Continue to group white horses and blue chips
The top ten major stocks held by the fund's second quarterly report are Ping An of China, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, Gree Electric, Yili, China Merchants Bank, Wuliangye, Focus Media, Hengrui Medicine, and Luzhou Laojiao.
In the weak market, public funds continued to uphold the preference for white horse blue-chip consumer companies in the second quarter. According to Wind Information statistics, the top ten heavy stocks held by the fund in the second quarter report are Ping An of China, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, Gree Electric, Yili, China Merchants Bank, Wuliangye, Focus Media, Hengrui Medicine, Luzhou Laojiao .
Compared with the first quarterly report, Poly Real Estate and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China were replaced by Hengrui Pharmaceuticals and Luzhou Laojiao, temporarily falling out of the list of the top ten major stocks of the fund. It can also be seen that the second quarterly report of public funds is still vigorously Implement "drinking and taking medicine." What is worthy of recognition is that the position layout of "drinking and taking medicine" has indeed brought good returns for many funds in the second quarter. Judging from the market performance of the top ten heavy-duty stocks, in the second quarter, the stock prices of 6 companies rose and 4 companies fell. The stock price of Wuliangye, which rose the most, recorded a cumulative gain of 14.53%, followed by Hengrui Pharmaceuticals with a cumulative increase of 13.35%. Maotai and Luzhou Laojiao achieved phased increases of 8.52% and 7.24% respectively in the second quarter. Although Gree Electric and Yili also achieved growth against the market in the second quarter, their gains were only 0.53% and 0.23%, respectively. However, the performance of Focus Media, China Merchants Bank, Ping An of China, and Midea Group was relatively worrying. In the second quarter, the stock prices were adjusted by 10.1%, 9.11%, 8.59%, and 2.03%, respectively.
Although in the second quarterly report, the top ten heavy stocks of the fund did not change much, it is worth mentioning that the fund’s "warming together" phenomenon of the top ten heavy stocks is more obvious. In the first quarterly report, the number of funds holding single or more top ten stocks was 2,885, and the number in the second quarterly report rose to 3203, an increase of 11.02%. From the perspective of the number of fund holders in individual stocks, the least participating fund is Luzhou Laojiao. A total of 146 funds in the second quarter report appeared in the top ten stocks of the fund; and the most participating fund is Moutai, Guizhou, which surpassed in the second quarter report. Ping An of China has become the favorite company of public fund managers, and at the same time has entered the list of the top ten most heavily held stocks of 707 funds. Also surpassing Ping An of China is Gree Electric. In the second quarter, it became one of the top ten heavy stocks of 669 funds, and the number of fund holders was 15 higher than that of Ping An of China.
Wen Jiaqi pointed out that the main reason for the fund's continued "grouping" consumption of white horse blue chip stocks is that the Chinese economy is facing downward pressure and there are many uncertain factors. The fund focuses more on defense and certainty in investment, so the cash flow is good and growing For large consumer companies with high certainty, even if their valuations are relatively high, liquor and pharmaceutical companies have once again become the "favorites" of public offerings.
The logic behind increasing stock holdings: starting with hot spots and good performance
The second quarterly report of the fund showed that while public funds held large positions in white horse blue-chip stocks, they also increased their holdings or established positions in a number of hot concept stocks. Among the 639 A-share companies that reported fund Masukura and new warehouses in the second quarter, 468 reported profits in the first quarter and their net profit increased year-on-year, accounting for 73.24%.
Although the concept of value investment in the A-share market has gradually prospered since 2017, the second quarterly report of the Observation Fund found that while many public funds held large positions in white horse blue chip stocks, they also increased their holdings or established positions in a number of hot concept stocks. Observation found that in the second quarter, the Fund increased its holdings in 448 A-share companies that had already held heavy positions in the previous quarter. At the same time, it opened new positions in 191 A-shares in the second quarter.
From the perspective of the increase in holdings, the proportion of Funds holdings in the second quarter of Premier was the highest. At the end of the first quarter, the total share of the company's shares held by public funds accounted for 2.29% of the company's circulating equity, which rose sharply to 15.41 at the end of the second quarter. %, the proportion of holding positions increased by 13.12 percentage points. While observing the company’s market performance in the second quarter, although the company terminated major assets during the periodThe restructuring plan, but with the release of the company's first quarterly report, which saw a 61% increase in net profit, and Tesla officially settled in Shanghai, lithium battery concept stocks have changed. In the second quarter, the stock gained a strong 61.92% phase increase.
In the second quarter report, China Stone Technology, which ranked second in the proportion of fund holdings, increased the proportion of fund holdings by 12.45%. Thanks to the active 5G concept, the stock also achieved a cumulative return of 23.54% in the second quarter. Similarly, there is Sino-Singapore Sec, which became the company with the highest proportion of new fund positions in the second quarter. The 1,248,400 shares held by 17 funds accounted for 4.67% of the company's outstanding equity; it is also one of the 5G concept stocks. During the reporting period, Sino-Singapore Sec also achieved a phase increase of 22.45%.
Of course, while ambushing hot concept stocks, public offering funds basically follow the idea of holding high-quality stocks. Among the 639 A-share companies that reported fund Masukura and new warehouses in the second quarter, 468 reported profits in the first quarter and their net profit increased year-on-year, accounting for 73.24%. For example, in the second quarter of the fund's continued preference for liquor stock Shunxin Agriculture, the fund's shareholding ratio in the second quarter report increased by 3.64%. It is observed that the company's net profit in the first quarter report has achieved a good growth of 94.61%. The latest interim report performance shows that due to the expansion of the liquor sales market, the increase in sales and revenue, the company's net profit in the first half of the year is also expected to continue to maintain 70% to 100%. Year-on-year growth.
Similarly, there is Gujing Gongjiu. In the second quarter report, the proportion of fund holdings increased by 1.57%. In the first quarter of this year, the company's net profit achieved a year-on-year increase of 42.5%. Due to the increase in sales revenue, the company also predicted that it will continue to maintain 50% in the first half of the year. %~70% profit growth rate. In the second quarter, the share price of Shunxin Agriculture soared 85.18%, and the share price of Gujing Gongjiu soared 53.02%, and the second quarter report also listed Gujing Gongjiu and Shunxin Agriculture's Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Flexible Allocation Fund in the second quarter. Net worth has increased by 4.21% cumulatively, and has maintained a positive return of 2.94% since the beginning of this year.
Lighten up bank stocks as a whole, and China Merchants Bank is "outstanding"
In the summary of the fund's second quarterly report, China Merchants Bank has only one of the top ten stocks in the banking sector, and its shareholding ratio in public offerings has been reduced from 3.59% to 3.32%, ranking sixth.
According to statistics of companies that have been underweight by public funds in the second quarter report, Wind Information data shows that as many as 819 companies have been reduced by funds, and there are even 542 companies that have entered the top ten largest stocks of funds in the first quarter report. The quarterly report was removed from the list of top ten heavy stocks.
For example, the second quarter report suffered a significant reduction in the holdings of public funds. The data shows that a total of 20 bank stocks in the second quarter report entered the list of the top ten most heavily held stocks of the fund, but from the perspective of the shareholding ratio, only Guiyang Bank and Jiangsu Bank are two. The shareholding ratio of the fund has increased, and the holding ratio of the first and second quarter reports of Minsheng Bank has not changed. The remaining 17 companies have all suffered from the fund's lightening. Among them, China Construction Bank, Bank of Nanjing, and Bank of Ningbo accounted for the highest proportion of lightening positions. The shareholding ratio of the second quarter report fell by more than 1 percentage point compared with the first quarter report.
In the first quarter report of this year's fund, the top ten heavy-kura companies also have two banking stocks, China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank, and only one China Merchants Bank remains in the second quarter. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which ranked the tenth largest in the first quarterly report, retreated four places and became the fourteenth largest in the fund's second quarter report. Although the position has been reduced, the fund's shareholding ratio in China Merchants Bank has dropped from 3.59% in the first quarter to 3.32%, but it is still strongly ranked among the top ten heavyweight stocks.
It is worthy of recognition that on July 25, China Merchants Bank announced its interim performance bulletin. The net profit in the first half of the year increased by 14% year-on-year, and the net profit in the second quarter reached 22.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 14.5%. In line with previous market expectations. In the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of China Merchants Bank's revenue, operating profit and net profit was higher than the growth rate of assets, which ultimately led to a further improvement in ROA and ROE and continued to lead the industry. At the same time, due to conservative asset expansion and good profitability, China Merchants Bank's leverage ratio continues to decline while its core capital adequacy ratio continues to rise, and its capital endogenous ability is strong. If the company's profit in the first half of the past five years averaged 55% for the year, the net profit of China Merchants Bank in 2018 is expected to reach 81.3 billion, an increase of nearly 16% year-on-year.
Although the growth of individual banking stocks is relatively excellent, the overall growth of the banking sector is still relatively weak compared to other industries. Wen Jiaqi said that in the illiquid A-share market, although bank stocks suffered a significant reduction in the second quarter, the overall position is still ranked sixth. Without further catalysis, individual high-quality bank stocks Perhaps it will continue to be recognized by the fund, but overall, it is difficult to be recognized by the fund in the short term.The possibility of scale increase.
Many blue-chip leading stocks are over-provisioned
Judging from the nature of the company’s over-restricted holdings in the second quarterly report, most of them are industry leading companies, such as PetroChina, Sinopec, Baosteel, Conch, Gree, Midea, SAIC, Moutai, Wuliangye, Yili, Haitian Flavour, China Merchants Bank, Poly, etc. Companies are among them.
A reporter from "Red Weekly" learned that although the regulatory authorities have set a limit of "no more than 10% of the net value" on the investment of a single stock of public funds. However, in recent years, over-restricted shareholding by funds has occurred frequently. At the end of the second quarter, there were 378 funds (separated from A and C) holding more than 10% of a single stock, involving 75 listed A shares. Among them, there are 25 funds holding a single stock more than 20% of the net value.
For example, at the end of the second quarter, the market value of Wingtech Technology held by China Ouqifeng accounted for 56.07% of the fund's net asset value, which is the fund with the most over-limit holdings. At the same time, the stock market value of the top two or top three heavy holdings held by individual funds collectively exceeded the limit.
Judging from the nature of the second quarterly report fund overrun companies, most of them are industry leading companies, including PetroChina, Sinopec, Baosteel Co., Ltd., Conch Cement, Gree Electric, Midea Group, SAIC Group, Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Yili, Companies such as Haitian Flavor, China Merchants Bank and Poly Real Estate are among them. Most of the leading companies have stable performance growth. Observing the performance growth of the above-mentioned 75 companies in the first quarter of this year, 63 companies have achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit, accounting for 84%.
Judging from the latest interim performance forecast, only 4 of the 32 companies that have announced their performance forecasts in advance have a net profit reduction or loss in the first half of the year, and the remaining 28 companies are expected to achieve net profits compared to the same period last year. increase. For example, after the 34.05% of Shagang shares held by the Zhongrong Guozheng Iron and Steel Industry Graded Fund, the net profit in the first quarter increased by 138.88%, due to the increase in steel prices, the interim net profit is expected to continue to increase by 210% to 260% year-on-year; Conch Cement Benefiting from the large year-on-year increase in the sales price of the company's products, the net profit of the first quarter report increased by 121.9% year-on-year, and the net profit of the interim report also continued to increase by 8% to 100%.
In addition, by observing the stock price trend of fund overweight companies, many have performed well. For example, the stock price of Aier Ophthalmology has increased by 18.35% in the second quarter, and the stock price has increased by 65.14% since the beginning of the year; Li'anlong's stock price has increased by 19.61% in the second quarter. Since then, it has risen by 46.83%; Songcheng Performing Arts’s share price has risen by 13.14% in the second quarter and has risen by 41.65% since the beginning of this year. These companies have brought good returns to the fund. However, the so-called "over-restricted stocks" of funds such as Vanke A, Mould Plastic Technology, CRRC, and Century Star are not very optimistic, and the decline in the second quarter has exceeded 20%.
"Unique stocks" fell more and rose less
In the second quarter, the best-performing fund "unique stock" in the market was Haili Bio, during which the stock price increased by 54.74%; the Guojin Minfeng Return Fund was more discerning and captured the first "high-send transfer" in the 2018 interim report. Concept stock triple Hongpu.
In addition, in each reporting period, there will always be some companies that will receive the "special favor" of a certain fund manager and become the "exclusive stocks" of funds in the quarter. Observing the data of the second quarter report of the fund, there are 382 A-share companies holding only one fund, but it is a pity that during the second quarter, there were 10 fund "single stocks" suspended, and there were only 35 stocks in normal trading. Realized an increase, accounting for only 9.41%.
Among the companies with better growth momentum, there are many sub-new stocks that have just been listed, such as Fuda Alloy and Baby-friendly Room. The cumulative gains are mostly from the continuous daily limit at the initial stage of listing. In the second quarter, the market's best-performing fund "unique stock" was Haili Bio. During the period, the stock price increased by 54.74%. The net value of the re-entitlement unit of China Huitianfu Medical and Health Fund in the second quarter increased by 7.62%, which has increased by 16.33 since the beginning of this year. %. Guojin Minfeng Return Fund is more eye-catching. The second quarter report captured the first "high delivery transfer" concept stock in the 2018 interim report, Sanlian Hongpu. After the launch of the plan on June 26, the company's stock price closed 4 consecutive daily limits.
However, at the same time, the trend of many stock price correction companies in the "unique stocks" is also quite tragic. 59 companies have fallen by more than 30%. *ST Tianma, Qianshan Yaoji, and Jinlong Electromechanical have experienced different declines. As much as 76.21%, 60.67%, 59.61%.
Observing the fundamentals of the fund's "unique stocks" in the second quarter report, 234 companies made profits in the first quarter of this year and their net profit increased year-on-year, accounting for 61.26%, which was lower than the fund's total holdings in the second quarter.73.2% of the stocks are high-quality companies. Among them, there is a similar performance growth of 607.48% in the first quarter report and a 505.7% growth in the interim report; there is also a SAINT ANGELO with a quarterly net profit increase of 150.21% and an interim report growth of 200% to 250%.
At the same time, there are also companies like agricultural products (the net profit of the first quarter reported a year-on-year decline of 38.39%, and the predicted loss of the first half of the year was 12 million to 24 million yuan). With the weakening of fundamentals, the current dynamic P/E ratio of agricultural products has reached as high as 753.7 times. Fuan shares, which also have poor growth prospects, achieved a year-on-year growth of 16.33% in net profit of 2.743 million yuan in the first quarter. However, due to the decline in the overall gross profit margin of castings, the company's net profit in the first half of the year is expected to drop by 62.07%. The valuation of has reached 294.69 times. Although the company announced its forecast for the first half of the year's performance decline at the end of April, it has become the "unique" heavy stock of Xingyin Fengying's flexible allocation of hybrid funds. However, the company is currently suspending trading to plan a major asset reorganization. Perhaps the intervention of the fund is betting on the potential benefits that the reorganization is expected to bring.
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