Since I explored a trading system, I never dare to read any other trading books. why? This is my experience. Whenever I read other books, I will always be disturbed by some novel ideas of the author. Whenever I try to try these novel ideas in my own trading system, I always- ---Loss. Later I found out that many things I read contradicted my ideas. Even if they were not contradictory, they were always more than one time and another. In the end, I simply read only one book-my own. diary.
Reading is only to read with people in the exploratory stage. Later, I discovered that when you are fully familiar with your own thoughts, reading indiscriminately will always make you dizzy. In violation of his original operating discipline, this profession was not learned by reading. Reading can only help you figure out the direction. You have to take the specific path yourself.
Some time ago, someone said that I think about the era of such masters as Livingston. What books are they reading? The answer is that they don't have books, the market is books, and there are many things they can't learn from reading. The most important things are things that you can't learn by reading, discipline and adherence to principles-these are the things of will.
What do I say that I can’t learn by studying? The will to discipline and persistence.
Trading stability and profitability is not as simple as some people think, but it is not as complicated as some people think. People who think more complicated tend to be farther away from the truth. Those who think simple are mostly beginners. A person who has no knowledge of the market and can accumulate a wealth of experience, so that the transaction is simple. It is to walk on the road of truth.
The methods of famous traders are often surprisingly simple. For example, Idexta’s signature dishes are 5 and 20 moving averages, a two-lane crossover system. Dennis’s main thing, the Turtle Law, is that the price hits a new 20-day high to buy, the price hits a new 20-day low to sell, and there are some fund position management methods. A famous trader once said that a truly effective trading method and system can be understood by a 14-year-old boy of normal intelligence.
I take the 5--20 moving average system as an example. When there is a trend in the market, the system can fully grasp more than 75% of the trend. The only problem is that in the market There is no false signal of trend, how do you deal with it, stop loss! It can only be handled with stop loss.
Furthermore, we adhere to a principle in the management of capital positions: There are more positions in profitable transactions than in losing transactions. When the market trend proves to be favorable, actively increase positions. Quickly admit compensation when there is no trend. If you focus completely on this aspect and throw aside all the bottoms, tops, news fundamentals, and news, you are on the right path.
"The Real Rules of the Stock Market" is one of the three stock market books I recommend, the other two are O'Neill's book and Davas' "How I Make 2 Million in the Stock Market". There is a saying in the true rules of the stock market that successful stock investment depends on personal training and does not depend on whether others agree with you. The most important thing is to have a stable, well-founded investment philosophy.
I think everyone should write it on a plaque and hang it in the room, and read it silently before going to bed every day.
No one can be a universal trader, but many inferior traders think so. Every super trader has his own specialties, and he never rushes to other people's fields. Buffett has Buffett’s principles. Even if Nasdaq has risen much, he will not go. Soros has Soros’s principle. He seems to be very uninterested in holding one or two stocks for a long time. Dennis Crocosta and others I only study price patterns and use the trend trading system to capture the long-term trend of prices. It seems that I don't pay much attention to the fundamental economic situation. William focused entirely on the short-term price strength, regardless of the long-term trend, only short-term stock index futures, reaching hundreds of times the rate of return that has never been seen before. O'Rele only cares about the industry growth stocks that have performed the strongest in the past two years, and has made a fortune from such stocks.
Each super player has his own field of expertise and his own set of principles. The fundamental principle is to let profits run, cut losses, and seize opportunities with low risks and high returns. If we feel that we have never been able to enter the ranks of winners, we should think about whether to focus on one or two things? And do these two things best.
Learn to organize transaction records
Our failures will become valuable assets if they are truly utilized. It is actually the cornerstone of our advancement.
To keep a detailed market record, we must pay attention to this simple but effective method. First, we take out all the transaction orders, even if it is horrible, and then write down all the details of each loss transaction- ---Transaction date, currency code, opening price, normal price, transaction reason, matters needing attention, etc. Research and analyze every failed decision, find out the same mistakes repeated many times, and then startPut these mistakes into different categories, such as entering the market too early, over-stressed, holding too long, holding too large, and so on. After completing this work, we will know the reasons for our mistakes and the remedies-we will understand what is the right way to trade.
Then, find out some of the most numerous errors and start to clean up the errors. We will implement strict monitoring and elimination of this type of errors until these errors have completely disappeared, and then we will begin to eliminate the second one. The mistakes made, and so on, when we eliminate these mistakes that harm our trading one by one, profits will come naturally. If you want to patch the computer system and install anti-virus software, the truth is the same.
Through such a process of tracking our mistakes, we will understand what should not be done. As we continue to deny our mistakes, we will be proficient in trading. Don’t ignore this simple transaction. With the actions of the Japanese, with it, our pertinence in dealing with transactions will be greatly strengthened, so as to solve the problem with half the effort. This is the era of efficient trading.
If you want to do good things, you must first sharpen your tools. Lincoln also said that if I spend eight hours cutting down a tree, then I will spend six hours grinding my axe. In foreign exchange trading, this motto can be understood as: research and learning are very important, and the time spent preparing for the transaction exceeds the time spent placing orders and watching the market.
The key technology explained in this article-trading volume
The saying goes: Volume comes first, price comes second. Just such a simple sentence, if you understand it from a different perspective, you will get a different experience. The so-called "horizontal view of the ridge and the side of the peak" is probably here.
Trading volume is a mirror that reflects the popularity of the stock market, the “grain” of the investment market, and the driving force behind price changes. And the price is because of the reflection of the volume, and the volume and price are the fundamentals of the technical side. It can be seen that it has the importance of technical analysis in actual combat. Therefore, many retail investors operate stocks to obtain profits by observing the changes in the trading volume of individual stocks.
Volume is currently considered to be the most true indicator of all indicators. Although the trading volume can still be made by the left hand of the main fund, the trading volume is still the most reliable indicator in the multi-party game market.
Always remember: Capital determines volume, volume determines trend, trend determines ups and downs, and ups and downs determine the fate of investors. The transaction volume corresponds to the transaction amount, that is, "money", as the saying goes: "Money is not everything, no money is absolutely impossible".
Funds are profit-seeking. The rise and fall of a variety are formed by the capital's grasp of the price. Some people fired shots and others shouted cheering. Every process will have funds in it. , The most intuitive embodiment is in the volume.
Guns at the start:
a. Price fluctuations have a unique rhythm, and the volume of transactions will also change with this rhythm. In the price and volume debate, the argument that price comes first seems to have the upper hand. Changes in prices trigger a change in mentality, which ultimately leads to a change in trading volume, which is a matter of course.
b. Resonance: In the process of leading the price upward, the volume can not be over-enlarged, but the volume is reduced and enlarged at the same level. Combining price observation is the most important: when the price falls, the main position does not change, and the volume is shrinking; during the rebound, there is also no volume, which means that there is still no intention to guide the price at this time.
The meaning of volume in 3 different market stages
To understand the meaning behind volume, you need to judge with stock trends. Depending on the situation, the meaning represented by volume is different. Specific analysis of specific circumstances.
1. Upward trend
The shrinking and flat volume under this trend all indicate the reluctance of large funds to sell, and there is an incentive to continue to set new highs. However, it is not a good phenomenon to release the amount of sky, especially when there is a certain increase, it often represents the beginning of a callback, indicating that there is a large capital shipment at this position, at least a short-term callback is needed.
2. Downward trend
Under this trend, the initial heavy volume is not a good thing. The heavy volume decline shows that funds are not optimistic about the stocks, and it is generally the beginning of opening up the downward space; after a period of decline, both volume increase and shrinkage are good things , Except of course the price limit. At this time, heavier volume indicates that funds are beginning to be optimistic and start to enter; shrinking volume indicates that selling is getting less and less, and there is no way down.
3. Oscillating trend
Under this trend, most of the trading volume is invalid. It depends on the trading volume over a period of time. Low volatility and high volume are generally the performance of opening positions; high volatility and high volume are generally the performance of shipments. When breaking the turbulence trend, the success rate with quantity is very high; the success rate without quantity is very low. At the lower edge of the turbulent region, a heavy volume closes the yang, which generally means that the callback is in place and the attack begins; the heavy volume closes the yin to fall and breaks below the lower edge, which generally means the beginning of another decline.
5. The principle of stock selection by trading volume
1. The position of trading volume determines the trend of stock price. After a long-term consolidation, stocks with continuous huge volume and slight increase in stock price can boldly intervene and cannot shrink back.
2. Don't chase stocks that have a huge amount of shares in the high-price zone but have little change in their stock prices.
3. One of the tricks to choosing dark horse stocks is that according to changes in trading volume, stocks that can rise sharply must have a large bottom momentum, otherwise they will not rise sharply. The stronger the bottom momentum, the stronger the rise.
6. Actual trading volume stock selection
1. The bottom volume exceeds the top volume
When the stock price reaches the stage bottom, the volume However, it suddenly and abnormally zoomed in. Compared with the recent time period, the volume of this stock often zoomed in at a speed of several times or more. Compared with the volume at the time of the formation of the head, it also exceeded the volume of the volume at that time. This is "the bottom volume is over the top. "Quantity" phenomenon.
Investors who own such individual stocks should wait and see the changes, waiting for the rise, and currency holders should follow up in time and don't miss the opportunity.
(1) You can buy when you find that the bottom volume far exceeds the top volume.
(2) When the stock price surpasses the previous head moment, you can quickly buy in
2. The after quantity is ahead of the quantity
The emergence of the quantity of after quantity and ahead shows the attitude of the main force to build positions , And the positions continue to increase; the heavier the main position, the more room for the future stock price to rise, otherwise it will not be enough for shipment; as the stock price rises slowly, the stock price actually supported by the subsequent trading volume has exceeded the stock price supported by the previous trading volume, or in other words, The trading volume of the previous stock price has been digested by the trading volume of the higher price later. The hold-up disk has been eliminated and only a stable profit is left, which reduces the resistance to the future rise of the stock price;
As the stock price continues The rise and the continued enlargement of trading volume, the stock price continuously broke through the front neckline, which broadened the upside potential. Since then, the stock price will be higher by one wave!
3. Increase volume after shrinking
When selecting stocks, remove unpopular stocks and downtrend stocks, and select those stocks that have continuously increased in volume and have recently shrunk back to track them. Wait for the stock price to stabilize and re-volume, and When the 5-day moving average and 10-day moving average form a golden cross, you can decisively intervene. Usually the 30-day average of such stocks must still maintain an upward trend.
4. Large overcast volume on the way up
This method should be combined with the candlestick chart. Only when the K line corresponding to the large Yin volume is the small Yin line, can you rest assured to intervene. If the corresponding candlestick chart is a large Yinxian, it means that the power of many parties is too small, and you should pay attention to preventing risks at this time.
5. Land volume and land price
Land volume and land price refer to stocks with very little trading volume. A new low in a period.
Land volume means that the trading volume is the smallest volume since the period. The land price also refers to the new stock price.
If the stock price In the process of continuous decline, there has not been a continuous decline in volume or a phased decline in volume. Then even if the so-called land price appears, it does not mean that the market has bottomed, because the short position The downward energy has not yet been released, and the market is likely to fall subsequently.
Generally speaking, the market has to fall until the bulls completely lose confidence, the downward trend may stop, and the land price will appear. After the amount of land appears, the land price may appear immediately, or it may appear again in the future
6. Low-level and high-volume daily limit
There is always a reason for high-volume. In high-priced areas, some major players tend to increase externally. Send a big sell order at some price points, and then eat it, showing its courage to follow suit. If a big buy order is placed at certain positions, it shows the determination to protect the disk, but these are all illusions, and the real rise and fall of the center of gravity can be distinguished. The weaker low position appears to have increased the amount of knocks, indicating that the institution or the main force is about to pull up a wave of market, and you can choose the opportunity to follow up.
Stock trading experience
1. Learning to give up is definitely correct. One It is only after the stock has gone through the upward channel for several days that it is discovered and recommended by everyone. At this time, you should give up the idea of buying it. Because once it starts to pull back later, it will be adjusted for a week if you are lucky, and a month if you are not lucky. At that time, your mind will be very messy. You can’t calmly judge whether to cut the meat or keep the position. You will collapse after a few times.
2. The trend of stocks has always been to quickly pull the flagpole and then sort the flag. , Good luck is the ascending triangle consolidation, and the bad luck is the descending triangle consolidation. You are sure to be trapped. But then the trend is just the opposite. When finishing to the end of the triangle, the former tends to break downward and the latter tends to break upward. The reason is simple: Deceptive. So if you don’t intervene in ambush immediately before pulling the flagpole, then your first thought after seeing the flagpole is: give up. Give up at this time means you have escaped.
3 . You have to give up on the stocks that public opinion pays attention to. First, public opinion cannot pay attention to positive A stock that is falling (unless it can be shorted), it is worthless to talk about. Second, public opinion must pay attention to stocks that have risen well, so that they can promote their own strength (and everyone has reasons to believe it). As a result, retail investors lost their analysis of this stock in the midst of public opinion, and suppressed it even with a little suspicion. As a result, we can see that the big Yang lines, which are often large in volume, turn out to be heads, which once again proves that the stock market is full of deception.
4. You have to give up on stocks that have not reached the bottom. The trend of some stocks is like "a river of spring water flows eastward", and if you intervene at the bottom of any forecast, it will not be the bottom with hindsight. I think the accuracy of the monthly bottom test is very high. The 20-month moving average can be used as the bull-bear boundary. Any stocks that go below it must be given up. If some stocks have been listed for less than 20 months, you have to give up if you are undecided. This is the importance of the so-called long-term stock selection that I have repeatedly emphasized, and it is also the key reason why everyone will lose in stocks.
5. You have to give up the stocks with scattered chips on the mobile chip distribution chart. Scattered chips means that the main force is not enough to attract chips, and it will still fluctuate, and it is easy to fall back. At this time, you are lucky to participate in the sideways, but if you are not lucky, you will fall and get stuck. Even so, you have already had a nervous breakdown and cut your flesh to run for your life.
6. You have to give up on stocks with poor technical indicators. Some stock graphics seem to have potential, but the quantitative performance indicators are very poor. At this time, you have to trust the quantitative performance indicators and don't be deceived by the appearance of the stock price. If the stock price rises without quantitative support, then you are children who like fairy tales.
7. You have to give up the stocks that have been sharply speculated in the early stage. Even if it has fallen back now, don't touch it. The value of 10 yuan on the left side of the mountain top is different from the 10 yuan value on the right side of the mountain top, and the value of 10 yuan before and after shipment is different. Every time I pick up the goods on the right side of the top of the mountain, I am self-defeating.
8. You think stocks that do not have growth potential in the future should be given up. After your comprehensive judgment, this stock is not growing very well, and then it started to rise, so your own ideas will catch up again, if it falls again, you will regret your original impulse. So don't push down your original thoughts at any time, otherwise you will stop thinking, and you will be pushed down anyway.
I think you have to give up a lot of things, just like the main force giving up 80% and only speculating in 20% stocks, so if you add the above points together to select stocks, you will find that you can’t find a few good stocks. . That's right, in fact, stock trading is like winning prizes, most of themEverything is a need for "obstructive methods".