Stock Liao information

— Basic knowledge of stocks|Introduction to basics of stocks|Stock learning|Basic knowledge of stocks
Mobile access:m.liaochihuo.com

China Marriage Report 2021: Why don’t young people get married?

Release Time:2021-06-25 Topic:Chinese brokerage ranking Reading:20 Navigation:Stock Liao information > Emotion > Marriage > China Marriage Report 2021: Why don’t young people get married? phone-reading

Marriage is a basic part of the family. For individuals, marriage is the sublimation of emotions, and family is a real sense of belonging. For society, long-term harmonious marriage and family relations contribute to social stability.

But in recent years, with multiple choices and desperation, Chinese people get married less, get married late, and get more divorced.

With the development of society, on the one hand, a new generation of young people pursue independence and freedom and believe that marriage is a bondage.

On the other hand, the high cost of marriage and childbirth makes it more difficult for young people to realize their families.

From a demographic perspective, the problem of declining birthrates and aging population is reducing the number of people of marriageable age, and the "main force" of marriage is decreasing. "If you don't want to get married, what kind of children will you have" is becoming the choice of a group of young people. The decline in marriage rate, the decline in fertility, and the increase in aging are each other's cause and effect.

This article focuses on the analysis of the status quo, causes and influence of Chinese marriage, and makes recommendations.

1

The status quo of Chinese marriage

1.1

Less marriages, more divorces, late marriages

With economic development, China’s marital status Great changes have taken place, mainly reflected in the decline in the marriage rate, the continued increase in the divorce rate, and the postponement of the age of first marriage.

Specifically,

First, the number of marriage pairs and the marriage rate have declined since 2013.

From 2013 to 2020, the number of marriage registrations in my country continued to decline from a historical high of 13.47 million to 8.13 million.

, The year-on-year decrease of 12.2% in 2020 From 2013 to 2019, the crude marriage rate dropped from 9.9‰ to 6.6‰. Among them, the number of first marriages dropped from 23.86 million to 13.987 million, the number of remarried rose from 3.079 million to 4.559 million, and the number of remarried pairs rose from 299,000 to 619,000.

Second, the phenomenon of "late marriage" is prominent; 25-29-year-olds take over from 20-24-year-olds as

The "main force" of new marriages,

The proportion of marriage registrations in the senior age group (over 40 years old) has increased significantly.

From 2005 to 2019, the proportion of registered marriages (including remarriage) aged 20-24 dropped from 47.0% to 19.7%, and the proportion of registered marriages aged 25-29 rose from 34.3% to 34.6%, 30 -The proportion of registered marriages aged 34, 35-39, and over 40 increased from 9.9%, 4.9%, 3.9% to 17.7%, 8.1%, and 19.9%, respectively.

Third, the number of divorce pairs and the divorce rate have continued to rise for a long time.

From 1987 to 2020, the number of divorce registrations in my country rose from 580,000 to 3.73 million.

. From 1987 to 2019, the crude divorce rate rose from 0.5‰ to 3.4‰.

1.2 The more developed the economy, the lower the marriage rate The more obvious

2013

Since the beginning of the year, the marriage rate has declined in most areas of China. However, there are differences between regions, which are generally negatively correlated with GDP, and are also disturbed by factors such as population mobility and aging.

Specifically,

First, the marriage rate in economically developed areas such as the eastern coastal area is generally low.

The marriage rates of Shanghai, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong, Fujian, and Tianjin are counted down nationwide in 2019; among them, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Shandong rank the bottom three, respectively 4.1‰, 5.0‰ and 5.3 ‰. In addition, the marriage rate in Beijing is 6.0‰, ranking eighth from the bottom in the country, which is lower than the national average of 6.6‰.

Second, the marriage rate is generally high in the underdeveloped western regions.

In 2019, Guizhou, Qinghai, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Tibet Autonomous Region, Gansu, Yunnan, and Sichuan ranked top in the country for marriage rates, exceeding the national average; among them, Guizhou Province, Qinghai Province, and Ningxia The Hui Autonomous Region ranked the top three with 9.9‰, 9.6‰ and 8.8‰ respectively.

The third is affected by population migration and aging.

The “deeply aging” provinces in China are Liaoning, Shanghai, Shandong, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Chongqing, Zhejiang, and Anhui. In provinces with severe aging, the marriageable population is relatively low. If there is a long-term population outflow, the marriage rate will decline more significantly. The marriage rates in Shandong and Liaoning were 5.3‰ and 5.9‰ respectively, ranking third and seventh in the country; the number of marriage pairs in Shandong fell by nearly 40% from 2013 to 2019. In the aging provinces where the population flows in, the “main force” of marriage is relatively high; the marriage rates in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Anhui are 7.3‰, 7.6‰, and 8.5‰, respectively.

Fourth, the level of economic development and population mobility will also affect the divorce rate. The divorce rate is often relatively high in areas with weak economic development and severe population outflow.

The long-term separation of husband and wife shakes the emotional foundation, which is an important reason for divorce. The divorce rates in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning were 4.5‰, 4.5‰, and 3.6‰ respectively.

2

Choose or helpless?

2.1

Self choice: high education, independence, social tolerance

The number of students with a bachelor’s degree or above is on the rise, and the increase in the number of years of education has triggered a "delayed first marriage effect."

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of doctoral students increased from 326,700 to 424,200 from 2015 to 2019, and the number of master students increased from 1,584,700 to 2,439,500. And the proportion of doctoral qualifications increased from 10.81% to 14.06%. The increase in the length of education and the extension of the length of education postpone the average age of employment and thus postpone the average age of marriage. The average number of years of education for the population aged 15 and above increased from 5.3 years in 1982 to 9.6 years in 2017. The average age of women at first marriage rose from 22.0 in 1990 to 25.4 in 2016; males rose from 24.1 to 27.2 in the same period. year old.

The new generation of young people pursue independence, freedom and high-quality life, and are open to marriage; especially women's realization of self-independence and the awakening of self-awareness.

Economic development and improved education have provided women with more employment opportunities and their social status has risen. Women no longer only serve as "housewives", but enter the workplace to realize their value in life. From 1998 to 2017, the proportion of girls in school increased from 38.3% to 52.2%, and women began to dominate the higher education group. Highly educated women tend to prefer men who are not lower than their own qualifications, increasing the difficulty of matching the marriage market, and the size of single women is rising rapidly. From 2000 to 2015, the number of unmarried women aged 30 and over in China rose from 1.54 million to 5.9 million; among them, the study of 30 years and over in 2015The proportion of unmarried women with college degree is as high as 11%, which is much higher than the 5% of unmarried women with bachelor degree and below.

With open-mindedness and increased social inclusiveness, divorce is no longer a topic of "discrimination".

Economic independence has enabled women to gradually get rid of the shackles of marriage and have the confidence to bear the adverse consequences of divorce. From 2015 to 2018, nearly 6 million first-instance divorce dispute cases were concluded. According to the judicial big data report, in 2017, courts across the country concluded more than 1.4 million cases. The number of divorce disputes has increased, mainly due to emotional discord (77.5%) and domestic violence (14.9%). In 73.40% of the cases, the plaintiffs are women, and 2-7 years after marriage is a high incidence of marriage breakdown. The proportion of cases where only one spouse intends to divorce is 91.09%.

2.2

Helpless: social pressure, cost of marriage and childbirth

Under traditional Chinese concepts, getting married means a series of issues such as pre-marriage gifts, real estate, mortgage repayment after marriage, and childbirth. The current high housing prices and high education expenditures have caused young people to stay away from marriage, especially in large cities.

Housing prices are rising rapidly, and young people are facing the dual pressure of "buying a wedding house" and "repaying the mortgage".

Since the housing reform in 1998, housing prices have generally maintained a substantial increase, which has put a lot of pressure on families to raise children and buy houses for their children to marry. The average price of newly built commercial housing nationwide from 1998 to 2018 increased from 1854. Yuan/ping rose to 8544 Yuan. From 2004 to 2018, the balance of personal home purchase loans in China increased from 1.6 trillion yuan to 25.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.1 times, accounting for more than 50% of the balance of household loans, and 54% in 2018. The mortgage income ratio (personal home purchase loan balance/disposable income) increased from 16.2% to 47.6%, driving the household sector debt-to-income ratio (resident debt balance/disposable income) from 28.6% to 88.4%. In reality, there are still many residents who collect funds for purchasing houses through consumer loans, credit loans, etc. The actual housing loan income ratio may be higher.

The cost of education has risen significantly. "The burden on teachers is reduced and the burden on parents is increased." The pressure on transportation and parenting has increased, causing parents to bear the triple burden of time, energy, and financial resources.

Education costs mainly include kindergarten tuition and miscellaneous fees, kindergarten and elementary school middle and high school tutoring class fees, university tuition and living expenses, etc. According to the sampling statistics of Sina Education's "2017 White Paper on Family Education Consumption in China", pre-school education expenditures accounted for 26% of the family's annual income, compulsory education and high school education accounted for 21%, and college education accounted for 29%. The supply of public kindergartens has dropped sharply, and many families are forced to choose expensive private kindergartens. From 2001 to 2019, the proportion of public kindergartens nationwide dropped from 60.1% to 38.4%, and the proportion of public kindergartens in kindergartens dropped from 83.1% to 43.8%. In addition, the current dual-employee parents are facing the problem of picking up and dropping off their children from primary and secondary schools; in many places, parents are even required to correct the students’ homework and explain the wrong questions. "Homework has evolved into parental homework"

.

2.3

Behind marriage is the demographic problem:

Declining birth rate and imbalanced sex ratio

1978 in the 20th century The family planning policy in the decade brought two problems. One was the decline in the birth rate, and the other was the imbalance of the sex ratio at birth.

The decline in the birth rate has a long-term impact on the number of people of marriageable age, which in turn has led to a decline in the number of marriages.

According to the 2010 China Census, the population of the post-80s, post-90s, and post-00s were 219 million, 188 million, and 147 million, respectively. The post-90s were about 31 million less than the post-80s. The post is 41 million less than the post-90s.

At present, the main marriage age is 25-29 years old (post-90s), the population has fallen sharply, which has a negative impact on the number of marriage pairs. According to the calculation formula of marriage rate,

marriage rate = number of marriage pairs in a certain year/average total population in a certain year×1000‰, dividedThe decline in children affects the decline in the marriage rate.

In the next ten years, the main force of marriage will continue to decrease, which may affect the continuous decline of the marriage rate. At the end of 2015, the central government decided to fully liberalize the second child. In 2016, the number of births rose to 17.86 million, but in 2017 it dropped to 17.25 million, a continued decline, and in 2019 it was 14.65 million. From 1979 to 2019, the birth rate dropped from 17.8‰ to 10.5‰. In the context of a long-term low fertility rate, the proportion and scale of the working-age population aged 15-64 in China peaked in 2010 and 2013, respectively, and the main married population peaked.

The ratio of men to women has been seriously unbalanced since the birth of the family plan, causing difficulties in matching the marriage market and affecting the number of marriage pairs.

The sex ratio (male:female, female=100) of the population born in 1982 was 107.6, exceeded 110 in 1990, approached 118 in 2000, and exceeded 120 for a long time thereafter. According to the 2010 census, the male-to-female ratio for post-00s reached 119, and there were nearly 13 million more males than females; the male-to-female ratios for post-90s reached 110, and men were nearly 9 million more than females.

3

Take an objective look at the status quo of Chinese marriage

3.1

3.1

span>Positive effect: Promoting the rise of the single economy

According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, in 2018, China’s single adult population reached 240 million, which is about the United Kingdom, The combined population of France and Germany. Among them, more than 77 million adults are living alone. It is estimated that this number will rise to 92 million in one year by 202

.

Single people generally have low savings and pursue a high-quality, high-quality, high-consumption life, promote new consumption patterns, and promote entertainment and pet consumption.

Singles have a preference for convenient consumption; Nielsen’s "China Singles Economy Report" shows that 42% of single consumers consume for pleasure, much higher than non-single consumers (27% ); 97% of single consumers will choose online shopping, and 62% are more inclined to order takeaways. In addition, the single population is younger and more educated, focusing on self-investment. In terms of planning for the next year, “22% of single consumers expect to read books, 18% of single consumers want to learn new skills, and 17% of single consumers want to cultivate their own hobbies. This is higher than the 13%, 11% and 14% of non-single consumers. At the same time, 16% and 14% of single consumers are more willing to spend more on self-improvement and exercise and fitness in terms of their expectation of consumption in the next year. money". Nielsen data shows that single groups pay more attention to emotional sustenance and are more willing to spend on dining and entertainment than non-single groups; in addition, single youth pets consume more than non-single consumers, and unmarried people account for 57%. According to the "White Paper on China's Pet Industry" report, my country's urban pet dog and cat consumption market reached 202.4 billion yuan in 2019, an increase of 18.5% over last year, and the consumption scale in Beijing, Shanghai, Xi'an, and Chengdu reached 48.6 billion yuan.

3.2

Negative effects: lower birth rate and increase the burden of the elderly

At the same time as late marriage, late childbirth has become increasingly prominent. Each month of postponing the age of first childbirth will probably affect the total fertility rate. 8 %about.

From 1990 to 2015, the average age of women at first childbirth was postponed from 24.1 to 26.3, and the average age of childbearing (all births) was postponed from 24.8 to 28.0. In 1990, the primary childbearing age and the primary childbearing age were both 20-27 years old. The proportions of one child and the number of children born were 86.6% and 74.9%, respectively. By 2015, the primary childbearing age was postponed to 22-29 years old, and the proportion of one child dropped to 66.7%; the main childbearing age was postponed to 23-30 years old, and the proportion of children born to 59.1%. In addition, the birth rate of pregnant women over 30 years old from 1990 to 2015The proportion of one child increased from 4.2% to nearly 19.2%, and the proportion of births increased from 14.0% to 32.3%.

The problems of late marriage, late childbirth, and non-marriage add to the burden of China’s elderly care, seriously drag down the country’s finances and restrict economic vitality.

China will gradually become one of the countries with the heaviest pension burden in the world; from the basic pension of urban employees

In terms of insurance funds, 2015-2019 China's fund income arithmetic The average growth rate is about 14.5%, the arithmetic average growth rate of expenditure is about 17.2%, and the pension dependency ratio (number of employees/number of retirees) has dropped to 2.53. The accumulative balance payable time has been declining year by year since it peaked in 2012, gradually decreasing from 18.5 months to 13.4 months in 2019. There are large regional differences in the basic pension insurance funds for urban employees. In 2019, 16 provinces were unable to make ends meet; Heilongjiang , Qinghai, Liaoning, Jilin and Inner Mongolia are still below the warning line of payable months stipulated by the central adjustment system. Among them, the Heilongjiang Pension Insurance Fund has continued to "make ends meet" since 2013. In 2016, the accumulated balance turned negative, and the gap in 2019 reached 43.37 billion yuan.

4

Policy recommendations

While giving young people the right to choose freely, reduce the phenomenon of unmarried and late marriage caused by the inability to marry and cannot afford to give birth, provide security and social welfare for married people, and improve housing, education, and medical care Problem: Behind marriage is the demographic problem. We should fully liberalize childbirth, which will help expand the marriageable population in the long run.

4.1

Relieve young people’s life pressure from housing, employment, and education

First, adhere to the positioning of "housing to live without speculation", and improve the linkage of new people and land with permanent residents

population growth as the core, Build a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market, improve the housing market system and housing security system, and let all people live there.

The second is to further improve the protection of women’s employment rights.

On the one hand, further promote the implementation of maternity leave and breastfeeding leave and other systems, properly address the protection of extended maternity leave, paternity leave, etc., and impose economic or administrative penalties on units that damage women’s employment rights. On the other hand, according to the size of female employees in the unit and the annual fertility status, a certain degree of tax incentives will be implemented to reduce the birth costs borne by enterprises. Accelerate the establishment of a reasonable and effective mechanism for sharing childbirth costs among the state, enterprises and families.

The third is to increase fiscal education guarantee expenditures.

Explore the establishment of a comprehensive fertility encouragement system from pregnancy health care to pregnancy delivery to 18 years of age or the end of academic education, including pregnancy health care subsidies, hospital delivery subsidies, childcare allowances, education allowances, and family Individual tax deductions, and direct economic subsidies for low-income people who do not meet the standards for paying individual taxes. In addition, localities can further differentiate themselves on the basis of national policies based on actual conditions.

The fourth is the provision of childcare services and allowance guarantee

. Extend the nine-year compulsory education to twelve years, and at the same time promote educational reforms, and effectively eradicate the phenomenon of "homework becoming parent work". Encourage and support employers and social forces to set up childcare service institutions for infants and young children; at the same time, increase the enthusiasm of grandparents to take care of generations to alleviate the pressure on parents to take care of.

4.2

Procreation should be fully liberalized immediately, so that the right of reproduction will return to the family

"Immediately" is because the population situation is urgent, and we are currently in the mid-to-late birth window of the third wave of baby booms.

The peak of the third round of baby boom in China was in 1987.The birth population is still at the main childbearing age before 35 years old, especially the birth population after 1990 is still at the best childbearing age between 25-29 years old. Once you miss the third round of baby boom, if you want to increase the birth population in the future, you will get twice the result with half the effort.

Fully liberalize fertility. People who didn’t want to give birth will still not have children, but some people who want to have three children can give birth. Don’t worry that some people and some areas will have more birth Leading to a surge in births. This kind of worry is just as some people predicted that after the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy, the number of births will usher in a sharp increase, but this is not the case. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total fertility rates in China's rural areas in 2010 and 2015 were 1.44 and 1.27, respectively. The total fertility rates of one, two, three and above in 2015 were 0.61, 0.53, and 0.13, respectively. This means that the willingness of rural residents to have children is not strong, and not 60% of them are willing to have a second child, let alone a third child.

It is recommended to let go of three children first, and make gradual reforms to alleviate the concerns of conservative population explosions. In short, it should not be delayed for a long time.

Millions of users are watching

strong> Panic spreads? 18 European countries suddenly stopped this new crown vaccine, what happened? "Death suspicious clouds" shrouded, 800 billion giants want to be cold? The Food and Drug Administration will hold an emergency meeting

What's the situation? Shenzhen local stocks suddenly rioted, and an article became a detonator? Shanghai also has big moves, and map speculation is making a comeback? See also the hundreds of billions of white horses falling limit just from the front! The 400 billion "Pigmao" responds to the six major questions. Can 150,000 shareholders be at ease? High gross profit margin, huge connected transactions...all accounted for

a huge loss of 29.8 billion! Wanda can't hold it anymore? Completely give up control of the world's largest theater, Wang Jianlin's small goal is yellow? Zeng Hao threw 20 billion, and now he leaves the field sadly

A big reversal! The U.S. Department of Defense's ban on Xiaomi was suspended by the court, and MSCI stated that it will not remove Xiaomi for the time being! Xiaomi responded: Requesting the court to rule that the decree is invalid

What a surprise! Hu Xiaoming, CEO of Ant Group, announced his resignation and has only served for 15 months! Created a big data loan model for Alibaba's small loans, and is a veteran of Alipay

Brokerage China is an authoritative media in the securities market "Securities Times" 》Under the new media, Brokerage China has the copyright to the original content published on the platform. Unauthorized reprinting is prohibited, otherwise the corresponding legal responsibility will be pursued.

ID:

Tips: Enter the securities code and abbreviation on the securities broker China WeChat account page to view Individual stock quotations and latest announcements; enter the fund code and abbreviation to view the fund’s net value.

Article Url:https://www.liaochihuo.com/info/583891.html

Label group:[China's population] [childbearing age

Hot topic

Emotion recommend

Emotion Popular