In the next golden decade, liquor stocks will not be absent.
About Lin Yuan, there is a very famous "allusion". It entered the market in 1989 with an estimated value of 8,000 yuan until 2006 In 2009, the market value of his stocks has reached 2 billion yuan. Because of these legendary wealth creation experiences, Lin Yuan has received titles such as "Folk Stock God" and "Chinese Buffett".
On April 24, at the 2019 China International "Wine and Society" Forum hosted by the China Liquor Industry Association, Lin Yuan talked about the past, which was in the period from 2003 to 2006. Time to build a warehouse for liquor stocks, with 70% of the capital at that time holding Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye and other liquor stocks. Thirteen years later, when asked how he would operate the liquor stocks in his hands, Lin Yuan's answer was: continue to hold.
Lin Yuan’s "stupid way"
this year At the beginning of the year, there was a sensational news: a "China's top investment home Linyuan Charity Dinner" was auctioned at a price of 190,100 yuan. The bid winner, whose identity is kept confidential, will have dinner with Lin Yuan, the founder and chairman of Shenzhen Linyuan Investment, and Su Peike, a financial commentator on CCTV, during which he can ask Linyuan any questions other than individual stocks.
What Lin Yuan said at this dinner, we don’t know, but at the forum yesterday (April 24), Lin Yuan frankly shared his judgment on liquor stocks.
"I calculated the price I bought at that time, the dividends can be paid back in one year, and it's more than that." Lin Yuan said that this investment is very cost-effective, so I didn't want to sell it.
At the same time, Lin Yuan also said that under the current circumstances, he is also very cautious about buying liquor stocks. It’s just holding."
Stupid people are stupid. This is obviously Lin Yuan’s "self-humility" statement. In fact, Lin Yuan is confident about the choice of subject matter, "I have a good grasp of the industry. I haven't missed it in ten years. In the last fifteen years, I accurately caught the most profitable industry in China, and it was 100%."
"The next industry we invest in must also be one of the most profitable industries, and the risk is zero." Lin Yuan said, this naturally also includes the liquor stocks he will continue to hold.
The golden decade of liquor stocks
seems It is in response to the optimism of the outside world. Last night, Kweichow Moutai released the report for the first quarter of 2019 with extremely high gold content. The report shows that in the first quarter of this year, the company achieved revenue of 21.644 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.92%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 11.221 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.91%, once again achieving double-digit growth in revenue and net profit .
This good performance represented by Kweichow Moutai may become the norm in the wine industry for a long period of time in the future.
Dong Guangyang, director and chief analyst of Huachuang Securities Research Institute, believes that China’s liquor industry is a model of value investment. The reason why liquor stocks are favored by capital is due to the huge market value and good flow of liquor companies. The flexibility and reasonable valuation layout make it an important asset allocation for long-term funds at home and abroad.
Specifically, compared with banks and real estate, each has more than 200 trillion assets, and revenue exceeds 10 trillion. The market value of the wine industry has 1 trillion assets and more than 700 billion revenues, achieving 2.4 The trillion-dollar market value exceeds the total market value of the real estate sector. Compared with the bank's 10 trillion market value, its proportional advantage is also very obvious.
Therefore, the total sum of liquor accounts for the top ten warehouses of the fund reached 5.12%. The allocation of professional institutions to the liquor sector,It surpasses major sectors such as finance, real estate, and medicine.
In the value of the A stock market held by foreign funds, the liquor sector accounts for as much as 16%. Dong Guangyang therefore called China’s wine industry "the most internationalized industry in A-shares." In particular, Chinese liquor has become the medium that can best connect international investors and carry Chinese culture.
Qianhai Open Source Fund Chief Economist Yang Delong proposed the term "White Dragon Horse Stock", which means " For those with the dual attributes of "White Horse Stocks + Industry Leader", in his view, this is a company that represents "China's strength" and will be an important destination for capital. The consumer sector, including liquor, wine, beer, rice wine, etc., has the typical "white horse" characteristics, and the leading companies among them should be concerned and optimistic.
"A-shares will not be absent in the next golden decade," Yang Delong believes that the foreign power that pays much attention to value investment will soon reach 30% among high-quality wine companies. Equity ceiling.
The organization is so optimistic, but the wine companies are talking about pressure
Continue to hold, a golden decade, in the optimistic voice of the organization, representatives of wine companies They behaved very low-key.
Wuliangye, which has a stock price of over 100, has hit a new high in market value. However, Zou Tao, vice chairman of Wuliangye Group and executive deputy general manager of the joint-stock company, said that he "felt more pressure" to maintain the current level and even climb higher. There is no room for relaxation.
According to Tao Zou, in the first quarter of this year, Wuliangye received a substantial increase in fund holdings, adding more than 200 new holding funds, "but they may leave the market at any time, and we feel a lot of pressure. "As Zou Tao said, in the face of investors' "enthusiasm", Wuliangye must be calm and focused, and further improve the market performance of the "28th Law" so that structural prosperity can last for a long time.
Changyu Co., Ltd. General Manager Sun Jian mentioned the growth of the wine market. At present, the total domestic wine market is about 40 billion yuan, which is far smaller than the volume of white wine. From the perspective of per capita consumption, the average annual consumption of wine per capita in France is 42 liters, about 34 liters in Italy, about 21 liters in Spain, and 10 liters in the United States. However, due to the larger population base, the United States has become the world's largest wine market. China's current per capita annual wine consumption is only about 1.3 liters. According to calculations, when China's per capita wine consumption reaches 3.6 liters, it will become the world's largest market. However, in Sun Jian's view, 3.6 liters is not the upper limit. China's per capita wine consumption will continue to rise to the level of 5 liters, 8 liters, and 10 liters. This consumption trend is Changyu's biggest future "capital".
But this expected "big Yang line" is not easy for companies, including the continuous improvement of quality and the promotion of culture. These are topics that must be broken through. "The big Yang line is the macro trend of the industry. For individual enterprises, you must be a solid one."
Rice wine once had a bright moment in the secondary market, but now it is showing mediocre performance, said Bai Hong, general manager of Zhejiang Guyue Longshan Shaoxing Liquor Co., Ltd. Rejuvenation requires multi-dimensional efforts, including the improvement of product structure, the national layout of the market, especially guiding young consumer groups to accept rice wine, and innovating and upgrading the brand culture. Through these measures, the return of the value of rice wine is realized. This return not only includes the consumption level, but also naturally passes on to the secondary market.
Wang Zhibin, vice chairman and general manager of Guangzhou Zhujiang Beer Co., Ltd. talked about the low profit status of the beer industry. In fact, the beer industry has a high level of profitability on a global scale, which also shows that domestic beer is in On the basis of the existing scale advantages, there is still much room for growth. Improve product structure through technological innovation, reduce energy consumption costs through green technology, and improve production and sales efficiency through marketing and intelligent innovation. Within three to five years, the profit of the beer industry will increase substantially, and this is also the opportunity for the beer sector.
From another point of view, the pressure that wine companies talk about is exactly the specific path to "fulfill" the organization's expectations. The strong development consciousness from the wine industry is a key variable that produces a chain reaction of value.
What do you think of the investment opportunities in the wine industry?