Refer to the news network reported on July 3 that foreign media said More than half of 2020, this year is becoming one of the darkest years in the United States in peacetime. Of the world's deaths from new crowns, a quarter came from the United States. The Americans were disgracefully rejected by the European Union and other allies. The unemployment rate is currently at the highest stage that people have experienced in their lives. Nearly 90% of Americans are dissatisfied with the current state of the country.
The epidemic worsens and the economy is struggling
According to Agence France-Presse, Washington, July 2 According to reports, statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States as of 20:30 on July 1st show that the number of new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States reached 52,898 in a single day, a record high since the outbreak. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeds 2.7 million.
Recently, there are about 40,000 new cases every day in the United States. Houston (Texas) and Phoenix (Arizona) and other epidemic centers are also seeing an increase in hospital admissions.
Reported that in view of the rebound of the epidemic, some states had to suspend the unblocking. California decided on July 1 to resume measures during the worst period of the epidemic, banning all indoor catering operations in Los Angeles and 18 other counties. The ban also involves bars, cinemas and museums for at least three weeks.
The Governor of Michigan also announced the closure of the bar. Although wearing masks in the United States has become a highly politicized issue, Oregon and Pennsylvania have joined the ranks of states that mandate the wearing of masks in public places.
Reported that US President Trump has not worn a mask in public appearances so far. He also reiterated on July 1 that he believed the epidemic would "disappear at some point."
The June employment report to be released by the US government on the 2nd may bring good news to the economy, but the surge in confirmed cases may reverse the tentative recovery.
Reported that the unemployment rate in the United States in May was 13.3%, and analysts predict that the unemployment rate in June may drop to 12.6%. But with more than 40,000 new confirmed cases every day, economists worry that the local government's suspension of trying to restore normalcy and the forced closure of enterprises will worsen the situation.
According to the U.S. "Political News" website reported on July 1, the employment report that will be released on July 2 local time may look good: as the states Reopening, the employed population increased by millions in June. But these figures are deceptive. With the return of the epidemic and a new round of blockade measures, the reality of the job market may be much bleak.
Reported that as more than 40% of the U.S. regions have now cancelled or suspended restart plans, the already struggling U.S. economy has begun to show signs of shock again. Real-time indicators, including job postings, restaurant reservations, and small business operations, all show that economic activity has fallen again. The survey results released by the US Census Bureau on the 1st showed that the number of households whose income has shrunk in the next month is expected to increase in the last week. This is the first increase in this data since the weekly survey began two months ago.
Reported that there are some signs that the pace of recovery may be slowing down. The number of weekly first-time jobless claims has stabilized at around 1.5 million for most of June, still more than double the previous highest level. In the latest data, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the United States remains at around 20 million.
Analysts say that the slowdown in data improvement is worrying, and the new restrictions will also cause more unemployment. Many economists and parliamentarians have emphasized that the substantial increase in new cases alone means that the economy will face More trouble, need more help.
Fact picture: On June 28, in Austin, Texas, USA, people protested against the government’s mandatory requirement to wear masks. (Reuters)
The current state of the country worries the American people
The British "Financial Times" website July 1 Published an article entitled "The United States is in the Worst Situation", saying that in the past half of 2020, this year is becoming one of the darkest years in the United States in peacetime.
The article stated that a quarter of the world's deaths from the new crown came from the United States. Americans are disgracefully rejected by the European Union and other allies. The unemployment rate is currently at the highest stage that people have experienced in their lives. George F. Lloyd’s death exposed the issue of racial inequality.
The article stated that even though people’s pain during the Great Depression was more unforgettable, there was no pandemic at that time. . In view of the fact that the logistical test brought by the presidential election has not yet come, there is still plenty of room for worse this year.
The article points out that it hurts Increasingly strong is the close scrutiny from other parts of the world. The United States is the only country whose domestic failure will trigger large-scale protests on other continents, and Freud’s death has such an impact. Moreover, the United States is responding to the new crown epidemic. Clumsyly messing up things, causing numerous reports from foreign media.
Next, the United States found that it might be in the worst situation. Its external Both its influence and internal cohesion are declining. It has lost its spiritual influence on people in other places. The more rigorous the external scrutiny, the more shortcomings exposed by the United States, and the weaker its ability to win global respect. The whole process fell into a vicious circle.
According to a report on the website of Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao on July 2, the latest survey by the Pew Research Center in the United States showed that nearly 90% of Americans are dissatisfied with the status quo of the country.
According to this online poll conducted from June 16 to 22, only 17 % Said that the United States makes them "proud", while as many as 71% are angry with the state of the country, and 66% feel worried.
Polls show that only 12% of people are satisfied with the country’s current development direction, compared to 31% in a similar survey conducted in April. Today, 87% of people are dissatisfied, and this dissatisfaction is affecting their perception of President Trump, who is seeking re-election.
According to a Reuters report in New York on July 1, as the United States has seen a record number of new cases in a single day, Reuters and Ipsos Group announced on the 1st According to a poll conducted by the United States, Americans’ concerns about the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic have reached their highest level in more than a month.
A poll conducted from June 29 to 30 found that 81% of American adults said they were “very” or “somewhat” worried about the epidemic. This is The highest rate since a similar survey was conducted in mid-May.
According to a report on the US Consumer News and Business Channel website on July 1, researchers from the University of North Carolina and Harvard Medical School announced that they The results of a half-month survey of 1,500 Americans. 55% said they felt more nervous than in January, before the virus was considered a widespread threat. The most stressed groups include Hispanics and people over 50.
The report quoted a research report as saying: “Based on these findings, it’s safe to say that at least a quarter of American adults are currently in a state that can be directly attributable to the epidemic. The state of high emotional distress."
The survey asked “what causes the greatest increase in stress and anxiety”. The biggest concern is the health and safety of friends or family members. Other stress factors of medium and above grades include: frustration about not being able to enjoy usual activities, worry that society may collapse, worry about personal finances, etc.
[Extended reading] Foreign media: There are over 50,000 new cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States a day breaking a single-day record
Reference News Network reported on July 3, according to the German News Agency Washington’s July 2 news, in the United States, with the surge in cases of new coronary pneumonia in some areas, the total number of new cases of new coronary pneumonia in various states exceeded 50,000 , Breaking the record of new cases of new coronary pneumonia in a single day in the United States.
The report states that before Johns Hopkins University’s release of this data on Wednesday, local time, the average number of new cases per day in the United States this week exceeded 40,000 cases.
According to reports, some states have been forced to cancel or suspend reopening. (Compile/Wang Tianliao)
[Extended reading] Foreign media analysis: Downside risks increase, the US stock market’s soaring momentum may not continue
Refer to the news network reported on July 2 According to foreign media observations, Driven by a series of central bank stimulus measures and hopes for a strong economic recovery, Wall Street stocks have set their best quarterly performance in more than 20 years as the global financial markets generally rebounded. As the new crown pneumonia epidemic broke out in many states in the United States, the outside world believes that the downside risks are increasing.
According to a report on the website of the Financial Times on June 30, the S&P 500 has risen by 20% in the past three months, setting a record since 1998. The biggest quarterly increase since the fourth quarter. The MSCI Global Index shows that in the second quarter of this year, the stock markets of developed and emerging markets as a whole rose by 17%. In addition, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose nearly 13%, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 15%.
stimulus measures boost confidence
HSBC Bank strategist Max Kertner said The stimulus measures announced by central banks, including the Federal Reserve’s series of interventions to appease unstable markets, helped boost the stock market. He said that hopes for a rapid recovery in major economies are heating up, helping the stock market maintain its upward momentum later in the second quarter.
Ketner said: “The stock market rebounded sharply in the second quarter and has recovered more than three-quarters of the losses in the first quarter.”< p cms-style="font-L">The British Financial Times website stated that despite this, given the uncertainty of the trajectory of the epidemic, and how quickly major economies will recover from this shock is still unknown , Many investors remain cautious. As the new crown pneumonia epidemic broke out in many states in the United States, the United States, the world's largest developed market, is still particularly worrying.
Ethan Harris, an economist at Bank of America, said: “It’s not surprising that the epidemic has returned. However, downside risks are increasing.”
Harris said that he expects that “as relevant regulations are forced to reverse, people become more cautious, and there will be some reversal in economic activity in epidemic hotspots.” Research by Goldman Sachs shows that the blockade measures in some areas of the United States are being tightened or plans to relax restrictions are shelved, which affects 40% of the US population.
The risk of the epidemic should not be underestimated
Chief Market Strategist of HSBC Private Banking Department William Zells said that the key question now is whether the resurgence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic "will become a systemic problem enough to change the positive momentum of profit correction and economic growth, or will people think-I think they are currently In this way-we have bottomed out in this regard."
As investors seek to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, precious metal prices have risen along with the stock market. Gold futures prices in New York exceeded $1,800 per ounce for the first time in more than seven years. The price of gold rose by nearly 13% in the second quarter of this year. , The largest quarterly increase since 2016.
Reported that the improvement of Chinese factory activity has boosted investor sentiment in Asia. In June of this year, an official announcement was made. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) exceeded economists’ forecasts.
Mitul Kotcha, emerging market strategist at TD Securities, said "The increase in PMI is in line with the further expansion of industrial production in June, which is in sharp contrast with the situation in other Asian countries. In the short term, PMI data may support risk assets. "
The report also pointed out that following the release of positive economic data from China and Europe, oil prices fell after rebounding on June 29. Brent, an international benchmark Crude oil prices fell 1.2% to US$41.22 per barrel. The US West Texas Intermediate Base crude oil price did not change much and remained at US$39.70 per barrel.
In Brent crude oil At the same time as the weakening, Royal Dutch Shell said it would write down the value of assets of 22 billion U.S. dollars. The company warned that the epidemic will cause a lasting blow to the demand for energy products and the global economy. Shell's share price in the London stock market fell by about 4% .
The market environment remains turbulent
According to the German News TV Channel website June 29 Japan reported that after Wall Street was hit hard, the world now looks different. But because the environment is still turbulent, on the one hand, investors are still worried about a new wave of new crown pneumonia outbreaks-in the United States, new infections are growing rapidly again; On the one hand, central banks of various countries have loosened monetary policies, various stimulus plans and the gradual recovery of some countries’ economies continue to give people the hope that the global economy will recover soon.
The report said that the upcoming home sales have brought positive surprises. In May, US home sales increased by a record 44%, while experts expect only a 15% increase. Nonetheless, people are still concerned about the basic recovery. Doubtful. Philippe Blancato, president of Ladenburg Talman Asset Management, said: "The market is spreading more purely speculative optimism than in my previous career. "
Sebastian Gurry, macro strategist at Nord Asset Management, said: "Volatility is still high, which shows that people’s fears are still high . "Saxo Bank chief economist Sting Jacobson also pointed out that in view of the end of the month and the end of the quarter, large fund managers will readjust their investment portfolios.
Data map: New York, USA Wall Street Bronze Bull. (Xinhua News Agency)
【Extended reading】Russian experts believe that: American power may appear "avalanche-like" decline
Refer to the news website reported on July 1st in Russia’s "Side View" The weekly website published an article entitled "The Long-Term Decline of the United States and Its Impact on the World Order" on June 30, stating that politicians around the world have gradually begun to notice that the United States may indeed decline suddenly and withdraw from this or that region. Loss of the ability or willingness to project power to the world. The author is Vasily Kashin, Director of the Office of International Military Political and Military Economic Issues of the Russian State Higher School of Economics. The content of the article is abstracted as follows:
There are so many people predicting the collapse of the United States, and the reasons are so absurd that any attempt to discuss this issue will cause natural rejection. However, politicians around the world are gradually beginning to notice that the United States may indeed decline suddenly , Withdraw from this or that region, and lose the ability or willingness to project power to the world.
What is meaningful is the development trend of the United States itself. For example, the average life expectancy of ordinary people in the United States is shorter than that of citizens of other countries at the same level of development. Between 2014 and 2018, the average life expectancy of Americans has even further shortened. This is an important sign of a difficult life and a characteristic of the Soviet Union when it was in stagnation.
Despite the country’s economic success on the books, the slow and continuous shrinking of the American middle class with stagnant or declining income is another worrying sign . The growing inequality over the past few decades, and the declining employment levels since the late 1990s have enriched this picture.
The health expenditure of the United States accounts for 17% of GDP, which is more than almost all countries. But at the same time, its medical care is undoubtedly the worst among developed countries, and may even be inferior to individual developing countries in some respects. The U.S. response to the new crown virus epidemic is the worst in the world.
Since the beginning of this century, the proportion of US national debt to GDP has almost doubled. It was still high at the end. The United States spends more on the military than other permanent members of the UN Security Council combined, but its military advantage over the enemy is systematically weakening.
Each parameter alone is not meaningful. The point is that these indicators have continued to deteriorate for decades, which is a symptom of the failure of the US political system at the end or just after the end of the Cold War. Since the 1970s, the American system has lost its ability to respond flexibly and has been eroded by party caucus struggles and out-of-hospital activities. Life began to be fully ideological: there were signs of bringing the "only correct doctrine of progress" into precision science and technical science education.
The decline of the United States has long gone beyond the scope of purely backward economic growth. This is becoming a consensus, although it is rarely discussed publicly. It determines the behavior of many countries around the world. Some countries, such as Turkey, have shifted from being the only leader of the United States to an independent multi-faceted policy. Japan and South Korea are investing more and more in their relations with countries such as Russia and India just in case they start hedging risks. At the same time, they are also trying to stabilize their relations with China. South Korea refused to further participate in the US anti-missile system deployment plan in 2017. Japan recently decided to abandon the deployment of the land-based Aegis anti-missile system on the grounds of opposition from local politicians. Even Australia's closest ally is increasingly showing the idea of "not putting eggs in one basket." Merkel, the actual leader of the European Union, said bluntly that Europe should prepare for a world without the leadership of the United States.
US military and diplomatic power has since avalanche or become a major unpredictable factor, especially in Asia. It is important for some countries to expect this kind of avalanche to increase day by day.
(2020-07-01 17:23:42)Massive information, precise interpretation, all In Sina Finance APP