(Report producer/author: West China Securities, Song Hui, Liu Jueting )
01 Overall overview of the satellite system
How the satellite system works:
1) Provide access to user segment equipment, and achieve coverage in unreachable areas of traditional terrestrial cellular wireless networks;
2) Connect with the ground section equipment and ground network, and provide the user section with a connection channel to the Internet and other public and private networks;
3) Ground base station networking forms full network coverage. The satellite is connected with multiple gateways, and the ground gateways can realize ground networking through multiple sites;
4) The measurement and control station in the ground segment also monitors and manages the operation of the satellite through the measurement and control link to ensure the normal operation of the satellite. Satellites are classified according to their applications and can be divided into scientific satellites, technological test satellites and application satellites. Among them, scientific satellites and technical test satellites started earlier, and applied satellites account for a relatively high proportion.
Application satellites can be further divided into four parts for civilian use, commercial use, military use and government use according to different users. Among them, commercial satellites account for more than 54%, and the number is obviously dominant. Satellites can be divided into low orbit (LEO) satellites, medium orbit (MEO) satellites, high orbit (GEO) synchronous satellites, and high elliptical orbit satellites according to their orbital heights. Different orbital heights have different characteristics and uses. Satellites can be divided into communication satellites, meteorological satellites, reconnaissance satellites, navigation satellites, resource satellites and astronomical satellites according to their specific uses.
02 Situation of the industrial chain: private enterprises have emerged rapidly, and the industrial chain has cycles in succession
Satellite Industry Chain: Rocket Launch and Satellite Manufacturing
Satellite manufacturing includes three parts: upstream accessories, satellite platform and satellite payload; satellite launch includes rocket launch and launch service. The ground terminal is mainly ground equipment, which is composed of a fixed ground station, a mobile station, and a user terminal. The satellite Internet industry chain includes four major links: satellite manufacturing, satellite launch, ground equipment, and satellite operations and services.
The satellite manufacturing and launching industry has taken the lead in the order of the industry, and its growth rate has been relatively high in recent years. In 2018, the revenue of satellite manufacturing was US$19.5 billion, accounting for 7% of the satellite industry’s revenue, up 26% year-on-year; the total revenue of the satellite launching industry was US$6.2 billion, accounting for 2% of the satellite industry’s revenue, year-on-year An increase of 34%. The one-shot multiple-satellite technology in the launch link is more critical, and the manufacturing and launch costs need to be further reduced. Compared with the foreign launch level of One Arrow 60, the launch technology of my country One Arrow 20 needs to be improved, and the current manufacturing cost of a single satellite in China is 4 times that of the average overseas level. Above, cost reduction needs to be further improved.
Satellite ground equipment is mainly used to send and receive satellite signals, and to manage and receive satellite networks. It mainly includes network equipment and mass consumer equipment. -Network equipment mainly includes satellite customs stations, control stations, network operation centers (NOCs), satellite news gathering (SNG) and very small antenna earth stations (VSAT);-Mass consumer equipment mainly includes satellite navigation equipment (GNSS), Satellite TV, broadcasting, broadband and mobile communication equipment, etc.
The ground equipment has developed rapidly, and the proportion of profits has continued to increase.. Due to the continuous sales of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) terminals such as smartphones and tablet computers worldwide, the ground equipment market has grown rapidly compared with satellite manufacturing, from US$75.4 billion in 2012. By 2019, it will reach USD 130.3 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.13%. The satellite operation and service industry is mainly composed of mass consumer communication services, satellite fixed communication services, satellite mobile communication services, remote sensing services, and satellite navigation services.
Since the application side is directly connected to downstream customers, it has strong consumption attributes and is expected to grow rapidly after the completion of the satellite network plan.
At this stage, the satellite "communication, navigation, and remote" application market continues to expand, and it has become a major aspect of promoting the development of commercial satellites.
03 Status of satellites: the rapid spread of infrastructure and the assistance of private enterprises
The total number of satellite launches continues to rise. From the perspective of total launches, global satellite launches began in 1974, and 2787 satellites have been launched to the sky. With the launch of the satellite network boom, the satellite plans of various countries can It can be seen that the total number of satellite launches will further increase in the future.
Satellite launches have increased rapidly in recent years. Compared with the 69 satellites launched in 2010, as of July 2020, 561 satellites have been launched in 2020.
It is predicted that the satellite launch growth rate will further increase in the future. According to the latest "Global Satellite Construction and Launch Market Forecast" report released by the European Consulting Company in November, there will be an average of 330 satellites with a weight of more than 50 kilograms for government departments and commercial organizations being launched every year before 2027.
Low-Earth orbit satellites are expected to be at a disadvantage compared to the United States. According to CCID Consulting’s forecast, if only at the current stage of satellite manufacturing and launch speed, there will be more than 57,000 low-Earth orbit satellites in the world by 2029, and China’s share is only 3.3%. The United States accounted for 87.7%.
my country's low-Earth orbit satellite launch network plan will be further improved. According to the benchmarking situation between my country’s existing low-orbit satellite constellation plan and the US StarLink program, between 2020-2022, low-orbit satellite constellations led by state-owned enterprises will be launched one after another. It is estimated that my country will have a total of low-orbit satellites in orbit in 2022. The scale is more than 800. In long-term considerations, with the maturity of technologies in various links of the industrial chain and the decline in manufacturing costs, the scale of low-orbit constellations led by private enterprises will also gradually increase. By 2027, the total scale of my country's low-orbit satellites is expected to reach 3960.
Commercial satellites are affected by technology, policy, capital and other aspects, as well as satellite communications, satellite remote sensing, satellite navigation and other downstream applications.Extensive, high profit margins, rapid growth at this stage.
In 2019, the global aerospace economy grew by 1.7% to reach 366 billion U.S. dollars; of which, the commercial satellite industry accounted for about 75%, and the total amount was about 271 billion U.S. dollars.
In 2018, there were 114 orbital launches, 93 were commercial launches, 15 were spacecraft, and 6 were not commercial launches. Among them, the US commercial satellite launch business revenue share accounted for 37%.
Satellite technology has developed more maturely over the years. The satellite development field has mature and stable platform technology, and domestic military and civilian satellites can guarantee 100% independent research and development.
The satellite industry is dominated by state-owned enterprises and institutions, and most of the key technologies are "national teams". The state-owned enterprises represented by my country’s aerospace and military industry companies and the National Defense Research Institute have outstanding strengths and are able to achieve a whole star.
Export and launch missions dominate. Private enterprises mainly focus on the field of microsatellite manufacturing and sub-systems and parts, and their systems are flexible, which can serve as an effective supplement to state-owned enterprises.
The number of commercial companies is increasing, and the number of satellite projects is increasing. As of the end of 2018, there were 141 domestic commercial aerospace companies registered, of which 123 were private aerospace companies, accounting for 87.2%.
The number of private aerospace companies has risen rapidly in recent years, with 57 private aerospace companies established in just three years.
The private capital low-orbit satellite constellation plan has been launched, and the scale is expected to increase. "Hongyan", "Hongyun" and other system plans have begun to take shape and take shape. After the overall coordination and standardization, state-owned and private-owned
Capital will promote industrial scale deployment. It is estimated that the satellite scale in the domestic low-orbit satellite system is expected to reach 3000-6000 in the next 10 years.
04 Policy, capital support, low-cost launch and manufacturing drive, communications and remote sensing markets are expected to enter high growth rates
Capital environment: the continuous influx of private capital promotes the development of the industrial chain
The early-stage asset investment of the satellite Internet industry is relatively high. The pre-satellite manufacturing, constellation building, rocket manufacturing and launching stages are all phases of heavy asset investment, requiring large external financing.
Internationally, multiple parties participate in capital support. Satellite Internet companies not only have professional space operating companies, but also Internet giants such as SoftBank, Google and Facebook, airlines such as Airbus and Boeing, and giants in other fields such as Qualcomm and Coca-Cola. participate. At the same time, German, Indian, South Korean and other companies have also proposed networking plans.
Domestic: National policy encourages domestic private capital to enter. In recent years, national policies have gradually become looser, and the country is liberalizing restrictions on commercial aerospace. In 2014, private capital was encouraged to develop, launch and operate commercial remote sensing satellites; in 2015, private capital was supported to increase value Product development, operation services and professional promotion; as of 2018, there are nearly 200 registered commercial aerospace companies in China .
The technology of multiple satellites with one arrow has greatly improved launch efficiency while reducing costs. The "multiple satellites with one arrow" technology is currently a relatively advanced launch method, that is, a carrier rocket carries multiple satellites and sends them into corresponding orbits, thereby greatly improving the commercial launch of satellites. Efficiency, while reducing launch costs.
SpaceX's latest launch mission has reached the number of 60 stars in one stone. In addition, SpaceX's next-generation heavy-duty launch vehicle "Starship" can send 400 Starlink satellites to the corresponding orbit at a time, reducing the cost to one-fifth of the original.
Rocket recovery technology promotes the improvement of rocket utilization and further reduces costs. Rocket recoverable technology, that is, recovering usable parts from all retired satellites and other spacecraft to realize resource recovery and utilization.
SpaceX relies on mature rocket recovery technology, "Falcon 9" rocket can perform multiple launch missions, using a brand new rocket for the first launch, the price is 61.98 million US dollars, to the 10th launch, the price is 2990 Ten thousand US dollars, only 48.2% of the first quotation, effectively reducing costs.
There is a clear trend of shifting from customization to factory design. Satellite manufacturers from various countries in the world have successively proposed serialized satellite platforms, adopting a "building block" modular design, which can realize the reuse of tooling configuration system, and various structural modules within and between platforms Interoperability and interoperability.
Software unbundling upgrades, satellites can iterate in orbit flexibly. Traditional satellite development methods are mostly customized, and it is difficult to update technology. The software-defined satellite adopts an open system architecture, which effectively improves the system's adaptation to the load, and realizes the decoupling of software and hardware. The software can be upgraded and evolved independently without binding the hardware, and it can realize the on-demand loading of software and the reconfiguration of system functions on demand.
The standardization, modularization, and factoryization of satellite manufacturing have promoted the reduction of manufacturing costs and the increase of operating speed in the satellite industry. The scale effect of material procurement, the reduction of the cost and time of large-scale batch production and debugging, can effectively reduce the cost of platform development, shorten the production cycle, and lower the industry threshold. -The satellite manufacturing plant established by OneWeb in Florida uses the industrialization, standardization, and automated R&D and production concepts of Airbus aircraft to produce small satellites. In the future, the R&D and production cost of each small satellite will be reduced to 500,000 U.S. dollars, achieving 3 satellites per day Star production capacity.
At this stage, the proportion of low-orbit satellites remains high. As of July 2020, there are a total of 2,787 satellites in orbit around the world, of which 2032 are LEO, 137 are MEO, 560 are GEO, and 56 are in highly elliptical orbits. LEO satellites account for nearly 73% of the total. In terms of low orbit, the United States is the most prominent in construction. Among the 2032 low-orbit satellites, American satellites account for more than 70%.
The number of low-orbit satellites is continuously increasing. As the cost of low-orbit satellites continues to decline, countries have increased their investment in low-orbit satellite networking plans. Compared with the 29 LEO satellites in 2009, the number of global low-orbit satellites will be 545 in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 29.9%. Maintain high growth.
2018-2020There was no significant increase in the number of global rocket launches, but the number of launched satellites increased significantly, mainly due to the large increase in the number of global communications satellites launched by the US spaceX Starlink satellites.
In terms of structure, the number of communication satellites and remote sensing satellites in China has increased significantly. Since the Beidou-3 network is completed in 2020, the number of navigation satellites launched has increased less. The scale of the global satellite industry is growing steadily, and the output value of ground equipment and satellite services is relatively high. The compound growth rate of the global satellite industry from 2014 to 2018 was 3.0%; in 2018, the total output value of the global satellite industry was US$277.4 billion, of which revenue from ground equipment and satellite services were US$126.5 billion and 1252 respectively 100 million U.S. dollars, accounting for 91% of the total, and the scale of the industry is relatively large.
The number of communication satellites in orbit is relatively high. As of the end of 2018, there were 2092 satellites in orbit around the world, of which communication satellites accounted for 40%; more than 70% of the global communication satellites in orbit were commercial communication satellites.
The commercial sector is the key to the profitability of satellite communications. Iridium’s largest customer is the US government, but the government’s revenue currently accounts for only 15%-20%, and business expansion is the company’s main source of profit.
Global satellite launches in the past few years: The number of global rocket launches from 2018 to 2020 has not increased significantly, but the number of satellites launched has increased significantly, mainly due to the US spaceX The number of Starlink satellites launched is related to the substantial increase in global communications satellites. In terms of structure, the number of China's communication satellites and remote sensing satellites has increased significantly. Since the Beidou-3 network is completed in 2020, the number of navigation satellites launched has increased slightly.
05 Communication satellites: low-cost, large-capacity, low-orbit, amplifying the potential of industrial commercial value
The satellite communication system is composed of four parts: communication satellite, communication earth station sub-system, tracking telemetry and command sub-system, and monitoring and management sub-system. Tracking telemetry and command subsystem Responsible for tracking and measuring satellites, and controlling them to accurately enter orbit designated positions. After the satellite is operating normally, the orbital position correction and attitude maintenance of the satellite are carried out regularly.
Monitoring and Management Sub-system is responsible for the detection and control of the communication performance of the designated satellite before and after the service is opened to ensure normal communication. Communication satellite Mainly includes communication system, telemetry command device, control system and power supply device. Communication Earth Station is a microwave radio receiving and sending station through which users connect to satellite lines for communication. Principles of Satellite Communication Networks It is to launch a satellite into space, use the communication transponder on the satellite to receive the signal transmitted by the ground station, and carry out the signal After amplifying and frequency conversion, it is forwarded to other ground stations to complete the transmission between the two ground stations.
The first stage: From the 1980s to 2000, satellite communications and terrestrial communications were in a competitive stage. Several satellite constellations represented by Motorola’s "Iridium" constellation proposed that the "Iridium" constellation builds a satellite communication network with global coverage through 66 low-orbit satellites. this stageMainly to provide services such as voice, low-speed data, and Internet of Things. With the rapid development of terrestrial communication systems, satellite communications are fully dominant in terms of communication quality and tariff prices, and they have failed in the competition with terrestrial communications networks.
The second stage: 2000-2014, satellite communications entered the supplementary phase of terrestrial communications networks. Represented by New Iridium, Globalstar and Orbital Communications Corporation, positioning is mainly a supplement and extension to terrestrial communications systems.
The third stage: From 2014 to now, satellite communications have entered a phase of integration with terrestrial communications networks. Companies such as OneWeb and SpaceX have begun to lead the construction of a new satellite Internet constellation. Satellite Internet and terrestrial communication systems have more complementary cooperation and integrated development.
The development of low-orbit miniaturization and high-throughput satellite technology and large-scale manufacturing technology have greatly reduced the manufacturing cost of the industry. Technological advances in the development and launch of small satellites, network integration, and terminal antennas have made it possible to realize the construction and commercial application of low-orbit satellite communication systems. By introducing advanced technologies such as 3D printing, modular design, COTS components, and intelligent assembly, the research cost of satellites has been reduced, and small satellites can be mass-produced through assembly line assembly.
The development of satellite broadcasting and television applications and the growth of demand for satellite broadband have driven the rapid development of satellite communications. Driven by the development of technologies such as multi-beam, the transmission capacity of a single satellite has rapidly increased from 2Gbit/s of traditional large-beam satellites to 20-500Gbit/s of high-throughput satellites, successfully Stimulate and develop new application markets such as airborne and shipborne, and further drive market development as demand increases. Policies mature the industry chain and add new momentum to the industry's growth. Since 2014, national policies have allowed private capital to enter and other policies have promoted the continuous development of satellite communications.
The number of communications satellite launches has grown rapidly. From 2015 to 2020, China's video business is in its heyday, and the demand for applications such as the Internet of Things is also rising. Due to the advantages of market demand, the satellite communications industry is in a prosperous stage as a whole. The number of global communications satellites in orbit has steadily increased from 53 to 495, and the number of communications satellites in orbit, especially the number of medium orbit communications satellites (MEO), has remained stable.
The revenue of the satellite communications industry accounts for the highest proportion of the satellite operation and service industries. According to the SIA report, in terms of satellite operations and services, the satellite communications industry accounts for more than 95% of the year. Taking the data of 2019 as an example, among the output value of global satellite operations and services, mass consumption The total output value of mobile and fixed communications is US$123 billion, accounting for 98.13%. It is the main source of income for the satellite operation and service industry. Communication satellites account for a relatively large proportion, followed by observation satellites. As of July 2020, there are 2,787 satellites in orbit around the world, of which 1,378 are communication satellites, accounting for nearly 50%, followed by earth observation satellites, accounting for nearly 30%.
Driven by the satellite communications industry, communications satellites develop rapidly. In addition to the sharp increase in the number of remote sensing satellites in 2017, communication satellites have maintained a high percentage of launches, and in 2020 they will be launched 495, accounting for more than 88% of the total number of satellites launched during the current period . Satellite communications have always been criticized for lack of capacity and the resulting high price. Broadband and affordable prices are the focus of the development and continuous development of satellite communications.
Broadband : Depending on the satellite channel capabilities, the most breakthrough technological change is to increase the number of channels.
Parity: The price of satellite communications applications has been "halved" in the past two or three years. Due to standardized manufacturing and large-scale production, it will continue to fall in the future. It is expected to It will be less than 400 USD/Mbps/month in 2022.
Application Trends: Future applications mainly come from video, broadband backhaul and broadband services, government and corporate services, airborne and maritime services, and military satellite communications.
Due to the different transmission methods and paths, the satellite Internet delay is relatively long. The minimum latency of satellite Internet is 20-35ms, while the minimum latency of 5G is only 1ms. In terms of transmission methods: satellite Internet-related links use wireless waves for information transmission, while terrestrial communications use wired optical fiber transmission methods, and the transmission rate can exceed KMbps. In contrast, optical fiber transmission is faster than satellite wireless transmission, so satellite Internet has a longer time delay. -Path: satellite Internet access process: data center→core network→ground station→satellite transmitted to the ground station→inter-satellite transmission→communications satellite to the user’s sky→receiving terminal→wifi signal to personal terminal; ground communication access process: Data center→core layer→aggregation layer→access layer→base station AAU→personal terminal. In contrast, the satellite Internet access path is longer, which also leads to a longer satellite Internet delay.
Satellite Internet has longer coverage and lower cost. Compared with terrestrial communications, satellite Internet has relatively increased Internet coverage and can achieve global coverage. At the same time, construction and operation costs can be significantly lower than 5G. Satellite Internet can effectively fill the gap in Internet access. According to a research report published by the United Nations International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in 2019, due to lack of infrastructure and other reasons, 49% of the world’s 7.674 billion people still have no access to the Internet, and there are still 3.74 billion people cannot connect to the Internet. Most of the unconnected areas are located in remote areas, and the cost of laying fiber optic cables is high. With the Internet demographic dividend close to saturation, reaching a large and dispersed unconnected population through emerging methods such as low-orbit satellite Internet has also become a blue ocean for Internet development.
Satellite Internet can effectively bridge the gap in information infrastructure. There is a huge gap in the level of global Internet access, and more than half of the world’s population is at the stage below 3G. The United Nations has counted the population with a global connection speed greater than or equal to 256kbps (2G-3G technology level). More than half of the world's population is covered by the Internet below 3G, and developed countries and some developing countries have fully entered the 4G-5G stage.
Multi-beam technology is one of the important means to improve satellite communication capabilities. The combination of phased array technology, high-speed digital information processing technology and electronically controlled active components can achieve precise beam pointing control and beamforming; multi-spot beams can use a large number of spot beams Achieve wide coverage.
Frequency reuse to increase communication capacity. Sub-band multiplexing can be realized between spot beams, increasing spectrum utilization and communication capacity.
Beam gain, narrow the beam width to increase the antenna gain, reduce terminal antenna withholding, and improve spectrum utilization.
Frequency band competition is fierce, The development trend of high frequency band is obvious. With the continuous occupation of low-frequency spectrum resources, the existing high-frequency resources such as Ku and Ka cannot meet the huge spectrum demand gap. Many countries are currently developing higher frequency Q-band and V-band. The high frequency band is expected to become the main development direction of the next generation of communication satellites. Small satellites are convenient for mass production, which promotes rapid volume and at the same time promotes cost reduction. With the continuous development of satellite technology and applications, people urgently need to speed up the satellite development cycle while demanding to reduce satellite costs and risks. Especially for single-task dedicated satellites and satellite networking, satellite technology with small investment and quick results is needed. -Cost reduction: The development cycle of traditional large satellites is about 5 years, and the development cycle of small satellites is about 2 years. The development cost is reduced. At the same time, multiple satellites can effectively reduce the launch cost;-Launching flexibility: small satellites can be used as satellite attachments. Launch, or you can launch multiple satellites in batches with one arrow.
High throughput adapts to the development trend of satellite business and meets consumer demand. The fixed-satellite service will develop in the direction of high frequency band, large capacity, digitalization, broadband and IP. The convergence of satellite Internet services and terrestrial communication services requires wide coverage and strong communication performance. Since 2014, the development trend of satellite Internet has been integrated with terrestrial communications to cover a wider range.
Low-orbit satellites are due to small transmission delay, low link loss, flexible launch, rich application scenarios, and low overall manufacturing cost, Very suitable for the development of satellite Internet services. -Low latency, the single earth-to-satellite propagation time is 1.5ms, and the earth-satellite-to-earth time is about 15-50ms; -The launch is flexible, and the advanced technology of low-orbit satellites can reach 60 stars with one stone. It can be flexibly launched in large numbers, which is convenient for networking; -High stability, local natural disasters and emergencies hardly affect the normal operation of the system; -Wide application, global coverage, communication is not restricted by geographical areas, and the Internet of Things can be extended to the sea And fill in the blank; -Low cost, does not rely on ground infrastructure, can realize low-cost lightweight terminals. In August 2016, the fully self-developed Tiantong-1 satellite was successfully launched, filled the domestic satellite mobile communications gap. The Tiantong-1 satellite covers the entire territory of China and its territorial waters, within the first island chain, China's surrounding areas, the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean.
Tiantong satellites are commercialized to create 5G+6G integrated communication between space and ground. On January 10, 2020, China Telecom provided Tiantong satellite communication services to all sectors of the society, and my country’s independent construction of the first satellite mobile communication system was officially commercialized. The Tiantong satellite mobile communication system achieves full coverage of my country's territory and territorial waters, and provides users with all-weather, all-weather, stable and reliable mobile communication services. Users use Tiantong satellite mobile phones or terminals in the satellite service area to perform voice, SMS, data communications and location services.
It is estimated that by 2025, the sales of satellite communication terminals will be around 3 million units, the market space is about 30 billion yuan, and the entire industry chain is relatively mature, with mature products from chips to terminals, and it has entered the application promotion stage. Hongyun Project is one of the five major commercial aerospace projects of China Aerospace Science and Industry , born out of the "Fuxing Project" of China Aerospace Science and Industry, planned to launch 156 satellites are networked and operated in orbits 1,000 kilometers from the ground. Construct a satellite-borne broadband global mobile Internet network to achieve uniform global coverage.
The Hongyun project is broken down into three steps of "1+4+156". The first step is to launch the first technology verification star before 2018 to achieve single-satellite key technology verification; the second step is to launch 4 services by the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period Test satellites to form a small constellation to allow users to have preliminary business experience; from the third step to the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan", all 156 satellites will be networked and the business constellation will be completed.
Hongyan Global Satellite Constellation Communication System is a project released by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation in 2016. The system will be composed of 300 low-orbit small satellites and a global data service processing center, with all-weather, all-time, and real-time two-way communication capabilities under complex terrain conditions. can provide users with global real-time data communication and comprehensive information services.
The first phase of the "Red Goose Constellation" is expected to invest 20 billion yuan to build a communication network consisting of 60 satellites in 2022; the second phase is expected to be completed in 2025, and the "sea, land, air, and sky" will be built through hundreds of satellites. "The integrated satellite mobile communication and space Internet access system enables Internet access anywhere in the world. Galaxy Galaxy is a satellite project carried out by the private enterprise bank Aerospace. The plan is expected to complete the first batch of 144 satellites deployment in 2022, then upgrade from 144 satellites to more than 800 satellites, and finally to 2,800 satellites.
On January 16, 2020, the private aerospace company Galaxy Aerospace announced that my country's the first Galaxy space launch star with a communication capacity of 10Gbps , Successfully carried out a communication capability test after 30 days in orbit, and verified the low-orbit Q/V/Ka frequency band communication for the first time in China. In the future, "Space Internet" is expected to become an important solution to achieve global network coverage in the 5G and even 6G era. Small satellites have a relatively short lifespan, and the short window for satellite manufacturing and launch networking will develop rapidly. The average lifespan of low-orbiting satellites is 5 years. In order to achieve quick service, the short window of satellite manufacturing and launch will be concentrated. It is estimated that the optimal launch window period will be concentrated in a certain 3-year cycle in the future.
The scale of investment in satellite manufacturing is expected to reach more than 70 billion yuan. Taking into account the improvement and upgrading of my country’s later satellite manufacturing model and core technology capabilities, we estimate that the single-satellite manufacturing in the first phase will drop by 10% in a single year, and the manufacturing price of the second-phase satellite will be reduced by 10% in a single year. Decrease by 15%. The investment scale is expected to reach more than 70 billion yuan within ten years.
It is estimated that the cumulative number of satellite launches will be about 4,500 in ten years, and the scale of satellite launch investment will exceed 74 billion yuan. Considering that the development of future rocket recovery and "multiple satellites with one arrow" will lead to cost reduction, the hypothesis is proposed: the unit price of satellite launch is expected to drop by 10% in the first phase. In the second phase, there will be a 15% annual decline.
Satellite Internet networking provides full coverage of the ground, which requires follow-up of ground equipment construction. The ground station is the key link in the satellite Internet equipment responsible for sending and receiving satellite signals. Among them, the gateway station is the core component of the ground system. While the number of satellite launches continues to increase, it is expected that the number of ground gateway stations should also increase accordingly.
The ratio of satellites in orbit to satellite gateways is estimated to be 20:1. OneWeb will deploy 55-75 satellite gateways around the world, corresponding to 720 satellites. • At present, the manufacturing unit price of my country's gateway station is about 60 million yuan per station, considering the mature technology in the futureWith economies of scale, it is estimated that the unit price of manufacturing in the first stage will drop by 5% every year, and the unit price of manufacturing in the second stage will drop by 10% every year.
06 Satellite remote sensing: Dominated by military procurement, the civilian market is in the ascendant
RS remote sensing is one of the most important types of applied satellites, which refers to the characteristic information of the target object obtained through sensors mounted on a certain platform without direct contact with the object.
Satellite remote sensing technology is one of the main technologies for earth observation. Satellite remote sensing technology mainly uses sensors to detect and receive information from target objects (such as electromagnetic waves, seismic waves, etc.) from high altitude, identify the attributes of the objects and their spatial distribution characteristics, and then use the remote sensing technology platform Obtain satellite data to achieve information reception, processing and analysis.
The satellite remote sensing and spatial information service industry is the integration of the satellite industry and the geographic information industry, and its essence is an industry developed around the data acquisition and application of remote sensing satellites. Satellite remote sensing is one of the main applications of the satellite industry. It is specifically used for ground object identification, acquisition of influence, earth observation, environmental rocket loading, mapping and mapping, etc. At this stage, the main remote sensing satellites in orbit include Gaofenyi, Worldview and so on.
According to the method of remote sensing of electromagnetic radiation sources, satellite remote sensing can be divided into active remote sensing and passive remote sensing. Active remote sensing means that only the remote sensing detector actively transmits electromagnetic radiation energy to the ground target and receives the electromagnetic energy emitted by the ground target as the energy source received and recorded by the remote sensing sensor; passive remote sensing refers to Will not actively emit electromagnetic radiation energy. Instead, it receives the electromagnetic energy of the ground object's own radiation and reflected natural radiation sources (mainly the sun) as the input energy of the remote sensing sensor.
According to the type of remote sensing data, satellite remote sensing can be divided into imaging remote sensing and non-imaging remote sensing. Among them, imaging remote sensing means that the electromagnetic energy information received and recorded by the sensor is finally stored in the form of images; non-imaging remote sensing means that the final electromagnetic energy information is stored in different image forms.
According to different loads, satellite remote sensing can be divided into optical remote sensing and radar remote sensing. The proportion of remote sensing satellites in orbit continues to rise, becoming one of the most important satellite categories. Due to the promotion of the commercialization of remote sensing satellites and the rapid growth of the industrial scale, the proportion of remote sensing satellites in the global orbiting satellites has increased year by year, and has become the main part of newly launched satellites in recent years. According to the SIA report, in 2012, there were only 106 remote sensing satellites out of the 1,060 satellites in orbit, accounting for 10%. By 2018, the number of global remote sensing satellites reached 569, accounting for 27% of the 2,118 satellites in orbit. Become the main satellite category second only to communication satellites.
The remote sensing satellite market is the fastest growing market among the three major segments of Tongdao Remote. The number of satellites has increased year by year, and the compound growth of remote sensing satellite data output reached 8.3%. Following Because satellite remote sensing has a relatively strong cost advantage relative to ground measurement and control, satellite manufacturing and launching technology, and the increasing demand from governments and enterprises, satellite remote sensing The remote sensing industry has grown rapidly, and the value of remote sensing satellites has become increasingly prominent. SIA data shows that from 2012 to 2019, global remote sensing satellite service revenue increased from 1.3 billion US dollars to 2.1 billion US dollars, a compound annual growth rate of 8.3%. Higher than the overall growth rate of the global satellite industry.
The space allocation rate continues to break through to increase the market value of satellite remote sensing. The space allocation rate refers to the size of the ground area represented by the pixels on the remote sensing image, which can provide the structure, size, shape, direction, area and other audit attributes of the features . The space allocation rate directly determines the quality of satellite remote sensing data and pictures, and the quality of data and pictures directly determines its market application value. At present, the maximum spatial resolution of commercial remote sensing satellites allowed in China is 0.5 meters. In 2018, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation has developed optical imaging and radar imaging satellites with a resolution of up to 0.3 meters. , will be comparable to the best commercial remote sensing satellites in the United States.
The policy will be gradually liberalized in 2015 to promote the commercial development of the satellite remote sensing market. From a historical perspective, national policies and government requirements have dominated the satellite remote sensing industry, and for a long time it was completely controlled by the state.
The satellite remote sensing and geographic information service industry chain is mainly made up of upstream satellite manufacturing, and the midstream is for operations to obtain satellite remote sensing data and remote sensing data processing, and downstream data applications. In this section, the main introduction is the situation of the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain.
The midstream data collection and processing has been updated with technology and its practicability has been continuously enhanced. With high-resolution remote sensors, charge-coupled devices (CCD), high-precision, high-stability, high-maneuverability attitude control technology, flutter suppression technology, etc., remote sensing satellites can be improved Image quality technology continues to iterate, providing more possibilities for the application of remote sensing data.
In terms of downstream applications, the military and government have taken shape and are in a stage of steady growth. With technological progress and cost reduction, the civilian and commercial market has great potential for future growth. The current applications of satellite remote sensing are mainly for national defense and government in the fields of land, emergency security, and meteorology. However, industry markets such as precision agriculture, forest environment, and large-scale municipal projects are used for data tracking and The monitoring prospects are broad.
The continuous penetration of the new generation of satellite remote sensing data analysis fields such as big data and artificial intelligence will become the new normal of the industry. For WeChat remote sensing data analysis, under the superposition of the new generation of technology, mobile Internet technology will be fully utilized to achieve big data storage, artificial intelligence algorithm drill analysis, and then use cloud computing technology to achieve customer satisfaction. Distribute and share, and finally realize the transformation and upgrading of the data processing and analysis process, and improve the timeliness of data and customer experience.
Multi-source data integration, mining and unlocking new customer needs. With the integration of satellite remote sensing data, geographic information data and Internet data (individual travel process, network behavior, consumption records, etc.) in the future, manufacturers from various industries have stepped into the field of geo-information applications, which is expected to lead to industries such as remote sensing applications, navigation and positioning, and satellite services. Wide application.
07 Satellite navigation: three application areas, the mass market has become the main driving force for industrial development
Satellite navigation is a satellite-based radio navigation using artificial satellites as a navigation station. It is a technology that uses artificial earth satellites to perform user point position measurement. The navigation positioning signal sent by the navigation satellite determines the position and movement status of the carrier, and guides the moving carrier to reach the destination safely and effectively.
At present, satellite navigation adopts the principle of "four-star positioning", through 3 satellites, understandThe current location of the earth’s geographic location, and then the introduction of the fourth satellite as the time zero point, specifically used to calculate the time error, in order to accurately calculate the location information.
China's Beidou navigation system is mainly based on Beidou compatible chips and related modules (board cards, antennas and geographic information systems, etc.), terminal integration, system integration and related services. There are currently four major satellite navigation systems in the world: United States (GPS), China (BDS), Russia (GLONASS), European Union (GALILEO) ). Among them, the US GPS is currently the only fully operational satellite navigation system, occupying 95% of the global positioning market, and is at the world's leading level in terms of system maturity and service accuracy.
China Beidou continues to develop and its system advantages are prominent. Compared with the other three satellite navigation systems, Beidou, as a self-developed and designed system, is safe, reliable, stable, confidential, and suitable for important sectors and industries involved in national security. In addition to applying these advantages, there are still two major advantages from a purely technical point of view: three-frequency system and short message communication.
The global satellite navigation industry continues to develop. In the context of the global economic downturn and the haze of the trade war, GNSS is one of the few industrial markets that have risen against the trend, and it is predicted to maintain stable growth in the next ten years. It is estimated that by 2029, the total output value of the global satellite navigation market will be approximately 324.4 billion euros, which will double the current 150.7 billion euros.
Global satellite navigation revenue mainly comes from downstream services. The downstream market revenue of global GNSS equipment will grow from 150 billion euros in 2019 to 325 billion euros in 2029, with a CAGR of 8%. The growth was mainly due to revenue from the mass market and mid-range equipment and enhanced services. Between 2019 and 2029, the annual growth rate of low-end receivers will reach 16%, and the revenue of value-added services will steadily increase from 23 billion euros to nearly 65 billion euros within 10 years.
The development of the Asia-Pacific region will become the core. From a regional perspective, the Asia-Pacific region has the highest contribution rate. It is estimated that by 2029, the number of GNSS terminals in the Asia-Pacific region will reach 5.1 billion units, accounting for 53.5% of the global total. It will reach 106 billion euros, accounting for about 1/3 of the global output value, which clearly shows that the global GNSS market will be centered on the Asia-Pacific region in the next ten years.
2020 is the complete construction of the Beidou system. On June 23, 2020, my country successfully launched the fifty-fifth Beidou navigation satellite. So far, the Beidou-3 global satellite navigation system constellation has been fully deployed. This is a phased development. Achievements, , indicate that our country is about to achieve a comprehensive victory in the "three-step" strategy of Beidou navigation.
At present, China’s GNSS has accounted for 11% of the global market. With the completion of the Beidou system, Beidou satellite navigation system products have been widely used in important industries and key areas of the national economy Application, the global market share will rapidly increase, and competitiveness in the global market will also be effectively improved.
Benefiting from the layout and landing of my country’s industrial policies and the establishment of infrastructure such as navigation satellites, satellite-based augmentation systems, and assisted positioning systems, In 2019, my country’s satellite navigation industry as a whole The output value reached 345 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.4%. my country's satellite navigation industry chain is largeQuestions can be divided into upstream, midstream and downstream. The upstream includes basic devices, basic software, basic data, etc., which are the key to independent and controllable industry; midstream is the focus of the current industry development link, mainly including various terminal integration products and system integration products R&D, production and sales, etc.; downstream is the application and operation service link.
The structure of my country's satellite navigation industry is becoming mature, and the internal circulation ecology of the domestic industry chain, which is independently controllable and healthy development, has basically taken shape. In 2019, the output value of all links in the domestic industrial chain has increased compared with 2018, but the midstream and upstream are affected by the decline in the prices of chips, boards, core devices, and terminal equipment. The output value growth rate has further slowed down compared with 2018, and it is in the entire industry chain. The proportion is still showing a downward trend.
The output value of downstream operation services continues to rise, and the development speed is relatively fast. The development of downstream applications and operational services has strong flexibility and is also in line with the market trend of the integration of Beidou and other fields of technology and applications, which can attract mid-upstream product providers to want to integrate services The transformation and development of operators and operators will promote the rapid growth of downstream applications and operational services. In 2019, the total output value of operational services accounted for 44.23% of the entire industry chain, the highest proportion and the fastest increase.
Orbital and frequency band resources are limited, "Own first and win," need to accelerate the pace of construction. -Around 10 low-orbit satellite systems suitable for deployment of high-quality, high-capacity satellites on the periphery of the earth. According to SpaceX, within the orbital height range of 300km-1000km, under the premise of ensuring the safety of Starlink, it can accommodate approximately 50,000 satellites, which is extremely limited. The ITU's allocation method for low-orbit resources is the preemption method of "declare first, then use it first", and there will be a satellite replenishment machine after the satellite expires, that is, take first and win. -At present, low-orbit satellites mainly include UHF band, L segment, C band, X band, Ku band, and Ka band. Among them, the L and S frequency bands below 2.5 GHz are mainly used for satellite mobile communications, satellite radio measurement, satellite measurement and control links, and other applications; the C and Ku frequency bands are mainly used for satellite fixed service communications and are nearly saturated. The Ka frequency band is being used Put into use a lot. In the high-orbit system, 90% of the C and Ku frequency bands in the world are controlled by a few operators; the mainstream Ka frequency band has also been put into use in large numbers, and frequency coordination has become increasingly difficult.
The number of satellite launches in my country is still at a disadvantage at this stage, and the launch speed needs to be improved. According to CCID Consulting’s information, it is estimated that there will be 1,900 low-Earth orbit satellites in China in 2029, accounting for only 3.33% of the world’s total. Compared with the United States’ 87.72% of satellites, it is clearly in the Disadvantages, the construction needs to be further accelerated. Satellite navigation mainly has three application areas: industry market, mass market and special market. Among them, the industry market is mainly used in transportation, power applications, agriculture and other government uses; the mass market is mainly used in consumer areas such as the Internet of Vehicles, smart phones, and wearable devices; special markets It mainly focuses on military fields such as public security, maritime distress search and rescue, and military strikes.
With technological innovation and demand growth, the mass market will become the main market that drives the development of the satellite industry. Whether it is GPS, GLONSS or Beidou, it was originally designed for military purposes, and then gradually promoted to civilian fields such as location services, transportation, surveying and mapping geographic information, agriculture, power dispatch, emergency search and rescue, and the scale of the civilian market far exceeds Military market. According to GSA data, the most downstream applications of satellite navigation are in road services and location services, accounting for 55% and 38.3%, respectively, followed by surveying and mapping and agriculture, accounting for 2.4% and 1.4%, respectively. Beidou applications account for approximately 25% of the domestic market and continue to increase. Beidou compatible applications have become the mainstream application form in the domestic civilian market.
"Beidou+" and "+Beidou" have further developed, and the integration of communication and navigation has become the main solution for broadening applications. The current Beidou application and industrialization development has fully entered a new stage of technology integration, application integration and industrial integration, and the market has further developed in depth and breadth, and has formed "Beidou+" and "Beidou+" and " +Beidou" two major application scenarios. At the same time, integration of communication and navigation is the main direction of technological breakthroughs, and the ability to build services for billions of users of the mobile Internet, the Internet of Vehicles and the Internet of Things is also constantly improving.
High precision and systemization are the future development trends. From the perspective of national security and strategic economic applications, improving the accuracy of satellite navigation and positioning is the general trend. At present, the Beidou ground-based enhancement system has been completed, and the wide-area precision positioning system has been fully launched to meet the needs of high-precision location and time services. Unified technical standards, multi-function services, and information interconnection are the guarantee for the rapid promotion of high-precision applications in the future.
See the original report for details.
(This article is for reference only and does not represent any of our investment advice. For relevant information, please refer to the original report.)