On December 15, the liquor sector once again became the strongest outlet for A shares. Some investors joked that the leading A-share technology companies have become Maotai Technology, Wuliang Precision, Yanghe Semiconductor, and Luzhou Optoelectronics. The ridicule belongs to the ridicule, but it reflects a reality: The food and beverage represented by Baijiu are the long cattle champions of A-shares.
For investors, if technology stocks are poetry and distant places, then food and beverages are the most certain opportunity at the moment. In the past 15 years, food and beverage is the best performing industry, and the entire sub-food index has risen nearly 30 times. It is foreseeable that, supported by solid performance, the food and beverage industry will still have a lot of room for growth in the next few years. From now on, there are still great investment opportunities.
However, having investment opportunities does not mean that you can make money by buying, especially if you have to choose a specific company in a large industry. For retail investors, there is no zero-risk and easy investment in the world because of two reasons. First, the stock picking ability is not strong, and the buying does not go up, and the selling price is up to the limit, which is troubled by many investors. The second is that the capital threshold is too high. It is very difficult for the retail investors to participate in the process. Moutai 180,000 per hand and Wuliangye 270,000 per hand.
The troubles of retail investors are not unsolvable. Since last year, the market has been saying that "stocks are not as good as buying bases". Compared with stocks, funds have lower investment risks and lower capital thresholds, and they have become mainstream products among retail investors.
On December 14, the China Food and Beverage ETF (subscription code: 515173) went on sale, which received attention from all walks of life and praised investors. Guosen Securities believes that the China Food and Beverage ETF is focusing on good business and high growth in the era of big consumption. For retail investors, "eat well and drink well" is no longer a polite sentence, but a real investment opportunity.
It is understood that the underlying index tracked by the China Food and Beverage ETF is the China Securities Subdivision Food and Beverage Industry Thematic Index. The constituent stocks include 50 leading companies in liquor, dairy products, and condiments, of which liquor accounts for 58%. On December 15, the index hit a record high, which also made investors look forward to the performance of the China Food and Beverage ETF after its listing.
What are the characteristics and advantages of China Food & Beverage ETF? On the evening of December 14, Xu Meng, the proposed fund manager of the China Food and Beverage ETF, came to the standard live broadcast room and introduced the system to the majority of investors. In summary, they are four sentences: Long-term growth, leading companies have premiums, and indexes There are advantages, and ETF has China.
The logic and background color of the Changniu champion plate
Recently, the hot spots of A-shares have been scattered, and the rotation of the sector has accelerated. Many people buy bottoms at 3,000 points, and they are stuck at 3,400 points. But there is one sector that is eye-catching, and that is the food and beverage represented by liquor. Industry leader Moutai has repeatedly set new highs, and there is a joke in the market, "I don't know which of the market and Moutai will reach 3,500 first."
On December 15, the China Securities Subdivision Food and Beverage Industry Thematic Index hit a record high with a maximum of 33,526 points, which has doubled from the low of 15,670 in March. From a long-term perspective, in the past 15 years, this sub-food index has risen nearly 30 times. The annualized income in the past 5 years has reached an astonishing 30%.
According to the growth performance of Shenwan's first-level industry index since 2005, food and beverage firmly occupy the first place, and it is the long bull champion of A shares.
At the moment, market funds are optimistic about the spring market of food and beverages. Will it be a good time for layout? Xu Meng's answer is yes. He believes that the best time to invest is 15 years ago, followed by now.
There are two points of logic. First, there is a short-term catalyst. New Year's Day and Spring Festival are coming soon, and unexpected sales or product price increases are good for the entire sector. A strong economic recovery next year is expected to drive rapid consumption growth and the fundamentals of the food and beverage industry will recover. Superimposed on the low performance base of each company in the first quarter of this year, the performance of the first quarter next year will show a high growth rate year-on-year.
The second is long-term investment value. In the context of economic recovery, people’s income levels have increased, and people’s consumption expenditures have increased in the context of consumption upgrades. With the transformation of the mode of driving economic growth, the role of consumption in driving the economy will become more obvious.
Buffett’s teacher Graham said that the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. The long-term bullishness of food and beverages is not a bubble, but corresponds to long-term performance growth.
According to the research report of China Securities, the CSI subdivision food and beverage industry has maintained a ROE of more than 15% since 2014, and more than 20% after 2018. As the strongest baijiu in the A-share market, there are three liquors that have risen more than 10 times since 2015, namely Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu.
It should be noted that food and beverages have been out of the Changniu in the past ten years. Can they continue in 2021? Xu Meng believes that the food and beverage industry is still in a stage of rapid development and the market space is large. The market share of leading companies continues to increase. Leading companies representing wine, dairy products, and condiments still have relatively good investment opportunities.
Xu Meng's judgment is well-founded. Consumption has become a new driving force for economic growth, and my country is experiencing the era of "big consumption era". Judging from the historical experience of the economies and stock markets of all countries in the world, major developed countries have experienced a "big consumption era". U.S. stocks have been spending more than 30 years in the 60s and 90s.
Currently in the era of inflation + low interest rates, investors are chasing profitable and stable growth products, and at the same time, the tolerance for valuation is increasing. The food and beverage industry has a long track and strong profitability, and institutions will give a definite premium. Whether in the past or present, short-term or long-term, food and beverage have the logic and background to continue to dominate in various industries.
"Form a group" with leading fund companies to seize food and beverage opportunities
Although the track of the food industry is good, the Matthew effect is prominent, and investment opportunities are concentrated on leading companies. After a long period of rising, the stock prices and valuations of leading companies have been very high. For example, Moutai will cost 180,000 yuan per lot, and Wuliangye will also cost 20,000 yuan. Investors are afraid of high prices. Once the stock price adjusts, there will be great pressure on funds.
Regarding this phenomenon, Xu Meng’s view is that Basic orientation is the first logic of configuration. The strong profitability of food and beverages has led to the fact that the valuation of this sector has not been cheap. Historically, it is not investment. The risk is greater. In addition, high valuations can be digested by performance growth, not necessarily waiting for stock price adjustments.
In the face of stock selection difficulties and high funding thresholds, ETF funds are the preferred method of participation for many investors. On December 14, the China Food and Beverage ETF was officially launched (subscription code: 515173, transaction code: 515170). The sale period is from December 14 to December 23. The online cash subscription period is from 21 to 23. Investors can Subscribe through major brokerage platforms.
As mentioned earlier, the underlying index tracked by the China Food and Beverage ETF is the China Securities Subdivision Food and Beverage Industry Thematic Index. In the industry distribution, liquor accounts for 5 percent.With a weight of 8%, dairy products and condiments are also more than 10%. The constituent stocks are all leading companies, such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Haitian Weiye, and Yili, which can be said to be the best selection.
In Xu Meng's view, food and beverage ETFs are one of the varieties that can be used as a pension configuration and are suitable for long-term holding. This is inseparable from the characteristics and advantages of food and beverage ETFs.
The first is profitability. The leading food and beverage sectors have strong profitability, and the long-term performance growth is highly certain.
Secondly, the ETF operating mechanism has a comparative advantage. Compared with active funds, the upper limit of the equity weight of food and beverage ETFs is 15%, further overweighting leading companies. The plate concentration is high, and the style does not drift. As purchases and redemptions are physical stocks, large purchases and redemptions have little impact on the fund's performance. The position is basically 100%, and the capital utilization efficiency is high.
Finally, the underlying index has a comparative advantage. Historically, the annualized return rate of the subdivided food and beverage index is better than other indexes in the food and beverage sector.
The advantages of the above three food and beverage ETFs are summarized by Xu Meng as Long-term growth, leading companies have premiums, and indexes have advantages. In Xu Meng's view, China Food & Beverage ETF has another major advantage, which is the excellent fund management and operation capabilities of China Asset Management, that is, "ETF has China Asset Management."
It is understood that China Asset Management is currently the largest fund company managed by domestic equity ETFs, ranking first in the industry for 16 consecutive years. Of course, the spokesperson of a fund is the fund manager, and performance is positively correlated with the ability of the fund manager.
As the proposed fund manager of the China Food and Beverage ETF, Xu Meng is the director of the Quantitative Investment Department of China Asset Management. The outside world judges him that his performance is stable and his qualifications are deep. According to the data, Xu Meng has 7 years of public fund management experience, and the scale of public fund management reached 64.63 billion, and he won the 2018 Golden Bull Award and Golden Fund Award.
For the China Food and Beverage ETF, although the entry threshold is only 1,000 yuan, no investment is zero risk and immediate benefits are seen. Xu Meng suggested that investors should pay more attention to the profitability of the company, earn more income from performance growth, and less income from valuation. In terms of operating methods, investors can diversify risks by means of fixed investment.
There are more than ten days left in 2020. New Year's Day and the Spring Festival are approaching, and the food and beverage sector will usher in a wave of performance sprints. There is a view that the capital market style is shifting from liquidity-driven to profit-driven, and industry leaders with good performance are more likely to receive attention. Food and beverage ETFs are undoubtedly one of the good ways to capture the spring market.