On December 15, the liquor sector once again became the strongest outlet for A shares. Some investors joked that the leading A-share technology companies have become Maotai Technology, Wuliang Precision, Yanghe Semiconductor, and Luzhou Optoelectronics. The ridicule belongs to the ridicule, but it reflects a reality: the food and beverage represented by Baijiu are the long cattle champions of A shares.
For investors, if technology stocks are poetry and distant places, then food and beverages are the most certain opportunity at the moment. In the past 15 years, the food and beverage industry has been the best performing industry, and the entire sub-food index has risen nearly 30 times. It is foreseeable that, supported by solid performance, the food and beverage industry will still have a lot of room for growth in the next few years. From now on, there are still great investment opportunities.
However, there are investment opportunities, but it does not mean that you can make money by buying, especially if you have to choose a specific company in a large industry. For retail investors, there is no risk-free and easy investment in the world because of two reasons. First, the stock selection ability is not strong, and the buying does not go up, and the selling price is up to the limit, which is troubled by many investors. The second is that the capital threshold is too high. It is very difficult for the retail investors to participate in the market. It costs 180,000 yuan for Maotai and 27,000 for Wuliangye.
The troubles of retail investors are not unsolvable. Since last year, the market has been saying that "stocks are not as good as buying bases." Compared with stocks, funds have lower investment risks and lower capital thresholds, and they have become mainstream products among retail investors.
On December 14, the China Food and Beverage ETF (subscription code: 515173) went on sale, which received attention from all walks of life and praised investors. Guosen Securities believes that the China Food and Beverage ETF focuses on good business and high growth in the era of big consumption. For retail investors, "eat well and drink well" is no longer a polite sentence, but a real investment opportunity.
It is understood that the underlying index tracked by the China Food and Beverage ETF is the China Securities Subdivision Food and Beverage Industry Thematic Index. The constituent stocks include 50 leading companies in liquor, dairy products, and condiments, of which liquor accounts for 58%. On December 15th, the index hit a record high, which also made investors look forward to the performance of the China Food and Beverage ETF after its listing.
What are the characteristics and advantages of China Food and Beverage ETF? On the evening of December 14, Xu Meng, the proposed fund manager of the China Food and Beverage ETF, came to the standard live broadcast room and introduced the system to the majority of investors. In summary, they are four sentences: Long-term growth, leading companies have premiums, and indexes There are advantages, ETF has China.
The logic and background of the Long Bull Champions sector
In recent times, the hot spots of A-shares have been scattered, and the rotation of the sector has accelerated. Many people bought the bottom at 3,000 points, and they got stuck at 3,400 points. But there is one sector that is eye-catching, and that is the food and beverage represented by liquor. Industry leader Moutai has repeatedly set new highs, and there is a joke in the market, "I don't know which of the market or Moutai will go up to 3,500 first."
On December 15, the China Securities Subdivision Food and Beverage Industry Thematic Index hit a record high with a maximum of 33,526 points, which has doubled from the low point of 15,670 in March. From a long-term perspective, the sub-food index has risen nearly 30 times in the past 15 years. The annualized income in the past 5 years has reached an astonishing 30%.
According to the growth performance of the Shenwan first-level industry index since 2005, food and beverage firmly occupy the first place, which is A The long bull champion of stocks.
At the moment, market funds are optimistic about the spring market of food and beverages. Will it be a good time for layout? Xu Meng’s answer is yes, when he thinks the best investmentThe machine was 15 years ago, followed by now.
There are two points of logic. First, there is a catalyst in the short term. New Year's Day and Spring Festival are approaching, and unexpected sales or product price increases will benefit the entire sector. A strong economic recovery next year is expected to drive rapid consumption growth and the fundamentals of the food and beverage industry will recover. Superimposed on the low performance base of each company in the first quarter of this year, the performance of the first quarter next year will show a high growth rate year-on-year.
The second is long-term investment value. In the context of economic recovery, people’s income levels have increased, and people’s consumption expenditures have increased in the context of consumption upgrades. With the transformation of the mode of driving economic growth, the role of consumption in driving the economy will become more obvious.
Buffett’s teacher Graham said that the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. The long-term bullishness of food and beverages is not a bubble, but corresponds to long-term performance growth.
According to the China Securities Research Report, the CSI's subdivision food and beverage industry has maintained a ROE of more than 15% since 2014, and more than 20% after 2018. As the strongest baijiu in the A-share market, there are three liquors that have risen more than 10 times since 2015, namely Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu.
It should be noted that food and beverages have been out of the market in the past ten years. Can they continue in 2021? Xu Meng believes that the food and beverage industry is still in a stage of rapid development and the market space is large. The market share of leading companies continues to increase. Leading companies representing wine, dairy products, and condiments still have relatively good investment opportunities.
Xu Meng's judgment is based. Consumption has become a new driving force for economic growth, and our country is experiencing the era of "big consumption era". Judging from the historical experience of the economies and stock markets of countries around the world, the major developed countries have all experienced a "big consumption era." U.S. stocks have been spending more than 30 years from the 1960s to the 1990s.
Currently in the era of inflation + low interest rates, investors are chasing profitable and stable growth products, and at the same time, the tolerance for valuation is increasing. The food and beverage industry has a long track and strong profitability, and institutions will give a definite premium. Whether in the past or present, short-term or long-term, food and beverage have the logic and background to continue to dominate in various industries.
"Form a group" with leading fund companies to seize food and beverage opportunities
Although the food industry track is good, the Matthew effect is prominent and investment opportunities are concentrated In the leading enterprise. After a long period of rising, the stock prices and valuations of leading companies have been very high. For example, Moutai will have 180,000 per lot and Wuliangye will also need 27, 000. Investors are afraid of high prices. Once the stock price adjusts, there will be great pressure on funds.
Regarding this phenomenon, Xu Meng’s view is that basic orientation is the first logic of configuration. The strong profitability of food and beverages has led to the fact that the valuation of this sector has not been cheap. From a historical point of view , The risk of not investing is greater. In addition, high valuations can be digested by performance growth, not necessarily waiting for stock price adjustments.
Faced with stock selection difficulties and high capital thresholds, ETF funds are the preferred method of participation for many investors. On December 14, the China Food and Beverage ETF was officially launched (subscription code: 515173, transaction code: 515170). The sale period is from December 14 to December 23. The online cash subscription period is from 21 to 23. Investors can Subscribe through major brokerage platforms.
As mentioned earlier, the underlying index tracked by the China Food and Beverage ETF is the China Securities Subdivision Food and Beverage Industry Thematic Index. In the industry distribution, Liquor accounts for 58% of the weight, and dairy products and condiments also exceed 10%. The constituent stocks are all leading companies, such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Haitian Weiye, Yili, etc., which can be said to be the best choice. .
In Xu Meng's view, food and beverage ETFs are one of the varieties that can be used as a pension configuration and are suitable for long-term holding. This is inseparable from the characteristics and advantages of food and beverage ETFs.
The first is profitability. The leading food and beverage sectors have strong profitability, and the long-term performance growth is highly certain.
Secondly, the ETF operating mechanism has a comparative advantage. Compared with active funds, the upper limit of the equity weight of the food and beverage ETF is 15%, which is further overweight.Leading enterprise. The plate concentration is high, and the style does not drift. As purchases and redemptions are physical stocks, large purchases and redemptions have little impact on the fund's performance. The position is basically 100%, and the capital utilization efficiency is high.
Finally, the underlying index has a relative advantage. Historically, the annualized return rate of the subdivided food and beverage index is better than other indexes in the food and beverage sector.
The advantages of the above three food and beverage ETFs are summarized by Xu Meng as long-term growth, leading companies with premium prices, and index advantages. In Xu Meng's view, China Food & Beverage ETF has another major advantage, which is the excellent fund management and operation capabilities of China Asset Management, that is, "ETF has China Asset Management."
It is understood that China Asset Management is currently the largest fund company managed by domestic equity ETFs, ranking first in the industry for 16 consecutive years. Of course, the spokesperson of a fund is the fund manager, and performance is positively correlated with the ability of the fund manager.
As the proposed fund manager of the China Food and Beverage ETF, Xu Meng is the director of the quantitative investment department of China Asset Management. The outside world evaluates him as stable performance and profound qualifications. According to data, Xu Meng has 7 years of experience in public fund management, and the scale of public fund under management reached 64.63 billion, and he won the 2018 Golden Bull Award and Golden Fund Award.
For the China Food and Beverage ETF, although the entry threshold is only 1,000 yuan, no investment is zero risk and immediate benefits are seen. Xu Meng suggested that investors should pay more attention to the profitability of the company, earn more income from performance growth, and less income from valuation. In terms of operating methods, investors can diversify risks by means of fixed investment.
There are more than ten days left in 2020. New Year's Day and the Spring Festival are approaching, and the food and beverage sector will usher in a wave of performance sprints. Some believe that the capital market style is shifting from liquidity-driven to profit-driven, and industry leaders with good performance are more likely to receive attention. Food and beverage ETFs are undoubtedly one of the good ways to capture the spring market.