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As of 2020, the actual sales revenue of the domestic game industry will reach 278.69 billion. Is the industry opportunity coming?

Release Time:2021-04-22 Topic:Analysis of the status quo of China's stock market in 2020 Reading:69 Navigation:Stock Liao information > Anime > As of 2020, the actual sales revenue of the domestic game industry will reach 278.69 billion. Is the industry opportunity coming? phone-reading

  Original title: Is there an opportunity in the game industry?

  The game industry welcomes development opportunities

   From 2015 to 2020, the overall domestic game market has maintained rapid growth. As of 2020, the actual sales revenue of the domestic game industry has reached 278.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 20.7%. The game industry has more than 660 million users.

   From the perspective of the supply side, the number of version numbers issued in China has stabilized, and competition pressure has intensified, making game companies focus on R&D to improve their hard power; January to December 2020, The number of domestic online game version numbers issued exceeds 1,000, and the game reserves are rich, including blockbuster products from many top game companies; China’s Internet user model has gradually stabilized, and the per capita App downloads are declining, and most of the traffic They are all occupied by super apps, which reduces the game company’s reliance on channel intermodal transportation. At the same time, the game content party itself has begun to undertake publicity and distribution. Therefore, the role played by game publishers in the process of acquiring new users is gradually expanding. The bargaining power of high-quality content will also be further improved.

   From the demand side, in 2020, the actual sales revenue of China’s self-developed games overseas market reached 15.450 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 33.25% compared to 2019, and it has always maintained rapid growth. China’s female game users account for nearly half of China’s game users, but they contribute less than a quarter of the overall game market revenue. However, as the product line for female consumer groups gradually matures, the number of female users will welcome With the coming surge, the consumption potential of female players will also be further stimulated.

   CSI Animation Game Index Investment Value Analysis

The    CSI Animation Game ("Animation Game") Index selects stocks of listed companies whose main business involves animation, comics, games and other related sub-entertainment industries as sample stocks, reflecting animation The overall performance of A-share listed companies in the game industry. The index's constituent stocks have a balanced market value distribution, relatively abundant liquidity, precise industry positioning, and various institutions are optimistic about the future development potential of the index's constituent stocks. As of January 29, 2021, the index's unanimous forecast of net profit for wind in 2020 is 245.39% year-on-year, far exceeding the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index . Taking December 31, 2012 to January 29, 2021 as the sample period, the annualized rate of return of the animation game index is 6.42%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.36. The performance is good.

   With the improvement of the material level of residents, the "Generation Z (post-95)" group gradually has income ability, the trend of domestically produced games is accelerating, and the expansion of overseas business is increasing. The demand for games is expected to increase, so we believe that the index has upward momentum and has configuration value.

  1. The game industry ushered in development opportunities

  1.1. Overview of the development of my country's game industry in 2020

   Since Atari entered the arcade market with "Pong" in the early 1970s, online games have experienced a process from host (arcade)-end game-page game-mobile game. Although the communication channels and forms of games have undergone changes and updates, the value of games has always been to create happiness for mankind and bring spiritual enjoyment.

   Affected by the epidemic in 2020, online and offline entertainment activities will be restricted, and the public will gradually turn to online entertainment. The "home economy" activities are relatively active, and some sectors even usher in development opportunities, such as games industry. From 2015 to 2020, the overall domestic game market has maintained rapid growth. As of 2020, the actual sales revenue of the domestic game industry reached 278.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 20.7%.

  From the perspective of market segmentation, in 2020, my country’s client game market and web game market will continue to shrink, and the actual sales revenue and market share will both decrease significantly. The game market maintains actual sales revenue growth. Mobile games are an important segment of the game industry. The actual sales revenue in 2020 will be 209.68 billion yuan, accounting for 75% of the domestic game industry. As mobile games require low equipment thresholds and are easy to carry and operate, we believe that the scale of China's mobile game market may further expand.

  1.2. Supply side

  1.2.1. Version number and demand promote the quality of game content, and the leading companies in the game industry will have abundant future product reserves

   version number regulation and competitive pressure make game companies focus on R&D to improve their hard power. The number of editions issued in my country tends to be stable, and the supply side is basically stable in the long run. The limited supply has forced companies to pay more attention to product scheduling and game launch arrangements, and at the same time carry out in-depth polishing of product content and follow-up operations to ensure the long-term contribution of game flow. From January to December 2020, the number of domestic online game version numbers issued exceeds 1,000. Among them, Tencent, NetEase and Perfect World and other top game companies have 13 games, 11 games, and 5 games, and the game reserves are abundant.

The ceiling and life cycle of    head games have been extended. Taking "Glory of the King" as an example, in 2020, the number of daily active users of the game will reach a new high. "Sword and Expedition", "Awakening of Nations", "Original God" and other products have a global monthly turnover of more than 500 million. In 2020H1, 14 of the top 30 best-selling mobile game products in China have been online for more than 3 years.

  1.2.2. Improved bargaining power for high-quality content

   As the growth of game users slows down, the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing, and it becomes more difficult to acquire new customers. At the same time, large companies enter the buying market, making the buying market costly. The increase has prompted the company to purchase rationally, shift the focus to the quality of the game itself, and increase R&D investment. From the perspective of R&D expenses, in 2020H1, the R&D expenses of 25 companies in the game sector are 4.471 billion yuan, an increase of 11.86% compared to 2019H1. From the perspective of the ratio of R&D investment to operating income, in 2020H1, the average R&D expense ratio of 25 companies in the game sector is 11.13%, which is an increase of 13.28% compared to 2019H1.

   my country’s mobile game distribution channels evolve as follows: third-party app stores (intermodal)—hard core alliance led by mobile phone manufacturers (intermodal)—super APP (buy volume) vertical community (intermodal) ). The development of mobile games has benefited from the continuous deepening and advancement of the smartphone market. Between 2012 and 2016, with the rapid growth of domestic smartphone users, mobile games have also entered a period of rapid growth. At the beginning, users did not make product choices, and relied on downloading and installing games from the app store. At that time, my country’s demographic dividend was also increasing.The higher, so the channel business has the market initiative. With the establishment of the "hard core alliance" by Huawei, Xiaomi, and OV, small and medium-sized channel vendors have lost in the competition. The current Internet user model has gradually stabilized. App downloads per capita are declining, and most of the traffic is occupied by super apps, which reduces the dependence on channel intermodal transportation. At the same time, the game content party itself has begun to bear the responsibility of publicity, so game publishers The role played in the process of acquiring new users is gradually expanding, and the bargaining power of high-quality content will also be further improved.

  1.3. Demand side

  1.3.1. Games go overseas and the global market is vast

  Chinese games "going out" is an important direction for Chinese culture to go out, and it is also an important layout for the development of leading enterprises and an important means for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. In 2020, the actual sales revenue of China's self-developed games in overseas markets reached 15.450 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 33.25% compared to 2019, and it has always maintained a rapid growth trend.

  The types and themes of Chinese games going overseas are gradually enriching, and they are also actively exploring emerging markets such as the Middle East, India, Russia, and Brazil. From the perspective of income distribution, classified by game type, in 2020, my country's strategy (including SLG) game revenue accounted for the highest proportion of 37.18%, followed by shooting and role-playing (ARPG/MMORPG), accounting for 17.97 respectively. According to the regional classification, the overseas revenue of my country’s self-developed mobile games mainly comes from the US market, accounting for 27.55% of revenue, followed by Japan and South Korea, accounting for 23.91% and 8.81%, respectively.

   Overall, we believe that with the continuous improvement of the R&D capabilities of Chinese game manufacturers and the support of national policies, the competitiveness of domestic games is increasing. In the future, China’s self-developed games will become global The market share of the company will be further increased, and more and more overseas players will be able to deeply feel the charm of Chinese culture.

  1.3.2. Women have a lot to do in the market

   In 2019, the number of users in China’s game industry was 640 million, of which female game users exceeded 300 million, accounting for over 46% of the number of game users in China, compared with In 2018, there was an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, and women's enthusiasm for the game market should not be underestimated. In terms of actual sales revenue, female users in the Chinese game market contributed more than 52.6 billion yuan in actual sales revenue in 2019, accounting for 22.8% of the overall game market revenue. Compared with the past three years, it has basically remained stable and still has consumption potential.

  Chinese female game users account for nearly half of Chinese game users, but they contribute less than a quarter of the overall game market revenue. The main reasons are as follows: 1. In the past, the number of high-quality products aimed at female game users was small, and casual small-sum consumer games still occupy the female user market; 2. The corporate Matthew effect on the female game user market is obvious; 3. Chinese game companies are gradually moving towards the strategic route of high-quality games, so the development cycle of high-quality products will be further lengthened. But at present, in addition to the paper-stacking games "Love and the Producer", Tencent's "Miracle Love" and other manufacturers are sticking to the track, Tencent, NetEase, Mihayou, Sanqi and other powerful companies and major manufacturers have also begun to develop female games. As the product line for female consumer groups gradually matures, the number of female users will usher in a surge, and the consumption potential of female players will be further stimulated.

  2. CSI Animation Game Index Investment Value Analysis

  2.1. Index Introduction

The    CSI Animation Game ("Animation Game") Index selects stocks of listed companies whose main business involves animation, comics, games and other related segmented entertainment industriesAs a sample stock, the votes reflect the overall performance of the stocks of A-share listed companies in the animation and game industry. The constituent stocks of the index are adjusted every six months, and the adjustment of constituent stocks is implemented on the next trading day after the close of the second Friday in June and December each year.

   Animation Game Index is based on the CSI All Index Index The sample stocks are used as the sample space. According to the average daily trading volume of A shares in the most recent year, they are ranked from high to After the low ranking, remove the bottom 20% of the stocks, and then select the stocks of listed companies whose main business involves animation, comics, and games as the index stocks. Specific businesses include but are not limited to animation creation, animation distribution, game development, and games. Operation and game promotion, etc.

  2.2. Evenly distributed market value

  As of January 29, 2021, the distribution of the animation and game index constituent stocks in the entire market is as follows. There are 4 constituent stocks from the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, weighting 39.34%; there are 8 Only the constituent stocks are from CSI 500, with a weight of 31.11%; 12 constituent stocks are from CSI 1000, with a weight of 21.55%; the remaining 9 constituent stocks have a weight of 8.00%. Overall, the weight distribution of the index's constituent stocks is more balanced.

   divides the stocks of the whole market into 5 groups according to the average daily turnover of the past year. According to the weight calculation of the constituents, as of January 29, 2021, the animation game index is in the The weight ratio of the top 20% component equity is 74.30%, the second highest group has 19.09%, the middle group has 4.10%, and the second lowest group has 2.50%.

  2.3. Representative of the animation and game industry

   According to the business involved in the component stocks of the Animation Game Index, we divide it into three categories, namely games, animation, and animation and games. As of January 29, 2021, from the results of the division, the index's constituent stocks mainly cover the gaming industry, with a weight of 89.63%, and the remaining 10.37% of the weight covers animation and games. Most of the companies engaged in game business in the index integrate game R&D, publishing and operation, and have strong independent research and development capabilities and operational capabilities, while companies involved in animation business mainly focus on IP to coordinate online and offline development. On the whole, the exposure of the constituent stocks of the animation and game index is relatively pure and representative of the industry.

  2.4. Institutions are optimistic about the future development potential of index stocks

   Unanimous Expectations represents the comprehensive evaluation of the future operations of the constituent stocks of the index by various institutions. It contains information on the future profitability of the constituent stocks and is also an important reference indicator for stock selection. Analysts’ estimates of the company’s future earnings are relatively independent of the revenue sources of the traditional alpha model, and are one of the important sources of incremental revenue in the existing models (for details, please refer to the Tianfeng Special Report "Analysts Based on Basic Data" Consistent Expectation Index Construction").

   This article uses Wind’s consistent forecasted net profit data, which is calculated by adding up the consistent forecasted net profit data of index constituents. As of January 29, 2021, the unanimously predicted net profit of the animation game index in 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be 16.876 billion yuan, 26.06 billion yuan and 30.973 billion yuan respectively. The index predicts that the net profit of wind will be 245.39% year-on-year in 2020, far exceeding the CSI 300 index. The unanimously predicted net profit of the animation game index is on an upward trend as a whole, reflecting the optimism of various institutions on the future development of the index's constituent stocks.

  2.5. The animation and game industry may be accumulating power

   Using December 31, 2012 to January 29, 2021 as the sample period, the annualized rate of return of the animation game index is 6.42%, the Sharpe ratio is 0.36, and the performance is good . Although the performance of the index in recent years has not been as good as in 2013 and 2015, with the increase in the material level of residents, the "Generation Z (post-95)" group has gradually gained income ability, the trend of domestic game boutiques has accelerated, and the expansion of overseas business , my country’s demand for animation games is expected to increase, and this may be the stage of accumulating power for the animation game industry.

   In the sample period, as of January 29, 2021, the net value of the animation game index is 1.65. Overlapping profit recovery and the demand for animation games in my country’s market, we believe that the index has Upward power, with configuration value.

  3. Cathay Pacific Games ETF Investment Value Analysis

   Cathay Pacific Fund was established in March 1998 and is one of the first fund management companies established in a standardized manner in China. The company has entered a stage of steady development after 22 years of market grind. The company has business qualifications including public fund investment management, social security fund investment management, corporate annuity investment management, specific client asset management, qualified domestic institutional investors, occupational annuity investment management, and qualified foreign institutional investors. Product line, a comprehensive and diversified large-scale asset management company that meets the needs of investors with different risk preferences. As of December 31, 2020, the scale of Cathay Pacific Fund's ETF exceeded 86.1 billion yuan, and the scale of ETF ranked second in the industry.

   Cathay Pacific Game ETF tracks the China Securities Animation Game Index, and mainly adopts a complete replication strategy for passive indexation investment, thereby closely tracking the underlying index and pursuing the minimization of tracking deviation and tracking error.

  4. Summary

   Affected by the epidemic in 2020, online and offline entertainment activities will be restricted, and the public has gradually turned to online entertainment. The "home economy" activities are relatively active, and the game industry has ushered in development opportunities. From 2015 to 2020, the overall domestic game market has maintained rapid growth. As of 2020, the actual sales revenue of the domestic game industry reached 278.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 20.7%. From the perspective of the supply side, my country’s version number regulation and competitive pressure have caused game companies to focus on R&D to enhance their hard power; from January to December 2020, the number of domestic online game version numbers issued exceeds 1,000, and the game reserves are abundant, including many A blockbuster product of a leading game company; game companies’ reliance on channel intermodal transportation is reduced, and the bargaining power of high-quality content has been further improved. From the demand side, the actual sales revenue of China's self-developed games overseas reached US$15.450 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.25% compared to 2019, and has always maintained a rapid growth trend; as the product line for female consumer groups gradually matures, The number of female users will usher in a surge, and the consumption potential of female players will also be further stimulated.

The    CSI Animation Game ("Animation Game") Index selects stocks of listed companies whose main business involves animation, comics, games and other related sub-entertainment industries as sample stocks, reflecting animation The overall performance of A-share listed companies in the game industry. The index's constituent stocks have a balanced market value distribution, relatively abundant liquidity, precise industry positioning, and various institutions are optimistic about the future development potential of the index's constituent stocks. As of January 29, 2021, the wind consensus forecast of the index in 2020 is 245.39% year-on-year in net profit, far exceeding the CSI 300 index.

   Taking December 31, 2012 to January 29, 2021 as the sample period, the annualized rate of return of the animation game index is 6.42%, the Sharpe ratio is 0.36, and the performance is good .

  Risk Warning: This report is based on the analysis of historical index data. Risk factors such as changes in the market environment may make the index investment value analysis invalid.

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