Original title: New car-making forces in China, the "top three" gather US stocks, who can become the next Tesla?
2020 is the most suitable window for new car-building forces to sprint into the capital market.
Xiaopeng Motors was officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange on August 27. The issue price of this listing was US$15, and the first day’s closing price rose by over 41%. , The latest market value is approximately US$14.96 billion. At this point, Xiaopeng Motors has become the third new Chinese car manufacturer listed in the United States after Weilai and Ideal, and the “three strong” forces of the first echelon of Chinese new car manufacturers have finally joined the U.S. stock market.
Xiaopeng Motors CEO He Xiaopeng said at the listing site: “The current valuation is all clouds. The electric car track has just started, and now there is not enough to lead a small step ahead. Value, the important thing is how to succeed in the long-term for more than ten years."Figure | Xiaopeng Motors market value fluctuation
Since this year, the share price of American electric car manufacturer Tesla has increased by about 370%, making it the world’s highest market value auto company. The market value has exceeded the US$400 billion mark, which is equivalent to 2 Toyota, 9 A GM, 14 Ford, and Tesla's sales are only a fraction of these traditional auto giants. This contrast highlights the fundamental change in the capital market’s attitude towards electric vehicle companies.
In this context, the new car-making powers from China, "Nio" and "Ideal", have experienced very optimistic share price gains recently.
Although Xiaopeng is a latecomer on the market, its products include both SUV and sports car products, occupying a certain unique market advantage, and there are Ali and Hillhouse behind it. , Sequoia, Xiaomi, IDG, Morningside Capital, Qatar Investment Authority and many other star capitalists boosted the potential.
It took Tesla 17 years to struggle from the edge of death to the top of the industry As a phased event, will the Tesla Chinese apprentices, who have gone from zero to the market in just five or six years, become new disruptors? What kind of midfield battle will you face next?
Xiaopeng to be improved
As a star enterprise in the new force of car building, Before the listing, Xiaopeng raised its original plan from 11 to 13 US dollars to 15 US dollars. The issuance volume was also increased from 85 million shares to 99.7 million shares. The financing scale reached 1.496 billion US dollars. The four existing shareholders Alibaba and Coatue , Qatar Investment Authority and Xiaomi or its affiliated companies expressed interest in buying up to US$200 million, US$100 million, US$50 million and US$50 million in stocks respectively.
Like Weilai and Ideal, Xiaopeng’s product positioning is also an impact on the mid-to-high-end passenger car market in China, with prices ranging from 150,000 to 300,000 yuan. . According to the IHS Markit report, the mid-to-high-end market accounted for 30.6% of China's passenger car market in 2019, and its electric vehicle penetration rate is also higher than other price segments. This is why new car manufacturers often start from this price range.The reason for the market.
The prospectus disclosed that Xiaopeng began production of G3 (SUV) in November 2018, and as of July 31, 2020, a total of 18,741 G3s have been delivered to customers; Delivery of the sports sedan P7 began in May 2020, and as of July 31, 2020, a total of 1966 vehicles have been delivered. In addition, the company also plans to launch a third smart electric car in 2021 to further expand its product portfolio and customer base.
As a comparative reference, NIO’s delivery volume in the second quarter of 2020 was 10,331, including 8068 ES6 and 2,263 ES8. As of the end of July this year, The total cumulative delivery of ES8 and ES6 reached 49,615. In the second quarter of 2020, Ideal Car delivered a total of 6,604. Its main model, Ideal ONE, began mass production in November 2019. As of June 30, 2020, Delivered 10,400 vehicles; overall, Xiaopeng is at a level between the two in terms of delivery volume and delivery pace.
The amazing thing is Tesla, which delivered 90,650 vehicles in the second quarter of this year alone, of which about 31,000 vehicles came from the Chinese market. Accounting for 34.2% of its total sales, Tesla’s market position is still beyond the reach of these new car-making forces, and the Xiaopeng P7, which is regarded as the rival of Tesla’s Model 3 market bidding, has both appearance and performance. However, the current market position has not yet improved. Although Xiaopeng said that the number of P7 orders has actually exceeded 15,000, the actual sales stamina remains to be further observed.
As of June 30, 2020, Xiaopeng Motors has 147 offline stores and service centers, covering 52 major cities in China, with physical sales and service networks Basically rolled out. In terms of production, the route it took is also a two-pronged approach. On the one hand, it will cooperate with Haima Automobile’s Zhengzhou plant to produce G3 models. On the other hand, it will establish its own factory base in Zhaoqing City, Guangdong Province. It will start producing P7 in May 2020, and will also use it. For the production of new models in the future, the annual production capacity of Haima Plant and Zhaoqing Plant will reach 150,000 and 100,000 vehicles respectively.
Xpeng Motors’ net loss in 2019 reached 3.692 billion yuan, and in 2020 The loss in the first half of the year was about 796 million yuan, which was significantly narrower than the 1.918 billion yuan in the same period last year. Operating expenses were mainly concentrated in R&D, sales, and management expenses. R&D expenses accounted for 89.2% and 89.2% of total revenue in the first half of 2019 and 2020, respectively. 62.9%. During the reporting period, the largest R&D investment occurred in 2019, reaching 2.07 billion yuan. Xiaopeng's R&D investment in the first half of 2020 is about 631 million yuan. It is worth noting that the sales and management expenses also soared to 799 million yuan, which once exceeded the R&D investment.
In the second quarter of this year, Tesla’s total revenue was US$6.036 billion (approximately RMB 42.271 billion), and non-GAAP net profit was US$451 million (approximately (RMB 3.161 billion), this is the fourth consecutive quarter that Tesla has achieved profitability. As a representative of new domestic car manufacturers, apart from Xiaopeng, NIO’s total revenue in the second quarter of 2020 was RMB 3.718.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 146.5%. Although the net loss narrowed by 63.6% year-on-year, it was still as high as 1.2078 billion. Yuan, Ideal Auto’s net loss in the second quarter was 75.2 million yuan (approximately US$10.6 million), and it is still an arduous task for new automakers to turn losses into profits.
Impact high-end brands still need to be of high quality
People raise new forces in car building, including The new car-making forces themselves all like to use the market pioneer Tesla as a market reference benchmark, just as many domestic mobile phone friends like to compare with Apple.
But unlike Tesla, the market battles faced by new car-making forces today are more complicated. Although compared with technical indicators, publicity efforts, and localized operation capabilities, they may not be as good. Slaughter, but if you want to get out of the high-end elite brand from the impression of domestic cars, the test of time of five or six years is still not convincing. This is not a matter of how high the brand is and how well you tell the concept story.
Cars are different from other electronic consumer products. In addition to their beautiful designs, many intelligent interactive concepts, autonomous driving, interior assembly, etc. are all icing on the cake. These avant-garde or fancy features may be greatly reduced due to several vehicle accidents, affecting consumer confidence.
In just two to three years or even a few months, Almost all new car-building forces have been frequently exposed to various accidents, such as high-temperature spontaneous combustion, high-speed failures, vehicle shaft breakage, etc., although all corporate officials explained this in the shortest time It has nothing to do with product quality, and urgent measures or compensation are taken to avoid the expansion of negative events, but the fundamental problem still needs to be addressed.
In addition to the high-income class who have sufficient funds, go Frequent early adopters to buy, change, and play with cars, it may take 5-10 years for more families to buy a car. However, there is a fundamental difference between building a car from a technical concept and using a technical concept from a car. , No matter how many new technology concepts are described, the premise is still to build a car solidly.
The brand of new powers in the car does not rely solely on spending money to burn money. Can be shaped, the best brand impression still needs to rely on long-term quality tests and user experience to speak. Do traditional giant auto companies have not been able to build new energy vehicles for decades? Are they lacking in core technologies? In addition to considering the associated interests of thousands of upstream and downstream enterprises of the entire vehicle, to a large extent, the choice of technical routes tends to be cautious, more conservative and more conservative.
The "forces" beyond the new forces
The next step for the new forces to build cars is the market siege from local brands and old-brand cars The survival squeeze of high-end transformation of enterprises.
In the Internet concept, the ups and downs of a tuyere usually talk about the survival of the fittest and the head brand effect. For example, Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng is in the first echelon and may occupy the majority share of the new energy vehicle track in the future, but will this be the case? There may be a question mark.
According to statistics from third-party platforms, all car brands currently have more than 1,000 new energy models on the market. The prices of high, middle and low end are almost covered by the whole line, and the models are also diverse. The market is more blooming everywhere, and the state of being divided among the heroes.
And an interesting phenomenon is that in the sales ranking of new energy vehicles in July 2020, in addition to Tesla's stable first place, the price is expensive New car-making power brands (such as Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng, Weimar, etc.) have made no little effort in publicity. However, from the market situation, low-end and large-scale new energy vehicles are cost-effective. It is obviously more popular with consumers. For example, Wuling's Hongguang MINI EV sold 7,348 units in a single month, and GAC New Energy's Aion S ranked third, from BYD's comprehensive sales of Qin, Song, Yuan, Tang and other models are not bad.
This kind of contrast may be refuted, saying that the new car Power is not comparable to these rustic mid- and low-end brands, and the new power’s products and services are more stylish and distinctive, but the market will not pay for it just because it raises a brand new brand and creates an innovative service concept. New energy is the trend of the entire automotive industry. Whether it is a new brand or a traditional car company, product sales and popularity are always the lifeblood indicators that substantially affect the long-term development of a car company.
Moreover, the brand car companies that are really capable of pushing high, have not yet begun to make serious efforts, just a small test of the water. E.gThe pure electric SUV model EQC350 launched by Mercedes-Benz, the plug-in hybrid model of the BMW 5 Series, Audi e-tron SUV, etc., are PK at the brand level or the level of luxury models. These traditional car companies have a very strong back-start force and a very starting point. High. It is a high probability event to squeeze the market share of new car-building forces at the same price or higher price of 300,000 yuan. It is becoming more and more difficult to run the next Tesla from China.
Nio, Ideal, and Xiaopeng have been listed successively. With the support of strong capital behind the scenes, they have become the first echelon of new car-making forces. In terms of trends, it doesn’t matter what new forces or old forces are. The best-selling products are hard power. The listing is just a starting point for these new car-making forces to expand their funding channels. The real market test and collision have just begun.
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