2, Tesla takes the three generations of product positioning as the path to sink sequentially, and uses electrification to cut in and to develop differentiated competition with intelligence , A high degree of vertical integration, and gradually expand the user group, while maintaining environmental protection, technology, high-end brand image. At the implementation level, Tesla has learned the experience and lessons of the first generation of product development, and will pay more attention to innovation, engineering and manufacturing, user experience and cost in the subsequent product life cycle. The balance between the two and gradually build the core competitiveness:
1) R&D and design: Tesla The R&D intensity over the years has basically been above 10%, far exceeding the average level of 5% of traditional car companies. In the field of three electric power, Tesla has many black technologies, such as the combination of high-nickel batteries and high-precision battery management systems, the first application of switched reluctance motors and silicon carbide power semiconductors, which not only improve the cruising range, It also reduces the power consumption of the vehicle. In the field of intelligence and autonomous driving, Tesla has self-developed in-vehicle operating systems and autonomous driving chips, and currently surpasses most competitors in the user experience of vehicle OTA and L2 autonomous driving.
2) Manufacturing: Tesla pursues a highly vertically integrated production model , Basically adopt the form of independent design + OEM or joint venture for core components such as batteries and motors, firmly grasp the dominance of the supply chain, and continuously reduce costs through scale effects. According to UBS dismantling and calculation, the Model3 battery cell cost is about 110 US dollars/KWh, which is lower than other mainstream battery cell manufacturers such as LG and CATL.
3) Product matrix: After Roadster, Tesla will launch a new model in an average of 2-3 years. Model S/X is positioned as a high-end coupe/SUV, and Model 3/Y is positioned as a mid-to-high-end sedan/SUV. The small but refined, platform-based model matrix with Apple's minimalist style also allows Tesla to focus more on creating explosive models, thereby diluting the R&D and production costs of a single model.
4) Brand, marketing and service: Tesla never advertises, but CEO Ma With his successful creation of the "Silicon Valley Iron Man" persona and Twitter interaction, Sker brought super high traffic and media exposure to Tesla. The "BrandZ Top 100 Global Brand Values in 2018" list shows that Tesla's brand value reached US$9.4 billion, surpassing established luxury car brands such as Porsche. At the same time, Tesla has adopted a direct sales model instead ofThe traditional distribution system uses software + OTA to provide users with after-sales service for the entire life cycle of the vehicle to further improve the user experience.
3. Tesla’s future. With the deepening of vertical integration, Tesla is constantly expanding its business boundaries, but is also facing issues and disputes in terms of production capacity, product safety and quality, and cash flow. Tesla’s future competitors are not only traditional OEMs such as Volkswagen and Toyota, but also high-tech companies such as Google, Nvidia, and Uber, as well as oil giants, hydrogen energy technology, Chinese tradition and new car power. There are still variables in the global new energy vehicle market.
1) Tesla will become a global car company . Model 3 has become a phenomenal product in the U.S. market. The most urgent thing is to successfully replicate it to the Chinese market by virtue of its self-built factories and low-cost policies., quickly seize the market , And proceeded to promote Model Y to meet the needs of SUV users. Tesla will also launch the Tesla Semi electric truck and the Cybertruck electric pickup truck. We predict that global electric vehicle sales will reach 35 million in 2030, Tesla's annual sales will reach 3 million, and overseas market revenue will account for more than 50%.
2) In the future, Tesla’s leading advantage in the field of electrification may be gradually reduced, and the core competitiveness lies in intelligence, Unmanned driving technology, data and brand. From the perspective of the development history of smartphones, the appearance and supply chain are very easy to be imitated, but Apple's profits exceed the sum of all competitors, and the core lies in the self-developed A series. Chip, iOS system, and build application ecology and high-end brand. Through self-developed self-driving chips and artificial intelligence algorithms, and with the largest number of fleets, Tesla will continue to provide real road conditions data for deep learning. Algorithm iteration efficiency. In the future, once Tesla’s camera route is proven to be feasible, it will have a great cost advantage over the lidar route.
3) In the long run, auto services and energy services will become new growth points for Tesla. Tesla has established a global direct sales store and charging network, constantly pushing new software to users through OTA And functions, Tesla is continuing to build a closed loop of online + offline, automotive + energy services. After fully automated driving matures, Tesla will also build its own fleet to provide taxi services.
Risk warning: car accidents, Sino-US trade frictions, etc.
Table of Contents
1 A brief history of Tesla’s development
1.1 2003-2008: Roadster was born with difficulty
1.2 2009-2015: Surviving from desperation, creating explosive models
1.2.1 Resolving the crisis and successfully listing
1.2.2 After four years of sharpening the sword, ModelS has become a hot model
1.3 2016 to present: moving towards mass production
2 specialDoes Sla have a strong moat?
2.1 R&D and design: the industry’s most advanced three-electric technology
2.1.1 battery system span>
2.1.2 Electric Motor Control
2.2 Software and Architecture: Cars will become mobile computers
2.2.1 System software
2.2.2 Application software
2.3 Manufacturing: Height Vertical integration
2.4 Sales, branding and service: direct marketing and full life cycle interaction
3 special features Sla’s next decade: Challenges and prospects
1 A brief history of Tesla's development
In 2003, Silicon Valley engineers Eberhard and Tabenning founded an electric car manufacturing company to pay tribute to the inventor of AC, Nikola Tesla, and the company was named Tesla (Tesla Motors). In 2004, Silicon Valley upstart Musk led a $6.5 million investment in Tesla’s Series A financing and became Tesla’s largest shareholder and chairman. In August 2006, he proposed the "Master Plan", a roadmap throughout Tesla’s development. , The "three-step" strategy:
1. Build an expensive, niche sports car (Roadster);
2. Use the money earned to build a cheaper, medium-selling car (Model S/X);
3. Use the money earned to build A more economical best-selling model (Model 3);
Fourth, while achieving the above, it also provides zero-emission power generation options.
1.1 2003-2008: Roadster was born with difficulty
Tesla entered the automotive industry with a high-end niche electric sports car. Automobile is a typical technology-intensive and capital-intensive industry, and it is also one of the industries with the lowest survival rate for start-ups. Regardless of manufacturing process, supply chain management or corporate branding, Tesla could not compare to traditional auto companies with decades or even hundreds of years of accumulation in the initial stage. Moreover, in an objective environment where the battery cost as high as $1000/KWh and the industrial chain were not yet mature, the cost of building a sports car or an economical and practical car was quite expensive. Tesla's thinking is very clear: Since the first car is destined to lose money, it is better to launch a high-end electric sports car for high-income groups, and to completely subvert people's perception of the short range and poor performance of electric vehicles.
In July 2006, Tesla officially launched the Roadster sports car. Co-built by Lotus in the United Kingdom, the starting price is 98,000 US dollars. This supercar has an acceleration of about 3.7 seconds per 100 kilometers and a maximum endurance of about 400 kilometers. The push back feeling in the initial stage even exceeds that of traditional sports cars such as Ferrari. As the first supercar to use lithium battery technology, Roadster has been favored by many celebrities such as Hollywood stars and Silicon Valley executives once it was launched.
However, due to the supply chain and technical bottlenecks of core components, Roadster's production costs are out of control and mass production is difficult. At the time, CEO EberhardUnder the leadership of, the Tesla team paid too much attention to technology research and development and performance improvement, and ignored production arrangements and product control, which greatly delayed the progress of the finished product. In June 2007, only 2 months before the Roadster was officially put into production, Tesla still had not completed the development of the core component two-speed gearbox. In addition, due to the lack of economies of scale in supply chain procurement, the development cost of the initial 50 Roadsters rose from an average of US$65,000 to more than US$100,000, and more than 30 of the 1,000 scheduled users cancelled orders due to delivery delays.
The founder has left, the high-level turmoil, Musk becomes the CEO to turn the tide. Because of management errors and out-of-control expenses, the founder Eberhard was removed from the CEO position in August 2007, and Musk personally took the post. In order to achieve the normal listing of Roadster, the Tesla team decided to optimize the first-speed gearbox to replace the development of a new second-speed gearbox, and began to cut unnecessary expenses. In February 2008, the first Roadster was finally officially delivered.
Because of the limitations of product positioning and audiences, Roadster's economic benefits are limited. From its launch in February 2008 to the discontinuation of production in 2012, Roadster has been sold to more than 30 countries and approximately 2,450 vehicles have been sold worldwide. Calculated on the basis of the price of 98,000 US dollars, Tesla also only recovered 240 million US dollars in cash flow through Roadster, which is a drop in the bucket for the development and production of the second-generation model Model S. At the end of 2008, the financial crisis made Tesla's financial situation worse, and Tesla was on the verge of bankruptcy.
1.2 2009-2015: Surviving from desperation, creating explosive styles
1.2.1 Resolving the crisis and successfully listing
The strategic investment of Mercedes-Benz and Toyota enabled Tesla to obtain capital and brand endorsement. After the Detroit Auto Show in January 2009, Daimler ordered 4000 battery packs from Tesla for testing of Mercedes-Benz A-Class vehicles, and acquired Tess for US$50 million. Pull 10% of the shares to form a partnership. In May 2010, Tesla received an investment of USD 50 million from Toyota and acquired 3% of the shares. The strategic cooperation with the two traditional car giants not only solves Tesla's urgent financial needs, but also allows Tesla to quickly learn the know-how of production and management experience and models. In addition, Tesla also acquired NUMMI, a joint venture between Toyota and GM, with an annual production capacity of 500,000 vehicles, at a low price of US$42 million, laying the foundation for mass production.
With strong support from the US government, Tesla’s cash flow crisis was postponed and successfully listed. After the 2008 financial crisis, in order to promote economic development, the U.S. Congress issued a series of policies to help all walks of life, including the U.S. Department of Energy’s US$25 billion advanced technology automobile manufacturing loan project. Support local advanced automobile technology and parts research and development through subsidies and low-interest loans. In June 2009, Tesla successfully obtained a $465 million loan. In the context of California's Zero Emissions (ZEV) policy, Tesla owners can also receive up to $7,500 in federal tax credits (down to $3,750 in 2019). In June 2010, Tesla successfully listed on the Nasdaq, raising a total of 226 million US dollars. This is also the first American auto company to successfully go public after Ford Motor went public in 1956.
1.2.2 After four years of sharpening a sword, Model S has become a hit
Model S is positioned as a medium and large luxury sedan. It is Tesla’s first mass-produced model in the true sense. It was officially delivered in June 2012. At that time, three models were launched, equipped with a battery of 40kWh. , 60kWh, 85kWh, the price is 57,400 US dollars-87,400 US dollars, corresponding to the fastest acceleration of 4.4 seconds per 100 kilometers, and the cruising range can reach up to 483 kilometers. Model S introduces a 17-inch central control touch screen for the first time, which integrates various functions such as vehicle information query, navigation, music, etc., and is also equipped withThe 4GLTE wireless network allows car owners to enjoy free system OTA over-the-air upgrade services, such as the Autopilot automatic driving assistance function launched in 2014. In January 2019, Model S will no longer provide battery 75kWh options, and currently only two models of 100D and P100D are left.
As the first high-end electric car, ModelS has been well received since its launch. At the end of 2012, the scheduled volume of Model S increased from 520 when it was launched to 15,000. In 2013, Model S's market share in the U.S. mid-to-large luxury car market surpassed that of established luxury car brands such as Mercedes-Benz S-series and BMW 7-series, ranking first. Model S sales reached 17,192 in the fourth quarter of 2015, and the current global sales volume exceeds 260,000. Model S has won the award of "2013 Model of the Year" by the famous automobile magazine "Motor Trend", "One of the 25 Best Inventions of 2012" by Time Magazine, and "Consumer Reports", "One of the 10 Most Satisfied Car Owners of 2017" by the authoritative American consumers. "First" and other honors.
Being pragmatic and focusing on long-term planning and cost control, Tesla's profitability and production efficiency have risen sharply. With the delivery of Model S, Tesla’s revenue has doubled, and in the first quarter of 2013, it turned into a profit with a net profit of 11.25 million US dollars, and became the first to pay off energy in the same year. An automobile manufacturing company with low-interest loans. In addition, in order to promote ModelS production and Model X projects, in addition to the renovation of the Fremont plant in California, Tesla and Panasonic reached a cooperation agreement in July 2014 to invest more than US$5 billion in the construction of the super factory Gigafactory1 in Nevada, USA, in order to cope with the future 5-10 year production plan.
Gigafactory1 is mainly responsible for all Tesla power systems, including lithium batteries and solar batteries for Model series models Powerwall and Powerback to meet the annual production capacity of 35GWh power batteries for 500,000 Tesla vehicles in 2020. Panasonic is responsible for manufacturing, and Tesla is responsible for battery assembly and further processing. Currently, Gigafactory1 produces approximately 3.5 million 2170 power batteries per day.
In the third quarter of 2015, the Model X luxury SUV equipped with Eagle Wingmen was officially delivered. Compared with Model S, Model X does not have much innovation in performance, and the user positioning and price of the two are also similar, and both belong to the second phase of the "Master Plan" plan. Model X is mainly to meet the greater demand in the luxury SUV market and enrich the product line. Compared with ModelS, the sales volume of ModelX is still growing. At present, the total global sales volume exceeds 120,000. The market share of large and medium-sized luxury SUVs in the United States is close to that of competing products such as Mercedes-Benz GLE and BMW X5.
At the same time, Tesla has carried out a series of industry vertical integration. In addition to Gigafactory 1, it is also building a large number of super fast charging Superchargers and Destination Chargers around the world, and increasing the number of store exhibition areas and service centers around the world.
1.3 Since 2016: Towards mass production
Medium-sized cars are the largest and most cost-effective Market segments. According to the car’s wheelbase, length, price and function, the car market can be divided into six segments: micro, small, compact, medium, medium and large and large. The industry law that the number of potential buyers doubles for every $5,000 drop in car prices determines the importance of the mid-sized market in all market segments. For Tesla, medium-sized cars are not only the third stage of developmentThe key to the target also determines whether Tesla can truly become a mainstream car company, which is of great strategic significance.
Following Model S, Model 3 has become a landmark product for Tesla to successfully open up the market. Model 3 was announced in March 2016 and delivered at the end of 2017. The standard version starts at US$35,000 and has a range of 354 kilometers, which is very cost-effective. As production capacity ramps up, the sales of Model 3 in the United States surpass the same type of BMW 5 series, Mercedes-Benz E class, Audi A6 and other traditional luxury fuel vehicles, in 2019, the United States sold more than 16 in the year, becoming the 2019 in the US mid-size luxury car market champion. span>
The great success of Model 3 brought Tesla's revenue to a higher level. In 2018, Tesla's revenue reached 21.46 billion U.S. dollars, and its net profit narrowed from a 2017 loss of 1.96 billion U.S. dollars to a loss of 980 million U.S. dollars; Revenue in the first three quarters of 2019 Reached 17.19 billion U.S. dollars, and net profit fell slightly to 970 million U.S. dollars. In terms of sub-projects, in 2018, auto sales revenue reached 17.63 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 82.2% of overall revenue, and it was Tesla’s main source of income. In terms of countries and regions, the United States is still Tesla's main market, accounting for nearly 70%, and the Chinese mainland market accounts for 8.4%.
The domestically-produced Model 3 stirs up the mainland's new energy vehicle market with a low-price strategy. As one of the important strategies of internationalization, Tesla attaches great importance to the new energy vehicle market in the Mainland and built its own super factory in Shanghai. Due to the low domestic labor costs and fixed asset costs, In addition, the Shanghai municipal government has attracted preferential loan policies. The capital expenditure of Tesla's Shanghai factory is 65% lower than that of the US factory. Domestic Tesla will cut prices into the mid-to-high-end market. The entry-level Model 3 will cost less than 300,000 yuan, and the first batch of employees will be delivered by the end of 2019. The price adjustment consists of three aspects. The first aspect is that on January 3, Tesla officially announced that the quasi-endurance upgrade version was reduced from 355,800 yuan to 323,800 yuan, and the price reduction was as high as 32,000 yuan. In the second aspect, it was selected into the 11th batch of "Recommended Models for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" in December and June 2019, enjoying a subsidy of RMB 24,750 per vehicle. In the third aspect, it was selected into the 29th batch of "Catalogue of New Energy Vehicle Models Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax" on December 27 to enjoy the purchase tax reduction. Three factors contributed to the Model3 entry price drop from 355,800 yuan to 299,000 yuan. Compared with the imported version in April 2019, the price drop was as high as 38.8%.
Caused a huge impact. From the perspective of the traditional automobile market, the sales volume of traditional mid-to-high-end vehicles in China from January to November 2019 (28-42 million yuan) was 1.361 million, accounting for 5.9% of traditional vehicle sales. Mainly ABB cars such as Audi A4L, Mercedes-Benz C series, Buick GL8 and BMW 3 series. From the perspective of the new energy vehicle market, from January to November 2019, the sales volume was 104.3, of which 832,000 were pure electric vehicles, mainly in the low-end and mid-range models.This Model 3 competition target is mainly BYD Tang, Weilai ES6 and so on. Currently, Tesla's Shanghai plant has a production capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year. It is expected that Model 3 will account for more than 12% of China's new energy vehicle market in 2020.
To achieve the transition to sustainable energy , Tesla is accelerating the layout of the new energy industry chain from power production to energy storage and transportation, including the construction of factories, energy storage networks and charging networks in major markets around the world. In terms of manufacturing plants, in order to reduce the impact of tariffs and thus reduce production costs to improve product price competitiveness, it is also For the long-term market strategy, Tesla built a Tilburg assembly plant in the Netherlands to assemble and test Model S/X for European customers; and invested in the construction of Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai to manufacture Model 3/Y for Chinese and Asian customers.
In terms of energy storage, the use of solar power to cover household energy storage and large-scale photovoltaic energy storage systems. Home energy storage products are Powerwall batteries and Solar Roof. Solar Roof collects solar energy during the day and converts it into electrical energy and stores it in the Powerwall. The Powerwall can discharge when the household needs electricity, forming an organic cycle of "storage-charge and discharge" . The large-scale energy storage system product is Powerpack, which is mainly aimed at commercial and industrial energy storage and utilization. In order to better penetrate the energy storage field, in addition to producing Powerwall and Powerpack batteries at Gigafactory 1, Tesla acquired a 22% stake in the photovoltaic company SolarCity for US$260 million in November 2016, and built Gigafactory 2 to produce solar panels in Buffalo, New York. .
In terms of charging network, Tesla's main products are SuperCharger, Destination Charging and Home Charging. Home charging is the above-mentioned use of solar energy + energy storage for car charging, and it takes about 10-14 hours to fully charge. Super fast charging is aimed at kilometers along the route. The charging power of the third-generation super fast charging can reach up to 250kW. In the peak power environment, the Model 3 long-life version can travel about 120 kilometers in 5 minutes, which is 50% less than the second-generation charging time. %. Destination charging is aimed at parking lots, shopping malls and other places, and the charging speed is the same as home charging. Currently, Tesla has more than 12,000 super charging piles and 21,000 destination charging piles worldwide.
2 Does Tesla have a strong moat?
As a faithful believer of FirstPrinciple, Musk tends to return to the essence of things to analyze and solve problems, rather than using analogies And improved ways. He believes that the latter belongs to linear thinking, which can only produce minor upgrades and iterations of technology or products, and only by starting from the essence of things can disruptive innovation be produced. This way of thinking has achieved great success in SpaceX, another startup of Musk, and also has the brand of first principles on Tesla. It allows Tesla to sometimes create unique designs and products, and sometimes it is too radical but counterproductive, often leading to criticism and controversy.
2.1 R&D and design: the industry’s most advanced three-electric technology
Data from Relecura, a US patent analysis company, as of 2018 , Tesla has a total of 408 patents/patent families. Judging from the situation over the years, after 2009, the number of patent applications and authorizations began to increase sharply, mainly due to the preparations for the development of Model SThe number of applications reached its peak in 2012, and the number of authorizations reached its peak in 2013. From the perspective of applicant countries, the number of applications from the United States has maintained its lead, and the number of applications from Europe and China has increased rapidly in recent years. This is inseparable from Tesla's global market strategy.
Compared with traditional car companies, Tesla’s patents in the field of new energy vehicles are not outstanding. For example, the number of patents related to Toyota exceeds more than 14,000, which is about special 50 times the number of SLA patents. Judging from the top ten keywords in the patent application, “battery”, “heat management” and “cooling” are Tesla’s main targets. By mobilizing limited resources to concentrate on tackling tough problems, Tesla hopes to form a differentiated competition with traditional car companies in the field of three electric systems.
2.1.1 Battery System
Battery technology is Tesla’s most important One of Proud's strengths. According to patent data, patents related to battery systems account for over 60%. The Tesla battery power system includes battery cells, battery management systems (BMS), heat management systems, cooling management, etc., among which battery cells account for more than 70% of the cost of the battery power system. Tesla has used 18650 and 2170 batteries before and after. Currently, the latest 2170 cylindrical battery adopts nickel-cobalt-aluminum NCA equipped with silicon-carbon negative electrode. The capacity of the single battery is between 3~4.8Ah, and the single energy density can reach 300Wh/kg. , The performance is about 20% higher than the previous generation 18650.
The Panasonic cylindrical battery used by Tesla has a mature application history in the consumer electronics market, and has the advantages of high energy density, mature technology, and high degree of production automation. However, facing the more stringent automotive industry, high temperature sensitivity, difficulty in group management, and explosiveness have limited its wide use. To this end, Tesla proposed four major solutions including better bipolar materials, module structure, battery management system and thermal management.
1. Constantly looking for the best materials to reduce costs and improve performance. The difference in the chemical composition and ratio of battery cells will directly affect the performance of the battery. Among the ternary materials, nickel is mainly used to increase the overall energy density of the material, and cobalt is mainly used to stabilize the material layer. Shaped structure to improve the overall cycle performance. However, too high nickel content will lead to unstable chemical composition, too high cobalt content will reduce energy and capacity, and due to the scarcity of minerals, the price of cobalt has been high. To this end, Tesla continues to conquer the ratio of battery materials, trying to find the best solution. From a horizontal perspective, when competitors made lithium iron phosphate batteries and NCM111 in 2013, Tesla has already begun to apply high energy density NCA ternary batteries on Model S; when competitors began to transition from low nickel materials to NCM622/ When NCM811 high nickel cathode material, Tesla has explored the application of higher energy density silicon carbon anode. Tesla's accumulation of battery technology has enabled its battery energy density and vehicle mileage to be several positions ahead of its competitors. From a longitudinal perspective, Tesla has always insisted on using NCA as the cathode material of the battery, and has continuously increased the nickel content and reduced the cobalt content. Comparing the latest Model 3 and Roadster cars, Tesla has reduced the cobalt content of each car by about 60% on average. According to Tesla's report in the first quarter of 2018, the energy density of Model 3 cells exceeds that of any other competing products, and its cobalt content is lower than the next-generation NCM811 cell products that will be mass-produced by mainstream cell manufacturers. .
2. Series-parallel combination and hierarchical management mode optimize the module structure and improve battery charge and discharge capacity. Tesla batteries adopt a unique series-parallel connection, and are managed hierarchically in the order of "single battery-brick-sheet-pack". For example, Tesla divides the 6831 batteries of the Roadster battery system into different sub-units (2 of the 4 modules are 23Brick/module, and the other 2 are 25Brick/module, namely2*23*31+2*25*31) The design of parallel and series, multiple series and flat panels greatly increases the number of batteries laid and the efficiency of use, thereby improving the power performance and cruising range of the vehicle.
3. High-precision battery management system ensures battery safety and improves cycle life . The Battery Management System (BMS) is one of Tesla’s core technologies. Unlike lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries have a non-linear charge and discharge curve, which greatly increases the difficulty of monitoring, predicting, and managing whether it is at the cell or battery pack level. If not managed properly, excessive charging and discharging of individual cells will cause permanent battery damage, resulting in instability of the voltage and temperature of the entire battery system, and severe thermal runaway events. Therefore, the battery management system plays a vital role in battery capacity, cycle life and safety. Since Model S, Tesla has used NCA as the cathode material of the battery. Compared with the more mainstream high-nickel NCM materials in the industry, NCA has a higher energy density, but has a shorter cycle life and worse stability. Therefore, higher requirements are put forward for BMS.
Tesla’s BMS is mainly composed of a master control module and a slave control module. The master control module is equivalent to the "brain" of the BMS system, responsible for voltage and current control, contactor control, and external communication; the slave control module is connected to various sensors and is mainly responsible for real-time monitoring of the voltage, current and temperature in the battery pack And other parameters, and report to the main control module.
Tesla’s BMS has two characteristics. 1. High precision. According to the dismantling of Model 3 by Sandy Munro and Jack Rickard, the BMS of Model 3 can control the voltage difference of 23-25 independent battery packs to 2-3mV, which is much lower than that of other ordinary electric vehicles; strong> High integration level. The Tesla BMS module integrates a high-voltage controller, a DC converter and multiple sensors, which can reduce the high-voltage wiring harness required for internal communication, ultimately reducing the total weight and reducing the cost.
Fourth, the thermal management system has a reasonable temperature difference design, and the cooling route is rich and smooth. The ability to control mild energy is outstanding. The thermal management system of a new energy vehicle mainly includes three aspects: the vehicle, the cockpit, and the battery. It performs vehicle temperature control, cabin air conditioning heating and cooling, battery overheating, cooling and heating, etc. At present, mainstream thermal management includes three solutions: natural cooling, liquid cooling and direct cooling. Tesla adopts a liquid cooling solution with 50% water and 50% ethylene glycol as the coolant. The motor and battery cooling cycle is realized by a four-way valve. Series and parallel structure. Controlled by the system chip algorithm, when the battery temperature exceeds the set target value, the battery cycle and the motor cycle are independent of each other and are connected in parallel; when the battery temperature is lower than the set target value, the battery cycle and the motor cycle are connected in series, and the residual heat of the motor is used as the battery And the cabin is heated, and the excess heat will be discharged by the heat exchanger of the air inlet. This solution makes full use of the heat of all parts in the car, makes the heat circulate effectively, and greatly improves the heat dissipation of the battery cells and the temperature consistency between the battery cells. Therefore, regardless of the extreme weather in winter or summer, the temperature difference control of Tesla vehicles is kept within 2 ℃, reflecting the strong temperature control ability.
In addition, due to the upgrade of battery cell materials and the increase in volume, the cell capacity and density Significant increase has led to an increase in the chemical thermal sensitivity of the battery. The flammable point has been reduced from about 175°C for the 18650 battery to about 65-82°C for the 2170 battery, which places higher requirements on the battery cooling system. Comparing the old Model S 85, the new Model S P100 and Model 3, we can find that the battery cooling system has been upgraded in stages. From the early single cooling belt to the current independent cooling belt for each layer, it provides better temperature control for the new 2170 battery. Greatly improve the efficiency of battery cooling operation.
2.1.2 Electric Motor Control
At present, the electric vehicle industry mainly uses three types: AC induction motors, permanent magnet synchronous motors, and switched reluctance motors. Passenger cars mainly use the first two. The motor is mainly composed of a stator and a rotor. The stator is fixed to generate a magnetic field, and the rotor rotates in the magnetic field. From the perspective of working principle, the rotating magnetic field formed by the stator winding of the induction motor drives the rotor to rotate with the induced magnetic field of the rotor winding, and the stator and rotor are not synchronized; the permanent magnet motor stator generates electromagnetic torque to drive the magnetic field of the rotor Rotating around the axis line, the magnetic field of the stator and the rotor are synchronized. From the perspective of raw materials, the main difference between the two is that the rotor of the induction motor mainly uses aluminum or copper, which is low in cost; the rotor of the permanent magnet motor mainly uses permanent magnets, involving rare earth materials such as neodymium iron boron. The cost is high. From the performance point of view, induction motors can withstand a wide range of temperature differences, no risk of demagnetization, and high-speed range efficiency; permanent magnet motors have a large output torque adjustment range, high output power and small size under the same conditions. In general, permanent magnet motors are more efficient and induction motors have stronger performance.
1. The induction motor was the "best" choice at the beginning of Tesla's establishment. In the 1990s, GM's EV1 series first used induction motors and inverters in electric vehicles. This system can convert the DC power output by the battery pack into AC power required by the motor . Since then, the T-zero sports car has also used an improved version of the induction motor. This technology was adopted by Tesla founders Eberhard and Tabenin. When designing Roadster, due to cost (the global rare earth capital is basically concentrated in East Asia, especially China and Japan), demagnetization risk, and mature technology (at that time, the manufacturing partner AC Propulsion was the leader in the field of induction motors), etc. Considering all factors, Tesla chose an induction motor as the drive motor.
In order to improve the power and operating efficiency of traditional induction motors, Tesla has adopted a series of measures including designing corresponding punching plates, increasing torque, and cooling systems. Among them, The most innovative is the patented technology of the copper core rotor of the induction motor (patent number US20130069476).
Copper brings higher conductivity efficiency than aluminum. From the point of view of the conductivity of various metals at different temperatures, at the same temperature, the conductivity of copper is much higher than that of aluminum. If the raw material of the motor rotor structure is replaced with copper, the working efficiency of the motor will be greatly improved.
High melting point and difficulty in large-size manufacturing restrict the development of copper core motors. Compared with aluminum (melting point 660.3°C) and copper (melting point 1083.4°C), the high melting point increases the difficulty of manufacturing. An experiment conducted by AC Propulsion and MIT shows that once the motor volume is too large, copper is used The finished motor products made of materials can easily cause problems such as excessive bubbles and difficulty in inlaying.
The silver-plated copper inserts are different from the traditional motor rotor structure. Complete low-cost, high-performance transformation under required conditions. If the traditional induction motor uses metal copper, it is mainly divided into two steps: inserting the copper bar into the rotor slot and sealing ring at both ends. Due to the high welding standards, the casting process often leads to difficult manufacturing and cost high. Tesla uses silver-plated copper inserts to fill the gaps in the copper bar rotor slots, then reinforces both ends, and seals the imprisoned ring pieces to reduce the difficulty of casting while improving the efficiency of the motor operation, completing Tesla's special power transformation.
2. Using algorithms to solve control problems, Model 3 applies permanent magnet switched reluctance Motor. Under the multiple constraints of cost, performance and efficiency, Tesla boldly tried Permanent Magnet Switched Reluctance Motor (Permanent Magnet Switched Reluctance Motor). Traditional switched reluctance motors add electromagnets to the statorThe rotor made of steel and steel only generates magnetic attraction to drive the motor rotor to move, which has the advantages of low cost, simple structure, high reliability, and low rotor heat loss. However, the traditional switched reluctance motor has the problem of torque fluctuation during power output, and requires very precise current control strategies and algorithms, which has also caused its delay in large-scale applications.
Model 3 makes a certain improvement to the traditional switched reluctance motor: a small amount of rare earth is added to the stator, and a control algorithm is designed to smooth the torque fluctuations, and finally increase the output power of the motor . Model 3 permanent magnet switched reluctance motor has the advantages of small size, low cost (the use of rare earths is very small, and no copper core is required, which reduces the cost of casting), high power and other advantages. Compared with the 83% energy conversion efficiency of the Model S/X induction motor, the energy conversion efficiency of Model 3 is increased to 89%, that is, 89% of the electric energy can be finally converted into driving force, which further reduces power consumption. Improved cruising range.
2.2 Software and Architecture: Cars will become mobile computers
2.2.1 System software span>
In 2018, the well-known American magazine "Consumer Report" pointed out that Tesla Model 3 had the problem of excessive braking distance, so it did not recommend it. For traditional car companies, the most likely solution to similar problems is a large-scale recall, or replacement of parts through 4S stores, no matter which one needs to waste the long waiting time of car owners. However, Tesla engineers upgraded the system through OTA (Over-the-Air) and solved the problem within a few days.
This is the most fundamental difference between Tesla and traditional car companies-Tesla can perform system upgrades (OTA) like smartphones, and traditional car companies’ OTA only Limited to functions such as maps in the in-vehicle infotainment system, it is unable to remotely control or upgrade functions related to vehicle parts such as the temperature, braking, and charging in the car like Tesla. The deeper reason behind the two is that the underlying electrical/electronic architecture (Electrical/Electronic Architecture) of the two are completely different.
As the electronic and electrical functions of modern cars become more and more complex, the number of electronic control units (ECUs) on the entire vehicle also increases. At present, an ordinary car has as many as 70-80 ECUs, with about 100 million lines of code, and its complexity has far exceeded that of the Linux system kernel and Android. In the traditional automotive supply chain, OEMs are highly dependent on ECUs provided by Tier 1 suppliers such as Bosch and Delphi (now Anbofu). But different ECUs come from different Tier 1 suppliers, with different embedded software and low-level code. This distributed architecture creates considerable redundancy at the vehicle level, and vehicle companies do not have the authority to maintain and update ECUs. Under this relationship, the R&D cycle of Tier 1 suppliers matches the 2-3 year model R&D cycle. The software updates of traditional cars are almost synchronized with the car life cycle, which greatly affects the user experience.
Unlike traditional car manufacturing, Tesla has adopted a centralized electronic and electrical architecture, that is, through independent research and development of the underlying operating system and the use of a central processing unit Unified management of different domain processors and ECUs. This architecture is very similar to smartphones and PCs. The electrical and electronic architecture of Tesla Model 3 is divided into three parts-CCM (Central Computing Module), BCM LH (Left Body Control Module) and BCM RH (Right Body Control Module), where CCM consists of IVI (Infotainment System), ADAS /Autopilot (assisted driving system) and communication inside and outside the vehicle are composed of three parts, and the X86 Linux system is running on the CCM. BCM LH and BCM RH are responsible for the functions of the body and convenience systems, chassis and safety systems, and power systems.
Do this The biggest advantage of
1. Decoupling of software and hardware, and centralized computing power. It can truly realize hardware standardization and software development and reuse, which can not only realize the replacement of suppliers, but also greatly shorten the software iteration cycle, while clearing away obstacles for third-party software development in the future. Vehicles will become mobile smart terminals, and at the same time, a large amount of computing work can be concentrated on the on-board central processing unit or even the cloud, reducing internal redundancy and making Internet of Vehicles collaboration possible.
2. Simplified internal structure and automated manufacturing. Automotive Ethernet began to replace the CAN bus structure, and semiconductor integration allowed Tesla to streamline the internal wiring harness structure. The internal wiring harness length of Model S is 3 kilometers, and Model 3 is only 1.5 kilometers. In the future, Tesla's plan for Model Y is to control the length of the wiring harness to 100 meters. Model 3's wiring harness automated assembly problem once caused Tesla to fall into "capacity hell" for a while, and eventually had to switch to manual assembly. The streamlining of the wiring harness structure can further improve Tesla's production efficiency.
Third, enhance the added value of services. After implementing the OTA function of the whole vehicle, Tesla can continuously improve the vehicle functions through system upgrades. The software realizes the functions of the traditional 4S shop to a certain extent, and can continue to provide vehicle delivery After the operation and service. The delivery of traditional automotive products means the beginning of loss and depreciation, but software OTA gives the car more vitality and brings a better user experience. Since the Model S was launched in 2012, Tesla’s software system has undergone 9 major updates so far, with an average of one minor update every few months. More than 50 new and improved functions have been added and improved, including automatic assisted driving, battery preheating, Automatic parking and other functions. If Tesla is only competing with traditional car companies in the same dimension in the field of three-electric systems, then the vehicle OTA is a dimensional reduction attack by Tesla on traditional car companies and even traditional car tier-1 suppliers.
Although traditional car companies have begun to transform into intelligence, they may not be able to catch up with Tesla. According to Bosch’s definition of EEA, Volkswagen and other traditional car companies are still in the transition stage from “Modular” (modular) to “Integration”, while Tesla has already It is a "Vehicle Computer" (vehicle central computer). At the press conference of the 2018 annual report, Volkswagen CEO Diss clearly proposed to build the vw.OS operating system and gradually integrate more than 70 ECUs of the vehicle into 3-5 high-performance processors. Volkswagen has become the first company among traditional car companies to explicitly propose intelligent transformation, but compared with Tesla, software is not Volkswagen's strong point. If the transformation is to be successful, the public not only needs to cultivate a large number of relevant software development talents and form endogenous software development capabilities, but also need to adjust the corresponding organizational staff structure. Shareholders’ support, management’s foresight, and strong execution are indispensable. In addition, the existing Tier 1 suppliers will inevitably have a fierce game with car companies on the leadership of ECU software and hardware development in the future. The difficulty of car companies' transformation is conceivable.
2.2.2 Application software
Autopilot is currently the most important application software for Tesla. The biggest difference between traditional cars and smart cars is the driving system. At present, mainstream smart cars are basically equipped with L2 assisted driving systems. No company has yet to achieve a fully automated driving system.
The vehicle assisted driving system is composed of a combination of software and hardware. From the perspective of the structural framework, it is mainly divided into a perception module, a map module, and a driving behavior decision-making module. From the perspective of the process, the perception module collects object data detected by the surrounding environment through hardware such as radar, sensors, and cameras. The map moduleProvide positioning and global path planning. Data is jointly transmitted to the driving behavior module to provide information support for the driving plan. Finally, the decision-making module controls the vehicle body steering, acceleration and other implementation behaviors.
From the perspective of the technology path, is currently divided into two major schools, one is represented by Tesla , With the camera as the leading solution; the other is represented by Google and Baidu, with lidar as the leading solution. The camera is the sensor closest to the habit of the human eye to acquire the environment. It has a relatively stable image processing capability, but the resolution decreases in harsh environments such as rain and fog. Lidar detects objects by emitting laser beams, which has the advantages of strong anti-interference ability and accurate detection. However, the cost and technical threshold of multi-beam high-precision lidar is much higher than that of cameras.
The main achievement of Tesla Autopilot is to be the first to achieve large-scale commercial use.
1. Autopilot has outstanding performance in assisted driving commercialization. The risk rate can determine the safety of the vehicle body and the automatic driving system to a certain extent. According to the U.S. Insurance Indemnity Regulations, it can be divided into six categories, namely Collision (vehicle collision, compensation for the faulty party’s vehicle caused by the faulty party), Property Damage (vehicle collision, compensation for the other party’s vehicle caused by the faulty party), Comprehensive (other non-collision accidents) three car insurances and Personal Injury (respectively paid by both parties), Medical Payment (vehicle collision, the personal compensation of the wrong party caused by the wrong party), Bodily Injury (vehicle collision, the right caused by the wrong party The other party’s personal claims) three personal insurances.
Comparing the risk rate of the same large luxury car, from the perspective of three car body protection insurances, Tesla is similar to other luxury cars with poor performance and far Higher than other cars of the same type, it shows that Tesla’s average bicycle collision rate is higher than the industry average, which also implies that more collisions are likely to occur due to system misjudgment or driver neglect. However, from the perspective of the three human protection insurances, Tesla Model S is below average and basically at an excellent level, indicating that Model S has good personal protection for its own car owners and the opponent's car owners.
From the perspective of lane keeping, , according to U.S. Highway Safety According to the IIHS data of the Insurance Association, under different open road test environments with a diameter of 1300-2000 feet (396-617 meters), compare five cars of the same category, BMW 5 Series, Mercedes-Benz E, Model 3/S and Volvo S90, and set 3 types There are a total of 18 test conditions in each of the six tests. The Autopilot8.1 assisted driving system has the most outstanding vehicle retention ability in curves and slopes, and only once has a line pressure on the slope.
Second, Autopilot has data advantages. As the first electric vehicle brand to be equipped with automated driving assistance systems, it also has the world’s largest assisted driving fleet. As of January 2019, Tesla’s Autopilot has driven more than 1.73 billion kilometers. Far surpassing other competitors, and the fleet size is conservatively estimated to increase by about 400,000 vehicles per year (Model S/X 100,000 vehicles/year + Model 3 300,000 vehicles/year). For comparison, according to the data from the California Vehicle Administration's "2018 Autonomous Driving Disengagement Report", Waymo, the leader of the lidar route, had a road test fleet of 110 vehicles between December 2017 and November 2018, and the number of road test mileage About 2 million kilometers.
The huge amount of data makes Tesla significantly ahead of its competitors in terms of data accumulation in high-precision maps and obstacle recognition. In addition, unlike most self-driving startups that use a large amount of simulated data for algorithm learning, the Tesla fleet collects all real data, with higher data quality, which is more conducive to algorithm iteration.new.
3. Tesla self-developed self-driving chip to satisfy completely unmanned Driving computing power requirements. According to the information disclosed by Tesla on the Autonomous Driving Day on April 23, after 3 years of secret research and development, Tesla has completed the design and production of automotive AI chips (made by Samsung). The SOC computing power surpasses the NVIDIA Drive PX2 used in AP2.0, and it has already been installed. From a principle point of view, no matter which path of autonomous driving technology, the ability to process and learn massive amounts of data is essential. Therefore, the realization of automotive AI requires a comprehensive transformation from the underlying software to the hardware. Previously, autopilot chips were basically monopolized by Nvidia and Mobileye (acquired by Intel). The self-developed in-vehicle chip is Tesla’s most important hardware innovation in recent years and will make Tesla the only company with auto Automobile manufacturers with driving chip R&D and design capabilities have further expanded their leading advantages in the field of intelligent and unmanned driving.
However, it is worth mentioning that Tesla and Musk have always been over-promising and exaggerating in the promotion of Autopilot driving system. Most consumers are deceived by words such as "automatic steering and automatic parking" without in-depth understanding, which leads to relaxation of vehicle control during driving, which in turn causes Several safety incidents. In addition, because the camera-led vision solution has very high requirements for the volume of object detection data, Autopilot cannot 100% transmit every physical object that exists in real life into the database, which in turn leads to traffic incidents caused by system misjudgments.
2.3 Manufacturing: High vertical integration
Tesla produces and assembles many core components on its own, including battery packs, BMS system, charging interface and equipment, motor, etc. The biggest feature of this model is that the industry chain is highly vertically integrated, and it is not easy to be "stuck" by suppliers in terms of core technologies and parts. However, mastering a large number of core technologies will inevitably lead to a large amount of early-stage R&D investment. Therefore, it is necessary to build high-quality products and explosive models, and dilute the early-stage investment such as R&D and mold opening through scale effects.
Powertrain integration optimizes the internal structure, which is beneficial to reduce the number of models Reduce costs and form price competitiveness. Tesla has always maintained the highly integrated characteristics of the powertrain, including battery packs, BMS, cooling systems, and motors. For example, whether it is an induction motor or a permanent magnet switched reluctance motor, the basic structure is a combination of a gearbox, an inverter and a motor. In contrast, every time a new model is introduced, Tesla tries its best to integrate and upgrade on the original basis. Compared with Model S/X, Model 3's body is reduced by about 20%, and the price is reduced by about 50%. In order to ensure the performance of the entire vehicle, Tesla has added more system chips to control the coordinated operation of components, and will use, for example, the Model 3 chiller. , Electric valves, liquid cooling tanks and other components are integrated into a coolant storage valve tank, namely Super Bottle, which adjusts the internal circuit series and parallel structure through algorithms to reduce components such as PTC heaters.
2.4 Sales, branding and service: direct marketing and full life cycle interaction
In terms of sales, unlike the multi-tiered distribution model of traditional car companies, Tesla follows Apple’s example , Choose to build self-built showrooms and experience stores. The site selection has expanded from major U.S. cities such as California, New York, and Washington in 2012 to 378 cities around the world, and the sales network continues to expand. Although the direct-sales model helps to improve the brand image and solve the problems of different prices and poor experience caused by the distribution links, the operating costs of the direct-sales stores are not low, and the direct-sales model is not unique to Tesla , There is no actual threshold, new car forces such as Weilai Xiaopeng, etc., mostly also adopt this model.
Tesla has a very high brand value, this is largely due to the personal charm and unique aura of CEO Musk. Musk initially created a realistic image of Iron Man, and his personal influence was soaring. The "net celebrity effect" made Tesla bring its own traffic and media exposure. For example, after the Model 3 conference, various media on social networks and self-media were used to discuss topics. The booking amount exceeded 300,000 in the first week, and the dissemination effect far exceeded that of traditional advertising channels. According to data from the global brand evaluation platform BrandZ, Tesla has been ranked among the top ten global auto brands since 2016, and its brand value has increased from US$4.4 billion in 2016 to US$9.4 billion in 2018, even surpassing established luxury car brands such as Porsche. .
In terms of service, due to Tesla's software update through OTA, the product can be greatly improved Added value, and because many problems can be remotely "diagnosed online", it can save user maintenance time and reduce costs. In addition, as the "Twitter Big V", Musk often interacts with users on social networks and listens to user opinions when products and software are updated. This close communication has also won the favor of many users, making most users feel good about the product. Some of the flaws that exist indicate understanding and support.
3 Tesla’s next decade: challenges and prospects
The first principle is that angels are also demons. Tesla is accustomed to solving problems in rapid development, but as time goes by, certain problems accumulate and become hidden dangers in the future:
1. Capacity issues. Tesla's production capacity has always been criticized. Due to insufficient production capacity, the production capacity does not match the scheduled product volume, and the delivery delay is serious. Due to the highest degree of deviation between Model 3 orders and actual production, Tesla's exposed capacity problems have become more serious since the end of 2017. The actual output of Model 3 in the third quarter of 2017 was only 260 units, which was far lower than the 1500 expected, mainly because the early battery super factory Gigafactory 1 has not yet officially mass-produced, and the manual assembly of battery packs is slow. After the battery mass production problem was solved, the Model 3 capacity problem remained unsolved, mainly because the production line was too highly automated. The GA3 production line for production and assembly has a degree of automation of more than 90%. The production of a car is matched with hundreds of machinery and equipment. The production line is too dense, and too many machinery and equipment lead to conflicts in working time, reduced efficiency and flexibility, and the surge in maintenance costs is offset. The cost advantage brought by automation is eliminated. Therefore, Tesla stopped production to maintain the GA3 production line in February and April 2018, reduced the degree of automation and added more manpower, and also opened the tent production line GA4 to increase the production speed. In June 2018, Model 3 reached the target weekly production capacity of 5,000 vehicles, and the current weekly production is about 7,000 vehicles. Even so, it is still difficult for Tesla to complete the delivery task on time. According to the calculation of about 455,000 Model 3 orders at the end of 2017 and the actual delivery of 147,000 in 2018, regardless of new orders, the remaining orders will take about 1 year to complete.
2. Quality and workmanship issues. On the one hand, there are flaws in the quality and reliability of the Model3 body. In terms of raw materials, aluminum and steel have the highest utilization rate. Comparing the physical properties of the two, in most cases, under the same quality, the strength of aluminum alloy is greater than that of high-strength steel; under the same volume, the strength of high-strength steel is greater than that of aluminum alloy. For this reason, most new energy car companies have switched to aluminum bodies in order to reduce the weight of the entire vehicle. From the point of view of chemical properties, due to the low melting point of aluminum alloy and higher sensitivity to temperature, traditional welding and other heating methods are not suitable, and riveting, adhesive bonding and other technologies are often used, which increases manufacturing costs. In addition, due to the particularity of aluminum, it is difficult to repair the car body with traditional methods after an accident. Partial or complete replacements are carried out according to the severity of the accident, which increases the cost of post-repair and reduces the user's sense of use. Model S/X is the representative of the high-proportion aluminum body. p>
In order to reduce costs, the Model 3 body chooses a mixture of steel and aluminum. According to the dismantling report of Munro & Associates and the structure drawing of the car body model, it can be found that Model 3 uses four materials: aluminum alloy, mild steel, high-strength steel and ultra-high-strength steel. Since the single-motor Model 3 is a rear-mounted motor, in order to balance the weight, most of the rear body uses lighter aluminum alloy. Most of the longitudinal beams and bottom plates are made of ultra-high-strength steel to increase the firmness of the body to improve safety. However, too many different types of materials increase the difficulty of connection. There are as many as 5 ways to connect the Model 3 body, and it does not simplify unnecessary accessories, but increases the manufacturing cost of the vehicle.
On the other hand, Tesla's workmanship problems have been criticized since the Model S was launched. This situation may be reflected in the illegible handwriting of the keychain, excessive plastic interiors, inferior car doors, and so on. As a brand positioned in luxury cars, Tesla cannot compare with similar German and Japanese cars in terms of interiors and workmanship. This is mainly due to the lack of experience in large-scale mass production by Tesla on the one hand, and the lack of sufficient accumulation in automobile manufacturing process and supply chain management. On the other hand, Tesla is too pursuing automated production and eventually had to adopt a "tent factory". The way to rework, on the contrary, affects the quality. In addition, due to the lack of international experience of traditional car companies, the Model series has not adjusted the cockpit for different markets, which often results in interior seats suitable for European and American body types, but it is too empty and uncomfortable for Asian consumers.
3. Security issues. Even after many product upgrades and various safety measures, the frequency of Tesla car accidents is still on the rise. In 2013, Tesla’s stock price was caused by frequent car fires. The decline was as high as 20%. According to disclosed reports, from 2013 to March 2019, Tesla had 36 car safety accidents, 47.2% of which were caused by vehicle collisions, including collisions caused by drunk driving, improper operation, roadblocks, etc. However, unlike fuel vehicles, 58.8% of vehicle collisions cause battery combustion, and because of the high combustion time of the power battery, it causes varying degrees of injury to the driver. In addition, the severity of accidents was high, with 9 out of 36 accidents causing deaths.
Fourth, cash flow problems. As a start-up high-end manufacturing company, Tesla has basically negative cash flow for 10-20 years due to its asset-heavy and R&D attributes. Although the high-end new energy vehicle market is occupied by explosive models such as Model S and Model 3, Tesla’s free cash flow was only positive for two quarters from the second quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2018. In order to enter the European and Chinese markets, Tesla's free cash flow has deteriorated since the second quarter of 2017. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the company's free cash flow reached negative 1.38 billion U.S. dollars. Therefore, in 2019, Tesla will substantially close its stores and showrooms and shift its sales model to online to cut costs. The hot sales of Model 3 in 2019 once improved Tesla’s cash flow. In the third quarter of 2019, the cash flow decreased to minus 170 million U.S. dollars. However, with the acceleration of the operation of Model Y in the United States and China, the Model 3 in Europe /Y speed up, future cash flow is still an important consideration.
5. Frequent high-level shocks. The turnover rate of Tesla's top executives is increasing. In 2018 alone, more than 40 senior executives left. In addition to the normal personnel transfer and administrative resignation, the technical, financial, R&D, and legal management personnel of Tesla’s core team have resigned, such as Greg Reichow and Josh Ensign, vice presidents of manufacturing, who resigned in May 2016, 2017 Jason Wheeler, the chief financial officer who resigned in April 2017, and the battery technology company who resigned in July 2017Technical Director Kurt Kelty, Chief Personnel Officer Gabrielle Toledano, who resigned in September 2018, and others. Even if executive resignation and job-hopping are common in Silicon Valley science and technology companies, frequent management changes are still not conducive to the steady development of Tesla.
Come back Look, the ten-year plan and the four major tasks proposed by Musk in the "Master Plan" in 2006 have been basically completed. In 2016, Musk proposed a new "Master Plan Part Deux", including four tasks:
1. Manufacture solar roofs and integrate energy storage batteries;
2. Expand Tesla's new energy vehicle product line to all major market segments;
3. Actively develop driverless technology , To achieve rapid iteration through a large-scale fleet;
Fourth, launch car-sharing time-sharing leasing.
If the key word belonging to Tesla from 2006 to 2016 is “electricity”, then from 2016, Tesla will be more Make efforts in the production and storage of chemical and clean energy. With the deepening of vertical integration, Tesla is constantly expanding its business boundaries, but it is also facing issues and disputes in terms of production capacity, product safety and quality, and cash flow. In the future, Tesla will face not only traditional OEMs such as Volkswagen and Toyota, but also high-tech companies such as Google, Nvidia, and Uber, as well as oil giants, traditional Chinese and new car forces. There are still variables in the global new energy vehicle market.
1. Tesla will become a global car company. Model 3 has become a phenomenal product in the U.S. market. The most urgent task is to successfully replicate it to the Chinese market by virtue of its self-built factories and low-cost policies, quickly seizing the market, and proceeding to promote Model Y. Meet the needs of SUV users. Tesla will also launch the Tesla Semi electric truck and the Cybertruck electric pickup truck. We predict that global electric vehicle sales will reach 35 million in 2030, Tesla's annual sales will reach 3 million, and overseas market revenue will account for more than 50%.
2. Not come to Tesla The leading advantage in the field of electrification may be gradually reduced, and the core competitiveness lies in intelligence, unmanned driving technology, data and brand. From the perspective of the development history of smart phones, the appearance and supply chain are very easy to be imitated, but Apple’s profits exceed the sum of all competitors. The core lies in self-developed A Series chips, iOS system, and build application ecology and high-end brands. Through self-developed self-driving chips and artificial intelligence algorithms, and with the largest number of fleets, Tesla will continue to provide real road condition data for deep learning. Tesla will have higher algorithm iteration efficiency than other competitors. In the future, once Tesla's camera route is proven feasible, it will show a great cost advantage over the lidar route.
3. In the long run, auto services and energy services will become Tesla’s new growth points. Tesla has established a global direct sales store and charging network, and continuously pushes new software and functions to users through OTA. Tesla is continuing to build online + offline , Car + energy service closed loop. After fully autonomous driving matures, Tesla will also build its own fleet to provide taxi services.
Source: Financial industry website Return to Sohu to see more
Label group:[electric car] [Car] [Tesla] [new energy vehicles] [Automotive industry] [battery] [self-driving car] [Automotive R&D] [Battery technology] [Tesla effect] [Tesla model3 China] [Battery Management System] [Tesla model x] [Cost structure] [Motor Controller] [Induction motor]