Last week, the three major negatives hit and the stock market crashed! How should the stock market move this week?
The annual line is a very important horizon, which plays a decisive role in whether the future stock market will rise or fall. After a year of consolidation, a signal appeared, that That is, the deviation rate between the long-term moving average, the medium-term moving average and the short-term moving average is close. At this time, it shows that the average cost of the market tends to be consistent.
The appearance of this signal indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index is about to leave the first stage and begin to enter the second stage. I believe that after the second stage, it can basically be concluded that the bull market has come. After that, the Shanghai Composite Index began to fluctuate upwards. The longer the upward fluctuations lasted, the higher the probability of formation in the second stage.
Moreover, there is a signal in the second stage, that is, the medium and long-term moving average line starts to be stepped under the foot by the K line, and the short-term moving average and the K line start to rise in a bonded manner. Trend, but at this stage, the deviation rate between the K-line and the medium and long-term moving average is not very high.
In contrast to this round of market, the Shanghai Composite Index has entered a rebound cycle from 2440 points. Today, the Shanghai Composite Index closes at 2969 points. If you look closely, you will find that The market in 2013 was very similar. The Shanghai Composite Index suddenly increased in volume, and then broke through the suppression of the medium and long-term moving average.
But after the surge in 2013, the stock market entered a concussion consolidation, and then fell below the annual line again. The magnitude of that wave of rebound happened to be above 20%, which is actually about the same as the magnitude of the bottom of this wave.
In fact, history is always surprisingly similar. No matter how the stock market changes, there is nothing new under the sun, because history will repeat itself, and the stock market is even more so. In this way, investors can open the K-line chart to study the historical trend, and they will find some clues.
Moreover, this is the signal to enter the first stage, but in the 2013 wave of market, there is obviously a consolidation interval that has maintained a year. This consolidation The interval is the main buying area and the first stage of the conversion of funds and chips. Therefore, the stock market still lacks a consolidation area.
Therefore, the author believes that the next step The market here may be dominated by shock consolidation, and at the same time slowly entering the second stage of the bull market, but last week, there were three major bad news hits, causing the stock market to show a downward trend.
First of all,
Last week, the further liberalization of stock index futures
measures may be introduced this year, This is not good news for the stock market, but bad news, because stock index futures were once restricted from trading during the stock market crash, and once trading resumes, the stock market will have a short-selling mechanism. There is not much short-selling mechanism in the above market, so previously A-shares can only profit through the spread, so after the stock index futures are liberalized, then A-shares will have a short-selling mechanism again.
Secondly, at this critical moment, leveraged funds have come again, but this time the leveraged funds are not allotment, but the illegal influx of credit funds. The bank has punished it. In fact, this is a warning to the market.
So far, it is still unknown how many credit funds have poured into the stock market in violation of regulations, but To be sure, once the stock market drops, this risk will also be released.
Finally, many listed companies issued risk warning announcements. It can be seen that as the stock market enters the rebound cycle, no Few listed companies have seen their stock prices rise, but at this time, many listed companies feel that their stock prices are too high.
Therefore, these listed companies have issued risk warning announcements to remind investors of related risks. Therefore, it was the three major bad news that hit last week. Caused the stock market to crash.
As for the trend of the stock market this week, the author believes that the Shanghai Composite Index has just entered the first stage. In the first stage, the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to consolidate in a volatile manner. the Lord.