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How do weather forecasts predict rain?

Release Time:2021-07-06 Topic:Stock market weather forecast Reading:16 Navigation:Stock Liao information > Current Events > How do weather forecasts predict rain? phone-reading
Before understanding the forecast of precipitation, you first need to know the two basic (macro) conditions of precipitation: ascending motion + water vapor conditions
and systems that meet these two conditions can be Precipitation:
such as troughs, shear lines, fronts, low-value systems (eg cold vortices, extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones), convergence zones, etc.; in general, the size of the southwest wind can also indicate the transportation of water vapor (For example, it is found that the southwest wind at the station has increased,It means that the water vapor transportation conditions are getting better,There may be precipitation。)

If you understand this, you can watch the basic process of the weather forecast。
1. Meteorological departments can obtain observational data from the Global Observation Network every day, usually one sheet of ground data every 3 hours and one sheet of high-altitude data every 12 hours. Then merge the data on a map to draw contour lines (can be equal pressure lines, contour lines, isotherms, variable pressure lines, etc.). This is a common weather map. On the weather map we can find a variety of weather systems, including systems that can produce precipitation.
For example, this is a weather map for training half of which I drew, and now most of them are drawn on a computer.
Then the meteorological department uses the obtained data and weather maps to conduct weather analysis and diagnosis, analyze the movement direction and development situation of these systems in the future, and judge the impact on the downstream area. It also includes the possibility of precipitation.
2. In addition to the artificial use of synoptic methods for analysis, the application of numerical weather prediction models is also very extensive, and the numerical models of each company are also various, such as European EC, China T639, Japanese fax map, etc. And so on, and then analyze the wind field, precipitation, divergence, and upward movement of the numerical model, and make reference and corrections to the forecast.
3. Finally, the meteorological department will release the final forecast conclusions to the public through various platforms.

As for the hourly forecast of the weather forecast mentioned by the subject, it is likely to be directly pulled from the numerical model. The hourly forecasts released by the Central Meteorological Observatory and China Weather Net along with the weather forecast may have been manually corrected. As for those software apps, because of the different data sources, it is likely that they are the numerical results obtained directly through algorithms, without manual corrections. Intervention, the accuracy is worrying. (So ​​I still support the Meteorological Law. You can publish it when you publish it. It is unreliable without manual correction. If you don't know where the data source comes from, you can publish it in a squishy way. It's a shame...)

4. In addition to normal weather forecasts, there are nowcasts. Generally, when issuing weather warnings in various regions, a large part of it is monitored by weather radar. Combined with the data from the observatory at that time (the world may not come so quickly, look at the data from the observation station on your own land, or it drops quickly~) to determine the issuance of the warning.

。 Because there are only single digits of attention and did the almighty editor discover the answer written a month ago. . .

The answer a year ago was discovered again ∑(O _ O;)
When it was discovered that the ugly weather map was displayed by default on the Timeline of the mobile phone, My mood is desperate...
I want to delete that weather map more and more...
But I think this is the only picture...
Forget it...
Who doesn't have a young hand When it’s disabled...
Keep it...

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