We can see from the semi-annual report of the fund that in the second quarter of 2017, the ratio of the stock market value of heavy stocks in the liquor sector to the market value of the fund's stock investment (heavy warehouse caliber) was 5.81%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points compared with 17Q1. The liquor sector accounted for all A shares. The proportion of the circulating market value was 2.75%, an increase of 0.4% compared with 17Q1, the allocation coefficient of the liquor sector was 2.11, and the sector was in a state of overweight.
Since 2009, the allocation coefficient of the liquor sector has reached a high of 4.39 in 12Q1 and a low of 0.52 in 15Q1, with an average level of 2.15. Since 15Q4, the allocation coefficient of the liquor sector has gradually increased, and the current allocation coefficient is slightly lower than the average level.
In the last boom of the liquor industry, from 09Q4 to 12Q4, the allocation coefficient of the liquor sector was higher than the current allocation level, reaching a maximum of 4.39.
Therefore, although the liquor sector is currently over-provisioned, it is still within a reasonable range, and there is still room for improvement in the sector allocation ratio.
Let's analyze the capital in and out of Moutai from the Northbound capital dynamics of Shanghai Stock Connect. Only last week, Shanghai Stock Connect bought Maotai at a net 626 million yuan.
This is also the direct cause of Maotai's strong pull up after its correction of 442 yuan. Shanghai Stock Connect dared to continue to buy Moutai at a high level of more than 440 yuan, which is by no means short-term, and it has far-reaching significance.
We call these funds smart funds. Their trends may reveal the strategic purpose of foreign investment in the placement of high-quality stocks in the A-share market.
According to the daily top ten active stock data of Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect, last week, a total of 39 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect appeared in the top ten daily active stocks of Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect respectively. Among them, there are 20 stocks subject to Shanghai Stock Connect and 19 stocks subject to Shenzhen Stock Connect.
Judging from the number of times on the list, 9 stocks including Ping An, Wuliangye, Ping An Bank, Midea Group, Hengrui Medicine, Hikvision, Kweichow Moutai, Gree Electric, and Dahua shares have all been listed 5 times during the period. Second, it has become a relatively active stock of "smart funds" trading recently.
From the analysis of the positions of the above institutions, Moutai is still the favorite of funds, ranking third in the TOP20. And there is a trend of further Masukura.
Let's analyze the market performance of Moutai again, and see more intuitively that the stock price rise has its solid spot market foundation.
Although July is the off-season for liquor, the current liquor prices continue to show that the off-season is not low, and the fundamentals of liquor still have a continuous cycle of at least 2 to 3 years. The reason is that the increase in channel inventory and other factors have not occurred on a large scale. There is still room for substantial improvement in corporate profitability.
It is expected that the peak consumption season after mid-August will catalyze further price increases. The current shortage of Moutai is not what the manufacturers can expect. Especially with the arrival of the traditional peak season in the third and fourth quarters, a bottle of Moutai will be hard to find. We also got this proof at the dealer.
"Since the beginning of this year, Moutai Distillery has been very strict with the sales card. The terminal price must not exceed 1299 yuan/bottle, and the distributor's wholesale price must not exceed 1,199 yuan/bottle. But now the market simply cannot get the goods at this price. We fry the price of the goods above 1450 yuan/bottle. If we sell at the reserve price and lose money, simply do not sell the goods, or do not mark the price, if we buy it, we will tell you to sell it at 1500 yuan, and there is no ticket. Dealers can see this The demand is in short supply, and we are all waiting until the Spring Festival peak season to sell at a good price."
The distributor said frankly: The current market mentality is contradictory. If you sell high, you are afraid that manufacturers will crack down on it. If you sell low, you are unwilling to do so.They simply stopped selling, forming a scene where the confession was cut off all over the country.
Nowadays, the traditional demand for liquor is still in the off-season, but the off-season is not visible at all. Demand remains strong. For large distributors, a bottle of Moutai 53° Feitian can make a profit of five to six hundred yuan. With the arrival of various festivals in the later period, the price may continue to rise. "
"The market is changing too fast. Last year, the price of Maotai 53° Feitian was still more than 800 yuan per bottle. Now the actual market price of each bottle has reached 1,500 yuan to 1,600 yuan." The dealer said helplessly.
We judge that Moutai will continue to be out of stock. The fundamental reason is the imbalance between supply and demand, the demand is high, and the supply is insufficient, so the price will continue to rise. A dealer asserted that the retail price of Moutai for the Spring Festival in 2018 was RMB 2,000. It does not seem impossible now.
Looking back at Moutai's price increase process, we noticed that since the second half of 2016, the domestic alcohol industry has ended a three-year downturn. Well-known liquor companies headed by Kweichow Moutai have not only soared their product prices, but their stock prices have also rapidly strengthened.
In combination with the published economic data for the first half of the year, the difference between the alcohol CPI and the food CPI in the first half of 2017 is mainly due to the increase in liquor prices. In the short term, the pattern of rising liquor prices will not be changed.
Compared with the expected moderate increase in the food CPI in the second half of the year, the price increase driven by the endogenous logic of liquor will be more independent, and the investment logic for determining the price trend will be clearer.
Faced with Moutai, which has a high price of close to 500 yuan and a market value of 600 billion yuan, many investors are worried that the market value will be too high? Is the valuation too expensive? We believe that the company's valuation mainly depends on current and especially future earnings. Regardless of the company's market capitalization, its prospects will rise if it is good.
Chinese startups, represented by BAT, have risen dramatically in recent years, and they have not been worried by investors because of their market value of 1 trillion and 2 trillion. The market value of Tencent is close to 2.7 trillion. The same is true for overseas companies, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon. . . . Which is not a market value of more than RMB 3 trillion. Why can't the market value of such an excellent company as Moutai exceed one trillion?
There are two common mistakes that many investors make. One is that if the stock price is low, it is cheap. Another is that high market value means expensive. In fact, this is wrong. The principle that "cheap is not good, good goods are not cheap" is the truth for rational and mature investors.
The stock price of Kweichow Moutai is closely related to the price trend of Moutai market. Now that the price of Moutai has soared in the off-season, and the wine industry’s peak season is approaching, institutions continue to be consistently optimistic about the stock price of Kweichow Moutai, which proves that our original judgment was correct.
According to our calculations, Moutai's production capacity will drop by 20% in 2019. The contradiction between market supply and demand will further increase. It will return to normal in 2020, when the company's Moutai sales will reach 40,000 tons, and the company's revenue will reach 80 billion yuan. Taking into account the net profit rate of more than 50%, the net profit will be 40 billion.
If you consider the increase in the series of wines and the income exceeds 10 billion yuan, although the net interest rate is much lower than Feitian Moutai, it is still expected to achieve a net profit of about 3 billion yuan. With the shares unchanged, the earnings per share is 34 yuan.
According to 25 times the PE Moutai share price will reach 855 yuan, if Moutai continues to increase its price in 2018 and 2019, and the ex-factory price is calculated according to the CICC research report to 1150 yuan, then the earnings per share may exceed 50 by 2020 yuan. According to the most conservative 20 times PE, the stock price may exceed 1,000 yuan.
The rapid economic development drives the rapid transformation of consumption upgrades, which will directly guide the activity of business activities and benefit the demand side of liquor in the long term.
Brand effect, capacity limitation and long shelf life make high-end liquor not only have consumer attributes, but also commodity attributes and collection attributes. We have always believed that the price of high-end liquor is a "monetary phenomenon" to a certain extent.
The recent market supply cut of Moutai has also been transmitted to mid-to-high-end liquors such as Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, and the market has also experienced a certain degree of pressure and increase. Once this trend is formed, it cannot be changed in a short period of time, unless the production capacity keeps up. Therefore, the boom cycle of high-end liquor seems to have just begun.
Source: Gaoxi Assets
Author: Chen Jihao
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