elections, most of the donations received by candidates only came from 4% of the TOP population in the United States.
"To win an election, you need two things. One is money, and the second is something I can’t remember." Every In a US presidential election, the words of campaign expert Mark Hannah more than 100 years ago will always be quoted repeatedly by the media.
The wealthy Americans support politicians through money and bind the interests of both parties to achieve monopoly and hereditary. Letting "voting and democracy" become empty shelves is just a comfort medicine for the toiling public.
According to the US media NPR data: So far, Biden has raised a total of more than 600 million U.S. dollars, while Trump has reached 1 billion U.S. dollars, twice as fast as Biden's.
Source: British newspaper sister
"Anti-globalization" Trump, it’s difficult to get rid of Yiwu’s dependence
Christmas products sold by Yiwu merchants.
In addition to the amount of Trump's support items, another data is also quite interesting. According to a CCTV report: As of last year’s Christmas Eve statistics, 80% of the world’s Christmas products are made in China, and 80% of China’s share is made in Yiwu. The data provided by Yiwu Customs is: in the first three quarters of 2019, Yiwu’s Christmas merchandise exports were 2.23 billion yuan, an increase of 22.08%.
This data is actually more meaningful than the general election support products. It at least illustrates one problem: when unilateral trade protectionism began to prevail in the world, China's status as the "world factory" of small commodities Never shaken.
Yiwu still maintains its position as a “world factory” in the candidates’ support products and Christmas products, which fully demonstrates that Europe and the United States are also typical in terms of global trade. ".
Trang made by Yiwu bosses Universal support props.
The irony is precisely that Trump and his supporters are very typical "anti-globalists."
To put it bluntly, Trumps just want to turn the entire world’s trade structure into a stable hierarchical structure: the low-end is always the low-end, and they can stand at the top and enjoy high profits. Enjoy low-priced goods.
Lian Qingchuan pointed out that the "Yiwu Index" is actually a very interesting indicator during the frustrated period of globalization: the Western world’s mouths and honesty are all at a glance, and the operating space is naturally present.: Both sides have sufficient chips and strategies. No leader in a Western country dares to take the risk of a large-scale increase in commodity prices, because it means the loss of stocks; but if the country of origin is to make progress in trade negotiations, it must know where the pain points of the West are.
The Republican US President Trump seeking re-election will face off against the Democratic presidential candidate Biden.
Standing in Yiwu to see the world, we don’t want to think that it can really predict the outcome of the general election, but to know that if the status of the “world factory” is to be consolidated and even developed, we must truly understand their election. Politics, and how to advance and retreat to gain China’s own right to speak.