Red Weekly Reporter | Cao Jingxue
As the largest active equity fund at the end of the first quarter, Invesco was announced on May 17 to participate in the non-public offering of shares. The "latest" scale of Great Wall's emerging growth is exposed. According to calculations, the size of the fund has reached 58.5 billion yuan, a 8.8 billion yuan increase from the end of the first quarter, and Liu Yanchun's own management of the fund is likely to exceed 120 billion. With the rising of the star fund manager’s management scale, Zhang Kun and Liu Yanchun have joined hands to start the era of top 100 billion public offerings, but the growth in volume has also allowed top stars to accelerate the process of abandoning small-cap stocks and choose to firmly embrace core assets. Blue-chip targets of this kind have become a consensus.
According to the statistics of "Red Weekly" reporters, many tens of billions of funds have long-term heavy holdings, and these targets even started to hold heavy holdings when the product was not well-known a few years ago, such as E Fund Funds such as small and medium caps, Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth and China Huitianfu Consumer Industry have been holding Moutai continuously for more than 3 years. Among them, E Fund's small and medium-sized caps opened a continuous heavy position in Moutai when the scale of 2013 was only about 2 billion.
From the perspective of Shigekura stocks, there is a lot of overlap between the long-term holdings of public funds and the targets of "grouping and warming". Most of them belong to the category of core assets, including "Mao Wulu" and other liquor leaders. , Midea, Gree and other home appliances leaders, Aier Ophthalmology and Changchun High-tech and other medical leaders.
Core assets in the past three years, "Dog Screen" public offering of ten major positions
After a short shock adjustment, this week, the core assets staged a counterattack in the A-share market for three consecutive trading days. According to "Red Weekly" reporter statistics, among the 3,413 active equity funds, 247 have already set a record high net value on May 26. As their core assets fly again, their sticking to their core assets is finally waiting to see the light of day. Funds that have been controversial during this year's "group stock" callback, including E Fund Blue Chip Selection and Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth, have also used the opportunity of counterattack to quickly regain lost ground.
The dazzling performance of public offering funds in the past two trading days may not be due to the short-term exchange of positions. Their long-term holdings may have contributed a lot to some extent. Take Zhang Dongyi, GF's "goddess of consumption" as an example. The net value growth rate of many GF Juyou products under her management exceeded 3.5 percentage points on May 25. Among GF Juyou’s heavy stocks, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, and China CDF and other stocks with the highest gains have been held by her for more than 3 quarters. Among them, Kweichow Moutai has been held by her for 14 consecutively. Quarter.
The situation similar to Zhang Dongyi is not an isolated case. Among the 12 funds with a management scale of more than 10 billion yuan and established for more than 3 years according to the "Red Weekly" reporter, Yifangda small and medium-sized funds, Invesco Great Wall Xinxing Growth, Huitianfu's consumer industry and Fortune's Tianhui Selection Growth have been in Kweichow Moutai for more than 12 consecutive quarters.
Zhang Kun managed the Yi Fangda small and medium-sized cap, which is the longest product of Moutai in continuous storage, for 32 quarters. Since June 30, 2013, Kweichow Moutai has appeared in the fund's heavy holdings. By the end of the latest reporting period, that is, at the end of the first quarter of this year, Zhang Kun continued to continue his heavy holdings of Kweichow Moutai. As of the close on May 26, Kweichow Moutai's share price has risen by about 15 times during the period.
In addition to Kweichow Moutai, according to the "Red Weekly" reporter statistics, the targets commonly held by tens of billions of public funds for a long time are Wuliangye, which belongs to the liquor sector, and Gree Electric, which belong to the Luzhou Laojiao, and home appliance sectors. Midea Group and Supor, Aier Ophthalmology, Changchun High-tech and Tigermed in the field of medicine, Insurance leader China Ping An, commercial bank leader China Merchants Bank, real estate company Poly Real Estate, security leader Hikvision, photovoltaic leader Longji shares and Yili shares in the dairy sector.
From the nature of the target, it is not difficult to see that the long-term stock holdings selected by the public offering funds are basically the same as the "group stocks" in the general sense, and are basically under the category of core assets. Although stock prices in the secondary market inevitably fluctuate, as of the close of May 26, the above 13 stocks have all achieved gains in the past three years. Among them, pharmaceutical stocks and liquor stocks have the highest gains. Tigermed, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao And Aier Ophthalmology both increased by more than 3 times; while the performance of home appliances, real estate and insurance in the past three years was relatively weak. Gree Electric, Ping An of China and Poly Real Estate increased by 32.67%, 29.76% and 21.92% respectively.
In this regard, the chairman of the tens of billions private equity Yiluo Investment once said in an interview with a reporter from "Red Weekly": It gradually emerged. Leading companies have long-term competitive advantages such as brand, cost, and barriers, and the certainty is relatively clear. As for the choice of long-term stock holdings, Wang Liang, director of the research department of Minsheng+Bank, also told the reporter of "Red Weekly": "My The investment strategy is to choose leading companies in various industries to hold for a long time. However, there will be no lock-up at the moment, and investments will be made by focusing on changes in the fundamentals of quality companies. ”
Attached table: List of long-term holdings of tens of billions of public offerings
Top-stream fund managers have their own "good hearts"
Differentiated adherence to achieve extraordinary performance
Except for long-term stock holdings that have consensus , There are also fund managers with their own "unique" long-term stock holdings. For example, CEIBS Times Pioneer managed by Zhou Yingbo has been in charge of Guodian Nanrui for 17 consecutive quarters; and since the third quarter of 2014, the wealthy Tianhui managed by Zhu Shaoxing has grown continuously In the 27 quarters, Guoci Materials has been heavily stocked. From the perspective of market performance, the growth rate of Guoci Materials is quite eye-catching. The stock has increased by 275% in the past three years, and Zhu Shaoxing’s floating profit since his heavy warehouse has exceeded 6 times.
According to data, Fortune Tianhui Growth was established in November 2005. The fund has been managed by Zhu Shaoxing since its establishment. In the field of public offerings, such examples of Wang Yawei’s China market are relatively rare, especially So far, Zhu has devoted all his time to this fund. Therefore, it can be said that the heavy warehouse stocks including Guoci Materials have witnessed this story of Fortune Tianhui.
The reporter of "Red Weekly" found that in 2009 For more than 4 years from the third quarter of the year to the end of the fourth quarter of 2013, Fortune Tianhui Growth has long held large positions in the information service company Shiji Information. During the holding process, the company’s stock price has also doubled. However, at this stage, the company’s stock price has not been able to replicate the trend at that time. The increase in the past three years is only 17.28%.
In fact, the overall situation of the information service industry at this stage is also underperforming. As of 5 At the close of the market on 26th, the China Securities Index Information Service Index has fallen by nearly 30% in the past three years. In addition, from the second quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2014, real estate stock Xinhu Zhongbao also dominated the growth of Fortune Tianhui Heavily held stocks, and never appeared in the fund’s heavy holdings. On the one hand, the real estate as a whole has entered the silver age from the golden age, and in this process, the leading companies are often more concerned by the fund.
From Zhu Shaoxing’s heavy holdings, we can not only see the changes in the nature of his long-term holdings, but also see the penetration of his long-term holding strategies regardless of the size of the fund. A reporter from "Red Weekly" found that from 2009 to 2013 During the year, the size of the fund was between 2 billion and 5 billion, but fund managers have begun to practice long-term shareholding strategies.
And Zhu Shaoxing said in the latest quarterly report: “At the level of individual stock selection, The fund prefers to invest in companies with good corporate genes, complete corporate governance structures and excellent management. We do not have the reliable ability to accurately predict short-term market trends. Instead, we concentrate our energy on patiently collecting outstanding companies with great prospects, waiting for the realization of the company's own value creation and the cyclical return of market sentiment at a certain point in the future. ”
There are many examples of Xinshui stocks moving forward with star fund products. Zhang Kun is also one of them. At the beginning of E Fund’s small and medium-sized stocks in Kweichow Moutai, the size of the fund was only about 2 billion. After the fund size exceeded 5 billion in 2018, his holding of Kweichow Moutai has also been maintained at more than 1 million shares..
The core assets of the era of explosive equity will become the top-flow standard
Long-term holding is the choice of fund managers to practice value investment. Increasingly, this trend becomes more and more clear. According to the statistics of "Red Weekly" reporters, at the end of the first quarter of this year, there were 48 active equity funds with a scale of more than 10 billion yuan. In the same period of 2019, there were only a handful of 10 billion public offering funds. The largest single product has also changed from Xingquan’s 32.475 billion yuan to Invesco Great Wall’s emerging growth of 49.669 billion yuan.
As the scale increases, the target of a public fund can only be selected among large market capitalization companies. Take the emerging growth of Invesco Great Wall managed by Liu Yanchun as an example. The fund's stock investment market value was 47.06 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter of this year. The market value of Gujing Gongjiu, which is the last of its top ten stocks, has reached 19.98. 100 million yuan. According to the statistics of "Red Weekly" reporters, among the 4,319 listed companies currently on the market, more than 3,561 companies have a market value of less than 19.998 billion yuan, which means that the market value of Invesco Great Wall's tenth largest emerging growth stock is all It has exceeded 10% of their market value, and such small market capitalization stocks cannot meet the criteria for being heavily invested by large-scale funds.
In addition to the limited selection of the target, the increase in the size of the fund also has a practical impact on the operation of the fund manager. In the article "A-Shares Entering a New Era of "Passive Investment"" published by "Red Weekly", it also pointed out: "From a practical perspective, when managing tens of billions of funds, some single-day turnover Stocks below 100 million yuan are basically bought cautiously or given up. Because once bought, the stock may rise by 5 points or even 10 points, which raises the cost of buying and holding positions, and it is difficult to exit. Therefore, institutional funds have to buy large market capitalization stocks with sufficient trading volume."
As the manager of large-scale funds, Xie Zhiyu also admitted to "Red Weekly": "When the size of funds reaches a certain level "Passive investment" is more effective in terms of rate and scale. This is the trajectory of overseas development, and we may also develop along this trajectory."
In addition, well-known fund analyst Chang Yu A reporter from "Red Weekly" said: "As the size of the fund increases, it is necessary to choose a larger market capitalization target with better liquidity. In the case of limited selection of targets in the market, many celebrity public offering products will also have the same rate of return. For them, it is not easy to obtain excess returns in the short term, but long-term investment in high-quality targets still has a great opportunity to outperform the market."
The investment of the times is also a major test for fund managers. At this time, fund managers with long management periods can fully reflect their experience advantages; and fund managers who have achieved beautiful performance through short-term games will also suffer from insufficient experience when their scale becomes larger. It’s difficult to consistently beat the market."
(The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only examples of analysis, no trading recommendations.)