Source: Xiaobaidu Finance
In the past week, Chinese investors have been happier than the holidays. With the establishment of a bull market, what could be happier than this?
But there is a potential problem. The continuous turnover of A-shares exceeds 1.5 trillion yuan. Can it survive this long-term?
When there is someone in the night, this is actually One reason, even if he agrees, will his body agree?
I have been trading in stocks for 15 years and have experienced many rounds of bull-bear conversion. I know what a bull market is like?
The advent of a bull market will surely sprout quietly in despair, gradually rise in the process of everyone’s hesitation, and then end in madness. Only this kind of stock market will become a long bull. .
Now, it seems that the bull market has just begun to climax. Isn’t it a bit early?
Of course, the rise in China’s stock market is not without reason. On the contrary, the reason is very good.
China’s stock market has been undervalued for a long time, especially when the world is under the epidemic, and the Chinese economy has begun to recover, and this relative valuation advantage has become more obvious.
Let's take the United States as an example.
The US economic data in June made the Trump team very happy. Unemployment data has fallen sharply. However, the mutation of the virus and the second outbreak of the epidemic will have a great impact on the US economy. Hit hard. Under this circumstance, the fact that U.S. stocks can stand tall can only show that the U.S. stocks bubble is serious, and that it will be sooner or later that U.S. stocks will bearish.
For the Chinese stock market, the rise must be With loose liquidity, let's look at the Chinese stock market. In fact, from the perspective of the central bank, the central bank has been passively shrinking its balance sheet.
Last week, 490 billion reverse repurchases expired, and the central bank did not carry out corresponding operations. This week, another 190 billion reverse repurchases expired, and the central bank did not operate accordingly. It is equivalent to 680 billion yuan of funds returned by the central bank in two weeks. In this case, the stock market is still able to rise, which only shows that the stock market is not lacking in liquidity.
Part of the liquidity comes from northbound funds. As of the end of June, northbound funds have reached 138.3 billion.
The other part of the funds came from the transfer of money funds . Due to the drop in the risk-free interest rates of various baby funds and the boom in the stock market, many funds were transferred out of monetary funds and entered the stock market.
Of course, a considerable part of the funds comes from savings and relocation. China has 80 trillion in savings, and these savings funds run out of the bank 1%, which is nearly a trillion in funds.
In short, the current stock market is not short of funds.
However, under the premise of no shortage of liquidity in the stock market, inter-bank lending rates have begun to rise gradually. This shows that the cost of borrowing funds between banks is constantly increasing. This also paved the way for the funding tensions after entering August.
The Chinese stock market can rise, not only has a valuation The reason for the restoration is also due to the recovery of the Chinese economy, especially after the release of the PMI data in June, which further strengthened investors’ confidence in entering the stock market. In June, the comprehensive PMI reached 54.2%, higher than the previous month. The manufacturing PMI reached 50.9%, and the non-manufacturing PMI reached 54.4%.
Since this year, the central bank has given great support to the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises.
Currently, RMB loans have been Reached 10.3 trillion yuan, far exceeding the same period last year. The average interest rate of loans to small and micro businesses is also falling, and the growth rate of loans to small and micro businesses is also rising.
However, the central bank The increase in loans to small and micro enterprises has also indirectly contributed to the rise of Shenzhen’s stock market.
Some small and micro enterprises in Shenzhen buy houses with full funds and then use these houses as mortgages for low-interest loans. , These people use the policy to tilt arbitrage, which is really hateful.After the above analysis, the opening of this bull market seems a bit strange, and the duration of the bull market is also not reassuring. For ordinary investors, there is no shame in enjoying the feast of bubbles. After all, the word bubble is not a derogatory term. However, before the bubble bursts, it is also a question whether ordinary stockholders can get out of their bodies.
This bull market is led by brokers and may enter the industry round later. This also tests the stock picking ability of stockholders. If the stock picks are improper, it is also possible to miss a round of stock market rise.
Label group:[stock market]